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Thread: what is DeMar worth?

  1. #1
    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
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    Default what is DeMar worth?

    since his contract is coming due and there is some discussion about keeping him.

    What are players similar to him getting?

    Do we overpay in the hopes of him reaching his potential?

    Do we do something short term?

    Do we test his RFA status?

    My personal opinion is he is worth Wilson Chandler/Amir Johnson money 6 - 8 million a year based on current performance.

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    Unless he takes a huge step forward this season, we need to let him go. He's a low efficiency1 volume shooter2 with no 3 point range3 who never passes4, plays mediocre to bad defense5, and is a stunningly awful rebounder6 for his size and athleticism. But because his scoring totals look good and he throws down the occasional eye-popping dunk, his market value is probably significantly higher than his actual value. We can't afford to hamstring the organization with a bad-value contract over a misguided hope that he'll improve.

    Footnotes:

    1. His TS% of 50.3% was 54th out of the 83 shooting guards who played at least 6 minutes per game last season.
    2. His usage rate of 22.5% was 10th out of that same group.
    3. He's a career 20.6% 3PT shooter, with his best season being last year's 26.1%
    4. 71st out of 83 shooting guards in assist rate.
    5. Career defensive rating of 112 (meaning a team full of defenders of his quality would allow 112 points per 100 possessions; the worst team in the league last year allowed 107.)
    6. 51st out of the 83 SGs who played at least 6 minutes per game last season in rebound rate.
    Last edited by tkfu; Wed Oct 3rd, 2012 at 09:39 AM.

  3. #3
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Colangelo seems intent on taking the "wait and see" approach. Sounds like DeRozan will use this season to determine his worth.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Quote thead wrote: View Post
    since his contract is coming due and there is some discussion about keeping him.

    What are players similar to him getting?

    Do we overpay in the hopes of him reaching his potential?

    Do we do something short term?

    Do we test his RFA status?

    My personal opinion is he is worth Wilson Chandler/Amir Johnson money 6 - 8 million a year based on current performance.
    Well logically, he shouldnt get anything below 6 mil.

    Hopefully, he realizes he hasnt lived up to his potential, gives the Raps a discount and he gets signed for cheap. Then he comes out firing and plays well above his pay grade.

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    Just to put even more into perspective how bad he is:

    For every 100 of your team's possessions he's on the court, he'll end 21.8 of them. 2.1 of those possession-enders will be turnovers; the other 19.7 will be shots. On those 19.7 shots (this includes free throws), he'll score 19.8 points.

    Now, last year, the median NBA offense scored 102.4 points per 100 possessions. That's Milwaukee Bucks territory; not bad, but certainly nothing to brag about.

    If you want to have a middle-of-the-pack offense like that and you've got DeMar on the court doing his thing, the other 4 players are going to have score 82.6 points in the 78.2 possessions that are left over. That's an offensive efficiency of 105.6. That would have been the 4th best offense in the league last year, just better than the Chris Paul-Blake Griffin Clippers.

    High usage, low efficiency players are absolute death for an NBA offense. DeMar's gotta show massive improvement this year or he's gotta go.

    Now, to be fair, he was asked to shoulder a higher usage rate last season with Bargs injured, so maybe this season his usage goes down and his efficiency goes up. If that happens, those numbers I've been citing change, and maybe he becomes worth keeping. It's just that right now it's looking pretty grim.

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    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
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    @tkfu sounds like you are in the wait and see camp.

    My worry is a strategic one. If we extend him now for slightly more than he is worth then he has the potential to over achieve the contract. If he takes a huge step up we will have lost an opportunity to get him for less. If we go the RFA route we are likely to overpay significantly because an other team will test us

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    Even if he repeats numbers similar to last year, I'm in favour of re-signing him. Except for his stinking 3 point shooting, he is a good starting guard. By not means is he a star but definitely an above average player. About 7-7.5 mil. a season sounds fair.
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    If Fields shows a return to form and Ross appears to be the real deal, I think DeRozan becomes trade bait, as part of a package to target an established star SF at the deadline. That would be my preference too, as I don't think he's worth the money he'll likely be making next season. Fields and Ross will make him expendable.

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    The SpinDoctor said

    "I have spoken to his [DeMar] agent multiple times over the last several weeks to start to establish a dialogue, a concrete dialogue and a meaningful dialogue with respect to whether or not its going to work out from a timing perspective for both sides.

    Weve also agreed that should we not come to a conclusion with respect to an extension at this time, clearly its not the end of the world. We may have to grow together more before that deal is imminent.

    http://thestar.blogs.com/raptors/201...practices.html

    Doug Smith opined its time for prudence and see where DeMar goes this season before you think about locking him up for any length of time.

