The case for Rudy Gay to the Raptors: Heisley speaks to rumours (277)

[SKD]

This isn't really surprising. Gay to the Raps for any of the mentioned packages is more of a pipe dream than a realistic one. It's hard to think the Grizz would rather pay out big money to OJ Mayo than keep Gay alone, especially the way he played in his first playoff series. At times being the only Grizzly that could pull a made basket out of thin air.

I like OJ and all, but if the Grizz have to pick, OJ is out the door. The Raps really have no assets that would help the Grizz go deeper into the playoffs.

Iguodala is more realistic, maybe Josh Smith (though I don't know if teams actually want him, with his jumpshot happy-self), there's not a ton of options this year with SF's. Batum will be retained, any good young SF will cost more than the Raps realistically have to offer.

[Matt52]

This isn't really surprising. Gay to the Raps for any of the mentioned packages is more of a pipe dream than a realistic one. It's hard to think the Grizz would rather pay out big money to OJ Mayo than keep Gay alone, especially the way he played in his first playoff series. At times being the only Grizzly that could pull a made basket out of thin air.

I like OJ and all, but if the Grizz have to pick, OJ is out the door. The Raps really have no assets that would help the Grizz go deeper into the playoffs.

Iguodala is more realistic, maybe Josh Smith (though I don't know if teams actually want him, with his jumpshot happy-self), there's not a ton of options this year with SF's. Batum will be retained, any good young SF will cost more than the Raps realistically have to offer.

What they do with the cap space created by trading Gay to the Raptors is the assets that would help the Grizz go deeper in the playoffs.

[SKD]

Without checking the hard numbers, I'm guessing that between Randolph who's at 15ish mill/yr, Gasol at 10+mill, then Conley at 10ish/yr, Mayo looking for a similar payout, they're basically at the soft cap threshold without Gay. So basically they either don't sign Mayo and gain another player this year or keep Mayo and have no real softcap room left.

Truth be told there's not many good SG/SF's out there that would be a better option than Mayo for their system. And most ala Gordon/Batum are both RFA.

Cap space could help, but at this point, they'd be better off re-signing Mayo and moving him for quality talent then ridding themselves of Gay. As was mentioned in a yahoo article I read, this isn't a team really on the market for draft picks, as they're looking to go into the 2nd round and beyond with their current core.

It's hard to see them moving Gay as a salary dump, and any actual players we have don't really have the polished skills they'd want to push them further.

[Matt52]

Without checking the hard numbers, I'm guessing that between Randolph who's at 15ish mill/yr, Gasol at 10+mill, then Conley at 10ish/yr, Mayo looking for a similar payout, they're basically at the soft cap threshold without Gay. So basically they either don't sign Mayo and gain another player this year or keep Mayo and have no real softcap room left.

Truth be told there's not many good SG/SF's out there that would be a better option than Mayo for their system. And most ala Gordon/Batum are both RFA.

Cap space could help, but at this point, they'd be better off re-signing Mayo and moving him for quality talent then ridding themselves of Gay. As was mentioned in a yahoo article I read, this isn't a team really on the market for draft picks, as they're looking to go into the 2nd round and beyond with their current core.

It's hard to see them moving Gay as a salary dump, and any actual players we have don't really have the polished skills they'd want to push them further.

Go look at the hard numbers and qualifying offers.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/memphis-grizzlies-team-salary

Then remember Heisley said they would not pay luxury tax.

[SKD]

So I did. And if they re-sign Arthur, Speights and Mayo at their qualifying offers, which would be best case scenario for the Grizz salary wise, they're still 16-17 mill over the soft cap. Losing Gay just puts them borderline at the cap, not actually giving them real live cap space to play with (as in enough money to sign an impact player).

Chances are they re-sign at least Speights and Arthur because they'd be silly not to. Mayo they need coming off the bench, but will probably have to pay a bit more if they want to keep him, and a lot more money will go his way if Gay is moved, as he'll be in a better situation leverage wise.

[SKD]

Then remember Heisley said they would not pay luxury tax.

I just re-read this line. Truthfully you gotta think they let Mayo walk before they move Gay, if the luxury tax is the big issue. They've attempted to trade Mayo for mediocre talent before, I'm not sold on them feeling like he's worth the money, especially if it's a decision between the two... y'know?

[The Coach]

A lot of good points made here themasao, but I have some counter thoughts for argument's sake.

Can we pause to put some things in perspective?

For the life of me, I just can't understand all the warmongering and gnashing of teeth about "scrapping the plan after 1 year." For starters, don't give me this bull about "we've only been rebuilding for 1 year." We have been crap and we have been accumulating the according dividends of crappyness for several years now.

We have been crap for several years now, unfortunately, this does not mean that the "rebuild" plan began several years back. If you look at the trade that fell through (Chandler, Diaw) it was apparent that the management was not in full rebuild mode. This was the first year that Colangelo admitted to being in rebuild mode... last year he called it something different, I think "retooling".

