Is Kyle Lowry's impact being under-estimated?

[Matt52]

Before the lockout season started, fans were already talking about Lowry and a possible breakout year (this is taken from a chat forum and I have added age 25 stats for Lowry):

Kyle Lowry (Note: I discarded his rookie year, in which he missed all
but 10 games due to injury)

Age PTS REB AST TOV FG% 3P% FT% PER
21 13.6 4.3 5.1 2.2 .432 .257 .698 14.3
22 12.5 4.1 5.9 2.5 .435 .255 .801 14.4
23 13.5 5.4 6.7 2.5 .397 .272 .827 15.5
24 14.2 4.3 7.0 2.2 .426 .376 .765 16.5
***Addition by Matt52 and only included starting #'s from last year due to return from injury/illness***
25 15.9 5.3 7.2 2.8 .418 .388 .865 18.89*

*PER includes 9 games after comeback where he did not play great back from injury and not starting so PER should be higher.

1. Steve Nash (breakout season in bold)

Age PTS REB AST TOV FG% 3P% FT% PER
22 11.2 3.3 7.3 3.3 .423 .418 .824 10.8
23 14.9 3.5 5.7 2.1 .459 .415 .860 15.6
24 8.9 3.2 6.2 2.4 .363 .374 .826 10.9
25 11.3 2.8 6.4 2.4 .477 .403 .882 13.5
26 16.5 3.4 7.7 3.1 .487 .406 .895 19.6

Where the Comparison Work: Like Lowry, Nash spent the
early part of his career as a backup. When given a starting job in Dallas,
he grabbed the bull by the horns and never looked back, eventually becoming a
superstar.

Where the Comparison Fails: A huge part of what has made
Nash such an effective player is his shooting ability, which he demonstrated
from Day 1. Though I believe Lowry will continue to improve in this
department, I doubt he'll ever reach Nash's level.

2. Gary Payton (breakout season in bold)

Age PTS REB AST TOV FG% 3P% FT% PER
22 9.4 4.3 8.5 2.9 .450 .077 .711 13.2
23 10.8 4.2 7.1 2.5 .451 .130 .669 13.1
24 15.7 4.0 5.6 2.1 .494 .206 .770 17.0
25 16.9 3.4 6.2 2.2 .504 .278 .595 17.8
26 20.2 3.4 7.0 2.4 .509 .302 .716 21.3

Where the Comparison Works: Unlike Nash and Lowry, Payton
was more or less a starter from day one, and a defensive ace from
the start. However, he didn't start posting superstar-level numbers
until his age-26 season. In addition, one similarity is that Payton
game into the league with no 3PT range to speak of, and eventually
became a more than respectable shooter.

Where the Comparison Fails: Payton's assist numbers were
likely stifled in his early years do to the fact that he played alongside
another great distributor in Nate McMillan. He also possessed superior
size and athleticism to Lowry (and everyone else listed here). And
though Lowry's a plus defender, if he was going to become the dominant
defensive force that Payton was, we'd probably know by now.

3. John Stockton (breakout season in bold)

Age PTS REB AST TOV FG% 3P% FT% PER
22 11.1 2.5 10.0 3.6 .471 .182 .736 13.3
23 11.7 3.3 11.3 3.1 .489 .133 .839 17.0
24 12.6 2.9 13.0 3.2 .499 .179 .782 19.0
25 15.3 3.0 14.3 3.3 .574 .358 .840 23.2

Where the Comparison Works: It doesn't, not really. Because
of his inability to effectively shoot the three ball early in his career, the
Jazz made Stockton a backup for the first three seasons of his
career, and his per-36 minute numbers suggest that this was a mistake.
You can only wonder how many assists he would have collected if he
had started from day one. I will say that like Payton, Stockton came into
the league with virtually no 3PT shot to speak of, and became one of
the best shooters ever. So perhaps there's a remote chance that Lowry
could turn into an elite shooter, in which case I do think he'd become a
perennial all-star.

Where the Comparison Fails: See above.

