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Thread: ESPN Hollinger's Prediction

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    Raptors Republic Superstar isaacthompson's Avatar
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    Quote ebrian wrote: View Post
    33 wins is exactly what I predicted back in August.
    You're gonna be bang on with this.

    Well done.
    Twitter - @thekid_it

  2. #42
    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    I picked the four questions I found most interesting. The link is worth the click.

    I remember thinking 38 or 39 wins.... booooo. The Bargnani bit nails it. Everything for me was on Bargnani not being the previous 6 season version. Very much wrong. And it is from that point forward where I want sweeping changes. Good bye BC - 7 years of failure with a doomed to fail Bargnani. Good bye DC - you were brought in to teach defense (fail) and get the most out of Dirk-Lite (minus 17 games, FAIL). Good bye AB - it is time for everyone to part ways.

    There is a thread out there with the actual poll but for the life of me, I can't find it.
    Good for her for running something like this.

    It still baffles me how many people (knowledgeable people, too) were fooled with the Bargnani stuff. The fact that so many people clung to that 13-game stretch after 6 years, particularly when he'd had stretches like that before and never sustained them.

    I really hope people have learned their lesson on this stuff. We'll see with Derozan. 4 years in, still the same player. Will Raps fans keep believing he's just waiting to bust out? Or have we learned that players are what they are?

  3. #43
    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    I'm going with 36W-46L, we got better as a team but I'm not sure enough teams got worse for it to matter dramatically. Lowry will have to be in heavy all-star consideration for the raps to get a 7th seed or higher, I think we'll be in the 11-8 range, a lot of that depending on Magic and Bulls.
    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    Just read the slam article and found a couple of things interesting...

    1) If the guy who wrote the article was the GM of either the Bulls or Hornet's he'd be trying to get his hands on Calderon.

    2) He thinks that New Orleans is going to have a +500 record. That seems like a stretch to me, I guess he's expecting Davis to have a huge impact, but doing a roster comparison I think that our team is definitely stronger, both in starting 5 and in players coming off the bench. That being said, I've never watched Davis play (am overseas so only read about this year's march madness).
    It's definitely worth going back through that old thread to see what you, and others predicted.

    The article that spawned it, on top of saying that NO would be a .500 team, (currently 27-51) also said that Sactown (currently 27-50) would improve by 17 wins... the bluff was called by more than just me. Just goes to show that writer's write for clicks, and that we've got enough varying opinions on this site that no matter what the topic is, somebody here got it right. If only we didn't have just as many or (or more) who got it wrong.

    Although the raps won't get to 36 wins I feel pretty good about my prediction. I probably over valued JV contribution, I figured he'd be playing the way he is now, by December.

    Also, I was off in thinking the bulls would drop to the bottom of the playoffs or possibly out altogether. Based on Boston's play minus Rondo and the spurs play minus their random revolving door of injuries, it seems like teams can sustain a high level of play without their best player for a significant stretch.

    Anyway, i do think it's important to keep tabs on people's prediction, and pat them on the back or rub it in their faces when they are right or wrong, as it increases accountability.

    For those who actually gave a prediction (so they should still be esteemed more than the gutless wonders who didn't make a prediction), there were two that tied for having a prediction that was least mirrored by the shared reality we witnessed (which isn't to say their aren't other universes where they made the most accurate predictions).

    Quote mcsemcp73 wrote: View Post
    Raptors will go 44-38

    Atlanta (rebuilding), Orlando( rebuilding with or without D, Boston ( to old even with Rondo), New York (Melo) and
    Chicago (without DR need a bench)

    1)Miami
    2)New Jersey
    3)Indiana
    4)Philadelphia
    5)Milwaukee
    6)Toronto
    7) Washington
    8) Chicago (maybe)
    FTR this guys posted as a "guest" (I didn't know that was possible...)

    Quote Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    I'm optimistic about our chances this season (as I am at the start of every season). I think two things the Raptors have going for them are a deep bench with Calderon leading the way, and just as important D. Casey's consistent approach to playing defensive basketball. I really think when you can hang your hat on defense you'll always have a shot at winning games. Plus with really good rebounders at the PG and SF positions in Lowry and Fields the Raptors should be a pretty good rebounding team this year.

    My prediction is between 44 to 48 wins this season.
    It seems like Mediumcore's biggest mistake was probably the assumption that our defense would be even better than last year, instead of getting worse.


