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Thread: Raptor Free Agency Rumours: How does it all work?

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Default Raptor Free Agency Rumours: How does it all work?

    **If any of the following is wrong, please let me know!**

    Reports of offers to Nash, Ilyasova, and Fields have many Raptors fans confused - myself included.

    Lots of questions as to how it would actually work given cap holds, committed salary, exceptions all the while within the confines of the CBA. I think the deal can work and here is how but first some information:

    Raptors payroll from ShamSports:

    $41.075M for 8 players with a roster looking like this:

    PG: Calderon
    SG: DD, Forbes
    SF: JJ, LK
    PF: Bargnani, Amir, Davis
    C:

    Cap holds from ShamSports.com that in my opinion matters:

    Bayless - $7.605 (250% last year's salary)
    Gray - $3M (120% of last year's salary)
    JV - $2.812M (rookie contract, #5)
    Ross - $2.136 (rookie contract, #8)

    *Alabi, Uzoh, Andersen can all be signed for minimum contracts after renouncing their cap hold. In my opinion they are not worth anything more.

    Exceptions:
    MLE - $5M
    Barbosa TPE - $7.6M

    Total cap hit as of now: $69.228M (salary + cap holds + exceptions).


    So how do the Raptors make it all work?

    The magic number in all of this is $51.744M. The Raptors cannot have more than $51.744M in committed salary and cap holds before making the offer to Fields.

    1) Sign and trade for Nash. Either send Calderon and/or Forbes out in a sign and trade or amnesty Jose or send Forbes (or send Forbes out in #2 if Suns don't want him meaning the Suns get just a TPE). That is $12M out and $12M in if the high reports are true. There has been rumblings the offer is less than $36M but lets go with the higher number to be safe.

    2) Sign and trade for Ilyasova. The Turk is reportedly looking for a deal in the $8M range. Well, Raps have a $7.6M TPE. Would the $400k difference kill any deal? Going to Milwaukee would be one of Ed Davis or Amir Johnson, James Johnson, and possibly Forbes if he wasn't sent out in #1.

    Lets be conservative and just say that Calderon, Ed Davis, James Johnson, and Gary Forbes are gone when the smoke clears; Nash is signed at $12M; and Ilyasova is signed at $7.6M.

    From our Magic number of $51.744, the Raps have this (all salary numbers from ShamSports.com):

    Nash: $12M
    Bargnani: $10M
    Ilyasova: $7.6M
    Amir: $6.05M
    Kleiza: $4.6M
    DD: $3.344M
    JV: $2.812M
    Ross: $2.136M

    This gives 8 players at $48.542M leaving $3.2M in cap space. If Nash signs for less than $12M, whatever the difference is added to $3.2M giving remaining cap space below magic number of $51.744M.

    3) Sign Bayless to a contract with the remaining cap space.

    4) Sign Fields to offer sheet of 3 years, $19M with an average cap hit of $6.3M per season taking the Raptors right up to the salary ca of $58.044M.

    5) Raps will have a room exception of $2.5M. Re-sign Gray or another C?

    6) Round out roster with minimum contracts: Magloire, Andersen, Acy, Uzoh?


    Final Roster:

    PG: Nash, Bayless, Uzoh
    SG: DD, Ross, Andersen
    SF: Fields, Ilyasova, Kleiza
    PF: Bargnani, Amir, Acy
    C: JV, Room Exception, Magloire


    There would be lots of flexibility with the line ups as:

    Bayless: 1/2
    DD: 2/3
    Ross: 2/3
    Andersen: 2/3
    Fields: 2/3
    Ilyasova: 3/4
    Kleiza: 3/4
    Amir: 4/5
    Last edited by mcHAPPY; Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 10:54 AM.

  2. #2
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Nice write-up Matt.

    One question I have is about Bayless. I understand the way the initial cap-hold is calculated, which is to account for him getting the maximum allowable raise. However, I thought that once a Qualifying Offer was formally extended, the cap-hold for him would switch from the potential maximum to the actual QO amount. It would just mean that they'd have a little more room to manouever ahead of the Fields signing.

    Interesting thought about using the TPE on Ilyasova... I hadn't thought about acquiring him via TPE S&T. I think Ilyasova or Chandler would be good targets using the same method; TPE & minor asset(s).