4. Mo Cheeks (breakout season in bold)

Age PTS REB AST TOV FG% 3P% FT% PER
22 10.2 3.8 6.4 2.9 .510 .000 .721 12.6
23 12.3 3.8 7.6 3.0 .540 .444 .779 15.9
24 11.4 3.7 8.3 2.6 .534 .375 .787 16.4
25 12.7 3.6 9.6 2.7 .521 .273 .777 18.3

Where the Comparison Works: I think this may be Lowry's most
reasonable comp. Mo Cheeks was a hard-nosed, scrappy 6'1" PG who
made four All-Star Teams and was four times named to the All-Defense 1st
Team. In his age-25 breakout season he ranked third in the NBA in assists
per game and had a low turnover rate, and the next year he made his first
All-Star team. I could easily see Lowry putting up that kind of campaign
in 2011-12 and having a similar career path.

Where the Comparison Fails: I actually think Lowry's ceiling
is greater than becoming Mo Cheeks 2.0. Though he likely won't be the
defender Mo was, he can certainly hold his own in that department,
and seems to have greater potential as a scorer if his jumper continues
to improve. If Kyle can become the distributor that Cheeks was, I think
he'll eventually surpass him. It should be noted that Mo was generally
the third or fourth best player on some stacked Sixers teams in the '80s.
While I don't think Kyle can be a number one option on a championship
level squad, if he continues to improve I could certainly see him as
the second best player on a very good team.

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=212619

Fantasy basketball nerds were planning, plotting, and speculating:

* Kyle Lowry’s stock is soaring. It flew under the radar a bit, but over the last 18 games Lowry played during the 2010-2011 regular season, he averaged 18.4 points, 7.8 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 2.7 three-pointers, 1.2 steals, and shot over 87% from the FT line. Read that again, that is not a misprint. During that 45-day stretch, Lowry was the 5th ranked player in all of fantasy – the top 4 were (in order): Kevin Durant, LeBron James, D Wade, Chris Paul, and… Kyle Lowry. Lowry is soaring up draft boards this month, for good reason. You might have to use a 3rd or 4th round pick to secure his services.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/fantasy-nb...1-2012-season/

Talk early in the season backed up the praise:

The Houston Rockets took it on the chin Tuesday evening, losing to the Los Angeles Lakers 108-99, but they had one bright spot in the form of Kyle Lowry, who nearly posted a triple-double. Lowry finished the game with 22 points, 9 assists, 10 rebounds, 2 steals and 4 3-pointers. This comes on the heels of an 18-assist New Year's Eve performance against the Atlanta Hawks.

So how high can Lowry go this season? Well, he had a semi-breakout campaign last season, averaging 13.5 points, 6.7 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.4 steals and a 3-pointer per game. In 14 March games, he averaged 19.8 points, 8.1 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 2.3 3-pointers per game. That combination of assists, steals and 3s is extremely enticing, and judging by his early play this season, we might be seeing the beginning of a full-blown breakout campaign from Lowry.

The only concerns about him at this point are a sometimes shaky field goal percentage (42.7 field goal percentage last season, 41.1 percent this season, 0-for-6 from the field on New Year's Eve), too many turnovers (3.2 per game early on, including six on New Year's Eve) and consistency. The last part could be the biggest issue. The Rockets are thin on talent this season, and although that offers Lowry plenty of opportunities, it also means he won't have as much help succeeding as he would on another team. But right now, it appears he's confident and good enough to succeed all on his own.

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/blog/_/na...reakout-season

The end of a difficult and frustrating, but promising, year:

A season that began with guard Kyle Lowry playing at an All-Star level will end with him getting ready for off-season surgery.

Lowry said Sunday he would not be able to play in the Rockets final regular-season games because of a sports hernia and the groin injury that sent him to the hospital when a bacterial infection was discovered March 8.

He missed a month with the infection, spending the first week in the hospital. He has struggled since.

“I’m shutting it down,” Lowry said. “With the injuries, I won’t be playing again this year. With the groin and the sports hernia, it’s a lot to deal with. I made a decision to shut it down.”

