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Thread: Youth and Financial Freedom: Raps current roster beyond 2012-13

  1. #41
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Ibaka signs 4 year, $40M deal with OKC. OKC's payroll now up to around $73M and that does not include Harden's extension or even qualifying offer.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--se...homa-city.html


    Now that OKC is in to luxury tax territory, next season if OKC were to resign Harden to a $12M deal that would actually be $33.25M per season (salary plus $1.50 tax on first $5M, $1.75 on second $5M, $2.50 tax on final $2M = $21.25 in tax).

    Harden is a great player but is he worth $33.25M per season?


    **Not saying he is coming to Toronto but the odds seem greater he'd be in Toronto in 2013-14 versus OKC**


    EDIT

    In the above I forgot to take in to account the contracts that were NOT guaranteed. They have about $80M in contracts but only $59M in unguaranteed contracts (including Ibaka's new deal) for 7 players.

    This is probably not the big deal I initially thought it was as they could resign Harden for close to max or max, round out the roster with minimum contracts and be looking at a tax bill around $9-10M versus the scenario I gave above.


    EDIT 2.0:

    Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA
    Serge Ibaka deal is 4 years, $48 million, league source tells Y! Sports.
    That seems more realistic. The $10M would have been a bargain based on the contracts given out to bigs of late.
    Last edited by mcHAPPY; Sat Aug 18th, 2012 at 07:47 AM.

  2. #42
    Raptors Republic Superstar ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Ibaka signs 4 year, $40M deal with OKC. OKC's payroll now up to around $73M and that does not include Harden's extension or even qualifying offer.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--se...homa-city.html


    Now that OKC is in to luxury tax territory, next season if OKC were to resign Harden to a $12M deal that would actually be $33.25M per season (salary plus $1.50 tax on first $5M, $1.75 on second $5M, $2.50 tax on final $2M = $21.25 in tax).

    Harden is a great player but is he worth $33.25M per season?


    **Not saying he is coming to Toronto but the odds seem greater he'd be in Toronto in 2013-14 versus OKC**


    EDIT

    In the above I forgot to take in to account the contracts that were NOT guaranteed. They have about $80M in contracts but only $59M in unguaranteed contracts (including Ibaka's new deal) for 7 players.

    This is probably not the big deal I initially thought it was as they could resign Harden for close to max or max, round out the roster with minimum contracts and be looking at a tax bill around $9-10M versus the scenario I gave above.


    EDIT 2.0:



    That seems more realistic. The $10M would have been a bargain based on the contracts given out to bigs of late.
    I think that the extension of Ibaka first could foreshadow things down the road. Depending on how Harden plays this season, and how Perry Jones III pans out, big things could change for OKC.

    With your idea of Harden in Toronto makes me smile. Harden > Derozan any day of the week. Although, the pay for Derozan would certainly be cheaper if I'm not mistaken, and Derozan has this year to prove what kind of player he is.

  3. #43
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    **Time to update this with DeRozan's contract added in to the mix.**


    The Raps are younger, deeper, and (most importantly) better than they were on April 26, 2012 (last day of season 2011-12 season).

    When looking at the roster, 2 things stand out: youth and money.

    #1) Youth - players signed beyond 2012-13 (all ages as of December 31, 2012):

    John Lucas III 30
    Gray 28
    McGuire 27
    Bargnani 27
    Kleiza 27
    Lowry 26
    Amir 25
    Fields 24
    ED 23
    DD 23
    Acy 22
    TR 21
    JV 20

    #2) Money

    Gray $2.7m
    Bargnani $10.75m
    Kleiza* $4.6m
    Lowry $6.2m
    Amir $6.55m
    Fields $6.3m
    ED $3.158m
    DD $9.5M
    Acy $790k
    TR $2.232
    JV $2.938

    TOTAL: $55.718 in committed salaries for 2013-14 for 11 players (Team option on JL3 for $1.6M and McGuire for $1.1M - $58.42M for 13 players).


    Raptors also hold amnesty that could be used on Bargnani, Kleiza, or Amir to free up $4.6m-$11m. Kleiza is the only one I'd say is a possibility.


    Cap Space: depends on what happens with amnesty and BRI split. Current salary cap is $58M. Rumours of adding up to $5M. Right now, if things stayed as they are, Raps would have Calderon's Bird Rights, mid-level exception, and minimum contrats. If cap space goes up $5M, it likely does nothing for the Raptors as to use that space they'd have to renounce Calderon and the MLE. If cap space goes up $5M and Raps amnesty Kleiza (or he doesn't pick up his option), things get interesting as that would be about $10M.


    People will likely groan (and rightfully so) because all this talk of flexibility the last 2 years created nothing. The new CBA will limit luxury tax teams as they can no longer execute sign and trades and are limited to $3m mini-MLE or minimum contracts. The Raptors are not in this situation but they are hardly positioned to make a lopsided financial anymore either. I think it is fair to say flexibility in Toronto is now dead and gone.


