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Thread: Hollinger's Big Board, PER

  1. #1
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    Default Hollinger's Big Board, PER

    7. Making my board

    Knowing everything we know, here is how my board looks heading into draft day. This is taking into account everything from the Draft Rater as well as what we know about the players' red flags, defensive pluses and minuses and one or two subjective calls:

    1. Anthony Davis
    2. Thomas Robinson
    3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
    4. Dion Waiters
    5. Andre Drummond

    6. Quincy Miller
    7. Jared Sullinger
    8. Terrence Jones
    9. John Henson
    10. Royce White

    11. Bradley Beal
    12. Harrison Barnes
    13. Tony Wroten
    14. Kendall Marshall
    15. Marquis Teague

    16. Draymond Green
    17. Jeremy Lamb
    18. Damian Lillard
    19. Austin Rivers
    20. Doron Lamb

    21. Furkan Aldemir
    22. Will Barton
    23. Tyler Zeller
    24. Evan Fournier
    25. Tyshawn Taylor

    26. Meyers Leonard
    27. Terrence Ross
    28. Perry Jones
    29. Festus Ezeli
    30. Fab Melo

    31. Kostas Sloukas
    32. Henry Sims
    33. Terrell Stoglin
    34. Kostas Papanikolaou
    35. Moe Harkless

    36. Leon Radosevic
    37. JaMychal Green
    38. Andrew Nicholson
    39. Drew Gordon
    40. Garrett Stutz

    41. Robert Sacre
    42. Arnett Moultrie
    43. William Buford
    44. Jae Crowder
    45. Jared Cunningham

    46. Jordan Taylor
    47. John Jenkins
    48. Orlando Johnson
    49. Jeffrey Taylor
    50. Tomas Satoransky

    51. Quincy Acy
    52. Maalik Wayns
    53. Tornike Shengelia
    54. Scott Machado
    55. Mike Scott

    56. J'Covan Brown
    57. Reggie Hamilton
    58. Khris Middleton
    59. Tony Mitchell
    60. Miles Plumlee

    I like it when someone challenges the status quo.

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    Standing out, Dw at 4
    Barnes and Beal at 11 / 12
    Lilliard at 18....

    Quite a difference here, but usually Hollinger is accurate, usually......

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    Quincy Miller at #6 sticks out for me.

    I wonder when Nopropsneeded will notice.......

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    Raptors Republic Starter OzRapFan's Avatar
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    Hope his right,
    If we came away with Barnes/Lillard, Moe Harkless and Quincy Acy (projected around our ranges) I would call it a sucessful draft for once.

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    Raptors Republic Starter torch19's Avatar
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    I'm liking Dion Waiters even more. I think Ive said that enough.
    “I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

    -- Charles Barkley

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
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    Quote OzRapFan wrote: View Post
    Hope his right,
    If we came away with Barnes/Lillard, Moe Harkless and Quincy Acy (projected around our ranges) I would call it a sucessful draft for once.
    Huh? This is NOT what John Hollinger thinks will happen -- this is his rankings of the players. If his rankings are right and we end up taking Barnes/Lillard, then we just had an UNSUCCESSFUL draft!

    I can't believe Perry Jones is down at #28. Ouch. I've never liked Damian Lillard so I hope the Raptors are reading this. Surprised at Dion Waiters and Quincy Miller. So if the mock drafts are right and Hollinger's rankings are right, then Waiters would be a steal.
    your pal,
    ebrian

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    Quote torch19 wrote: View Post
    I'm liking Dion Waiters even more. I think Ive said that enough.
    The more I read, the more I like him too. I was encouraged by Hollinger's article, because he reminds us to look at other players who have similar qualities and how they have done in the NBA over the span of their careers, and not just in their first year.

    Not saying I agree with his order necessarily, but it's good to see that Waiters is looked at in some context as less risky than Beal.

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    Raptors Republic Starter Quirk's Avatar
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    Does Hollinger offer any methodology here?