Lowry played just seven first-half minutes on Saturday before Rockets coach Kevin McHale stuck with Goran Dragic for the entire second half. He had Earl Boykins in position to check in but called him back to the bench.

“It’s been a long process,” Lowry said. “I haven’t been healthy since I came back. I was trying to help my team. I’ll probably need surgery after the season. I’ve had (the sports hernia) since last July. Now, I think it’s gotten worse. I played with it all year, but it got to the point it got too bad.

“If anybody has seen me play lately, it’s not who I am. It’s one of those tough processes, I tried to play with it and do what I can and not complain about it. It’s a situation I have to get it fixed and taken care of.”

http://blog.chron.com/ultimaterocket...ainful-season/

Assuming Lowry returns to his late 2010-11 and first 38 games of 2011-12 form..... well, I don't even want to say for fear of being branded "O-P-T-I-M-I-S-T-I-C"

[ReubenJRD]

I feel Kyle Lowry is being underrated right now. The guy can put up great numbers, but that's not my concern. He is a guy who is very capable of putting up a triple-double. Good rebounder for a guard, scoring first mind-set, finds open teammates and gets others involved, and a very good man/team defender.

It's whether he can stay healthy, and if he can improve from most part of last season. I think Kyle Lowry easily makes this team much, much better. A team with the prototypical score first and athletic point guard, is hard to keep up from the point of attack, and the top of the defense. Jose is great at getting other's involved, but a team without superstars makes it better if everyone, on every single position can score the basketball and keep the defenders honest.

[Puffer]

...Assuming Lowry returns to his late 2010-11 and first 38 games of 2011-12 form..... well, I don't even want to say for fear of being branded "O-P-T-I-M-I-S-T-I-C"

Great stuff Matt. Did you major in archaeology at university, by any chance? You always dig up the nuggets. Maybe geology?

[Craiger]

Great stuff Matt. Did you major in archaeology at university, by any chance? You always dig up the nuggets. Maybe geology?

I can't possibly imagine Lowry is being underestimated.

If so how are people getting so excited about this season? I don't think we can expect 2 rookies or Fields to be game changers.

Maybe I'm way off base here but I assumed Lowry was the main reason for peoples enthusiasm and optimism this offseason.

[Miekenstien]

I can't possibly imagine Lowry is being underestimated.

If so how are people getting so excited about this season? I don't think we can expect 2 rookies or Fields to be game changers.

Maybe I'm way off base here but I assumed Lowry was the main reason for peoples enthusiasm and optimism this offseason.

agree with lowry not being underestimated but i am also excited for jv getting to town. i think that we are hoping against hope that lowry is the shit. we know how good jose is and bc brought lowry in because he is better. so right now i think we still need to temper ourselves before we overestimate lowry and then hate on him for our desperation.

[planetmars]

I think in order for a PG to really breakout they need the right head coach to work with. Nash would not have been Nash without Pringles, in my opinion.

I have a feeling Casey will get the most out of Lowry since Lowry loves defense. I'm looking forward to his game the most out of all the Raps this season. Sure will be exciting to watch.

[Mediumcore]

I think Lowry will have a greater impact on the team that what a lot of people outside of Toronto think, but I expect his points to regress a bit while becoming more efficient. Cutting back on turn overs and improving his shot selection. Though he and Casey have a good relationship I thik Casey will look to reign in Lowry a bit because he is used to having pass first PG's on his roster like Kidd in Dallas and Jose last season. I can live with fewer point if he is more efficient getting them and cutting down on turn overs.

[Axel]

Great post.

Like others on here, I'm not sure if Lowry is under-rated by Raps fans since he is a large part of the excitement for this season. I do think Lowry is under-rated league wide though. While some media guys have caught on to him, many still seem ignorant of his production on an average (at best) team.

Lowry will make the Raptors better next season, whether he makes the step into stardom or not.

[ceez]

I dunno if his stats are under estimated, it seems a few here might be overstating them, but i think the big thing is his D. At the point of attack PG is a critical position of the defense. Love Jose but it's going to be nice watching our point guard not get abused by other fast guards over and over.