    I also agree that Calderon, Davis/Amir and possibly JJ, Bayless and Forbes are all good as gone.
    Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 11:02 AM.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Nice write-up Matt.

    One question I have is about Bayless. I understand the way the initial cap-hold is calculated, which is to account for him getting the maximum allowable raise. However, I thought that once a Qualifying Offer was formally extended, the cap-hold for him would switch from the potential maximum to the actual QO amount. It would just mean that they'd have a little more room to manouever ahead of the Fields signing.

    Interesting thought about using the TPE on Ilyasova... I hadn't thought about acquiring him via TPE S&T. I think Ilyasova or Chandler would be good targets using the same method; TPE & minor asset(s).

    I also agree that Calderon, Davis/Amir and possibly JJ, Bayless and Forbes are all good as gone.
    On Bayless, you are correct.

    However, Raps sign Bayless to cap space remaining below magic number of $51.744M before offer to Fields making his cap hold irrelevant in the big picture.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Nice post Matt!

    I mentioned this in another thread, but this morning I was thinking about how we could use that TPE on Fields. NY may like the idea of getting some asset in return from losing Fields and Lin (if they don't match Houston's offer). They can then use that TPE to get a PG like Sessions, Felton, Lowry, or to help strengthen their bench.

    NY may feel jilted with how we took Fields and prevented them from getting Nash, but with the right sales pitch from BC they may appreciate the asset in return which they can use for something else (like Ilysova). From our perspective we can then save the cap space for Nash, and possibly someone else if we amnesty/trade Jose.

    A TPE is usually useless but I can see a team like NY wanting it so that they can become more flexible especially around the trade deadline for example. At $7.6M its not really enough to attract a stud that we'd need. I guess I'm still clinging on to the hope that we end up with someone like Gay.

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    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    Nice post Matt!

    I mentioned this in another thread, but this morning I was thinking about how we could use that TPE on Fields. NY may like the idea of getting some asset in return from losing Fields and Lin (if they don't match Houston's offer). They can then use that TPE to get a PG like Sessions, Felton, Lowry, or to help strengthen their bench.

    NY may feel jilted with how we took Fields and prevented them from getting Nash, but with the right sales pitch from BC they may appreciate the asset in return which they can use for something else (like Ilysova). From our perspective we can then save the cap space for Nash, and possibly someone else if we amnesty/trade Jose.

    A TPE is usually useless but I can see a team like NY wanting it so that they can become more flexible especially around the trade deadline for example. At $7.6M its not really enough to attract a stud that we'd need. I guess I'm still clinging on to the hope that we end up with someone like Gay.
    In theory I agree that a S&T for Fields would benefit NYK. However, if Toronto winds up poaching Fields AND landing Nash, do you really think NYK would do us any favours? I imagine they would say "screw you" to BC and then hang up the phone, just out of spite. It would be like going on a blind date and raping her, then visiting her in the hospital room three days later to request her half of the dinner bill.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar enlightenment's Avatar
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    strong team in every position. I am a huge fan of beginning the season like this.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    Nice post Matt!

    I mentioned this in another thread, but this morning I was thinking about how we could use that TPE on Fields. NY may like the idea of getting some asset in return from losing Fields and Lin (if they don't match Houston's offer). They can then use that TPE to get a PG like Sessions, Felton, Lowry, or to help strengthen their bench.

    NY may feel jilted with how we took Fields and prevented them from getting Nash, but with the right sales pitch from BC they may appreciate the asset in return which they can use for something else (like Ilysova). From our perspective we can then save the cap space for Nash, and possibly someone else if we amnesty/trade Jose.

    A TPE is usually useless but I can see a team like NY wanting it so that they can become more flexible especially around the trade deadline for example. At $7.6M its not really enough to attract a stud that we'd need. I guess I'm still clinging on to the hope that we end up with someone like Gay.
    Before the season starts, absolutely not going to happen in my opinion.

