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Thread: According to Slam: Raptors among five teams to make a huge jump

  1. #41
    Raptors Republic Starter theycallmeZZ's Avatar
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    Quote Risk Mgmt wrote: View Post
    - How does Field equal auto 3 win...like i said that formula makes no sense you need 5 on court player work as team

    It's not Fields giving us the wins, it's because Butler impacted us so negatively that his removal netted us 3
    TORONTOOOOOO RAPTORSSSSSS

    NEVER FORGET... NUMERO OCHO 👌 #saluteJose

  2. #42
    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Quote Risk Mgmt wrote: View Post
    I will play devil on this

    - Last year was short with many BACKtoBACK and even BACKtoBACKtoBACK...not fair comparison
    - I never understood a 1 player can account for a win ---you need 5 players
    - Can you do the opposite, were a player equals losses?
    - How does Field equal auto 3 win...like i said that formula makes no sense you need 5 on court player work as team
    - So lack of tanking will get us only 2 wins....
    - Other teams improving means we lose 3 ---but we also improved so I had 25 ...makes no sense
    - But I will agree with you on the team trainning camp part

    Just killing time on a Friday...not much action here at ACC parking lot

    Peace
    This is all hypothetical.. just playing.. No idea what is going to happen, and my justification was just made out of jest. But I do think 1 player can make a difference.. it happens all the time in the NBA. It's probably the only team sport where one player can make a radical difference in net wins and losses.

  3. #43
    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Quote theycallmeZZ wrote: View Post
    It's not Fields giving us the wins, it's because Butler impacted us so negatively that his removal netted us 3
    Yup.. that's what I was thinking. It's the loss of Butler rather than the addition of Fields that will positively impact the squad.

  4. #44
    Raptors Republic Rookie pillowmint's Avatar
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    Quote LBF wrote: View Post
    Well... ?
    I quit my job. Had to buck the odds
    i8theball.com it's a website...about, you know....basketball.

  5. #45
    Raptors Republic Rookie
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    Quote pillowmint wrote: View Post
    I quit my job. Had to buck the odds
    I trust you quit for something better....if yes, congrats and all the best
    It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I beat people up.


    Muhammad Ali

  6. #46
    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
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    I say 33 wins, and that is about as happy-go-lucky-optimistic as I can possibly get.

    That's the upper limit to what I could possibly predict here: a 40% win percentage with 2 new players in the starting lineup that are marginally better than their predecessors (until proven otherwise) and 2 rookies that will play significant minutes and undoubtedly hit rookie walls.

  7. #47
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    I will setup a Big Lotto BALL structure placing within it 1.5 balls with a "W" written on it. Another 2.5 balls with "L" on it.
    then draw a ball for each scheduled game. I think that should give decent results

    Let me update this once i see vegas odds ---
    It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I beat people up.


    Muhammad Ali

  8. #48
    Raptors Republic Starter Quirk's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    To clarify, I mean no major injuries that cost extended stretches of games (like 10+ games) to a major player - mainly Bargnani and Lowry.
    Intersting that you're starting with WP numbers, and worrying about Bargnani being injured for any strech of time. The WP crowd considers Bargnani a hitorically unproductive player, while rating both his backups, Johnson and Davis, very highly. Thus from a WP view, the more minutes Johnson and Davis can get from Bargnani, the more wins. Personally, I think Bargnani is an outlier in the metric, and not reallly the worst player of all time, but none the less, I'm not so worried about PF with the depth the team has there.

    Lowry is of course rated worse than Calderon by WP, but I view him as the key to the season because I think a Casey team will work overall better with him. Still, I'm hoping Calderon stays and plays 20minuts in a reserve roll, with Lowry moving over to off guard for a few minutes a game to accomodate.

    I'm predicting 40 wins, with the addition of Fields, Lowry, Ross and JV helping Casey making Toronto a Top 5 defensive team that teams hate to play.

  9. #49
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
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    Is there a prize for the person whom guesses correctly?

  10. #50
    Raptors Republic Starter Mess's Avatar
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    Quote ebrian wrote: View Post
    I say 33 wins, and that is about as happy-go-lucky-optimistic as I can possibly get.

    That's the upper limit to what I could possibly predict here: a 40% win percentage with 2 new players in the starting lineup that are marginally better than their predecessors (until proven otherwise) and 2 rookies that will play significant minutes and undoubtedly hit rookie walls.
    That's only 5 wins over last year's win % (which extrapolated to 82 games would be 28 wins).

    With the Raptors (hopefully) not tanking again at the end of the season by auditioning D league players, that might cover those 5 games on it's own.

    And if you set aside individual player evaluations, a full training camp will be a big positive too.

  11. #51
    Raptors Republic Starter Mess's Avatar
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    Quote Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    Is there a prize for the person whom guesses correctly?
    We should have a pool.

  12. #52
    Raptors Republic All-Star Letter N's Avatar
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    Quote RaptorReuben wrote: View Post
    Remember, a number of people did say if this team was fully healthy, there would be a possibility they made the 8th seed. I remember a game Leo or Jack said this specific thing...
    Oh Leo or Jack said that? well then it must be true.

