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Thread: Early look at the ROY chances for the Raptors rookies...

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Default Early look at the ROY chances for the Raptors rookies...

    So now that the Dwight trade has shaken up the league, it looks like the dust has finally settled enough to assume that nothing that happens between now and start of training camp will affect a rookie's role on his team. So sounds like a good time to start considering how the rookies stack up in the race for Rookie of the Year award and where the Raps rooks might fall.

    So here is how I see the crop grouped. (Note: I didn't rank players in the groups)

    The contenders
    Anthony Davis
    Jonas Valanciunas
    Damian Lillard
    Bradley Beal

    These four represent the guys that have both the current skill set and best team situation where they will have the opportunity to put up number. I very much doubt Davis will win it, but as the top pick he certainly will be in the conversation. JV is widely believed to be the guy most teams would have taken 2nd overall in this year's draft. JV will get opportunity with the Raps and will have benefitted from playing in the Olympics this summer. Beal will be lining up next to John Wall and could explode in scoring this year.

    My personal vote at this stage is Damian Lillard (the guy I desperately wanted the Raptors to draft but alas...) He will run the offence in Portland and has a legit low post scorer in Lamarcus Aldridge. He can hit the outside shot and should be a beast at attacking the rim.

    The fringe
    Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
    Harrison Barnes
    Dion Waiters

    I doubt Kidd-Gilchrist will be able to put up enough numbers on Charlotte to impress voters. He will be a good player, but I just dont see the flashy-enough numbers for the average voter. Barnes could put up huge scoring numbers in GS. Waiters will benefit from playing with Kyrie Irving and could score a lot this year.

    The outsiders
    Thomas Robinson
    Terrence Ross
    Austin Rivers
    Maurice Harkless
    Perry Jones 3

    I don't think Robinson will get enough PT or touches playing down low with D-Cousins. Ross would be the under-dog that Raps nation would love to get behind, but I think he has an up-hill battle for this year's crown. Rivers will be a bust in my opinion, but on the Hornets he could score a lot and who knows, maybe I'll be wrong and he'll be an efficient scorer too. Harkless jumps up with the trade to Orlando that desperately needs everything. Harkless could produce. PJ3 would be the ultimate upset. I loved the kid in college and in OKC he will likely never see the light of day, but if he can be dependable and versatile, then he could fill the void behind Durant and even play some small ball PF.

    So my final rankings for ROY voting are:
    Lillard
    JV
    Davis

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    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    I'd love to see a Raptor be considered for ROY.. but the NBA is going to be pumping "the brow" hard core. Davis is going to be their new poster child and as such they will do everything to market the kid and turn him into the next best thing (deservedly or not).

    That marketing power will be hard to over come for any of the other rooks. I think it can be done if Davis ends up being mediocre, but the fact that he was already on the USA squad has already given him a huge head start.

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    Raptors Republic Starter mountio's Avatar
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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    I'd love to see a Raptor be considered for ROY.. but the NBA is going to be pumping "the brow" hard core. Davis is going to be their new poster child and as such they will do everything to market the kid and turn him into the next best thing (deservedly or not).

    That marketing power will be hard to over come for any of the other rooks. I think it can be done if Davis ends up being mediocre, but the fact that he was already on the USA squad has already given him a huge head start.
    This is the key .. he will really have to play bad not to win it. The marketing machine will be all over his intangibles, even if his stats are ok. Plus, he will likely get the most minutes of any rook out there .. so that helps a lot. JV's biggest problem (in general and in getting ROY votes) is that he wont see enough minutes due to foul trouble...

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
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    I'm expecting the rookie ladder to shift every week with so much talent in this years draft.

    My contenders would be

    Anthony Davis - Will start from day one and if he can lead all rookies in rebounds and be a leader in blocked shots he'll have a strong chance at claiming the crown. He's not going to blow anyone away with his scoring, but he'll get his fair share of touches on a team that will rely on him to do a bit of everything. The key will be staying healthy.

