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Thread: Wolstat: JJ not likely to return

  1. #61
    Raptors Republic Starter SuperRaptor's Avatar
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    Quote torch19 wrote: View Post
    James Johnson is our best perimeter defender who can also hold his own in the 4 spot. I don't get this speculation. I hope it's not true.

    We're already losing Bayless, not James Johnson too ...
    +1

  2. #62
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    I'm not sure JJ is the best defender. If you are going on steals and blocks, then yes, other metrics, then no.
    adjusted defensive +/- he is best on the team

    has the lowest defense rating on the team

    has the best defensive win share on the team

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Soft Euro's Avatar
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    Quote SuperRaptor wrote: View Post
    I agree with you 100% joey. Bayless produced at an ELITE level whenever he had a chance to start, he has been referred to defensively by dwayne casey as: "Our best on the ball defender" and he shot 42% from the 3 pt line last year, which was a huge weakness for our team last year. James johnson became the first raptor to EVER lead the team in both steals and blocks, his shooting improved as the season went on and he is a stat stuffer.

    How people can be so happy that these guys will not be returning is beyond me.

    I've said this before and I will say it again, sometimes I think we need to change the name of this website to "HatersRepublic".
    Well ... we probably can't keep everyone if we want to improve and some people have a different opinion about who is any good and who isn't and there have been given valid reasons for it as well; this doesn't have a lot to do with hating.

    Sidenote, last time you refered to 'HatersRepublic' it was because of your own opinion about Bosh winning a championship, not because of other posters hating on players on the team.

    Quote SuperRaptor wrote: View Post
    Do I want Bosh to win the championship? Well I guess we should change the name of this site to "HatersRepublic" because I don't want him to, I dont know why, I just want to see the heat lose this year, trade bosh next year, and win then, so Bosh can never win a championship. Is that mean?

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    adjusted defensive +/- he is best on the team

    has the lowest defense rating on the team

    has the best defensive win share on the team
    I stand corrected.

    I was thinking of oppPER and on/off court rating.

  5. #65
    Raptors Republic All-Star Soft Euro's Avatar
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    And there are of course the situational stats from synergysports where James Johnson doesn't do that well.

    Personally I don't hold much value to defensive ratings as a singular stat because defense and offense are not separate zero sum games.

    For instance, Boston did very well on defense as a team, they had the best rating in the league (or 2nd best if you look at DeffEff at hoopdata.com) and (of course) they are a very good defensive team. But one of the reasons they were among the very best was because they didn't go after offensive rebounds, they were deadlast in the league on Offensive Rebound Rate. They wanted to get back on defensive positions. Clearly their offense suffered because of this (regardless of it being a good idea or not).

  6. #66
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote Soft Euro wrote: View Post
    And there are of course the situational stats from synergysports where James Johnson doesn't do that well.

    Personally I don't hold much value to defensive ratings as a singular stat because defense and offense are not separate zero sum games.

    For instance, Boston did very well on defense as a team, they had the best rating in the league (or 2nd best if you look at DeffEff at hoopdata.com) and (of course) they are a very good defensive team. But one of the reasons they were among the very best was because they didn't go after offensive rebounds, they were deadlast in the league on Offensive Rebound Rate. They wanted to get back on defensive positions. Clearly their offense suffered because of this (regardless of it being a good idea or not).
    the Raps did the exact same thing aswell. But the entire team did it, so not one person had an edge over another player on the same team.

    Comparing defense rating from team to team may not be the best way to compare, but using it on the same team says alot. Which was what i was referring to.

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    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
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    This is terrible and sad. I really won't know what to do without my Johnson...and the recent news that Amir might be amnestied... Both my Johnson's will be gone. I went from two to zero in the blink of one eye.

    I for one suggest a protest.

    We must go into the ACC chanting and screaming for our Johnson's back

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    Raptors Republic All-Star e2thed's Avatar
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    Quote Mapko wrote: View Post
    What would you "expect" for DD?
    DD & JJ for D Williams? (apparently Minnie is "shopping" Williams).
    I'd do it. Then Ross can have more time to develop at the 2.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Soft Euro's Avatar
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    the Raps did the exact same thing aswell. But the entire team did it, so not one person had an edge over another player on the same team.

    Comparing defense rating from team to team may not be the best way to compare, but using it on the same team says alot. Which was what i was referring to.
    It isn't a zero sum game on the same team as well. E.g. (random example): all other things equal I would assume a player who shoots a lot of corner threes does worse on defense in transition and will have a worse defensive rating because of this.

