The case for Rudy Gay to the Raptors: Heisley speaks to rumours (277)

[jrdyck]

If another team were to come up with a better offer, one way we could potentially sweeten our deal would be to include Calderon (expiring) in return for Conley or Mayo (in S&T). Whether Memphis sees this as an upgrade or not is debatable, but if they'd really like a Gasol-Calderon pairing, it might tip the scales.

Something like this might be more attractive:

E.Davis / Calderon / J.Johnson / #8 pick
-----for-----
Gay / Conley

EDIT: This still saves Memphis $7-8M in the short-term, and saves them even more after next year (Conley's 5 yrs at ~$8M per), assuming they can re-sign Jose or another PG for cheaper.

[MangoKid]

If another team were to come up with a better offer, one way we could potentially sweeten our deal would be to include Calderon (expiring) in return for Conley or Mayo (in S&T). Whether Memphis sees this as an upgrade or not is debatable, but if they'd really like a Gasol-Calderon pairing, it might tip the scales.

Something like this might be more attractive:

E.Davis / Calderon / J.Johnson / #8 pick
-----for-----
Gay / Conley

EDIT: This still saves Memphis $7-8M in the short-term, and saves them even more after next year (Conley's 5 years).

Sorry man, that's horrible (from a Memphis standpoint). Davis/Calderon/Johnson/#8 pick alone probably isn't enough to land Rudy Gay in a Raptors uniform.

[Matt52]

I understood that for your original post but wanted to be the devils advocate. You have made some good points and I would like Gay in Toronto but there a quite a few players under contract that cases could be made for (sticking to SFs - JSmith [for financial flexibility - semi-rebuild], WChandler [playing behind gallo], WMathews, DWilliams [if beasley is resigned])

A lot of these points could be duplicated in a "The case for Loul Deng to Raps" with Rose contract kicking in, boozer and noah already getting big pay cheques and an early exit this year. Omer needs to be signed and they are now targeting kidd/nash http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap...In_Free_Agency

BC has always been interested in Deng and he has a more reasonable contract - since they are looking for pg help Calderon may fit that need

It gets complicated trying to create potential trade scenarios and whether the other team would need/want our assets without a rumour of those players being on the trading block or assumed value

A case could be made for just about any player. Taking BC's comments about a big off season, financial difficulties in Memphis, and the need for a star wing in Toronto, I think Gay is a fairly credible case to make. Chandler and Matthews (who I absolutely love as a role player) are not near good enough to call BIG. Beasley back to Minnesota does not seem likely given they were prepared to send him to LA at the deadline (Lakers said no in the end) plus Williams has not proven to be a legit SF. Josh Smith is another tweener of which the Raptors have a few (although none near his talent) and he does not solve the problem of a wing who can create his own shot.

As for Deng, I was not aware BC has always been interested in him. In 2010, supposedly, BC felt that his contract was too big and wouldn't take Deng back as part of a sign and trade with the Bulls for Bosh.

Raptors look at sign-and-trade options

The Toronto Raptors have talked to six to eight teams willing to do sign-and-trades for Chris Bosh, but front office sources say general manager Bryan Colangelo has ruled out bringing back the expensive contract of Bulls forward Luol Deng.

Deng has four years and nearly $50 million left on his contract, and the Bulls have been dangling him as part of sign-and-trade possibilities involving Bosh, LeBron James and Joe Johnson.

Colangelo is working on possible deals, but Bosh ultimately has to want to go to the teams. Besides Chicago, Miami, New York and New Jersey, the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks are determined suitors for Bosh.

– Adrian Wojnarowski, June 30, 5:45 ET

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_yl...gentbuzz063010

The difference between comparing Deng in Chicago and Gay in Memphis is Chicago is a large market, Memphis is small. Memphis owner is dead set against going in to the tax, Chicago is unknown. Also, an ACL injury to their best player is the reason why Chicago went out early - and barely at that.

Deng also has a known back issue and a wrist that needs surgery (which he is putting off to participate in the Olympics).


In the end, no one knows what is going to happen but it is sure fun speculating.

[jrdyck]

Sorry man, that's horrible (from a Memphis standpoint). Davis/Calderon/Johnson/#8 pick alone probably isn't enough to land Rudy Gay in a Raptors uniform.

Are you sure? That gives Memphis a LOT of depth compared to what they have now, AND gets them away from the luxury tax (long-term), AND gets them a lottery pick. Maybe they aren't willing to give up Conley, but you can't tell me they wouldn't give it a good look.