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    Given the Raptors interests in wing players this draft, here is Hollinger's draft rating for perimeter players:

    Perimeter Players: The Best

    Dion Waiters Syracuse 14.12
    Kendall Marshall North Carolina 13.84
    M. Kidd-Gilchrist Kentucky 13.58
    Marquis Teague Kentucky 13.18
    Quincy Miller Baylor 12.94
    Tony Wroten Washington 12.21
    Bradley Beal Florida 11.65
    Kostas Sloukas Greece 11.51
    Harrison Barnes North Carolina 11.11
    Will Barton Memphis 10.90
    Doron Lamb Kentucky 10.65
    Jeremy Lamb Connecticut 10.50

    Remember, these are projected PER ratings three or four years into their pro careers (or so I understand). Here's what he had to say about Waiters:

    "I have Waiters fourth for similar reasons. His size, 6-foot-4, is more of a concern, but whatever team made him a promise did a wise thing. Waiters projects as the best small wing since Dwyane Wade, and he'd be a steal if somebody got him in the Nos. 8-10 range currently being discussed."

    His Quincy Miller evaluation also caught me by surprise:

    "The other wing everybody is sleeping on is Quincy Miller of Baylor, who put up a strong mark despite coming off an ACL injury. He has more questions marks because of the knee and his bony build, but he is long and can score. The stories of him slipping have me baffled, because he rates as a top-10 pick."

    He wasn't as high on Beal and Barnes:

    "Two other wings who will be drafted highly don't rate as strongly: Beal and Harrison Barnes. Most players in their range turn out to be solid, but this part of the pool doesn't produce many stars. I'd be more comfortable taking these two in the later part of the lottery."

    One last quote on Lillard:

    "One player that Draft Rater isn't crazy about is Damian Lillard of Weber State, who compiled strong numbers but did so against a weak schedule and is much older than most of the prospects at his position. He not only failed to outrank the top point guards above but also rates behind the less-heralded Tyshawn Taylor of Kansas. No. 6 clearly seems a stretch for Lillard, who looks more like a mid-to-late first-rounder in this analysis."

    Take it for what it's worth. For me, I've always liked Waiters (that's my opinion, not Hollinger's).
    Last edited by Michel G; Tue Jun 19th, 2012 at 08:44 AM.

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    Quote Quirk wrote: View Post
    Does Hollinger offer any methodology here?
    PER ratings, data from past drafts and career paths that followed,....basically the world's most complicated formula....that, and what he says in the first paragraph on the op

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
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    I thought Lillard was the second most efficeint player in the nation after Davis. Interesting that he's ranked so low. Also Moe Harkless isn't even in the first round. I guess he hasn't found a way to calculate potential.

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    Age is a big factor in Hollinger's projections and Lillard is from the same high school class as DeRozan and Ed Davis.

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    Quote Quirk wrote: View Post
    Does Hollinger offer any methodology here?
    Its his annual draft rater, which takes college stats, and projects them to a PER score, based on a number of factors too complicated to explain. ESPN.com has an explanation of it somewhere, though.

    Its been surprisingly correct year after year, with only the occasional miss...

    Thus, I am now sold on Dion Waiters. Heh.

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    Terrence Jones with the 8th pick would fill a need the Raptors have at SF.

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    Here is Hollinger's 2010 ratings and draft board....not too bad actually in retrospect...

    http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...ng-draft-rater

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    Quote rus wrote: View Post
    PER ratings, data from past drafts and career paths that followed,....basically the world's most complicated formula....that, and what he says in the first paragraph on the op
    Yeah, I see that now. But not a pure calculated PER, but some wack projected PER. So basically voodoo. I doubt any statistical model that rates Drummond, who may have potential, but is not at the moment a very good basketball player, higher that Lillard, who may lack upside, but is a very good player right now. Wroten is higher than Lillard. #fail


    In any case, I hope GMs take this very seriously, and Lillard drops to us.
    Last edited by Quirk; Tue Jun 19th, 2012 at 11:01 AM.

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    Quote Seeten wrote: View Post
    Its been surprisingly correct year after year
    I doubt this. Does he provide any proof?

