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Thread: Predicting stats for next season

  1. #1
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    Default Predicting stats for next season

    I know this might not be our final roster but there is always reason to predict and speculate.
    So this is my prediction on stats for the team as it stands:

    5's & 4's
    Aaron Gray 3.1 PPG 4.8 RPG 0.5 BPG
    Amir Johnson 7.5 PPG 6.4 RPG 1.1 BPG
    Andrea Bargnani 23.8 PPG 5.8 RPG 0.3 BPG
    Ed Davis 5.1 PPG 6.1 RPG 0.8 BPG
    Jonas Valanciunas 6.6 PPG 7.2 RPG 1.2 BPG
    Quincy Acy 2.4 PPG 4.2 RPG 0.3 BPG

    3's & 2's
    Alan Anderson 3.2 PPG 1.6 RPG 1.5 APG
    Demar Derozan 18.5 PPG 3.3 RPG 2.2 APG
    Landry Fields 8.3 PPG 4.9 RPG 1.9 APG
    Linas Kleiza 9.1 PPG 3.5 RPG 1.7 APG
    Terrence Ross 7.2 PPG 3.0 RPG 2.1 APG

    1's
    John Lucas III 2.3 PPG 2.8 APG 0.3 SPG
    Jose Calderon 7.3 PPG 6.4 APG 0.7 SPG
    Kyle Lowry 12.1 PPG 8.1 APG 1.6 SPG

    Stats don't tell the whole story. But it's fun speculating (well at least for me it is).
    Agree/disagree with my stats? Can't be bothered? Think it's stupid?
    Join in, debate and let's predict some stats!
    Last edited by flamingtimbits; Mon Aug 13th, 2012 at 10:04 PM.

  2. #2
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Just for perspective, you have us averaging 116.5 pts/game next year.

    We averaged just 90.7 pts/game last year (3rd worst). The Nuggets led the league at 104.1 pts/game.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Nilanka, you're assuming every single one of those players play every single game.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar isaacthompson's Avatar
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    Calderon has averaged around 8-9 APG over the course of his career...that number will definitely go down if he is demoted to full-time backup PG
    Twitter - @thekid_it

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote Marz wrote: View Post
    Nilanka, you're assuming every single one of those players play every single game.
    Nope. Just adding averages. Individual players' PPG adds up to a team's PPG. That's how the math always works.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Pts/game scored by a team and total pts/game by all players aren't equal no?

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote flamingtimbits wrote: View Post
    Pts/game scored by a team and total pts/game by all players aren't equal no?
    If we're talking averages, they definitely equal.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    If we have a hypothetical team consisting of just 5 players who all average 20 ppg, their team will average 100 ppg throughout the course of the season.

    The same logic applies to the OP, but with 14 players instead of 5.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

  9. #9
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Actually, I think I'm wrong. The numbers would have to be adjusted per 48 minutes, for the individual PPGs and team PPGs to equal (I think)...

    I stand corrected.
    Last edited by Nilanka; Mon Aug 13th, 2012 at 04:48 PM.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    If the team has 5 players and if they play in every game then yes. But this won't be the case. Not everyone will play in every game. Let's say there are 6 players: 5 averaging 20 ppg and 1 averaging 5 ppg. Then if and when 4 players averaging 20 ppg and the one averaging 5 ppg played in a match, wouldn't that account to 85 points only?

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    Quote isaacthompson wrote: View Post
    Calderon has averaged around 8-9 APG over the course of his career...that number will definitely go down if he is demoted to full-time backup PG
    I meant for his APG to decrease but for some reason I actually thought Caldy was averaging 10+ APG!

  12. #12
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote flamingtimbits wrote: View Post
    If the team has 5 players and if they play in every game then yes. But this won't be the case. Not everyone will play in every game. Let's say there are 6 players: 5 averaging 20 ppg and 1 averaging 5 ppg. Then if and when 4 players averaging 20 ppg and the one averaging 5 ppg played in a match, wouldn't that account to 85 points only?
    Well, in this case 85 points is just 1 game, not an average for the whole season.
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Well, in this case 85 points is just 1 game, not an average for the whole season.
    Let's say the hypothetical season only has 3 games. They scored 85 points in the first game. In the next game they score 100 points with those 5 players, then all 6 players play in the final game, which means they score 105 points. That will tally to 290 points scored in the season, and an average of 96.7 ppg scored by the team not 105 ppg

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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Nope. Just adding averages. Individual players' PPG adds up to a team's PPG. That's how the math always works.
    Glad you admitted to being wrong, because math only "always works" that way when you make incorrect assumptions.

