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According to Slam: Raptors among five teams to make a huge jump

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  • #46
    I say 33 wins, and that is about as happy-go-lucky-optimistic as I can possibly get.

    That's the upper limit to what I could possibly predict here: a 40% win percentage with 2 new players in the starting lineup that are marginally better than their predecessors (until proven otherwise) and 2 rookies that will play significant minutes and undoubtedly hit rookie walls.
    your pal,
    ebrian

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    • #47
      I will setup a Big Lotto BALL structure placing within it 1.5 balls with a "W" written on it. Another 2.5 balls with "L" on it.
      then draw a ball for each scheduled game. I think that should give decent results

      Let me update this once i see vegas odds ---
      It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I beat people up.


      Muhammad Ali

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      • #48
        Matt52 wrote: View Post
        To clarify, I mean no major injuries that cost extended stretches of games (like 10+ games) to a major player - mainly Bargnani and Lowry.
        Intersting that you're starting with WP numbers, and worrying about Bargnani being injured for any strech of time. The WP crowd considers Bargnani a hitorically unproductive player, while rating both his backups, Johnson and Davis, very highly. Thus from a WP view, the more minutes Johnson and Davis can get from Bargnani, the more wins. Personally, I think Bargnani is an outlier in the metric, and not reallly the worst player of all time, but none the less, I'm not so worried about PF with the depth the team has there.

        Lowry is of course rated worse than Calderon by WP, but I view him as the key to the season because I think a Casey team will work overall better with him. Still, I'm hoping Calderon stays and plays 20minuts in a reserve roll, with Lowry moving over to off guard for a few minutes a game to accomodate.

        I'm predicting 40 wins, with the addition of Fields, Lowry, Ross and JV helping Casey making Toronto a Top 5 defensive team that teams hate to play.

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        • #49
          Is there a prize for the person whom guesses correctly?

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          • #50
            ebrian wrote: View Post
            I say 33 wins, and that is about as happy-go-lucky-optimistic as I can possibly get.

            That's the upper limit to what I could possibly predict here: a 40% win percentage with 2 new players in the starting lineup that are marginally better than their predecessors (until proven otherwise) and 2 rookies that will play significant minutes and undoubtedly hit rookie walls.
            That's only 5 wins over last year's win % (which extrapolated to 82 games would be 28 wins).

            With the Raptors (hopefully) not tanking again at the end of the season by auditioning D league players, that might cover those 5 games on it's own.

            And if you set aside individual player evaluations, a full training camp will be a big positive too.
            Two beer away from being two beers away.

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            • #51
              Mediumcore wrote: View Post
              Is there a prize for the person whom guesses correctly?
              We should have a pool.
              Two beer away from being two beers away.

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              • #52
                RaptorReuben wrote: View Post
                Remember, a number of people did say if this team was fully healthy, there would be a possibility they made the 8th seed. I remember a game Leo or Jack said this specific thing...
                Oh Leo or Jack said that? well then it must be true.

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                • #53
                  Letter N wrote: View Post
                  Oh Leo or Jack said that? well then it must be true.
                  I trust Jack...Leo not so much
                  For still frame photograph of me reading the DeRozan thread please refer to my avatar

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                  • #54
                    Raptors will go 44-38

                    Atlanta (rebuilding), Orlando( rebuilding with or without D, Boston ( to old even with Rondo), New York (Melo) and
                    Chicago (without DR need a bench)

                    1)Miami
                    2)New Jersey
                    3)Indiana
                    4)Philadelphia
                    5)Milwaukee
                    6)Toronto
                    7) Washington
                    8) Chicago (maybe)

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                    • #55
                      Quirk wrote: View Post
                      Intersting that you're starting with WP numbers, and worrying about Bargnani being injured for any strech of time. The WP crowd considers Bargnani a hitorically unproductive player, while rating both his backups, Johnson and Davis, very highly. Thus from a WP view, the more minutes Johnson and Davis can get from Bargnani, the more wins. Personally, I think Bargnani is an outlier in the metric, and not reallly the worst player of all time, but none the less, I'm not so worried about PF with the depth the team has there.