  13. #53
    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
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    Quote Letter N wrote: View Post
    Oh Leo or Jack said that? well then it must be true.
    I trust Jack...Leo not so much

  14. #54
    mcsemcp73
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    Raptors will go 44-38

    Atlanta (rebuilding), Orlando( rebuilding with or without D, Boston ( to old even with Rondo), New York (Melo) and
    Chicago (without DR need a bench)

    1)Miami
    2)New Jersey
    3)Indiana
    4)Philadelphia
    5)Milwaukee
    6)Toronto
    7) Washington
    8) Chicago (maybe)

  15. #55
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer Matt52's Avatar
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    Quote Quirk wrote: View Post
    Intersting that you're starting with WP numbers, and worrying about Bargnani being injured for any strech of time. The WP crowd considers Bargnani a hitorically unproductive player, while rating both his backups, Johnson and Davis, very highly. Thus from a WP view, the more minutes Johnson and Davis can get from Bargnani, the more wins. Personally, I think Bargnani is an outlier in the metric, and not reallly the worst player of all time, but none the less, I'm not so worried about PF with the depth the team has there.

    Lowry is of course rated worse than Calderon by WP, but I view him as the key to the season because I think a Casey team will work overall better with him. Still, I'm hoping Calderon stays and plays 20minuts in a reserve roll, with Lowry moving over to off guard for a few minutes a game to accomodate.

    I'm predicting 40 wins, with the addition of Fields, Lowry, Ross and JV helping Casey making Toronto a Top 5 defensive team that teams hate to play.
    Did you read my original post? And if you did (and I mean this sincerely and respectfully), did you read it all? I am guilty of having read something wrong, misinterpreted, or skipped something altogether. Here is my original post:

    Assuming no major injuries, I'm going 38-44 and an 8th seed.

    TheNBAGeek.com comparison engine gives the 11 players with NBA experience currently under contract a collective 33.7 wins produced. I am going to assume Acy adds 0.3, Ross adds 1.5, and JV adds 2.5 to reach 38.

    Assuming Bargnani can remain healthy and be more like the player he showed in about 17 games versus the other 14 that will likely add wins (versus the negative he currently is). Considering in 2010-11 Bargnani produced a negative 6.4 wins (I guess that would be a positive 6.4 losses produced) having him go positive is not out of the question. DeRozan not having to be the focal point of the offense might improve his efficiency and take him positive in the wins produced as well. The Raps then might be pushing .500!

    And good Lord don't get me started if Fields returns to the 11.6 wins he produced in 2010-11 as a rookie and Lowry goes back to 9.3. Could they be plus .500?!?!?! I have to calm down here.

    Considering the collective 38 wins from the roster in 2010-11 and the 33.7 plus my rookie phantom numbers of 38 again, I'm going with 38 wins and 8th seed..... final answer.
    Considering how horrible Bargnani played in 13-15 of his 31 games last year and contributing 'just' -0.9W while having contributed -6.4W in '10-11, him going positive is not out of the question with the assumption he plays more like the other 16-18 games.

    A lot of this is just fun on my part with the WP. Games are played on the court, not calculators. And I very much agree with the bold in your post.
    Last edited by Matt52; Fri Aug 3rd, 2012 at 01:44 PM.

  16. #56
    Raptors Republic Rookie pillowmint's Avatar
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    Quote Mess wrote: View Post
    We should have a pool.
    I'd be game for that for sure! I'm saying the Raps go 36-46, and I for one am cool with that. Again, try and remember we were (I think, I'm sure someone here remembers) 28th in defense before Casey got here and then we bumped up to 17th...that is stunning!

    I'm not kidding either. A team that wasn't exactly brimming with all stars, or defensive specialists, that is an incredible feat. So I think this year with the longer schedule and new talent I see us being very close to a playoff team, but maybe just a little outside. I also think that we have the ability to go from 17th to potentially a top 10 defensive team. I'm excited!!!!

    I also hope I'm wrong and that our record is better, so don't come at me with the hatin'!
    i8theball.com it's a website...about, you know....basketball.

  17. #57
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    Default Risk Mgmt

    If the Raptors haaawt dance pack remains the same and they keep the Dino dude mascot thats +7 wins right?

    All my predictions....save this for later:

    1) Demar will be better then last year may even crack the All-Star team
    2) Canada's Total Medal Count in 2012 London Olympics 17 medals
    USA tops with 99
    Russia with 82
    China with 67

    3) Raptors go .500 +/- 2
    4) BIG V second in Rookie of the Year
    It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I beat people up.


    Muhammad Ali

  18. #58
    Raptors Republic Veteran NoPropsneeded's Avatar
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    Bargs for MVP!

  19. #59
    Raptors Republic Starter charlz's Avatar
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    It is very hard to predict if the raps will make a big jump next season.

    The team seems to be very blue collar and unlikely to be out hustled on many nights. That may or may not translate in to the type of result Rap fans are looking for.

    35-47 would not surprise me
    44-38 would not surprise me

    The biggest problem is there are so many question marks
    INJURIES?? Calderon Lowry Bargs
    Rookies?? JV TR
    "I may be wrong ... but I doubt it"

  20. #60
    Raptors Republic Rookie JackfromNZ's Avatar
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    Quote Risk Mgmt wrote: View Post
    It seems the media is placing a playoff expectation on the Raptors
    I'm also placing a playoff expectation for the raptors. I mean it won't be easy but we have a chance! I also thank god every day that we are not in the west otherwise we would have no chance

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