    I also think it's worthwhile putting ebrian's full post up:

    Quote ebrian wrote: View Post
    I say 33 wins, and that is about as happy-go-lucky-optimistic as I can possibly get.

    That's the upper limit to what I could possibly predict here: a 40% win percentage with 2 new players in the starting lineup that are marginally better than their predecessors (until proven otherwise) and 2 rookies that will play significant minutes and undoubtedly hit rookie walls.
    The scary thing is that he's the only guy who predicted 33 wins or less, I think LBF would have predicted about the same or lower, based on the tone of his responses, but failed to actually given a number. Everyone else, including me predicted the raps would get more wins than they actually did, which is pretty scary, since I (and most other's here) like to believe we are capable of objective analysis.

    Anyway, with only four games remaining, all against playoff bound teams, 33 wins really does seem like the ceiling for this season, although, 30-32 wins seems more likely.

    Pretty soon, we'll have to start a new prediction thread for next season. It'll be interesting to see if ebrian can duplicate his accuracy. If he does, I will be awarding the honorary nickname of ebrain!
    Last edited by ezz_bee; Wed Apr 10th, 2013 at 08:24 AM.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

  4. #44
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
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    Talk about being overly optimistic. Leaves me scratching my head as to how it all went wrong?

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Soft Euro's Avatar
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    There was also a thread with a poll for predictions (I was too optimistic...); I looked for it last week, but I can't find it. Anyone know where that thread is?

  6. #46
    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
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    3 things:

    1. Please do not call me ebrain. I hate that so much. I get so many emails addressed to me at work that start with "Hi Brain,"... it drive me nuts. Honestly there are just times I won't respond. If you can't take the time to type out my name properly, why should I take the time to read your email? I will probably get fired for this some day.

    2. For what it's worth after the terrible start I thought we'd be lucky to win more games than we did last year in the shortened season. The Rudy Gay trade "turned it around" for us.

    3. Not to brag, but I've pretty much nailed it for two straight seasons now. Hurray for being pessimistic!
    your pal,
    ebrian

  7. #47
    Raptors Republic All-Star Soft Euro's Avatar
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    Quote ebrian wrote: View Post
    3. Not to brag, but I've pretty much nailed it for two straight seasons now. Hurray for being pessimistic!
    Last year you predicted 15-18 in the poll...

  8. #48
    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
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    Quote Soft Euro wrote: View Post
    Last year you predicted 15-18 in the poll...
    Hahah.. can't say I'm surprised. I guess it depended on my mood at the time -- when was that poll taken?

    I found the old SLAM online thread where some people posted their predictions.. here's a quick summary:

    Risk Mgmt: 40-44 wins
    flamingtimbits: 42 wins
    KaioKev: 39 wins
    Garbo: 42 wins
    Matt52: 38 wins
    RaptorReuben: 8th seed, .500+
    SuperRaptor: "Raptors Are Stacked"
    ezz_bee: 36 wins
    Mediumcore: 44-48 wins
    planetmars: 39 wins
    ebrian: 33 wins
    Quirk: 40 wins, top 5 defensive team
    mcsemcp73: 44 wins (also picked Washington to come in 7th place)
    pillowmint: 36 wins
    charlz: 35-44 wins
    JackfromNZ: playoffs
    knowledgep: 39 wins
    Apollo: good chance of 8th seed
    LBF: not making playoffs
    NoPropsneeded: playoffs!!!!
    Miekenstien: playoffs

    your pal,
    ebrian

  9. #49
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Anyway, i do think it's important to keep tabs on people's prediction, and pat them on the back or rub it in their faces when they are right or wrong, as it increases accountability
    I agree with this, but I think it should be much more focused on mainstream media than random fans individual predictions. These are people who are supposed to have much more access and, in theory anyways, supposed to have more knowledge than the average fan. Now rarely do they make very specific prediction (probably for this very reason) but you can definetely get a good feel for what they think from reading.

    Guys like D. Smith and Brotherson, in my eyes, got molested by this season. Worse, most of the Raptors TV and Radio crew should be embarrassed with the way they propped up this team and then gave excuses for them for months on end.

    The reason is rather simple. What myself, or Matt52, or Nilanka or Ebrain... errr ebrian.... thinks will more than likely go through one ear and out the other for most. Tidbits of factual information will likely influence (for example Matt52's salary cap coverage has likely helped alot of people understand the salary cap and its effects), but I don't think too many read my posts that say "Bargnani sucks" and then started to think... well Bargnani sucks cause Craiger said it.