[MangoKid]

Are you sure? That gives Memphis a LOT of depth compared to what they have now, AND gets them away from the luxury tax (long-term), AND gets them a lottery pick. Maybe they aren't willing to give up Conley, but you can't tell me they wouldn't give it a good look.

I can tell you that they wouldn't give it a good look. Like I said in a previous post....

Johnson had a run in with his coach and was benched, Davis somewhat regressed and the #8 pick, well, the Raptors already made it known that they would seriously entertain offers for it if it weren't in the top-3.

I don't think the inclusion of Calderon puts that offer over the top.

On the other hand, Charlotte could offer the #2 pick, Gerald Henderson (and/or Byron Mullens) and DJ Augustin - which is a significantly better offer.

[Matt52]

I can tell you that they wouldn't give it a good look. Like I said in a previous post....



I don't think the inclusion of Calderon puts that offer over the top.

On the other hand, Charlotte could offer the #2 pick, Gerald Henderson (and/or Byron Mullens) and DJ Augustin - which is a significantly better offer.

DJ would have to agree to a sign and trade. He is a RFA.

[jrdyck]

I can tell you that they wouldn't give it a good look. Like I said in a previous post....



I don't think the inclusion of Calderon puts that offer over the top.

On the other hand, Charlotte could offer the #2 pick, Gerald Henderson (and/or Byron Mullens) and DJ Augustin - which is a significantly better offer.

No they couldn't. Salaries don't match, and Charlotte can't absorb Gay's contract with Diop and Thomas on the payroll. Granted they could throw in Maggette, but even so, after all that it would leave them with Kemba, Biyombo, Gay, and a crapload of really lousy players. They look much better going forward with Kemba, Biyombo, Henderson, Augustin, Maggette, MKG/Robinson (at least IMO).

Man this trading thing is tough.

[Matt52]

No they couldn't. Salaries don't match, and Charlotte can't absorb Gay's contract with Diop and Thomas on the payroll. Granted they could throw in Maggette, but even so, after all that it would leave them with Kemba, Biyombo, Gay, and a crapload of really lousy players. They look much better going forward with Kemba, Biyombo, Henderson, Augustin, Maggette, MKG/Robinson (at least IMO).

Good eye.

I forgot all about the money side. It could work if Augustin was signed and traded for $10M.

[MangoKid]

I just threw arbitrary names and salaries out there, but good on the super sleuths for figuring out that it wouldn't match up. At any rate, Toronto's shit for a borderline all-star just wouldn't work. I hope it would work, but I'm not that much of a wishful thinker.

[connected]

In the end, no one knows what is going to happen but it is sure fun speculating.

weird I honestly thought BC was interested in Deng and I have no idea how/why I had that idea

Alright, I'm sold Gay or bust lol -- I do enjoy the speculation and the idea of having a dynamic borderline allstar at the 3

my only qualm if it were to happen is at his pay scale we would be anointing him our franchise player, which he isn't really one of those handful of players. The idea that raptors always have to overpay players to play here won't make us a championship team. We would have kiss our chance of signing Dwight next year goodbye (joking)

[Matt52]

weird I honestly thought BC was interested in Deng and I have no idea how/why I had that idea

Alright, I'm sold Gay or bust lol -- I do enjoy the speculation and the idea of having a dynamic borderline allstar at the 3

my only qualm if it were to happen is at his pay scale we would be anointing him our franchise player, which he isn't really one of those handful of players. The idea that raptors always have to overpay players to play here won't make us a championship team. We would have kiss our chance of signing Dwight next year goodbye (joking)

I'm not sure having a max player automatically anoints you a franchise player. It certainly does in the eyes of the fans but fans are hardly rational in their expectations. Gay will always get a pass here due to Bargnani. I think there is potential for Gay to 'earn' his contract under Casey.

Gay's contract is very large, however, regardless of if they get him or not, this will be the last summer with any cap space for quite some time as things stand now. The Raptors have $35M in salaries for 2013-14 (assuming Kleiza picks up his option and including #8 and JV) then they have $20M in cap holds to DeMar and JJ (unless they make them unrestricted) and another $15M cap hold for Calderon (although it is likely if not traded he is let to become unrestricted). This does not take in to consideration any free agent the Raptors might sign this year. So assuming Calderon walks and no free agents signed beyond 12-13 the Raptors have $3M in cap space for next summer.

Considering the Raptors are going to be limited to exceptions and minimum contracts after this year, adding Gay's massive contract is not a concern for me. Is it ideal? No. But as long as no one else is making $16M it is certainly manageable.

