Hollinger's Big Board, PER

[Quirk]

Yeah, his "best" predicted Shawne Williams would be better than Brandon Roy, and predicted that Sheldon Williams and Marcus Williams where good NBA Players. Does his magic formula award points for being called "Williams?"

There is no way half of the guys rated above Lillard will be as good as him.

If Marcus Teague turns out better than Damian Lillard I'll eat my hat and join a UFO cult.

[Bouncepass]

Yeah, I see that now. But not a pure calculated PER, but some wack projected PER. So basically voodoo. I doubt any statistical model that rates Drummond, who may have potential, but is not at the moment a very good basketball player, higher that Lillard, who may lack upside, but is a very good player right now. Wroten is higher than Lillard. #fail


In any case, I hope GMs take this very seriously, and Lillard drops to us.

How would you compare the freshman season of Lillard and Drummond, though? Lillard had a pretty average freshman year at a low-ranked school in a fairly non-competitive conference. As has been pointed out, he is of the same vintage as DeRozan and Davis. Neither of them would be considered stars at this point, but they would probably have been pretty dominant by their fourth year of college.

I am, in general, a big fan of ratings that take into account the age and development status of a player. Between 18 and 22, players can improve dramatically physically, in skills and in their understanding of the game.

[Sig]

Terrence Jones with the 8th pick would fill a need the Raptors have at SF.

Not really, his game is strikingly similar to JJ's. But maybe with more potential.

[Maleko]

Here is Hollinger's 2010 ratings and draft board....not too bad actually in retrospect...

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...ng-draft-rater

Really? Daniel Orton at 14th? That's a whack load off.

[BallaBalla]

From a 2009 article....The best year(2006) and worst year(2008), judge for yourself.
2006

Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
Rudy Gay 15.19 7
Rajon Rondo 14.65 16
Shawne Williams14.64 13
Brandon Roy 13.88 5
Tyrus Thomas 13.44 3
LaMarcus Aldridge 13.01 1
Adam Morrison 12.82 2
Hilton Armstrong 12.41 9
Ronnie Brewer 12.24 10
Kyle Lowry 12.13 19
Shelden Williams 12.03 4
Marcus Williams 12.00 17
* Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant, J.J. Redick

This is arguably the Rater's best draft: It nailed five of its top six picks with only the Shawne Williams placement at No. 3 derailing it. That's a big improvement on what really happened on draft day, when Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams, Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant and J.J. Redick were five of the top 10 collegians taken. Only Morrison got into Draft Rater's top 10, and he was seventh rather than second.

2008

Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
Kevin Love 14.62 5
Michael Beasley 14.32 2
Joe Alexander 13.48 8
Mario Chalmers 13.01 29
George Hill 12.77 23
Chris Douglas-Rob12.46 33
Derrick Rose 12.36 1
Roy Hibbert 12.30 17
Darrell Arthur 12.17 24
Ryan Anderson 12.14 20
Marreese Speights12.11 16
Darnell Jackson 12.11 42
* Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, D.J. Augustin, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez

2008 saw, by far, the Draft Rater's most radical departure from the actual draft, and also seems likely to go down as the Rater's worst overall season. Love led all rookies in PER and Beasley was fourth among '08 collegians, so the top two picks are solid. After that, it's a mess. One-and-done freshmen Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Anthony Randolph and Eric Gordon all ranked too low, as did solid rookies Brook Lopez and Russell Westbrook.

At the same time, he does a great job of picking the guys who are going to be steals. For example, Kevin Love going in the top 2 or 3 seems like a given at this point, and after you look at their careers depending on how D-rose comes back, Love might be a better pick.

If you put that into context with Waiters, and couple that with what everyone else is saying about him, he looks like a steal.

It also makes you think about Lilard and how low he was ranked i.e. maybe that's a big mistake

[Maleko]

I think some are mistaking he's and worst for accuracy rating players and and the actual rating/performances of those players. Unless I am making big money betting on the resultant draft order I couldn't care less how accurate a rating system is to picks as it makes it ultimately useless. A super-complicated in depth calculation SHOULD be accurate to show the players effectiveness to come.
In reality this crap is the same crapshoot the GMs are taking and therefore just fodder for forum banter.