    The difference with the Raptors media is its a constant steady flow of what should be 'credible' information . If you tell the same story often enough, it tends to become become the truth, especially if it comes from someone in the know. This is what we saw with most media sources from the start of last season until mid way (or later) of this season.

    - this team had improved alot of areas
    - the team 'culture' had changed
    - the young guys were NBA ready/potential stars
    - Lowry was an allstar
    - 13 game Bargnani was the new norm
    - Derozan is/was improving

    Personally this has been my biggest peeve. What seems like a complete lack of either knowledge or uninfluenced knowledge (or both), or even just a devils advocate, by those whose job it is to cover this team and spread the knowledge to the fanbase. This may sound a bit tin foil hatish, but I would not be suprised if this organization influences the mainstream coverage in some fashion. Either by disassociating themselves from those who aren't 'friendly' enough (I think it was over at RaptorsHQ I read a peice where the writer claimed he lost his media access after asking Triano some difficult question about Bargnani), or give additional access to those who are 'friendly' (Doug Smith may be the biggest Colangelo parrot there is, coincidentally he also has the best and generally most accurate ideas on what the Raps will do with their players). About the only writer who was constantly neagtive on this team direction and Colangelo's moves was Feshuk, who disapearred from any Raptors coverage.

    Now thats speculation on my part, and I don't want to indicate that MLSE or Colangelo is controlling the flow of information. But rather they've built a media culture where 'optimism' towards the team garners reward.

    In the end we saw an offseason where fans overpredicted nearly across the board - optimists and pessimists alike (except ebrain... err ebrian... ofcourse). I didn't predict wins as I recall (although predicted the team to finish between 7-10 in the east. Had I predicted wins it would have been in the 38 range, which was clearly off). I'd be willing to bet alot of the results of these predictions stem directly from the non-stop assault of optimistic information that spewed from all angles of the media with little to no resistence from any opposing force.

    ok turnign the media rant off.... for now....

  10. #50
    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    Personally this has been my biggest peeve. What seems like a complete lack of either knowledge or uninfluenced knowledge (or both), or even just a devils advocate, by those whose job it is to cover this team and spread the knowledge to the fanbase. This may sound a bit tin foil hatish, but I would not be suprised if this organization influences the mainstream coverage in some fashion. Either by disassociating themselves from those who aren't 'friendly' enough (I think it was over at RaptorsHQ I read a peice where the writer claimed he lost his media access after asking Triano some difficult question about Bargnani), or give additional access to those who are 'friendly' (Doug Smith may be the biggest Colangelo parrot there is, coincidentally he also has the best and generally most accurate ideas on what the Raps will do with their players). About the only writer who was constantly neagtive on this team direction and Colangelo's moves was Feshuk, who disapearred from any Raptors coverage.

    Now thats speculation on my part, and I don't want to indicate that MLSE or Colangelo is controlling the flow of information. But rather they've built a media culture where 'optimism' towards the team garners reward.
    Craiger, I can tell you a little bit about the Raptors, Colangelo and the media. Most of this comes from a colleague of mine who knows and works with several of the people at Teachers (the old owners) who were involved in the basketball side of things, so it is second hand.

    What I have been told is that image is extremely important to BC. His own image and the image of the team. He is fiercely protective of that image and what he wants it to be. The Raptors have people who are constantly reviewing the media, blogs, etc. to know what people are saying about them. People in MLSE had never seen anything quite like it and the media guys know that if they are too negative they, and their organizations, will be given less access. In other words, you get Feschuked.

    Now take that for what it's worth coming from an anonymous poster but if you look at how the Toronto sports papers, networks, radio cover the Leafs and Jays, as opposed to the Raps, you see a clear difference. I have also seen other posters on other boards who have media access make similar statements. It might just be a meme but I don't think so. If you go look at how negative the coverage was during the end of the Grunwald era and the Babcock disaster, I think you get a clear indication that things changed when BC was hired.

  11. #51
    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
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    Craiger, I agree with everything you wrote except that ebrain stuff (damn you!!).

    It's the same reason I don't trust anyone who keeps telling me the Blue Jays are the real deal this year. The unfortunate part for me about the Jays is that I haven't followed baseball in about 20 years, so I kind of have to believe what they're saying.

