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Thread: JV comparable big man production in the modern NBA

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Default JV comparable big man production in the modern NBA

    As the various hand-check rules were instituted and modified from 1998-2006 (there were at least 4 "changes" during this period), the game become more and more perimeter oriented. This has seen a sharp decline in productive big men who play around the basket.

    Last year, Jonas managed to put up a per game average of 11.3 points and 8.8 boards. For many fans, those numbers may not pop out but they are quite impressive in a more historical context. NBA bigs (defined as playing either C, F-C, C-F and over 6'9" on basketball-reference.com) since 2000, has seen 17 players score more than 11 and grab more than 8 boards per game in their second season. Roughly 1 big per draft, but look at some of the names.

    Yao Ming, Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol, Chris Bosh, Cousins, and yes, Jonas (while averaging 28 MPG while most of this list were between 32 and 36 MPG).

    So grouping Jonas with the players that produced most closely to his numbers, we pull out Al Horford, Andrew Bogut, and Emeka Okafor (Greg Oden is dropped for obvious reason).

    Al Horford, a year older than JV in his second season, saw his PPG over his first 4 years rise from 10.1 - 11.5 - 14.2 - 15.3, while his rebounding avg stayed at 9.x (fluctuated between 9.3-9.9). He was an all-star in his 3rd and 4th season. By his 6th season, he reached 17.4 PPG and 10.2 RPG.

    Andrew Bogut, same age as JV in his 2nd season, saw his per game scoring average rise from 9.4 - 12.3 - 14.3 before an injury limited his 4th season to 33 games. His rebounding rose from 7.0 - 8.8 - 9.8. By his 5th season, Bogut averaged 15.9 PPG and 10.2 RPG.

    Emeka Okafor, 2 years older than JV in his 2nd season, saw his per game scoring average drop from 15.1 - 13.2 - 14.4 - 13.8 over his first 4 seasons. His rebounding was steady at 10.9 - 10.0 - 11.3 - 10.7. His second season was limited to 26 games due to injury, but based on his previous and subsequent season stats, his second season is a fair reflection despite the limited games. Okafor's rookie season was his best at 15.1 and 10.9, while playing the most minutes per game of his career.

    JV yearly stats went from 8.9 PPG - 11.3, 6 RPG - 8.8.

    Of the 4 players, JV had the 2nd best FG% and the best FT%. So with his efficient game, what is a reasonable expectation for JV to improve his production?

    Horford's 2nd season is the closest to JV statistically, but JV's 2nd season per 36 numbers are almost identical (slightly better actually) to Horford's 3rd season per 36 numbers and very similar to Bogut's 3rd season per 36 numbers. So to say that JV is at least on a similar trajectory as these two players' early career, seems more than reasonable.

    Taking all this into account, it seems very reasonable to project that JV will be able to put up 16 PPG and 10+ RPG within the next 2 or 3 seasons and could be an all-star (lack of defined center on the ballot will hurt his starting chances, but coaches selection seems reasonable).

    Those numbers are relevant, because since 2000, only 16 players have been able to reach 16+ PPG and 10+ RPG. Drill even further down, and the number of true centers to hit that are Dwight Howard (8 times), Shaq (5 times), Yao (2), Al Jefferson (4), Cousins (2), Bynum (1) and Horford (1). That is 7 players who play center over a span of 14 years. That is pretty exclusive company, especially if JV can stay healthy and maintain that productivity over multiple seasons. Since Shaq, Yao and Bynum are all basically out of the league, only Howard, Jefferson and Cousins are the active centers (Horford has since moved to his more natural PF position after playing C for many years).

    JV may never be a 20-10 guy, those are very rare (5 last season - 4 of them PFs), but he doesn't have to be to reach a status of big impact center. Those are a dying breed, and JV seems to be poised to reach that soon. Maybe not next season (but possible if given 33-34 MPG) but within the very near future. That is truly exciting.

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    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Great post.
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    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    I think this fits with the message of the OP.

    Valanciunas averaged 14.4 points (17th) and 8.4 rebounds (6th) over 9 games.

    The tournament format tends to distort players’ statistics during group play as teams have five games in six days to decide who moves on to the elimination rounds. Once the knockout portion of the tournament begins, teams get time off between games and player rotations start to look a little more normal. Through the first five games, Valanciunas only averaged 21.4 minutes, 11.2 points and 6.8 rebounds, but he was an unbelievably efficient 78 percent shooting from the field. However, Lithuania was going to escape group play without an over reliance on Valanciunas.
    Over Lithuania’s four final games, Valanciunas averaged 29.3 minutes, 18.5 points on 62.2 percent shooting from the field, 90.3 percent shooting from the free throw line, 7.8 free throw attempts and 10.5 rebounds. It was the kind of dominant performance Lithuania was expecting from their Country’s newest star player and the kind of leadership under pressure the Raptors were hoping Valanciunas would develop this summer.
    http://probballreport.com/what-we-le...s-this-summer/



    Guy is 22. Good times coming.
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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    I guess it all depends on how many touches Casey plans to give him. We can expect the same, if not more touches for Lowry and DeRozan this year. Ross is expected to increase his output too. Amir is the only guy in the starting lineup who doesn't have plays drawn for him, leaving Jonas as the 3rd/4th option on the floor.

    Even when Vasquez and Lou enter the game, Jonas would play second fiddle.

    Let's hope his time with Hakeem changes Casey's offensive approach.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Raptors Republic All-Star JimiCliff's Avatar
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    90.3 percent shooting from the free throw line


    Filthy.