Secondly, what is meant by scrapping the plan?? As Chisholm notes (in a fantastic article btw -- thanks Matt) you HAVE to make a move at some point, you just have to. There is no such thing as a purely sedentary team that just accumulates lottery pick after lottery pick indefinitely until it all of a sudden jumps from the slum of the league to the conference title. There is a middle ground, and unless you are the Miami Heat or the Boston Celtics you MUST traverse it. Hence acquiring a significant upgrade in talent by leveraging something other than, or in addition to, talent (its worth noting, anecdotally, that there is a reason why BC is always so damn smug when he talks about his flexibility this off-season, and the assets he has to work with -- guess what? They're one and the same thing. As nice as it is to think of JJ and Amir as significant assets, they really aren't; it's our ability to eat up salary that is currently most valuable to other teams - read: Memphis.)

Where did JJ and Amir come from? TRADES. One was even acquired for a first round draft pick. I recognize that making moves is imperative (and Colangelo is no slouch in this department); however, more important than this is timing... knowing when to hold them and when to fold them.
According to the last Raptor Republic poll on franchise players, JV is the guy that best fits the franchise player tag... and he is only 20 years old and has NEVER played a game in the NBA. You know what this tells me... our team's best chances at success is not a year or two away... it is at least 3 or 4 years away. If the 8th pick is traded away in this deep draft, I believe it will come back to haunt us when we are a playoff contender.

Does improving to an average or above average team with the acquisition of Gay (I'll leave it at just Gay for the sake of argument - needless to say though, his acquisition certainly doesn't preclude more moves) mean we are doomed to mediocrity? I certainly don't think so. First, each of our core players has room to improve over the next few years, second, our draft picks aren't going anywhere, so if we are in fact middle of the pack and not superb next year, we still get a reasonable asset - some of you are making it out to sound like we're creating a self-imposed life long ban on drafting by trading ONE draft pick. Third, while we won't have tons of money to sign people next year (not that we'd have tons if we stayed the course either, things get interesting for everyone next year cap-wise) we'll have enough (e.g. MLE), but more importantly, we'll have a team worth coming to. No one wants to sign with a team gunning for their 7th consecutive lottery pick.

Ultimately, right now we have a chance to leverage a temporary asset for something real and significant, partly due to our circumstances and partly due to Memphis'. If we let this pass, I think we'll find ourselves in a much worse position, not just in the short term, but the long term as well.

To those of you wanting to "stay the course": what is the course? Not just in method, but in result. What do you realistically see for this team's future if it doesn't make a move this summer? Personally, I see something like the Kings or Wolves, with a little more discipline and a little less talent, and it doesn't look pretty.

Although very limited, our success and excitement has come from the draft (Camby, Stoudamire, Carter, McGrady, Bosh) and not from "big" free agent signings (Turk - and yes he was the big fish that summer) or trades (Hibbert gone for ONeal, Carter for scraps, etc.). I realize this is an over-simplified view of the Raps history and it's absolutely necessary to have trades, drafts, and free agent signings to build a contender. As well, the fan in me would love to see the Raps make trades and put together a fun team next year.. just like the year Colangelo came in and restructured this team in one year to get us into the playoffs; however, that didn't last long and I don't see a San Antonio Spurs type of dynasty beginning with trading away a very valuable pick for a player of Rudy Gay's skill level. If Lillard happens to be sitting at the 8th pick and we have traded it away, I think we will have regretted it by the time JV, our franchise player, is a major contributor.

I know there are no guarantees in the draft and that the 8th pick could be a bust, but not every proven NBA player is a guarantee either. We have had our share of proven talent join our team and end up being a huge disappointment. I am an optimist and can always be sold on hope... that bias gives me a bent towards this year's draft, rather than a player like Gay, who we already have a pretty good idea of... a guy that's team has arguably been more successful without him.

Themasao, there have been many days in the last few months that I would have written something very similar to your post, and I may totally agree next week... but today I am more excited about the draft and JV than any name that has realistically been thrown around in the last few weeks... barring James Harden.

[Matt52]

So I did. And if they re-sign Arthur, Speights and Mayo at their qualifying offers, which would be best case scenario for the Grizz salary wise, they're still 16-17 mill over the soft cap. Losing Gay just puts them borderline at the cap, not actually giving them real live cap space to play with (as in enough money to sign an impact player).

Chances are they re-sign at least Speights and Arthur because they'd be silly not to. Mayo they need coming off the bench, but will probably have to pay a bit more if they want to keep him, and a lot more money will go his way if Gay is moved, as he'll be in a better situation leverage wise.

And that puts them $8-9M over the luxury tax ($70.3M) which means another bill of $8-9M next year so their true salary comes out to around $87-88M - plus they lose out on revenue sharing.

[Matt52]

I just re-read this line. Truthfully you gotta think they let Mayo walk before they move Gay, if the luxury tax is the big issue. They've attempted to trade Mayo for mediocre talent before, I'm not sold on them feeling like he's worth the money, especially if it's a decision between the two... y'know?

