How does the Raptors bench compare to the Eastern Conference?

[Matt52]

Hmm.. I don't agree with that. Your measurement of mpg is misleading because you're missing when they're playing those minutes. Based on average minutes you'll see that Mike Miller was a 9th man, but if you look closely at his games played, he lined up as either the 1st or 2nd guy off the bench when healthy. Here's a log of his top 10 most minute games:

Bulls, April 12, 28:33, 6th in mins played
Houston, April 22, 27:12, 5th in mins played
Cleveland, Feb 17, 26:10, 6th in mins played
Detroit, Jan 25, 25:54, 6th in mins played
Washington, Apr 21, 25:37, 5th in mins played
New Jersey, Apr 16, 25:30, 4th in mins played
Detroit, Apr 8, 24:21, 6th in mins played
Cleveland, Feb 7, 23:55, 6th in mins played
Portland, Mar 1, 23:37, 7th in mins played
Boston, Apr 24, 23:34, 6th in mins played

Since he only appeared in 39 games last year, already you see that 25% of his 2011-2012 season he was Miami's 6th.

I'm not going to list out all the games of the remaining players but here are the results:

Bonner's top 10 games, averaged 4th most minutes.
Gibson's top 10 games, averaged 3rd most minutes. Definitely not a 9th man.
Wilcox's top 10 games, averaged 5th most minutes.
Cook's top 10 games, averaged 4th most minutes.
Murphy's top 10 games, averaged 5th most minutes.

So what you're looking at is even though over the season they had the 9th or 10th most minutes, they were called upon to be their teams' 6th man (or 3rd or 4th in some cases). This means that these good teams are still using a rotation of 6 or 7 guys in the regular season just like playoffs, the difference is that they have a stable of studs from which to choose from.

I didn't pick 9th or 10th most minutes. I said 9th or 10th most minutes played per game. I also looked at the total numbers of games played. With Miami for example, I didn't use Turiaf as an example because (going from memory) I think he only played around 15 games.

Many of those reserves were/are decent players. You are going with top 10 games most games played. Isn't it likely:

1) an injury/foul trouble/ejection could have led to increased minutes in a number of games?

2) those players were "on" or "hot" for a number of games leading the coaches to make decisions to increase their play?

3) there was a situational match up?

4) many of the games were in garbage time of the year with starters sat? Looking at a lot of the dates for Miller, 6 were in April last season.

5) that those teams - especially because they were all division winners - were involved in numerous blowouts one way (losing) or more likely the other (winning)?

I'm sure we could both make pretty solid arguments on the playing time of the 9th or 10th. However, I am going to have to disagree with your regular season conclusion - much like you are going to disagree with my concusions... agree to disagree it is - lol.

Your point to when the minutes played is a good one but they still played the minutes. 82 games is a long grind for just 7 bodies. Again, I can't emphasis enough things definitely change come playoffs and my argument in regular season definitely doesn't apply to playoffs.

The majority of teams - including divisional winners - are 9-10 deep in the regular season, in my opinion. Factors leading to this in the regular season include match ups (Aaron Gray on a big body), injuries (please god nothing long term), foul trouble (Bargnani picked up his 3rd at the start of the 2nd quarter) or nights when a reserve is on (Amir going for 15/11). I think this bodes well for the Raptors this year.

[Puffer]

I'm not entirely sure what your proposed plan would be, in place of the one that BC is currently following. ...It seems to me like BC is doing everything possible to build a solid, much improved team. I'm not sure how that can't be perceived as anything but a step forward.

I agree with this. What would the alternate plan be? Draft better? Make better trades? Force free agents to pick Toronto? Not sure how any of that could be accomplished.

Two years after the fact it is usually possible to see draft picks that would have turned out better, but also you can usually see draft picks that turned out worse for teams drafting ahead of the Raps and immediately behind. The draft is an art, not a science.

Make better trades? I don't know why people think BC isn't trying to make the best trades he can. It takes two to do that dance. We have seen what happens when the Raps chase free agents. If somebody knows better free agents that are willing to come to TO, then let me know and I will give Bryan a call.

So what's the alternate plan?

[Raptor_11]

I agree with this. What would the alternate plan be? Draft better? Make better trades? Force free agents to pick Toronto? Not sure how any of that could be accomplished.

Two years after the fact it is usually possible to see draft picks that would have turned out better, but also you can usually see draft picks that turned out worse for teams drafting ahead of the Raps and immediately behind. The draft is an art, not a science.

Make better trades? I don't know why people think BC isn't trying to make the best trades he can. It takes two to do that dance. We have seen what happens when the Raps chase free agents. If somebody knows better free agents that are willing to come to TO, then let me know and I will give Bryan a call.

So what's the alternate plan?

Reflects my thoughts exactly.
On a lighter note, heres a sweet vid.. didn't know where else to put it

[Craiger]

I'm not entirely sure what your proposed plan would be, in place of the one that BC is currently following. Drafting Durant can't really be called a strategy, so much as dumb luck. The Raps can keep tanking, but at some point they need to attempt to improve and actually start winning (I was on the pro-tank side this past season, in the hopes of getting somebody better than Ross, but I am definitely on the pro-winning side going into this season).

The Raptors have gone away from the stop-gap free agent signings that plagued the Bosh-era Raptors, have shed all their bad contracts (ie: Turkoglu) and have made lottery picks for 4 straight years that were widely regarded as BPA type picks (DeRozan, Davis, Valanciunas and Ross). It seems to me like BC is doing everything possible to build a solid, much improved team. I'm not sure how that can't be perceived as anything but a step forward.

First off let me state that OKC was only an example to make a comparison. And I'll add what Presti did in OKC is immensely more complex and long term than "drafting Durant". That he got his Durant (ie. his first stud) made it work to near perfection - but lets not try to simplify 4 or 5 years of rebuilding into one action.

Anyways to the point, while you may be on the 'pro-winning' side, I'm on the 'pro-having long term success' side or the 'pro-not recycling the same process every 5 years' side. Whether that means winning or losing now or in the near future I don't really care.

But looking at this team it looks to me more like the 'cross my fingers and hope my plan works' team. Bargnani and Demar have shown no consistency. Val and Ross haven't played a minute in the NBA yet. Thats 4 of the 5 most significant long term peices on this team. The Raptors record or position in the standings won't necessarily mean much if its not built on actual on the court talent.

The 2006/07 Raptors won 47 games, were ranked 3rd in the east, and took that so called 'step forward' - the following year 41 games, the years after out of the playoffs. Why? The ceiling was low and their success was built on the weakness of the east not the strength of their team. As the east got better, and the 'potential' of their players started leveling out, they were exposed.

I see the Raptors finishing somewhere between 7th and 11th. But honestly I'm more concerned with how they get there than where they are. So just using those two end points - if they are 7th and we are still questioning Bargnani and Demar while needing to make excuses for Ross and Val I don't see that as a step forward. If they are 11th and one or more have stood out I'll see that as progress.

[Puffer]

"So what's the alternate plan?"