So .. to look at someone like AB that is a -6 and suggest that means that his team would have won six more games without him is non-sensical .. or that Humphries added 8 wins to the Nets last year .. I dont think so.
I like that you have fun with it Matt .. but way to many people that this stat way too seriously ..
I think it'll all come down to how they start the season. I believe our first 7 games are against tough teams. We go +.500 in the first 10 games we make the playoffs. We don't, we will be fighting to crack .500 ball all season.
Had Bargnani not been hurt last season you could reasonably argue that the Raptors could have been in the hunt for the 8th seed. This season I feel they have a really good chance at getting in. They won't need a .500 record for 8th seed.
The raptors aren't making the playoffs. They're still lacking some things, i feel anyways. There are always injuries and regressions. Jose had a career year last year, but, he's not the starter anymore and is on the trade block.
There is one difference right there. Alot of little things went right last year that seem flukey.
Going back to negativity that you showed here last season?
I think the playoffs is a possibility, and I see the bottom for us as, BARELY missing that 8th spot. Depending on how all the other teams play out and with their new additions, Toronto may very well be looking at a first round exit. Which I would not be unhappy with quite frankly. Any step towards the playoffs and earning recognition is the best for this team as they grow.
This team is very capable of being an above .500 team, but also capable of barely missing the playoffs like 2010.
We'll be 2nd in the atlantic behind the C's
My only real point was that we are deep at PF, and so I don't see Bargnani's health and/or performance as being critical to our season. For example, WP does rate both Davis and Johnson as being more productive than Bargnani even during his 13 game tour de force. So, even if WP is undervalueing Bargnani, in the case that he was injured, I'd be OK running with Johnson/Davis/Kleiza at the 4.
I also think Bargnani's earlier -6+ WP is pretty silly, it just goes to show that he is not the kind of player that WP rates well, largely because of the lack of any efficiancy statistics for rebounding, it can't isolate the rebounds that where simply scooped up by his team mates, like Evans. It's well know that having a great individual rebounder on your team does not necessarily make a huge impact on team rebounds.
To me, the key to the season is how much adding Lowry, Fields, JV and Ross will contribute to a Casey defense. If these players and another year of DC couching can help Toronto become a defensive powerhouse, that will make more of a difference than what happens at the PF position, IMO.
If I had to chose one player as the key, I would say Fields, with Lowry a close second only because he is displacing Jose, who is already a great player. I doubt Lowry will individually give us more production than Jose would have, however, his suitability for a Casey team will have a bigger overall team influence.
Last edited by Quirk; Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 07:41 PM.
While I don't think the players themselves under Casey did anything close to tanking, I think the Colangelo and management clearly attempted to.
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