    I agree with his opinion as I am not yet convinced DeMarr DeRozan will amount to anything more than a fringe starter or scorer off the bench.

    I would definitely not offer him a $6-8M a year contract based on his past performance.

    In my opinion, DeMar made good strides as a cutter last year.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    I was really disappointed in Derozan last season. Early on, I defended him based on small sample sizes and his track record of taking a big leap in the second half of seasons (going back to college) but the lack of improvement in key areas over 3 years is disconcerting at best. I'm quite happy Colangelo is taking a wait and see approach with an extension. I can't imagine there's going to be huge demand for Derozan at the end of the year.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie The Fox's Avatar
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    Quote tkfu wrote: View Post
    Unless he takes a huge step forward this season, we need to let him go. He's a low efficiency1 volume shooter2 with no 3 point range3 who never passes4, plays mediocre to bad defense5, and is a stunningly awful rebounder6 for his size and athleticism. But because his scoring totals look good and he throws down the occasional eye-popping dunk, his market value is probably significantly higher than his actual value. We can't afford to hamstring the organization with a bad-value contract over a misguided hope that he'll improve.

    Footnotes:

    1. His TS% of 50.3% was 54th out of the 83 shooting guards who played at least 6 minutes per game last season.
    2. His usage rate of 22.5% was 10th out of that same group.
    3. He's a career 20.6% 3PT shooter, with his best season being last year's 26.1%
    4. 71st out of 83 shooting guards in assist rate.
    5. Career defensive rating of 112 (meaning a team full of defenders of his quality would allow 112 points per 100 possessions; the worst team in the league last year allowed 107.)
    6. 51st out of the 83 SGs who played at least 6 minutes per game last season in rebound rate.
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    Quote Eric Akshinthala wrote: View Post
    ...By not means is he a star but definitely an above average player. About 7-7.5 mil. a season sounds fair.
    Maybe go back and read post number two, Demar. No way you are getting extended without showing improvement. And to think you can get a contract worth $7M a year is hallucinatory.....I assume this is Demar posting under a pseudonym.

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    Quote thead wrote: View Post
    Do we overpay in the hopes of him reaching his potential?
    The whole point of signing a player after the third year is to pay them less than if you wait until after the fourth year. Look at the those idiots in Memphis with Rudy Gay.

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    Based on his shooting last season, he's below average. That said, I think is shooting was flukily bad, and hurt by the lack of training camp

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    He was shooting great to start the season, even looked like he had developed 3pt range. Can't blame it on a lack of training camp.

    (Cue blaming it on fatigue as the season wore on in 3...2...1...)

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    Quote malefax wrote: View Post
    Based on his shooting last season, he's below average. That said, I think is shooting was flukily bad, and hurt by the lack of training camp
    Thing is that his shooting numbers in terms of eFG% and TS% have fallen each year and there was little to no improvement (or even regression) in all other categories. When young players don't improve it's cause for concern that goes beyond potentially abberant FG% numbers. I don't know how much longer this team can afford to wait on the guy...

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    Dr does not play or feel like a starting guard in NBA. He succumbed early in the career to the raps collective infectious disease - aversion to taking the ball to the basket. Ball is cheap, shoot as often as you please, and expect others to rebound. Further, he defers and respects too much, in particular the star opposing players. Suggestion - keep him for the bench, absolutely do not overpay, and look to trade for an upgrade on that position.

  18. #18
    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    The market should determine DeMar's worth. However I would suspect it would be similar to what Wesley Matthew's got a couple of years ago which was $34M for 5 years.

  19. #19
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    I don't think DeMar is worth more than MLE/$5M at this point - MAX - and more likely closer to $4M. Maybe this season proves different.

    My main measuring stick is the 3 year, $10M contract Alonzo Gee signed with Cleveland.

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    Quote tkfu wrote: View Post
    He was shooting great to start the season, even looked like he had developed 3pt range. Can't blame it on a lack of training camp.

    (Cue blaming it on fatigue as the season wore on in 3...2...1...)
    No, but his usage did increase, as you pointed out.

    I don't have clips to support this, but I suspect that at the start of the season, other teams were still working from last year's scouting reports and didn't think they had to respect his 3-point shot, so they sagged off him and he made those open looks. When they started paying defensive attention to his shot, it stopped falling.

    If that's accurate, it certainly isn't a good sign, but I do expect his shooting percentage to increase this season due to a combination of his usage dropping and being more open when he shoots.

    That said, I'm not sold on him long-term. Like you, I'd prefer to divest the franchise of inefficient players. I like what their analytics guys are saying publically, so I have to think that they're more capable of evaluating efficiency than we are -- meaning they know as well as we do that DeRozan is an inefficient player and are expecting substantial improvement from him this season. Insurance against that not happening may have been part of the motive behind drafting Ross.

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