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    this seems like a ridiculous big board, when comparing it with mocks...but this guy isn't an idiot. I like Nicholson at 38, but I think he is a first rounder, same with Moultrie.
    lots of surprises in the lottery, how do all the players somehow connected to the Raps fall past them...Lillard, Barnes, Beal. and I really don't understand Q Miller at 6...how has his pre tourney draft stock the same and PJ3 dropped like 20+ spots?? They were equally unimpressive in the tourney...Draymond Green ahead of J Lamb?? Food for thought i guess

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    Quote Quirk wrote: View Post
    I doubt this. Does he provide any proof?
    From a 2009 article....The best year(2006) and worst year(2008), judge for yourself.
    2006

    Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
    Rudy Gay 15.19 7
    Rajon Rondo 14.65 16
    Shawne Williams 14.64 13
    Brandon Roy 13.88 5
    Tyrus Thomas 13.44 3
    LaMarcus Aldridge 13.01 1
    Adam Morrison 12.82 2
    Hilton Armstrong 12.41 9
    Ronnie Brewer 12.24 10
    Kyle Lowry 12.13 19
    Shelden Williams 12.03 4
    Marcus Williams 12.00 17
    * Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant, J.J. Redick

    This is arguably the Rater's best draft: It nailed five of its top six picks with only the Shawne Williams placement at No. 3 derailing it. That's a big improvement on what really happened on draft day, when Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams, Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant and J.J. Redick were five of the top 10 collegians taken. Only Morrison got into Draft Rater's top 10, and he was seventh rather than second.

    2008

    Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
    Kevin Love 14.62 5
    Michael Beasley 14.32 2
    Joe Alexander 13.48 8
    Mario Chalmers 13.01 29
    George Hill 12.77 23
    Chris Douglas-Rob 12.46 33
    Derrick Rose 12.36 1
    Roy Hibbert 12.30 17
    Darrell Arthur 12.17 24
    Ryan Anderson 12.14 20
    Marreese Speights12.11 16
    Darnell Jackson 12.11 42
    * Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, D.J. Augustin, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez

    2008 saw, by far, the Draft Rater's most radical departure from the actual draft, and also seems likely to go down as the Rater's worst overall season. Love led all rookies in PER and Beasley was fourth among '08 collegians, so the top two picks are solid. After that, it's a mess. One-and-done freshmen Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Anthony Randolph and Eric Gordon all ranked too low, as did solid rookies Brook Lopez and Russell Westbrook.

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    Quote Quirk wrote: View Post
    I doubt this. Does he provide any proof?
    From a 2009 article....The best year(2006) and worst year(2008), judge for yourself.
    2006

    Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
    Rudy Gay 15.19 7
    Rajon Rondo 14.65 16
    Shawne Williams14.64 13
    Brandon Roy 13.88 5
    Tyrus Thomas 13.44 3
    LaMarcus Aldridge 13.01 1
    Adam Morrison 12.82 2
    Hilton Armstrong 12.41 9
    Ronnie Brewer 12.24 10
    Kyle Lowry 12.13 19
    Shelden Williams 12.03 4
    Marcus Williams 12.00 17
    * Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant, J.J. Redick

    This is arguably the Rater's best draft: It nailed five of its top six picks with only the Shawne Williams placement at No. 3 derailing it. That's a big improvement on what really happened on draft day, when Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams, Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant and J.J. Redick were five of the top 10 collegians taken. Only Morrison got into Draft Rater's top 10, and he was seventh rather than second.

    2008

    Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
    Kevin Love 14.62 5
    Michael Beasley 14.32 2
    Joe Alexander 13.48 8
    Mario Chalmers 13.01 29
    George Hill 12.77 23
    Chris Douglas-Rob12.46 33
    Derrick Rose 12.36 1
    Roy Hibbert 12.30 17
    Darrell Arthur 12.17 24
    Ryan Anderson 12.14 20
    Marreese Speights12.11 16
    Darnell Jackson 12.11 42
    * Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, D.J. Augustin, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez

    2008 saw, by far, the Draft Rater's most radical departure from the actual draft, and also seems likely to go down as the Rater's worst overall season. Love led all rookies in PER and Beasley was fourth among '08 collegians, so the top two picks are solid. After that, it's a mess. One-and-done freshmen Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Anthony Randolph and Eric Gordon all ranked too low, as did solid rookies Brook Lopez and Russell Westbrook.
    Last edited by rus; Tue Jun 19th, 2012 at 11:27 AM.

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