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According to Slam: Raptors among five teams to make a huge jump

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  • #76
    Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Did you read my original post?
    Sure, and I wasn't trying to be critical of it, in fact I think my view is similar to yours. I also look at WP a lot, one reason is that the WP community provides so much analysis and nice tools like nerdnumbers and thenbageek, but I don't take the numbers as gospel. In fact I believe they produce a lot of outliers since they have no effiieny stats for rebounding, and thus overvalue players that get a lot of rebounds and take few shots. Two years ago we had two examples of WP's rediculousness at it's extremes with Reggie Evans and Andrea Bargnani.

    My only real point was that we are deep at PF, and so I don't see Bargnani's health and/or performance as being critical to our season. For example, WP does rate both Davis and Johnson as being more productive than Bargnani even during his 13 game tour de force. So, even if WP is undervalueing Bargnani, in the case that he was injured, I'd be OK running with Johnson/Davis/Kleiza at the 4.

    I also think Bargnani's earlier -6+ WP is pretty silly, it just goes to show that he is not the kind of player that WP rates well, largely because of the lack of any efficiancy statistics for rebounding, it can't isolate the rebounds that where simply scooped up by his team mates, like Evans. It's well know that having a great individual rebounder on your team does not necessarily make a huge impact on team rebounds.

    To me, the key to the season is how much adding Lowry, Fields, JV and Ross will contribute to a Casey defense. If these players and another year of DC couching can help Toronto become a defensive powerhouse, that will make more of a difference than what happens at the PF position, IMO.

    If I had to chose one player as the key, I would say Fields, with Lowry a close second only because he is displacing Jose, who is already a great player. I doubt Lowry will individually give us more production than Jose would have, however, his suitability for a Casey team will have a bigger overall team influence.
    Last edited by Quirk; Mon Aug 6, 2012, 07:41 PM.

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    • #77
      RaptorReuben wrote: View Post
      You must seem to have something against me. Seems like everything I say, you take like I've offended you in the past...

      Oh well, bully me over the internet all you want lol, won't change what I say.
      I don't even look at who posts stuff I just reply how I reply. Don't take it as bullying, take it as a completely different opinion.

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      • #78
        NoPropsneeded wrote: View Post
        We'll be 2nd in the atlantic behind the C's
        The Atlantic Division will be the strongest division in the East next year. Realistically, I see Toronto 3rd over New York and Philadelphia.
        Twitter: @ReubenJRD • NBA, Raptors writer for Daily Hive Vancouver, Toronto.

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        • #79
          Mess wrote: View Post
          That's only 5 wins over last year's win % (which extrapolated to 82 games would be 28 wins).

          With the Raptors (hopefully) not tanking again at the end of the season by auditioning D league players, that might cover those 5 games on it's own.

          And if you set aside individual player evaluations, a full training camp will be a big positive too.
          Am I in the minority thinking the raptors did not tank last year? I think that might be an undeserved compliment. We beat some good teams down the stretch. Half our team was (mostly legitimately) injured. We weren't good enough to tank. That was us. Don't count on a boost from that next year.

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          • #80
            Jclaw wrote: View Post
            Am I in the minority thinking the raptors did not tank last year? I think that might be an undeserved compliment. We beat some good teams down the stretch. Half our team was (mostly legitimately) injured. We weren't good enough to tank. That was us. Don't count on a boost from that next year.
            The Raptors held out Jose and Andrea for extended periods of time when they could have played. They made no attempt to improve their roster from the offseason on (unless ofcourse one believed Rasual Butler, Jamaal Magloire or Carter were attempts at improving). They traded a useful player (Barbossa) for a 2nd round pick. They scoured the d-league to fill roster spots and actually bothered to give Alabi minutes. Colangelo's entire talking point last season was cap flexibility.

            While I don't think the players themselves under Casey did anything close to tanking, I think the Colangelo and management clearly attempted to.

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            • #81
              LBF wrote: View Post
              The raptors aren't making the playoffs. They're still lacking some things, i feel anyways. There are always injuries and regressions. Jose had a career year last year, but, he's not the starter anymore and is on the trade block.
              There is one difference right there. Alot of little things went right last year that seem flukey.
              Let's put this into perspective. How do we define "huge jump"? To me a huge jump would be 10-15 more wins. Philly got the 8th seed last year with an extrapolated 43 wins, this in a season where the east was supposed to be highly improved. The Raptors had an extrapolated record last year of 29-53 so they were essentially 14 games back of 8th seed when the dust settled. If the Raptors do take a huge jump then they will be in the hunt for 8th seed.

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              • #82
                Craiger wrote: View Post
                The Raptors held out Jose and Andrea for extended periods of time when they could have played. They made no attempt to improve their roster from the offseason on (unless ofcourse one believed Rasual Butler, Jamaal Magloire or Carter were attempts at improving). They traded a useful player (Barbossa) for a 2nd round pick. They scoured the d-league to fill roster spots and actually bothered to give Alabi minutes. Colangelo's entire talking point last season was cap flexibility.

                While I don't think the players themselves under Casey did anything close to tanking, I think the Colangelo and management clearly attempted to.
                I agree with that. I guess the difference i was pointing out was that, although the motive of the season as a whole was to tank, they didn't do the same tank job at the end when it counted.

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                • #83
                  Garbo wrote: View Post
                  42-40 in the BEST case scenario would grab the Raptors an eight seed. Which sets up your next statement.. You think the Raptors would take the Heat to seven games in the first round?
                  I like hanging around people like you
                  Probably already mentioned in this thread but do you think the Sixers would win in 6 against the Bulls this year. Anything can happen. Does that make the Raptors contenders? Nope. But anything can happen.

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                  • #84
                    Pill wrote: View Post
                    Probably already mentioned in this thread but do you think the Sixers would win in 6 against the Bulls this year. Anything can happen. Does that make the Raptors contenders? Nope. But anything can happen.
                    Bulls were not where NEAR healthy. Noah and Rose out, Deng playing hurt, no question I wasn't surprised with the outcome.

                    Anything can happen, but at some point optimism can be a downfall. Low expectations with surprises, are far better than high expectation and disappointments.
                    Twitter: @ReubenJRD • NBA, Raptors writer for Daily Hive Vancouver, Toronto.

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