[Miekenstien]

weird I honestly thought BC was interested in Deng and I have no idea how/why I had that idea

Alright, I'm sold Gay or bust lol -- I do enjoy the speculation and the idea of having a dynamic borderline allstar at the 3

my only qualm if it were to happen is at his pay scale we would be anointing him our franchise player, which he isn't really one of those handful of players. The idea that raptors always have to overpay players to play here won't make us a championship team. We would have kiss our chance of signing Dwight next year goodbye (joking)

i like gays value a lot more than amare or johnsons.

[ceez]

id love to get rudy gay if it didn't mean our pick this year (next years plus demar and ed? or something?) however he's the only semi realistically available player id be willing to part with our pick for. i will fume if they flip it for Granger or Iguodala.

i said it before but i'd want to flip picks if the deal happened. maybe harkless falls? wroten as a developmental dude? iunno.

[themasao]

I just threw arbitrary names and salaries out there, but good on the super sleuths for figuring out that it wouldn't match up. At any rate, Toronto's shit for a borderline all-star just wouldn't work. I hope it would work, but I'm not that much of a wishful thinker.

My initial reaction to hearing trade proposals involving guys like Johnson & Davis for guys like Gay is the same: it sounds, as you aptly put it, like Toronto's shit for borderline all-stars. BUT, I think particularly in the last half decade or so (and maybe longer) transactions have become much more sensitive to circumstances. If you look at the face value of a number of trades that have gone down over the past few years (Gasol to L.A and Paul to the Clippers obviously come to mind, and of course, lest we forget, Wince to N.J) few of them make any sense at all from a pure talent perspective. In fact, when a big name player is being traded, you're probably going to have an uneven deal more often than not.

All this is just to say that the fact that the talent on both sides of the deal doesn't add up, shouldn't, on its own, preclude the viability of the deal. There are too many other variables at play (in this case, mostly financial ones).

And to put it in perspective, here are two deals that share some similarities with the one Matt proposed:

1) Nene to the Wizards for Javale McGee and Ronny Turiaf. I've simplified this a bit, it was a three team deal that also involved Nick Young going to the Clippers, and some garbage coming back to Washington in return. The important and relevant part of this deal though, is the "big" name (ok fine, not thaat big) getting shipped out for a young player and cap relief in a case, essentially, of buyers remorse. Denver signed Nene to a big contract, got cold feet, and shipped him away for less talent, but also less salary.

2) Michael Jordan's much maligned vetoing of Chandler and Diaw to Toronto for Calderon and Reggie Evans. Forget the fact that it didn't actually happen (it's not like Jordan didn't go and dump Chandler anyways -- he got Matt Carroll, Erick Dampier and Eduardo Nájera in the end). While its not a perfect analogy, I do see Gay as being at a similar point in his career to the one Chandler was at before he got traded by the Bobcat's. The potential was there, the production was there, but so was the inconsistency and the owners seeming unwillingness to fork over the big bucks (Seems like Jordan and Heisley might be similar in that regard).

The first case is a proven example of the power of buyers remorse, the second is a proven example of a talented up and coming player getting dumped for financial reasons. (Footnote RE: up and coming -- granted Chandler was like 27 at the time, but Gay is 26 now. I think we can agree Chandler has been on an upward trajectory since playing for Charlotte).

Anyways, I think its obvious that I am on the Gay to Toronto bandwagon. Prima facie, Johnson, Davis and #8 doesn't sound like enough to make it happen, but ancillary circumstances can make a world of difference, especially when money is tight.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

My initial reaction to hearing trade proposals involving guys like Johnson & Davis for guys like Gay is the same: it sounds, as you aptly put it, like Toronto's shit for borderline all-stars. BUT, I think particularly in the last half decade or so (and maybe longer) transactions have become much more sensitive to circumstances. If you look at the face value of a number of trades that have gone down over the past few years (Gasol to L.A and Paul to the Clippers obviously come to mind, and of course, lest we forget, Wince to N.J) few of them make any sense at all from a pure talent perspective. In fact, when a big name player is being traded, you're probably going to have an uneven deal more often than not.

All this is just to say that the fact that the talent on both sides of the deal doesn't add up, shouldn't, on its own, preclude the viability of the deal. There are too many other variables at play (in this case, mostly financial ones).