    Btw, I have no research to back this up, it just seems logical to me that different individual offensive skillsets like this have an impact on team defense.

  10. #70
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote Soft Euro wrote: View Post
    It isn't a zero sum game on the same team as well. E.g. (random example): all other things equal I would assume a player who shoots a lot of corner threes does worse on defense in transition and will have a worse defensive rating because of this.

    Btw, I have no research to back this up, it just seems logical to me that different individual offensive skillsets like this have an impact on team defense.
    well if we assumed that, it would be logical to conclude that the person at the top of the key would therefore have the best defensive rating. However, Jose had the worst on the team.

    Defense rating is how many points per 100 possessions a team allowed with said player was on the floor. It really doesn't matter where he was in transition, or on offense. But how many points the team gave up with him playing.

  11. #71
    Raptors Republic Starter SuperRaptor's Avatar
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    Lol, that wasn't the first time I had made a reference to hatersrepublic, but its nice to see someone was paying attention lol.

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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    well if we assumed that, it would be logical to conclude that the person at the top of the key would therefore have the best defensive rating. However, Jose had the worst on the team.
    Well, that's why I said "all other things equal". That's different from just taking the person who might be at the top of the key the most.

    Defense rating is how many points per 100 possessions a team allowed with said player was on the floor. It really doesn't matter where he was in transition, or on offense. But how many points the team gave up with him playing.
    I get that, but teams don't play the exact same way regardless of who is on the floor; the way they attack and defend changes according to their combined skillsets even if it may not differ as much with a few different players on the floor as it differs between teams.

    The only thing about defensive or offensive rating that would make sense to me is using them in combination and look at the difference between on/off. And even then there are a lot of issues with it. For instance: there is a difference between playing against the first or second unit of the opposing team (and with whom you play the most on your own team). There is a lot of noise in this kind of data which makes it hard to draw farreaching conclusions (for me).

  13. #73
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    well if we assumed that, it would be logical to conclude that the person at the top of the key would therefore have the best defensive rating. However, Jose had the worst on the team.

    Defense rating is how many points per 100 possessions a team allowed with said player was on the floor. It really doesn't matter where he was in transition, or on offense. But how many points the team gave up with him playing.
    While Soft Euro and I rarely disagree, this will be one of those times; I'm with you on this Craiger.

    I think James Johnson has shown to be, in my opinion, one of the premier wing defenders in the League.
    Contrary to what has been stated in here, I do not recall him being a huge gambler on defense, nor do I recall him straying from him man, into the key, just to block a shot. And the more experience he gains, the better he will be at being able to read plays, and be even more efficient with his defense. He's still young.
    In Masai we Trust.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie JackfromNZ's Avatar
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    He is still developing. Granted it has taken longer that most would of liked but he is getting better!

  15. #75
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote Soft Euro wrote: View Post
    Well, that's why I said "all other things equal". That's different from just taking the person who might be at the top of the key the most.



    I get that, but teams don't play the exact same way regardless of who is on the floor; the way they attack and defend changes according to their combined skillsets even if it may not differ as much with a few different players on the floor as it differs between teams.

    The only thing about defensive or offensive rating that would make sense to me is using them in combination and look at the difference between on/off. And even then there are a lot of issues with it. For instance: there is a difference between playing against the first or second unit of the opposing team (and with whom you play the most on your own team). There is a lot of noise in this kind of data which makes it hard to draw farreaching conclusions (for me).
    well if thats the case than no stat, no watching or no interpretation can accurately judge how good or bad a player is. But I don't think thats the case at all.

    As for 'noise', well thats an argument that can be made for anything. How much 'noise' in incorporated in watching a game? For example, when we watch Amir get a rebound, did we see Jose boxing out his man or not boxing him out? When Amir misses the rebound to his man did we see how he was positioned to help a teammate on D? Statistics, by using a large sample, leave that noise to a minimum. And by comparing against your own teammates, a chunk of that noise is relatively even.

    Plus defensive win share and adjusted defensive +/- are saying something very similar aswell.

  16. #76
    Raptors Republic All-Star Soft Euro's Avatar
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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    While Soft Euro and I rarely disagree, this will be one of those times; I'm with you on this Craiger.

    I think James Johnson has shown to be, in my opinion, one of the premier wing defenders in the League.
    Contrary to what has been stated in here, I do not recall him being a huge gambler on defense, nor do I recall him straying from him man, into the key, just to block a shot. And the more experience he gains, the better he will be at being able to read plays, and be even more efficient with his defense. He's still young.
    Joey, how can you?