    MKG - Already a leader in the Charlotte locker room. Will start and get all the touches he can handle. The ROY award always seems to come down to stats, so this may hurt MKG a bit as he seems to be good across the board, but not great at any one particular stat.

    T. Robinson - Another rookie that will likely be asked to start right away. Of all the rookies he seems to be the guy that has the best opportunity to put up big numbers. Prior to summer league I was thinking he could be the most likely rookie to put up 20 & 10, but he struggled mightily during those games. Playing along side Cousins and Evans may take the pressure off him and allow him to do what he does best which is score and rebound.

    Next Tier

    Beal - He could have a big year scoring the ball, but he'll be deferring to Wall and Nene whom will see the lions share of the touches. He'll still get his as he was able to play along side a ball dominant PG in college.

    Lillard - Lillard might be able a leader among rookies in scoring, but he's playing next to a 20 point scorer in Aldride and Batum is going to be featured prominently in the Blazers line up now that he's landed the big contract. He'll need to surprise people with assist numbers to claim the ROY title.

    Waiters - Will get minutes and touches, but only has the ability to dominate the scoring category. If Clevland has a strong season with Waiters leading the way in scoring he has an outside shot

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    I think Thomas Robinsons game compliments Cousins game and vice versa, I think he will definetly be in the runing for ROY. As for JV there's a lot of question marks: how will his game translate to the NBA? will he have a long learning curve? etc... But I think his game is better suited for the NBA and he could have the samw impact in the centre position like Rubio in the PG position. But right now I agree with you that Lillard is the front runner for ROY, the dude can ball, but again I thought that about Kemba last year, so we'll see how shit pans out...

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Don't worry, Chuck Swirsky will still vote for Bargnani...
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Raptors Republic Starter mountio's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Don't worry, Chuck Swirsky will still vote for Bargnani...
    time to let that go .. especially when AB would have finished 2nd in the voting easily even if Chuck had not voted him in at all ..

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    Raptors Republic Starter omgsomuchpotential's Avatar
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    As much as it pains me to say it, I don't think JV will even be in consideration for ROY (even D-Mo has more chance). It's so much harder for a big man to become ROY, their maturing seems to take much longer.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Ross has a lot more competition for minutes than JV. JV will get his, Ross needs to battle DeRozan, who should be extra motivated to prove something now that Colangelo drafted a player high who most people assume will play DD's position. Then he also has to worry about Fields and Kleiza eating up minutes on the wing. Heck, I could see the Raptors rolling with Lowry and Calderon at times. Kind of like when they used to run it with Ford and Calderon. It's a great way to snap a scoring funk.

    JV has a legit shot at ROY IF he can keep his fouls down. A lot of kids coming from Europe have problems with it because you can get away with a lot more overseas. The other IF will be how the voters value the rookies because JV won't have the nicest fantasy stats out of the group but he could be the best defender out of the gate to go along with solid numbers.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Ross has a lot more competition for minutes than JV. JV will get his, Ross needs to battle DeRozan, who should be extra motivated to prove something now that Colangelo drafted a player high who most people assume will play DD's position. Then he also has to worry about Fields and Kleiza eating up minutes on the wing. Heck, I could see the Raptors rolling with Lowry and Calderon at times. Kind of like when they used to run it with Ford and Calderon. It's a great way to snap a scoring funk.

    JV has a legit shot at ROY IF he can keep his fouls down. A lot of kids coming from Europe have problems with it because you can get away with a lot more overseas. The other IF will be how the voters value the rookies because JV won't have the nicest fantasy stats out of the group but he could be the best defender out of the gate to go along with solid numbers.
    Better defender than Anthony Davis? That's high praise for JV.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    Better defender than Anthony Davis? That's high praise for JV.
    Depends on how much one values the blocked shot
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Depends on how much one values the blocked shot
    I value the ability to block shots highly when you can block them from the bench

    In all seriousness though he does so much more than block shots.