[stretch]

Hollinger's Big Board has been a much better predictor of NBA performance than the actual order the players were drafted in for many years. Hollinger has tweaked the process over the years, including Euro players, and improved its efficiency imo.

Having said that, I don't think BC pays much attention to it, drafting low rated players like Derozan and Davis.

[Mediumcore]

Not really, his game is strikingly similar to JJ's. But maybe with more potential.

There isn't anything wrong with JJ's game. It's just you need someone at that position that can do what he does only better....enter Terrence Jones. Better shooter, better handles, better distributor, and I think will be a better rebounder.

[Bendit]

Really? Daniel Orton at 14th? That's a whack load off.

I think I said "not too bad". I dont think anyone including the author is guaranteeing astounding matchups to what finally shakes out. Besides drafting a centre to play behind Dwight H. is not a good career beginning for the draftee.

[ceez]

it sounds like he'll have a full time job soon!

[Mediumcore]

I'm a bit concerned that Lillard is older than most in the draft, but T-Rob also has a few years in Kansas, so I'm not sure how Hollinger penalizes one player and not the other. Also considering one of those years Lillard was injured and did not play.

[pillowmint]

I like the board and will play it safe in agreeing that it seems consistant. But, I think it's funny that Anthony Davis is automatically up there despite not working out for anyone.
I think a guy like Barnes is someone that may not have 'shined' as a player yet because they have the talent to make it to the big show, but not the willingness to show it until it's time. We'll see. I'd love to review this board in a year and see how it shakes out.

[Sig]

There isn't anything wrong with JJ's game. It's just you need someone at that position that can do what he does only better....enter Terrence Jones. Better shooter, better handles, better distributor, and I think will be a better rebounder.

Interesting, we'll see with time. If not, hopefully JJ will be an x-factor for us next season.

[Miekenstien]

Not really, his game is strikingly similar to JJ's. But maybe with more potential.

tjones is a better rebounder and scorer then jj.
http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/pla...terrance-jones
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/James-Johnson-5053/

bigger, faster stronger

[stretch]

James Johnson is faster and stronger than Terrance Jones according to their combine numbers.

--- No Step Vert -- Max Vert -- Bench Press ---- Lane Agility ---- 3/4 Court Sprint
JJ: ......30.5............. 35.0.............18................11.21.......... ..........3.23
TJ: .....29.5...............34.5............12........ ........11.57....................3.40

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/James-Johnson-5053/
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/...ce-Jones-5708/

[torch19]

I don't think we need a duplicate of James Johnson, tbh. Why need another one, if we have one. It would essentially bring the same problems we have with JJ now.

[Miekenstien]

James Johnson is faster and stronger than Terrance Jones according to their combine numbers.

--- No Step Vert -- Max Vert -- Bench Press ---- Lane Agility ---- 3/4 Court Sprint
JJ: ......30.5............. 35.0.............18................11.21.......... ..........3.23
TJ: .....29.5...............34.5............12........ ........11.57....................3.40

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/James-Johnson-5053/
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/...ce-Jones-5708/

surprised he is that much stronger.
what is lane agility? and how is it measured?

[stretch]

It's a drill where the player changes directions. It's timed.

[ebrian]

I'm a bit concerned that Lillard is older than most in the draft, but T-Rob also has a few years in Kansas, so I'm not sure how Hollinger penalizes one player and not the other. Also considering one of those years Lillard was injured and did not play.

Maybe it's also based on Lillard just not being very good.

Physically, James Johnson is impressive. As player, however, he's only average and on a good team, like a mid-level playoff team that makes it through a first round, James Johnson likely is a 13th or 14th man. If Terrence Jones is a similar player, then we need to stay the heck away.

James Johnson if you look at James Johnson's mock draft history, the highest he ever got was 14th overall. Terrence Jones averages around 15th. We'll see.