And to put it in perspective, here are two deals that share some similarities with the one Matt proposed:

1) Nene to the Wizards for Javale McGee and Ronny Turiaf. I've simplified this a bit, it was a three team deal that also involved Nick Young going to the Clippers, and some garbage coming back to Washington in return. The important and relevant part of this deal though, is the "big" name (ok fine, not thaat big) getting shipped out for a young player and cap relief in a case, essentially, of buyers remorse. Denver signed Nene to a big contract, got cold feet, and shipped him away for less talent, but also less salary.

2) Michael Jordan's much maligned vetoing of Chandler and Diaw to Toronto for Calderon and Reggie Evans. Forget the fact that it didn't actually happen (it's not like Jordan didn't go and dump Chandler anyways -- he got Matt Carroll, Erick Dampier and Eduardo Nájera in the end). While its not a perfect analogy, I do see Gay as being at a similar point in his career to the one Chandler was at before he got traded by the Bobcat's. The potential was there, the production was there, but so was the inconsistency and the owners seeming unwillingness to fork over the big bucks (Seems like Jordan and Heisley might be similar in that regard).

The first case is a proven example of the power of buyers remorse, the second is a proven example of a talented up and coming player getting dumped for financial reasons. (Footnote RE: up and coming -- granted Chandler was like 27 at the time, but Gay is 26 now. I think we can agree Chandler has been on an upward trajectory since playing for Charlotte).

Anyways, I think its obvious that I am on the Gay to Toronto bandwagon. Prima facie, Johnson, Davis and #8 doesn't sound like enough to make it happen, but ancillary circumstances can make a world of difference, especially when money is tight.

I agree with your assessment, but given that other teams are likely to chase Gay for the same reason (ie: Golden State offering #7 pick as a starting point), I think it will take more. I keep coming back to #8 pick & DeRozan & JJ & Amir/Davis for Gay & #25. By giving up DeRozan, that would go a long way towards making the talent level match. JJ and Amir/Davis would provide upgraded depth on the 2nd unit. I don't think Goldent State would be able to offer equal value, unless they included Curry or Clay Thompson (or if Memphis coveted one of GS's really bad contracts - Bogut, Lee, Jefferson or Biedrins).

[Matt52]

My initial reaction to hearing trade proposals involving guys like Johnson & Davis for guys like Gay is the same: it sounds, as you aptly put it, like Toronto's shit for borderline all-stars. BUT, I think particularly in the last half decade or so (and maybe longer) transactions have become much more sensitive to circumstances. If you look at the face value of a number of trades that have gone down over the past few years (Gasol to L.A and Paul to the Clippers obviously come to mind, and of course, lest we forget, Wince to N.J) few of them make any sense at all from a pure talent perspective. In fact, when a big name player is being traded, you're probably going to have an uneven deal more often than not.

All this is just to say that the fact that the talent on both sides of the deal doesn't add up, shouldn't, on its own, preclude the viability of the deal. There are too many other variables at play (in this case, mostly financial ones).

And to put it in perspective, here are two deals that share some similarities with the one Matt proposed:

1) Nene to the Wizards for Javale McGee and Ronny Turiaf. I've simplified this a bit, it was a three team deal that also involved Nick Young going to the Clippers, and some garbage coming back to Washington in return. The important and relevant part of this deal though, is the "big" name (ok fine, not thaat big) getting shipped out for a young player and cap relief in a case, essentially, of buyers remorse. Denver signed Nene to a big contract, got cold feet, and shipped him away for less talent, but also less salary.

2) Michael Jordan's much maligned vetoing of Chandler and Diaw to Toronto for Calderon and Reggie Evans. Forget the fact that it didn't actually happen (it's not like Jordan didn't go and dump Chandler anyways -- he got Matt Carroll, Erick Dampier and Eduardo Nájera in the end). While its not a perfect analogy, I do see Gay as being at a similar point in his career to the one Chandler was at before he got traded by the Bobcat's. The potential was there, the production was there, but so was the inconsistency and the owners seeming unwillingness to fork over the big bucks (Seems like Jordan and Heisley might be similar in that regard).

The first case is a proven example of the power of buyers remorse, the second is a proven example of a talented up and coming player getting dumped for financial reasons. (Footnote RE: up and coming -- granted Chandler was like 27 at the time, but Gay is 26 now. I think we can agree Chandler has been on an upward trajectory since playing for Charlotte).

Anyways, I think its obvious that I am on the Gay to Toronto bandwagon. Prima facie, Johnson, Davis and #8 doesn't sound like enough to make it happen, but ancillary circumstances can make a world of difference, especially when money is tight.

Nice write up.

Strictly speaking from a talent perspective then, yes, Memphis is getting the short end of the stick in the proposed trade with Toronto.