    After December 15th and before the trade deadline in February? Hmmmmmmmm. Might as well keep those fingers crossed for another 6 months.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie G-locity's Avatar
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    Very good point, i just hope nash makes a decision soon so we can move on if ever.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Balls of Steel's Avatar
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    The Ilyasova rumor is dubious. The Raps may have contacted them but perhaps no offers are on the table.
    “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

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    Raptors Republic Starter connected's Avatar
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    Nice write up

    It is slightly painful that will probably be paying more for fields than Jason Terry or Ray Allen but if we end up with the lineup that you drew up then our 2nd unit will be better than the starting unit we had for the majority of last year - so I'm happy

    still hoping that after a few more trades (sign and trades) we can land a vet like kirilenko to man the 3 spot ... even if he is a shadow of what he use to be he will still be able to cover up Andrea's D well. I like Ersan too.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
    The Ilyasova rumor is dubious. The Raps may have contacted them but perhaps no offers are on the table.
    Agreed. Just working with the rumours given!

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    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    Seems any time there's a euro FA the raps are making offers
    @jerboat

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    Raptors Republic All-Star charlesnba23's Avatar
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    Matt, would this final roster work?

    Nash/Bayless/Uzoh
    DeRozan/Fields/Ross
    Ilyasova/Johnson/Kleiza
    Bargnani/Johnson/Acy
    Valanciunas/Gray/Magloire

    That is the same team that you proposed in your original post but we keep JJ instead of having Alan Anderson. That means Calderon and Davis go to Phoenix and Gary Forbes go to Milwaukee. Is this possible?

  14. #14
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote charlesnba23 wrote: View Post
    Matt, would this final roster work?

    Nash/Bayless/Uzoh
    DeRozan/Fields/Ross
    Ilyasova/Johnson/Kleiza
    Bargnani/Johnson/Acy
    Valanciunas/Gray/Magloire

    That is the same team that you proposed in your original post but we keep JJ instead of having Alan Anderson. That means Calderon and Davis go to Phoenix and Gary Forbes go to Milwaukee. Is this possible?
    Not unless Bayless is signing for $400K (impossible) or the Raptors renounce his rights making him UFA and then signs for a minimum contract or the $2.5M room exception. Then Gray is either on a minimum contract or whatever backup C is signed is on a minimum contract.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star charlesnba23's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Not unless Bayless is signing for $400K (impossible) or the Raptors renounce his rights making him UFA and then signs for a minimum contract or the $2.5M room exception. Then Gray is either on a minimum contract or whatever backup C is signed is on a minimum contract.
    Thanks, now let's pray

  16. #16
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Oh yeah.

    It should also be noted that the salary cap figure for 2012-13 has not been released. Under new CBA it is guaranteed to be no less than $58.044M for 2011-12 and 2012-13 but I have read rumours that it might inch up to $60-61M.

    I do not know how credible those rumours are but just throwing the possibility out there.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star DoNDaDDa's Avatar
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    well its looking more & more like Nash will go to the Knicks.. cant see what he likes about that roster. they're not making a run for the title any more then the Raps will be, ive already heard quite a few NY beat writers talking about how effective Nash will be as a spot up 3pt shooter,like Kidd did for the Mavs..LOL these guys have no clue...its a shame that Nash will be watching Melo dribble out 22sec of the shot clock everytime down the floor for the next 3 years.. if it happens. i hope he applies for his US citizenship while hes at it..

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    Raptors Republic Starter Mindlessness's Avatar
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    Quote DoNDaDDa wrote: View Post
    well its looking more & more like Nash will go to the Knicks.. cant see what he likes about that roster. they're not making a run for the title any more then the Raps will be, ive already heard quite a few NY beat writers talking about how effective Nash will be as a spot up 3pt shooter,like Kidd did for the Mavs..LOL these guys have no clue...its a shame that Nash will be watching Melo dribble out 22sec of the shot clock everytime down the floor for the next 3 years.. if it happens. i hope he applies for his US citizenship while hes at it..
    You ARE kidding, Am I Right?

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    Raptors Republic Rookie Phat Farmer's Avatar
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    Excellent write-up Matt. Thanks for crunching the numbers that none of us can seem to wrap our heads around. You're RR's version of Steve Fruitman

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Phat Farmer wrote: View Post
    Excellent write-up Matt. Thanks for crunching the numbers that none of us can seem to wrap our heads around. You're RR's version of Steve Fruitman
    Thank you for the compliment.

    Unfortunately, it looks like I wasted an hour and a half this morning wrapping my head around the numbers.

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