                      Lowry is of course rated worse than Calderon by WP, but I view him as the key to the season because I think a Casey team will work overall better with him. Still, I'm hoping Calderon stays and plays 20minuts in a reserve roll, with Lowry moving over to off guard for a few minutes a game to accomodate.

                      I'm predicting 40 wins, with the addition of Fields, Lowry, Ross and JV helping Casey making Toronto a Top 5 defensive team that teams hate to play.
                      Did you read my original post? And if you did (and I mean this sincerely and respectfully), did you read it all? I am guilty of having read something wrong, misinterpreted, or skipped something altogether. Here is my original post:

                      Assuming no major injuries, I'm going 38-44 and an 8th seed.

                      TheNBAGeek.com comparison engine gives the 11 players with NBA experience currently under contract a collective 33.7 wins produced. I am going to assume Acy adds 0.3, Ross adds 1.5, and JV adds 2.5 to reach 38.

                      Assuming Bargnani can remain healthy and be more like the player he showed in about 17 games versus the other 14 that will likely add wins (versus the negative he currently is). Considering in 2010-11 Bargnani produced a negative 6.4 wins (I guess that would be a positive 6.4 losses produced) having him go positive is not out of the question. DeRozan not having to be the focal point of the offense might improve his efficiency and take him positive in the wins produced as well. The Raps then might be pushing .500!

                      And good Lord don't get me started if Fields returns to the 11.6 wins he produced in 2010-11 as a rookie and Lowry goes back to 9.3. Could they be plus .500?!?!?! I have to calm down here.

                      Considering the collective 38 wins from the roster in 2010-11 and the 33.7 plus my rookie phantom numbers of 38 again, I'm going with 38 wins and 8th seed..... final answer.
                      Considering how horrible Bargnani played in 13-15 of his 31 games last year and contributing 'just' -0.9W while having contributed -6.4W in '10-11, him going positive is not out of the question with the assumption he plays more like the other 16-18 games.

                      A lot of this is just fun on my part with the WP. Games are played on the court, not calculators. And I very much agree with the bold in your post.
                      Last edited by mcHAPPY; Fri Aug 3, 2012, 01:44 PM.

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                      • #56
                        Mess wrote: View Post
                        We should have a pool.
                        I'd be game for that for sure! I'm saying the Raps go 36-46, and I for one am cool with that. Again, try and remember we were (I think, I'm sure someone here remembers) 28th in defense before Casey got here and then we bumped up to 17th...that is stunning!

                        I'm not kidding either. A team that wasn't exactly brimming with all stars, or defensive specialists, that is an incredible feat. So I think this year with the longer schedule and new talent I see us being very close to a playoff team, but maybe just a little outside. I also think that we have the ability to go from 17th to potentially a top 10 defensive team. I'm excited!!!!

                        I also hope I'm wrong and that our record is better, so don't come at me with the hatin'!
                        i8theball.com it's a website...about, you know....basketball.

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                        • #57
                          Risk Mgmt

                          If the Raptors haaawt dance pack remains the same and they keep the Dino dude mascot thats +7 wins right?

                          All my predictions....save this for later:

                          1) Demar will be better then last year may even crack the All-Star team
                          2) Canada's Total Medal Count in 2012 London Olympics 17 medals
                          USA tops with 99
                          Russia with 82
                          China with 67

                          3) Raptors go .500 +/- 2
                          4) BIG V second in Rookie of the Year
                          It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I beat people up.


                          Muhammad Ali

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                          • #58
                            Bargs for MVP!

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                            • #59
                              It is very hard to predict if the raps will make a big jump next season.

                              The team seems to be very blue collar and unlikely to be out hustled on many nights. That may or may not translate in to the type of result Rap fans are looking for.

                              35-47 would not surprise me
                              44-38 would not surprise me

                              The biggest problem is there are so many question marks
                              INJURIES?? Calderon Lowry Bargs
                              Rookies?? JV TR
                              "I may be wrong ... but I doubt it"

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                              • #60
                                Risk Mgmt wrote: View Post
                                It seems the media is placing a playoff expectation on the Raptors
                                I'm also placing a playoff expectation for the raptors. I mean it won't be easy but we have a chance! I also thank god every day that we are not in the west otherwise we would have no chance

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