    But generally, I have a difficult time believing what anyone writes anymore. Journalists get paid, but like you said, who is paying them and for what reason are they paid to write what they write as opposed to bloggers who do it for fun? What's the motivation behind their profession -- pure interest or are there things we don't know about?
    your pal,
    ebrian

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    Raptors Republic Veteran NoPropsneeded's Avatar
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    Quote ebrian wrote: View Post
    Hahah.. can't say I'm surprised. I guess it depended on my mood at the time -- when was that poll taken?

    I found the old SLAM online thread where some people posted their predictions.. here's a quick summary:

    Risk Mgmt: 40-44 wins
    flamingtimbits: 42 wins
    KaioKev: 39 wins
    Garbo: 42 wins
    Matt52: 38 wins
    RaptorReuben: 8th seed, .500+
    SuperRaptor: "Raptors Are Stacked"
    ezz_bee: 36 wins
    Mediumcore: 44-48 wins
    planetmars: 39 wins
    ebrian: 33 wins
    Quirk: 40 wins, top 5 defensive team
    mcsemcp73: 44 wins (also picked Washington to come in 7th place)
    pillowmint: 36 wins
    charlz: 35-44 wins
    JackfromNZ: playoffs
    knowledgep: 39 wins
    Apollo: good chance of 8th seed
    LBF: not making playoffs
    NoPropsneeded: playoffs!!!!
    Miekenstien: playoffs

    Hahahaha

  13. #53
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    Craiger, I can tell you a little bit about the Raptors, Colangelo and the media. Most of this comes from a colleague of mine who knows and works with several of the people at Teachers (the old owners) who were involved in the basketball side of things, so it is second hand.

    What I have been told is that image is extremely important to BC. His own image and the image of the team. He is fiercely protective of that image and what he wants it to be. The Raptors have people who are constantly reviewing the media, blogs, etc. to know what people are saying about them. People in MLSE had never seen anything quite like it and the media guys know that if they are too negative they, and their organizations, will be given less access. In other words, you get Feschuked.

    Now take that for what it's worth coming from an anonymous poster but if you look at how the Toronto sports papers, networks, radio cover the Leafs and Jays, as opposed to the Raps, you see a clear difference. I have also seen other posters on other boards who have media access make similar statements. It might just be a meme but I don't think so. If you go look at how negative the coverage was during the end of the Grunwald era and the Babcock disaster, I think you get a clear indication that things changed when BC was hired.
    None of this comes as a suprise to me.

    But its nice to get some backing (even if it is word of mouth) to something you've noticed.

    The unfortunate part is it seems to really work, which I think can be seen, atleast locally, with the amount of misplaced optimism there was by fans coming into this season.

    I agree with everything you wrote except that ebrain stuff (damn you!!).
    the temptation was just too great.

  14. #54
    Raptors Republic All-Star Soft Euro's Avatar
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    Quote ebrian wrote: View Post
    Hahah.. can't say I'm surprised. I guess it depended on my mood at the time -- when was that poll taken?
    http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...oronto-Raptors

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    Quote ebrian wrote: View Post
    Hahah.. can't say I'm surprised. I guess it depended on my mood at the time -- when was that poll taken?

    I found the old SLAM online thread where some people posted their predictions.. here's a quick summary:

    Risk Mgmt: 40-44 wins
    flamingtimbits: 42 wins
    KaioKev: 39 wins
    Garbo: 42 wins
    Matt52: 38 wins
    RaptorReuben: 8th seed, .500+
    SuperRaptor: "Raptors Are Stacked"
    ezz_bee: 36 wins
    Mediumcore: 44-48 wins
    planetmars: 39 wins
    ebrian: 33 wins
    Quirk: 40 wins, top 5 defensive team
    mcsemcp73: 44 wins (also picked Washington to come in 7th place)
    pillowmint: 36 wins
    charlz: 35-44 wins
    JackfromNZ: playoffs
    knowledgep: 39 wins
    Apollo: good chance of 8th seed
    LBF: not making playoffs
    NoPropsneeded: playoffs!!!!
    Miekenstien: playoffs

    I get branded a homer but I was 3rd lowest of 21 people above... 4th if you include 35-44 wins a prediction.

    Now I was still off by a lot but I just found that amusing.