    Let's use some more and other stats, from Synergysports (kind of my pet stat). To be an elite individual defender he should be in the category of people on the nba all defensive teams in regards to points per possession (on defense). He isn't even close.

    James Johnson is at 0,91. Compare that to Lebron at 0,83; Deng at 0,83; Tony Allen at 0,8; Iguodala at 0,8. As I said, he's not even close.

    (Btw, Kleiza is here at 0,72. Better chalk that one largely up to small sample size for now.)

  17. #77
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    well if thats the case than no stat, no watching or no interpretation can accurately judge how good or bad a player is. But I don't think thats the case at all.
    I do think that is exactly the case; I don't think you can say accurately how good or bad a player is; there are many things to consider and used in combination one can make good arguments for or against the value of a player.

    As for 'noise', well thats an argument that can be made for anything. How much 'noise' in incorporated in watching a game? For example, when we watch Amir get a rebound, did we see Jose boxing out his man or not boxing him out? When Amir misses the rebound to his man did we see how he was positioned to help a teammate on D? Statistics, by using a large sample, leave that noise to a minimum. And by comparing against your own teammates, a chunk of that noise is relatively even.
    This is actually a nice example of how stats can be misleading and how some formulas miss-use stats. For instance, Zach Randolph (less so these days than a couple of years ago I think) is known for consequently refusing to give help in situations where doing so would mean leaving his superior rebounding position he fought his man for. He didn't want to give up the chance to get the rebound. This statpadding didn't help the team, made him a worse player, but helped out on a lot of stats.

    A problem with some of these boxscore related 'advanced' stats is for example that they see the rebound as getting the possession instead of the defensive play which made the player miss the shot in the first place (or even worse, a lot of times players just miss even though there isn't good defense); noise, noise, noise.

    Plus defensive win share and adjusted defensive +/- are saying something very similar aswell.
    Aren't these stats very similar? As far as I know (but I'm not an expert on it) defensive win shares use defensive ratings. If this is the case it's hard to use these stats to support a stat on which they are (at least partly) based as they will of course paint the same picture.
    Last edited by Soft Euro; Mon Jul 9th, 2012 at 09:03 PM.

  18. #78
    Raptors Republic All-Star Miekenstien's Avatar
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    i think the decision on jj was made in end of the year interviews. all of us are going on pure speculation and whether or not he is even here in october remains to be seen but to me a 20 something kid been sitting on the bench for 3 years gets a shot and does well. feels he finally made it and then is told he is a bench player, which to me he is, during the season they had a spat which everyone handled extremely well. however everyones viewpoints remained the same. in the year end interview dc and bc would have explained what they saw in him and what they wanted from him. he might not of wanted the same thing.

    if jj is a starter in this league it will have to be on a rebuilding team where he might get a chance to grow.

    i think a decision like this would normally come down to klieza or jj, like ed or amir, and would usually be simply decided by jj being younger and cheaper however the team has a lot of hope invested in bigv and will try to make him as comfortable as possible. klieza has shown in the past that without proper playing time he gets disgruntled, he was pretty unhappy in denver, and i would think that his offensive advantage would put him in the game before jj.

    so now a kid who thought he broke out and proved himself is relegated to matchup playing time and 3rd string sf minutes. to me jj probably explained what he wanted to achieve and happen this year and the rest of his career and it might not be what toronto wants from jj so both parties are ready to move on.

  19. #79
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote Soft Euro wrote: View Post
    This is actually a nice example of how stats can be misleading and how some formulas miss-use stats. For instance, Zach Randolph (less so these days than a couple of years ago I think) is known for consequently refusing to give help in situations where doing so would mean leaving his superior rebounding position he fought his man for. He didn't want to give up the chance to get the rebound. This statpadding didn't help the team, made him a worse player, but helped out on a lot of stats.

    that 'stat padding' doesn't matter to defense rating. As it does not matter who scored or who didn't. Who rebounded and who didn't. Just how many points the team (or the opposition) scored with him on the floor.

    they see the rebound as getting the possession instead of the defensive play which made the player miss the shot in the first place (or even worse, a lot of times players just miss even though there isn't good defense
    I'm not sure what you are getting at here. The numbers I listed above don't care about this at all. This is more of a WP vs PER thing.


    I also think you missed my point on the 'noise' issue. There is just as much noise, if not more, in watching games.

  20. #80
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    i would definitely probably shed a tear if JJ was traded.

    But we do a need another backup C. It'd also be grand if BC could package up all these extra players for one good player - although i'm sure its a tough sell to receive mutiple bench guys to give up one starter.

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