Mayo had a rough final round - no doubt.

However, he was a good option off the bench for the majority of the year.

If Mayo goes, who is scoring off the bench? You need a strong second unit to go deep in the playoffs. And then don't forget the backup PG and C.

The Grizz did go to 7 games in the second round without Gay.

[Bendit]

Re Mayo, reading some posts on a Grizz site I understand that coach Hollins was reducing his mins and had him on the bench at crucial times in the LAC series. Mayo really wants out of Memphis and thinks of himself as a starter (Allen is starting) and even a PG apparently (maybe he is pushing this idea to make his conditions to stay a bit difficult). What is adding to this is he didnt have a particularly good season and a worse shooting playoffs. Which gets me thinking......(he is a RFA and the Grizz may not match).

[Bendit]

For anyone wanting to OD on some more Gay talk:

http://www.straightouttavancouver.co...ba-trades-2012

It's a compendium of the thoughts of those running their NBA blogs on SBNation re interest and offers for Gay.

[Mapko]

The issue I see including DeRozan is it does nothing to address their 3 point shooting woes.

It also puts the Grizzlies in a similar situation as trading for Tyreke Evans - both guys are looking for an extension that could put the Grizzlies back in the same financial situation next summer.

With Evans they would be buying 1 valuable year. Not a problem. Problem might be Maloofs who are broke & likely will not want any part of Gay's $53+ mil contract. Knowing they are desperate, no way I give them DD, Ed our 8th & whatever (unless Mayo comes back, thus Mayo for DD plus original deal).

[Matt52]

With Evans they would be buying 1 valuable year. Not a problem. Problem might be Mallofs who are broke & likely will not want any part of Gay's $53+ mil contract. Knowing they are desperate, no way I give them DD, Ed our 8th & whatever (unless Mayo comes back, thus Mayo for DD plus original deal).

I agree. I also said this in the original post.

Sacramento is the team - other than Toronto that makes the most sense - to trade for Rudy Gay. They have cap space to take on his contract, a high draft pick (#5), and a young player (Tyreke Evans) to send back. I do see problems for both sides though. For Memphis, Tyreke Evans is going to be looking to get PAID next year. That puts them back in a similar situation they are already in - especially if he has a return to rookie season production. For Sacramento, ownership is in a bitter battle that will likely end in relocation of the franchise and ownership is also suffering financially. Could Sacramento take on Gay and his $54M contract over the next 3 years?

[Matt52]

For anyone wanting to OD on some more Gay talk:

http://www.straightouttavancouver.co...ba-trades-2012

It's a compendium of the thoughts of those running their NBA blogs on SBNation re interest and offers for Gay.

Minnesota is really interesting. I had not thought of that before.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMa...radeId=7mfdurs

Last year's #2 in Derrick Williams (new SF), Ridnour (back up PG), Miller (only $500k guaranteed, alreasy announced retirement - financial flexibility), and #18.

*EDIT*

If memory serves correct it was the Wolves who put the pressure on the Grizz to sign Gay to the max contract - if the Grizz didn't the Wolves would.

[Mapko]

Minnesota is really interesting. I had not thought of that before.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMa...radeId=7mfdurs

Last year's #2 in Derrick Williams (new SF), Ridnour (back up PG), Miller (only $500k guaranteed, alreasy announced retirement - financial flexibility), and #18.

*EDIT*

If memory serves correct it was the Wolves who put the pressure on the Grizz to sign Gay to the max contract - if the Grizz didn't the Wolves would.

In essence: D Williams & No 18 vs Ed Davis & No 8. Toss up. We win because they likely will not deal with Minnie (Western team, plus a team that "forced them" to max Gay.

[LBF]

I don't know about that. Williams is possibly a better replacement than Gay is a player.

[ceez]

Um

[Sig]

Um

Indeed.

[Quirk]

Gay is better than Kleiza and JJohnson, but not that much. JJ's numbers advanced stats (i.e. TS%, WP48) look not so different from Gay's in his first 3 years. Not saying that means he will be as good as Gay in 2 years, but for a max player I'd want a little more significant an upgrade that that, he's nowhere near the level of Igoudala or Kirilenko, if they're in play, for instance. Would way prefer Batum or just sticking with what we have and seeing if JJ can take another step forward rather than getting Gay.

For comparison:

- http://bit.ly/N27WNv
- http://www.thenbageek.com/players/403-andrei-kirilenko
- http://bit.ly/KuGhO7 <-- click on the "career" tab here.

[AlienOverlord]

I'd also like to hang on to JJ. Last year he really started to play within himself on offense and his defense continued to be amazing. I think he's very efficient for his salary. I have no problem giving up Davis because we have too many PFs and he'd likely be more enticing than Amir because of Amir's bigger contract.

Ideally I'd like to see us get Gay without giving up our pick and while holding on to JJ, DD, AB and JV. This is unlikely, in which case I say we just keep the pick and look to free agency to further improve the team.