    With those mechanics, that 18 footer's going to start falling eventually.

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    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    It would be interesting to compare usage stats as well, since JV has put up the numbers he has without having many plays run for him (per DC last season). His points largely come from broken plays and cleaning up the garbage. When you look at some of the players listed in the OP, they were featured far more prominently in their team's offensive game-planning. JV is a 3rd option at best, while the top-2 options (Lowry & DeRozan) are very ball-dominant.

    With improved footwork, positioning and post-up moves (thanks Hakeem!), to go along with increased experience and confidence, the sky really is the limit for this kid!

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Chr1s1anL's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    I guess it all depends on how many touches Casey plans to give him. We can expect the same, if not more touches for Lowry and DeRozan this year. Ross is expected to increase his output too. Amir is the only guy in the starting lineup who doesn't have plays drawn for him, leaving Jonas as the 3rd/4th option on the floor.

    Even when Vasquez and Lou enter the game, Jonas would play second fiddle.

    Let's hope his time with Hakeem changes Casey's offensive approach.
    Casey's already been quoted saying that he expects Jonas to average around 15 & 10 this year. Let's just hope his D improves. That's the only thing keeping him from those numbers. With guys like Bebe and the Steamer, coach got a lot more options.


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    Raptors Republic Superstar Superjudge's Avatar
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    He needs to play defence. 20 10 means nothing, a centers worth to a squad is his ability to disrupt the other teams offence.

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    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Axel, do you even have a real job?



    Cuz it should be writing here.
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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote Superjudge wrote: View Post
    He needs to play defence. 20 10 means nothing, a centers worth to a squad is his ability to disrupt the other teams offence.
    Of course he needs to play defence but to say 20-10 means nothing is ridiculous.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote Joey wrote: View Post
    Axel, do you even have a real job?



    Cuz it should be writing here.
    Haha of course I do. I just happen to be on leave right now. Plus this didn't actually take more than 30 minutes to throw together. Bball ref makes sorting and searching so easy.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    It would be interesting to compare usage stats as well, since JV has put up the numbers he has without having many plays run for him (per DC last season). His points largely come from broken plays and cleaning up the garbage. When you look at some of the players listed in the OP, they were featured far more prominently in their team's offensive game-planning. JV is a 3rd option at best, while the top-2 options (Lowry & DeRozan) are very ball-dominant.

    With improved footwork, positioning and post-up moves (thanks Hakeem!), to go along with increased experience and confidence, the sky really is the limit for this kid!
    The usage stats for JV, Bogut and Horford are comparable. 18.5 - 17.3 - 16.4 respectively. Okafor was 21.5.

    Of the 17 players, only JV, Bogut, M Gasol, Drummond and Horford had usage below 20% with Cousins being the highest at 29.7%.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote Superjudge wrote: View Post
    He needs to play defence. 20 10 means nothing, a centers worth to a squad is his ability to disrupt the other teams offence.
    Also, JV's DRtg was 7th best from this group. Ahead of Marc Gasol, and Bogut among others.

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    Raptors Republic Starter S.R.'s Avatar
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    Great post.

    A Bogut/Horford level of impact is a very attainable goal for Jonas. His size, post potential, and shooting make his offensive ceiling higher, but Horford is a better "little things" glue-guy with better mobility and Bogut is a better defender.

    I don't know if his passing and offensive awareness can get there, but ideally Jonas becomes a very well-rounded big like Marc Gasol. A guy like that is a great anchor for a team.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Chr1s1anL's Avatar
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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    Also, JV's DRtg was 7th best from this group. Ahead of Marc Gasol, and Bogut among others.
    This why I don't like numbers. There is no way JV is a better defender than Marc Gasol. I also do agree with 20 & 10 comment. How many years did bosh average 20&10? How many of those years did we make the playoffs?


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    Raptors Republic Superstar Chr1s1anL's Avatar
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    Quote S.R. wrote: View Post
    Great post.

    A Bogut/Horford level of impact is a very attainable goal for Jonas. His size, post potential, and shooting make his offensive ceiling higher, but Horford is a better "little things" glue-guy with better mobility and Bogut is a better defender.

    I don't know if his passing and offensive awareness can get there, but ideally Jonas becomes a very well-rounded big like Marc Gasol. A guy like that is a great anchor for a team.
    If JV wins DPOY award one year. I will never say another negative thing about him


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    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
    If JV wins DPOY award one year. I will never say another negative thing about him
    You seem to have set your bar for JV much higher than you did Demar, no?

    Did you only become a Demar fan once he made the All-Star team?
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    Raptors Republic Veteran MACK11's Avatar
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    Quote Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
    If JV wins DPOY award one year. I will never say another negative thing about him


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    Go ahead and keep saying negative things about JV. When he gets more touches and better stats your the one who's gonna look like an idiot

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    Quote Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
    This why I don't like numbers. There is no way JV is a better defender than Marc Gasol. I also do agree with 20 & 10 comment. How many years did bosh average 20&10? How many of those years did we make the playoffs?


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    DRTG is heavily influenced by team numbers. DRAPM is more isolated from it.

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    Horford 2008/09 +1.8 DRAPM
    Bogut 2006/07 +2.6 DRAPM
    Okafor 2005/06 +1.5 DRAPM
    Jonas 2013/14 -1.7 DRAPM

    Jonas has a ways to go to be as effective defensively as that group was.

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