[Usagi_yo_Jimbo]

Great post.

I for one am excited about this years team. I've been watching the raps since they started in '95, and i havent been this excited since the team where vc won the ROY. That being said, i dont expect them to go far in the playoffs but i do expect them to make a run for 7th or 8th place.

[BadDinosaur]

Kyle will be huge help for Valanciunas on D. What was so painful for Val in the Olympics is that the lithuanian guards got abused on penetration and Val had to close out in the paint too often, too quickly... which got him in foul trouble quickly. Lowry won't be able to keep the guards penetrating all the time, but he for sure will be able to slow them down and direct them to certain spots, which will allow for Val to make a decision in time if he needs to help or guard his man underneath.

So less fouls for Val are guaranteed! And this is huge! And of course on O, Val and Lowry will be able to pick n roll teams to death

This is what makes me most excited; that combination of Lowry and Val could become very, very special!

[ReubenJRD]

Kyle will be huge help for Valanciunas on D. What was so painful for Val in the Olympics is that the lithuanian guards got abused on penetration and Val had to close out in the paint too often, too quickly... which got him in foul trouble quickly. Lowry won't be able to keep the guards penetrating all the time, but he for sure will be able to slow them down and direct them to certain spots, which will allow for Val to make a decision in time if he needs to help or guard his man underneath.

So less fouls for Val are guaranteed! And this is huge! And of course on O, Val and Lowry will be able to pick n roll teams to death

This is what makes me most excited; that combination of Lowry and Val could become very, very special!

+1

[heinz57]

I dunno if his stats are under estimated, it seems a few here might be overstating them, but i think the big thing is his D. At the point of attack PG is a critical position of the defense. Love Jose but it's going to be nice watching our point guard not get abused by other fast guards over and over.

This, +1.

When was the last time we had a good defensive guard?

It'll be nice to know that PGs around the league won't be able to come to Toronto and blow by our PG at half speed anymore

i love Jose... but seriously, you need some 1st team all defensive bigs to cover the guards casually strolling past him every play

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Kyle will be huge help for Valanciunas on D. What was so painful for Val in the Olympics is that the lithuanian guards got abused on penetration and Val had to close out in the paint too often, too quickly... which got him in foul trouble quickly. Lowry won't be able to keep the guards penetrating all the time, but he for sure will be able to slow them down and direct them to certain spots, which will allow for Val to make a decision in time if he needs to help or guard his man underneath.

So less fouls for Val are guaranteed! And this is huge! And of course on O, Val and Lowry will be able to pick n roll teams to death

This is what makes me most excited; that combination of Lowry and Val could become very, very special!

I would add that this same fact - significantly improved point-of-attack/perimeter defenence - will also help hide/minimize Bargnani's weak help-defense... though I fear derailing the thread! lol

All joking aside, the addition of Lowry & Fields (perimeter defense) and Valanciunas (defensive anchor) really will change the entire team's dynamic and effectiveness on defense, especially while trying to close-out tight games.

[Craiger]

This, +1.

When was the last time we had a good defensive guard?

It'll be nice to know that PGs around the league won't be able to come to Toronto and blow by our PG at half speed anymore

i love Jose... but seriously, you need some 1st team all defensive bigs to cover the guards casually strolling past him every play

Didn't we hear the exact same thing about both Jack and Bayless though? And I'd point out that the teams defense still improved significantly with Jose running the point for most of the year.

Not saying Lowry won't be an improvement or be a help but I think way too much emphasis is placed on Jose defense as the center of this teams historic defensive problems. The reality of the NBA is PGs have alot of difficulty defending other PGs.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Didn't we hear the exact same thing about both Jack and Bayless though? And I'd point out that the teams defense still improved significantly with Jose running the point for most of the year.

Not saying Lowry won't be an improvement or be a help but I think way too much emphasis is placed on Jose defense as the center of this teams historic defensive problems. The reality of the NBA is PGs have alot of difficulty defending other PGs.