    Your mistake was in assuming that every player would play every single one of the 82 games. I highly doubt that has ever happened in the history of the NBA.

    Just one quick tally of last season's averages would point out your mistake. 90.7 average PPG for the entire team, yet if you add up all the players' PPG, you'd have 141.7 PPG. Even if you take out guys like Anderson, Dentmon, Carter and Butler, it's still way over 90.7. There's no need to create hypos, making it more difficult than it really is, because the answer is right there in front of you guys.

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    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote flamingtimbits wrote: View Post
    I know this might not be our final roster but there is always reason to predict and speculate.
    So this is my prediction on stats for the team as it stands:

    5's & 4's
    Aaron Gray 3.1 PPG 4.8 RPG 0.5 BPG
    Amir Johnson 7.5 PPG 6.4 RPG 1.1 BPG
    Andrea Bargnani 23.8 PPG 5.8 RPG 0.3 BPG
    Ed Davis 5.1 PPG 6.1 RPG 0.8 BPG
    Jonas Valanciunas 6.6 PPG 7.2 RPG 1.2 BPG
    Quincy Acy 2.4 PPG 4.2 RPG 0.3 BPG

    3's & 2's
    Alan Anderson 3.2 PPG 1.6 RPG 1.5 APG
    Demar Derozan 18.5 PPG 3.3 RPG 2.2 APG
    Landry Fields 8.3 PPG 4.9 RPG 1.9 APG
    Linas Kleiza 9.1 PPG 3.5 RPG 1.7 APG
    Terrence Ross 7.2 PPG 3.0 RPG 2.1 APG

    1's
    John Lucas III 2.3 PPG 2.8 APG 0.3 SPG
    Jose Calderon 7.3 PPG 9.4 APG 0.7 SPG
    Kyle Lowry 12.1 PPG 8.1 APG 1.6 SPG

    Stats don't tell the whole story. But it's fun speculating (well at least for me it is).
    Agree/disagree with my stats? Can't be bothered? Think it's stupid?
    Join in, debate and let's predict some stats!
    I estimated Andrea to have a rebound or two better, and Kyle Lowry to be a 16 point scorer.

  16. #16
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    the formula is total points scored by any one player divided by the number of games played - that is points per game - it has nothing to do with teams total ppg

  17. #17
    Raptors Republic Superstar Mack North's Avatar
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    Jose with 9.4 APG off the bench! That's awesome haha, can't wait!

  18. #18
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    Jose will just feed Val and rack up assists like crazy off the bench
    TORONTOOOOOO RAPTORSSSSSS

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    Quote flamingtimbits wrote: View Post
    So this is my prediction on stats for the team as it stands:
    Stats don't tell the whole story. But it's fun speculating (well at least for me it is).
    Agree/disagree with my stats? Can't be bothered? Think it's stupid?
    Join in, debate and let's predict some stats!
    I'd suggest a different format: predict stats PER 48 MINUTES for each player. You can compare to last year's per 48 stats - they should be pretty similar. The predict what percent of the 48 minutes for each position goes to each player (e.g., Lowry gets 67% of the PG minutes; Calderon gets 33% of the PG minutes).

    If you do it this way, you're much more likely to be accurate. Per 48 minutes played stats are meaningful. Stats per game are pretty random. Play more minutes (and take more shots) = higher stats even if you're crap.

    P.S. To get rid of the shots factor you would need to say what percent of the shots will each player take, multiplied by their shooting percentage. That starts looking a lot like proper stats, then ... clearly no fun.

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    This thread reminds me of math in grade 7:

    If Jose gets one assist while on a train travelling to Chicago at 76km/h and Lowry steals twice in the first quarter en route to Dallas at 50km/h, how long will it take for Andrea to get 10 boards?
    Walking like I'm already there.

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