  16. #56
    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
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    Nice! It looks like you nailed it on that poll. I guess I was wrong last year.
    your pal,
    ebrian

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    Quote ebrian wrote: View Post
    Nice! It looks like you nailed it on that poll. I guess I was wrong last year.
    But if we can find this year's poll, it'll show that I was dead wrong ...

    And btw: I called my prediction for 2011-2012 pessimistic as it wouldn't give us a high draft pick...

  18. #58
    Raptors Republic All-Star JawsGT's Avatar
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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    Craiger, I can tell you a little bit about the Raptors, Colangelo and the media. Most of this comes from a colleague of mine who knows and works with several of the people at Teachers (the old owners) who were involved in the basketball side of things, so it is second hand.

    What I have been told is that image is extremely important to BC. His own image and the image of the team. He is fiercely protective of that image and what he wants it to be. The Raptors have people who are constantly reviewing the media, blogs, etc. to know what people are saying about them. People in MLSE had never seen anything quite like it and the media guys know that if they are too negative they, and their organizations, will be given less access. In other words, you get Feschuked.

    Now take that for what it's worth coming from an anonymous poster but if you look at how the Toronto sports papers, networks, radio cover the Leafs and Jays, as opposed to the Raps, you see a clear difference. I have also seen other posters on other boards who have media access make similar statements. It might just be a meme but I don't think so. If you go look at how negative the coverage was during the end of the Grunwald era and the Babcock disaster, I think you get a clear indication that things changed when BC was hired.
    Seems very logical to me. I wonder if BC would want the media to hype up the Raps, at least to a certain extent, in order to capture the imaginations of the more casual fans, so the organization can make a little money off them. I would think that both the Leafs and Jays have a larger and more committed fan base than the Raps. The Raps have not been a very successful organization, and although they have certainly increased their fan base over the years there is much room to grow. Negative media coverage prior to a season will not get fans excited, and certainly not draw in the more casual fans. So I don't doubt at all that BC attempts to control how the media is portraying the team. Although this interpretation comes with a certain amount of risk when the team fails to live up to expectation. Colangelo gets one more season, at the most, to prove that this team is a capable competitor.

  19. #59
    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    Anyway, i do think it's important to keep tabs on people's prediction, and pat them on the back or rub it in their faces when they are right or wrong, as it increases accountability.
    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    I agree with this, but I think it should be much more focused on mainstream media than random fans individual predictions. These are people who are supposed to have much more access and, in theory anyways, supposed to have more knowledge than the average fan. Now rarely do they make very specific prediction (probably for this very reason) but you can definetely get a good feel for what they think from reading.

    We are in agreement, that the media SHOULD be held to more account when it comes to what they say. However, I focused on us posters, because a forum is a dialogue, as opposed to a one way conversation. Sure we could all write to a reporter and point out where there prediction was off based; however, that email/text/smail mail can just be disregarding and therefore there is no public acknowledgement.

    However, on a forum I can quote your post (and you can quote mine! or I could quote my quote in your quote, like i did for this post) and even if you ignore my post or your quote it's still out there for the rest of the forum to read and analyze.

    I've actually been thinking about this a lot, and I'd love to see a dedicated "Predictions" sticky thread, where anyone can post their predictions, or if someone makes a prediction in another thread anyone can link it in to the sticky thread. That would make it easier to keep ourselves accountable.

    I also think it could work for with the media as whole, anytime one of us reads an article where the author makes a prediction (especially if it seems overly positive or negative) just link the article and quote the section where the prediction is made. Sure the author is unlikely to ever know that his or her prediction was tracked, but who knows...

    Anyway, if such a thread was made I'd be sure to post all my predictions their (as well as in the applicable thread) so that I could see whether I'm as smart as I think I am.

    As far as raps media goes, I do think that they operate in a culture that has been co-opted, which is why I'm so grateful that the republic exists.

    So thanks all mods and writers, past/present/future
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

  20. #60
    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    Good for her for running something like this.

    It still baffles me how many people (knowledgeable people, too) were fooled with the Bargnani stuff. The fact that so many people clung to that 13-game stretch after 6 years, particularly when he'd had stretches like that before and never sustained them.

    I really hope people have learned their lesson on this stuff. We'll see with Derozan. 4 years in, still the same player. Will Raps fans keep believing he's just waiting to bust out? Or have we learned that players are what they are?
    if 'players are what they are' then we would have gotten rid of amir johnson ages ago.

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