As the various hand-check rules were instituted and modified from 1998-2006 (there were at least 4 "changes" during this period), the game become more and more perimeter oriented. This has seen a sharp decline in productive big men who play around the basket.
Last year, Jonas managed to put up a per game average of 11.3 points and 8.8 boards. For many fans, those numbers may not pop out but they are quite impressive in a more historical context. NBA bigs (defined as playing either C, F-C, C-F and over 6'9" on basketball-reference.com) since 2000, has seen 17 players score more than 11 and grab more than 8 boards per game in their second season. Roughly 1 big per draft, but look at some of the names.
Yao Ming, Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol, Chris Bosh, Cousins, and yes, Jonas (while averaging 28 MPG while most of this list were between 32 and 36 MPG).
So grouping Jonas with the players that produced most closely to his numbers, we pull out Al Horford, Andrew Bogut, and Emeka Okafor (Greg Oden is dropped for obvious reason).
Al Horford, a year older than JV in his second season, saw his PPG over his first 4 years rise from 10.1 - 11.5 - 14.2 - 15.3, while his rebounding avg stayed at 9.x (fluctuated between 9.3-9.9). He was an all-star in his 3rd and 4th season. By his 6th season, he reached 17.4 PPG and 10.2 RPG.
Andrew Bogut, same age as JV in his 2nd season, saw his per game scoring average rise from 9.4 - 12.3 - 14.3 before an injury limited his 4th season to 33 games. His rebounding rose from 7.0 - 8.8 - 9.8. By his 5th season, Bogut averaged 15.9 PPG and 10.2 RPG.
Emeka Okafor, 2 years older than JV in his 2nd season, saw his per game scoring average drop from 15.1 - 13.2 - 14.4 - 13.8 over his first 4 seasons. His rebounding was steady at 10.9 - 10.0 - 11.3 - 10.7. His second season was limited to 26 games due to injury, but based on his previous and subsequent season stats, his second season is a fair reflection despite the limited games. Okafor's rookie season was his best at 15.1 and 10.9, while playing the most minutes per game of his career.
JV yearly stats went from 8.9 PPG - 11.3, 6 RPG - 8.8.
Of the 4 players, JV had the 2nd best FG% and the best FT%. So with his efficient game, what is a reasonable expectation for JV to improve his production?
Horford's 2nd season is the closest to JV statistically, but JV's 2nd season per 36 numbers are almost identical (slightly better actually) to Horford's 3rd season per 36 numbers and very similar to Bogut's 3rd season per 36 numbers. So to say that JV is at least on a similar trajectory as these two players' early career, seems more than reasonable.
Taking all this into account, it seems very reasonable to project that JV will be able to put up 16 PPG and 10+ RPG within the next 2 or 3 seasons and could be an all-star (lack of defined center on the ballot will hurt his starting chances, but coaches selection seems reasonable).
Those numbers are relevant, because since 2000, only 16 players have been able to reach 16+ PPG and 10+ RPG. Drill even further down, and the number of true centers to hit that are Dwight Howard (8 times), Shaq (5 times), Yao (2), Al Jefferson (4), Cousins (2), Bynum (1) and Horford (1). That is 7 players who play center over a span of 14 years. That is pretty exclusive company, especially if JV can stay healthy and maintain that productivity over multiple seasons. Since Shaq, Yao and Bynum are all basically out of the league, only Howard, Jefferson and Cousins are the active centers (Horford has since moved to his more natural PF position after playing C for many years).
JV may never be a 20-10 guy, those are very rare (5 last season - 4 of them PFs), but he doesn't have to be to reach a status of big impact center. Those are a dying breed, and JV seems to be poised to reach that soon. Maybe not next season (but possible if given 33-34 MPG) but within the very near future. That is truly exciting.