The biggest problem last year is that all our point-of-attack / perimeter defense stunk last year, whether the opposition was penetrating through Calderon, DeRozan or whoever was starting at SF. From the initial dribble-drive, our defense was in a constant state of rotate/recover mode. The face that DC was able to improve the team's overall defense, in spite of horrendous point-of-attack man-defense, speaks volumes about him being able to implement an effective team system and get his players to put for maximum effort. With the significant individual defensive upgrades that Lowry and Fields represent, I think this team will take an even bigger step forward defensively next season, since it all starts with guarding the man with the ball.

[ReubenJRD]

The biggest problem last year is that all our point-of-attack / perimeter defense stunk last year, whether the opposition was penetrating through Calderon, DeRozan or whoever was starting at SF. From the initial dribble-drive, our defense was in a constant state of rotate/recover mode. The face that DC was able to improve the team's overall defense, in spite of horrendous point-of-attack man-defense, speaks volumes about him being able to implement an effective team system and get his players to put for maximum effort. With the significant individual defensive upgrades that Lowry and Fields represent, I think this team will take an even bigger step forward defensively next season, since it all starts with guarding the man with the ball.

+1 Jose and Demar can't guard their own man consistently, especially Jose. James Johnson is nothing but a stat defender. Hits the passing lanes and blocks shots, not saying it's a bad thing, but doesn't tell the entire story. Jack was barely a better defender than Jose, and Bayless couldn't defend without keeping his hands out of the opposition's pockets.

Fields is not a defensive stopper, but nonetheless a very good on-ball defender, and is a very smart player. Kyle Lowry is in the same mold, not necessarily going to stop his man, but it will be hard to get by.

[WJF]

I have stayed out of this thread because I am not sure what I think of Lowry. While I admit he is a good player and brings something to this team we have been lacking, I just don't know what I think about his fit within the flow of the game.

His assist number have never been great and he turned the ball over quite a bit last year. While he shot the 3 at a good clip the last two seasons, his overall field goal percentage has not been great. Are we getting a point guard that is any better than a Jameer Nelson or Ty Lawson, can those guys get you to the next level?

I am not disappointed with this pick-up, I am just not sure if he is the PG of the future we are all looking for, rather a very good stop-gap till we truly fill that spot.

[Matt52]

I have stayed out of this thread because I am not sure what I think of Lowry. While I admit he is a good player and brings something to this team we have been lacking, I just don't know what I think about his fit within the flow of the game.

His assist number have never been great and he turned the ball over quite a bit last year. While he shot the 3 at a good clip the last two seasons, his overall field goal percentage has not been great. Are we getting a point guard that is any better than a Jameer Nelson or Ty Lawson, can those guys get you to the next level?

I am not disappointed with this pick-up, I am just not sure if he is the PG of the future we are all looking for, rather a very good stop-gap till we truly fill that spot.

Good god I hope not. I thought Jose was the stop gap! lol

I'm hoping for similar numbers to what he put up (better fg% though) and solid D. The other consideration is the lack of options he had in Houston in his big men especially in the pick and roll. Scola is a great offensive player but pick and roll is not his strength in my limited opinion and Dalembert is useless.

[WJF]

Good god I hope not. I thought Jose was the stop gap! lol

I'm hoping for similar numbers to what he put up (better fg% though) and solid D. The other consideration is the lack of options he had in Houston in his big men especially in the pick and roll. Scola is a great offensive player but pick and roll is not his strength in my limited opinion and Dalembert is useless.

He is only signed for this year and next, so there is no guarantee he is here after the 2013/14 season. What happens after that is anyone's guess. To me his style and body does not lend itself to longevity, so at 28 when it is time to re-sign, what type of deal do you give a guy like that, has he been able to evolve his game so that he can be effective into his 30's?

I really hope he comes in and helps the team generate some excitement and win some ball games. I by no means am hoping for him not to work out, I want him to get rid of my doubts.

On a future PG that I would like to see in the organization....Aaron Craft, he just seems like that grimy player that makes your team better, maybe he is not a starter, but he could be a great bench guard for 10-12 years in the NBA.