    Some things that concern me:
    1) Still no legit franchise talent - although JV is certainly very, very promising - fingers crossed, knock on wood.
    2) playoffs far from a certainty in 2012-13 but a bottom 10 team seems unlikely as well - worst case scenario, just miss the playoffs and lose a 12-14 pick. For adding Lowry, that is worth it.
    3) $20M tied up in DeRozan, Fields, and Kleiza for 2013-14 and $15.8M in DD and Fields for 2014-15.
    4) Colangelo. No longer do I have faith in the guy. Too many similar mistakes to think he has learned from them.
    5) Few trade assets.


    Looking at everything as a whole, I am not as optimistic as I was when this original thread was started in July. However, this has been a fun exercise because I am not as down as I was since first learning of the signing of DD last night.


    Reasons for optimism:
    1) still room for players to grow. While I don't believe it, DD could play 81 games as he did in the preseason and/or be worth $9.5M per season. JV is certainly nowhere near his potential. Ross is still a promising prospect - if he becomes an Arron Afflalo I'll be tickled pink (until he is given $40M).
    2) The Raptors get defensive stops in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters.
    3) Lowry.
    4) For the first time in Colangelo's history, barring a trade, it looks like there will be continuity in the roster next season. It is highly likely that 13 guys return to the 2013-14 edition of the Toronto Raptors.


    Reason for blind and unfounded hope:
    1) Maybe somehow, someway BC puts together a trade for a difference making wing.



    So, in conclusion, it looks like the Raptors barring trades, are what they are for the next 163 games. Despite the meltdown in the last 4-5 minutes versus Indiana, that might not be a bad thing afterall. Keep pounding the ROCK.

  4. #44
    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    Nice post Matt, certainly puts things in perspective and I agree with you on it all for the most part.

    I feel like a idiot because for the longest time I was a Colangelo apologist and now I'd be fine with them firing him during the season and bringing someone more competent in.

  5. #45
    Raptors Republic Superstar Puffer's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    ...So, in conclusion, it looks like the Raptors barring trades, are what they are for the next 163 games. Despite the meltdown in the last 4-5 minutes versus Indiana, that might not be a bad thing afterall. Keep pounding the ROCK.
    Heeeees Baaaaaack.

    That's the Matt we all know and love. You threw me for a loop there Big Guy, with the pessimism creeping in. The Raps are better in numerous ways than they were last year, and there is still the possibility of BC pulling some breed of rabbit out of his hat this year or next off-season.

    It's time to start talking about a bar night game watching. Or a get together in the restaurant at the ACC. Let's start planning now. I will leave it up to the Brainiacs in this bunch to pick a fun game that the Raps are guaranteed to win. Just tell me which night and which bar, or other location...I'm in. Hey, maybe someone's house or apartment. That's even better if I don't have to negotiate downtown TO. Anything happening in the East side of Toronto?

    I guess this deserves it's own thread. Look for it.

  6. #46
    Raptors Republic Veteran NoPropsneeded's Avatar
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    lol "a fun game that the raptors are guaranteed to win" what if they lose? you guys will probably set the bar on fire. I know i would haha

  7. #47
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Reasons for optimism:
    4) For the first time in Colangelo's history, barring a trade, it looks like there will be continuity in the roster next season. It is highly likely that 13 guys return to the 2013-14 edition of the Toronto Raptors.
    An often overlooked point. When was the last time we had a stable roster continuing from one year to the next under Colangelo? I don't think it's ever happened. Chemistry and camaraderie go a long way in team sports. By inadvertently handcuffing his ability to change the roster next year, perhaps Colangelo lucks into an important lesson learned.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

  8. #48
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    http://www.cbssports.com/nba/story/2...om-last-season

    NEW YORK -- NBA Commissioner David Stern estimates revenue will be a record $5 billion in the current season, an increase of about 20 percent from the league's last full season in 2010-11.
    BRI is more complicated than I am about to say but.....

    If players and owners split 50/50 BRI, then 20% increase is likely a 10% increase in salary cap, which would add about $5.8M in cap space to Raps... unfortunately every other team would also get this benefit.

    Raps would also have amnesty clause at disposal.
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

  9. #49
    Raptors Republic Superstar enlightenment's Avatar
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    I dont think the cap gets raised by 5.8 mil..

    But, I do think that with Calderons expiring, Bargnanis imminent trade, and our amnesty still available, we can make big moves this upcoming offseason, maybe buying a draft pick we like, or grabbing backup pointguards and centres (Our star SF was already grabbed with Calderon/Bargnani trade)

  10. #50
    Raptors Republic All-Star Miekenstien's Avatar
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    I dont think the cap gets raised by 5.8 mil..

    But, I do think that with Calderons expiring, Bargnanis imminent trade, and our amnesty still available, we can make big moves this upcoming offseason, maybe buying a draft pick we like, or grabbing backup pointguards and centres (Our star SF was already grabbed with Calderon/Bargnani trade)
    i tend to think bargs has at least until the trade deadline. bc has waited so many years already and we have a brutal schedule to start the year. the only trade i can see as imminent would be after lowry gets healthy and joses' recent triple double and 18 assist game that someone comes asking for him.

  11. #51
    Raptors Republic Superstar enlightenment's Avatar
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    Youll see, Andrea + Jose at peak value with net us some grand deserts.

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