Thread: Predicting stats for next season

1. Predicting stats for next season

I know this might not be our final roster but there is always reason to predict and speculate.
So this is my prediction on stats for the team as it stands:

5's & 4's
Aaron Gray 3.1 PPG 4.8 RPG 0.5 BPG
Amir Johnson 7.5 PPG 6.4 RPG 1.1 BPG
Andrea Bargnani 23.8 PPG 5.8 RPG 0.3 BPG
Ed Davis 5.1 PPG 6.1 RPG 0.8 BPG
Jonas Valanciunas 6.6 PPG 7.2 RPG 1.2 BPG
Quincy Acy 2.4 PPG 4.2 RPG 0.3 BPG

3's & 2's
Alan Anderson 3.2 PPG 1.6 RPG 1.5 APG
Demar Derozan 18.5 PPG 3.3 RPG 2.2 APG
Landry Fields 8.3 PPG 4.9 RPG 1.9 APG
Linas Kleiza 9.1 PPG 3.5 RPG 1.7 APG
Terrence Ross 7.2 PPG 3.0 RPG 2.1 APG

1's
John Lucas III 2.3 PPG 2.8 APG 0.3 SPG
Jose Calderon 7.3 PPG 6.4 APG 0.7 SPG
Kyle Lowry 12.1 PPG 8.1 APG 1.6 SPG

Stats don't tell the whole story. But it's fun speculating (well at least for me it is).
Agree/disagree with my stats? Can't be bothered? Think it's stupid?
Join in, debate and let's predict some stats!

2. Just for perspective, you have us averaging 116.5 pts/game next year.

We averaged just 90.7 pts/game last year (3rd worst). The Nuggets led the league at 104.1 pts/game.

3. Nilanka, you're assuming every single one of those players play every single game.

4. Calderon has averaged around 8-9 APG over the course of his career...that number will definitely go down if he is demoted to full-time backup PG

5. Marz wrote:
Nilanka, you're assuming every single one of those players play every single game.
Nope. Just adding averages. Individual players' PPG adds up to a team's PPG. That's how the math always works.

6. Pts/game scored by a team and total pts/game by all players aren't equal no?

7. flamingtimbits wrote:
Pts/game scored by a team and total pts/game by all players aren't equal no?
If we're talking averages, they definitely equal.

8. If we have a hypothetical team consisting of just 5 players who all average 20 ppg, their team will average 100 ppg throughout the course of the season.

The same logic applies to the OP, but with 14 players instead of 5.

9. Actually, I think I'm wrong. The numbers would have to be adjusted per 48 minutes, for the individual PPGs and team PPGs to equal (I think)...

I stand corrected.

10. If the team has 5 players and if they play in every game then yes. But this won't be the case. Not everyone will play in every game. Let's say there are 6 players: 5 averaging 20 ppg and 1 averaging 5 ppg. Then if and when 4 players averaging 20 ppg and the one averaging 5 ppg played in a match, wouldn't that account to 85 points only?

11. isaacthompson wrote:
Calderon has averaged around 8-9 APG over the course of his career...that number will definitely go down if he is demoted to full-time backup PG
I meant for his APG to decrease but for some reason I actually thought Caldy was averaging 10+ APG!

12. flamingtimbits wrote:
If the team has 5 players and if they play in every game then yes. But this won't be the case. Not everyone will play in every game. Let's say there are 6 players: 5 averaging 20 ppg and 1 averaging 5 ppg. Then if and when 4 players averaging 20 ppg and the one averaging 5 ppg played in a match, wouldn't that account to 85 points only?
Well, in this case 85 points is just 1 game, not an average for the whole season.

13. Nilanka wrote:
Well, in this case 85 points is just 1 game, not an average for the whole season.
Let's say the hypothetical season only has 3 games. They scored 85 points in the first game. In the next game they score 100 points with those 5 players, then all 6 players play in the final game, which means they score 105 points. That will tally to 290 points scored in the season, and an average of 96.7 ppg scored by the team not 105 ppg

14. Nilanka wrote:
Nope. Just adding averages. Individual players' PPG adds up to a team's PPG. That's how the math always works.
Glad you admitted to being wrong, because math only "always works" that way when you make incorrect assumptions.

Your mistake was in assuming that every player would play every single one of the 82 games. I highly doubt that has ever happened in the history of the NBA.

Just one quick tally of last season's averages would point out your mistake. 90.7 average PPG for the entire team, yet if you add up all the players' PPG, you'd have 141.7 PPG. Even if you take out guys like Anderson, Dentmon, Carter and Butler, it's still way over 90.7. There's no need to create hypos, making it more difficult than it really is, because the answer is right there in front of you guys.

15. flamingtimbits wrote:
I know this might not be our final roster but there is always reason to predict and speculate.
So this is my prediction on stats for the team as it stands:

5's & 4's
Aaron Gray 3.1 PPG 4.8 RPG 0.5 BPG
Amir Johnson 7.5 PPG 6.4 RPG 1.1 BPG
Andrea Bargnani 23.8 PPG 5.8 RPG 0.3 BPG
Ed Davis 5.1 PPG 6.1 RPG 0.8 BPG
Jonas Valanciunas 6.6 PPG 7.2 RPG 1.2 BPG
Quincy Acy 2.4 PPG 4.2 RPG 0.3 BPG

3's & 2's
Alan Anderson 3.2 PPG 1.6 RPG 1.5 APG
Demar Derozan 18.5 PPG 3.3 RPG 2.2 APG
Landry Fields 8.3 PPG 4.9 RPG 1.9 APG
Linas Kleiza 9.1 PPG 3.5 RPG 1.7 APG
Terrence Ross 7.2 PPG 3.0 RPG 2.1 APG

1's
John Lucas III 2.3 PPG 2.8 APG 0.3 SPG
Jose Calderon 7.3 PPG 9.4 APG 0.7 SPG
Kyle Lowry 12.1 PPG 8.1 APG 1.6 SPG

Stats don't tell the whole story. But it's fun speculating (well at least for me it is).
Agree/disagree with my stats? Can't be bothered? Think it's stupid?
Join in, debate and let's predict some stats!
I estimated Andrea to have a rebound or two better, and Kyle Lowry to be a 16 point scorer.

16. the formula is total points scored by any one player divided by the number of games played - that is points per game - it has nothing to do with teams total ppg

17. Jose with 9.4 APG off the bench! That's awesome haha, can't wait!

18. Jose will just feed Val and rack up assists like crazy off the bench

19. flamingtimbits wrote:
So this is my prediction on stats for the team as it stands:
Stats don't tell the whole story. But it's fun speculating (well at least for me it is).
Agree/disagree with my stats? Can't be bothered? Think it's stupid?
Join in, debate and let's predict some stats!
I'd suggest a different format: predict stats PER 48 MINUTES for each player. You can compare to last year's per 48 stats - they should be pretty similar. The predict what percent of the 48 minutes for each position goes to each player (e.g., Lowry gets 67% of the PG minutes; Calderon gets 33% of the PG minutes).

If you do it this way, you're much more likely to be accurate. Per 48 minutes played stats are meaningful. Stats per game are pretty random. Play more minutes (and take more shots) = higher stats even if you're crap.

P.S. To get rid of the shots factor you would need to say what percent of the shots will each player take, multiplied by their shooting percentage. That starts looking a lot like proper stats, then ... clearly no fun.

If Jose gets one assist while on a train travelling to Chicago at 76km/h and Lowry steals twice in the first quarter en route to Dallas at 50km/h, how long will it take for Andrea to get 10 boards?