But there are numerous other considerations to ponder. Financial is one. Depth is another.

I said this in an earlier post but it is worth saying again given the context, the logic might be flawed on my end but accepting the trade Toronto could offer might be better thought of as Gay for:

James Johnson
Ed Davis
#8
Mayo (or any assets in a S&T)
Speights or Arthur
back up PG or C (MLE)
player possibly added prior to July 1st with cap space


Looking at the trade in that context certainly is more appealing than just JJ/ED/#8.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Nice write up.

Strictly speaking from a talent perspective then, yes, Memphis is getting the short end of the stick in the proposed trade with Toronto.

But there are numerous other considerations to ponder. Financial is one. Depth is another.

I said this in an earlier post but it is worth saying again given the context, the logic might be flawed on my end but accepting the trade Toronto could offer might be better thought of as Gay for:

James Johnson
Ed Davis
#8
Mayo (or any assets in a S&T)
Speights or Arthur
back up PG or C (MLE)
player possibly added prior to July 1st with cap space


Looking at the trade in that context certainly is more appealing than just JJ/ED/#8.

Matt, the only concern I have with taking that approach is that a team like Golden State could conceivably offer #7 & Wright (if they can open up sufficient cap space to do so), which would then be more appealing than #8 & JJ/Davis, IMO. If Toronto was putting the only offer on the table then the logic works, but I think there could be a bit of a bidding war too, hence my inclusion of DeRozan. We also need to anticipate what similar offer Memphis might get, which gives them a lottery pick and the financial freedom to re-sign Mayo at least.

[planetmars]

Matt, the only concern I have with taking that approach is that a team like Golden State could conceivably offer #7 & Wright (if they can open up sufficient cap space to do so), which would then be more appealing than #8 & JJ/Davis, IMO. If Toronto was putting the only offer on the table then the logic works, but I think there could be a bit of a bidding war too, hence my inclusion of DeRozan. We also need to anticipate what similar offer Memphis might get, which gives them a lottery pick and the financial freedom to re-sign Mayo at least.

I'm not sure how GSW would free up space though.

They have already used their amnesty on Charlie Bell - so they wouldn't have it.

The guys on their roster making a lot of money are:

Biedrins - $18M (2 years remaining)
Jefferson - $21M (2 years remaining)
Lee - $55M (4 years remaining)
Bogut - $27M (2 years remaining)

I just can't see another team wanting any of these guys. Bogut perhaps, but he was just traded for.

The only way would be if they packaged up a guy like Biedrins or Jefferson with Curry, but they wouldn't trade Curry for Paul. Not sure why they'd trade him now for Gay?

I just don't see GSW as a serious competitor for Gay.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I'm not sure how GSW would free up space though.

They have already used their amnesty on Charlie Bell - so they wouldn't have it.

The guys on their roster making a lot of money are:

Biedrins - $18M (2 years remaining)
Jefferson - $21M (2 years remaining)
Lee - $55M (4 years remaining)
Bogut - $27M (2 years remaining)

I just can't see another team wanting any of these guys. Bogut perhaps, but he was just traded for.

The only way would be if they packaged up a guy like Biedrins or Jefferson with Curry, but they wouldn't trade Curry for Paul. Not sure why they'd trade him now for Gay?

I just don't see GSW as a serious competitor for Gay.

I wonder if Memphis would see any value and Jefferson as a replacement for Gay at SF, considering he's a decent defender and 3pt shooter. He would also become a tradeable asset after one season, as an expiring contract. Jefferson & Wright & #7 for Gay (and possibly unloading another small contract) isn't out of the question. Or maybe they are finally ready to part with Curry, who knows. I just wouldn't overlook the fact that the Raptors are bound to have some competition for Gay if they do in fact pursue him.

[planetmars]

I wonder if Memphis would see any value and Jefferson as a replacement for Gay at SF, considering he's a decent defender and 3pt shooter. He would also become a tradeable asset after one season, as an expiring contract. Jefferson & Wright & #7 for Gay (and possibly unloading another small contract) isn't out of the question. Or maybe they are finally ready to part with Curry, who knows. I just wouldn't overlook the fact that the Raptors are bound to have some competition for Gay if they do in fact pursue him.

You could be right.. but even if you did persuade Memphis in taking Jefferson with Wright, that would net $13M in assets. That's just a $2M savings, which would not be enough to bring back Mayo and remain under luxury tax. If the key is monetary savings, then Toronto has the advantage no matter who we include as assets going back to them.