  13. #13
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Quote Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    Better defender than Anthony Davis? That's high praise for JV.
    Not in terms of raw talent but keep in mind JV has been defending grown men while Anthony Davis has been defending kids.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Letter N's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Not in terms of raw talent but keep in mind JV has been defending grown men while Anthony Davis has been defending kids.
    I HATE when people say this, it's never been the case where a rookie from Europe has come in and dominated from day one, no matter how many washed up and non-NBA caliber men they've played against.

    They said the same bullshit "he's played against men" line for Andrea and Darko and Tskikivilli and Lampe and Nowitzki and Yi and everyone else you wanna name who made it and who didn't. They all suck compared to NCAA guys in the first year(s) because it's a big transition and the game isn't the same.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Not in terms of raw talent but keep in mind JV has been defending grown men while Anthony Davis has been defending kids.
    What matters is this: By the end of this season, it will look like Davis has been defending kids all season, while JV will look like he's been defending grown men.

    Davis will be a runaway leader for ROY. JV will not come close. I'm not sure JV will even win ROY for the Raptors.
    your pal,
    ebrian

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Letter N's Avatar
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    Early Vegas Lines

    Anthony Davis (NO) 6/5
    Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (CHA) 7/1
    Bradley Beal (WAS) 19/2
    Harrison Barnes (GSW) 19/2
    Thomas Robinson (SAC) 19/2
    Jonas Valanciunas (TOR) 10/1
    Dion Waiters (CLE) 20/1
    John Henson (MIL) 25/1
    Kendall Marshall (PHO) 25/1
    Marquis Teague (CHI) 25/1
    Royce White (HOU) 25/1
    Andre Drummond (DET) 30/1
    Austin Rivers (NO) 30/1
    Damian Lillard (POR) 30/1
    Jeremy Lamb (HOU) 30/1
    Jared Sullinger (BOS) 30/1
    Maurice Harkless (PHI) 30/1
    Tyler Zeller (CLE) 30/1
    Terrence Ross (TOR) 35/1
    Donatas Motiejunas (HOU) 40/1
    Andrew Nicholson (ORL) 40/1
    John Jenkins (ATL) 40/1
    Meyers Leonard (POR) 40/1


    Lillard would be a good value bet. Beal as well. Long shots that might pay if shit goes crazy would be Motiejunas and Nicholson and Teague, just because of the situation they find themselves in, if they're good they could all play a lot of minutes.

  17. #17
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    JV has very little chance. Other than Mike Miller, I don't recall any ROY in the past 10-15 years averaging less than 15PPG, and JV won't get anywhere near that. The judging is tilted heavily towards scorers. Unfortunately, they don't usually value the type of intangibles that JV brings.

    I'd say it's a 3-way race between Beal, Lillard & Davis.
    Last edited by golden; Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 11:43 AM.

  18. #18
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote golden wrote: View Post
    JV has very little chance. Other than Mike Miller, I don't recall any ROY in the past 10-15 years averaging less than 15PPG, and JV won't get anywhere near that. The judging is tilted heavily towards scorers. Unfortunately, they don't usually value the type of intangibles that JV brings.

    I'd say it's a 3-way race between Beal, Lillard & Davis.
    Agreed with your point on scoring. It's not like voting is done by a panel of experienced, basketball intellectuals. We're talking about dumbass announcers and media members. YAY POINTS!!!
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

  19. #19
    Raptors Republic All-Star wallz's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Agreed with your point on scoring. It's not like voting is done by a panel of experienced, basketball intellectuals. We're talking about dumbass announcers and media members. YAY POINTS!!!
    And flashy plays. They won't exactly drool over Jonas' hard fought offensive rebounds LOL

  20. #20
    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    i don't think either rap rookie is gonna really be in contention for the award
    @jerboat

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