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Thread: Raps Players Ranked by WP48

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  1. #1
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    Default Raps Players Ranked by WP48

    Code:
                      Games     Minutes WP48    Wins Produced Simple Projection
    
    Chris Bosh           41     1,446   0.264   8.0           15.9
    Jose Calderon        29     861     0.149   2.7           5.3
    Hedo Turkoglu        39     1,299   0.093   2.5           5.0
    Jarrett Jack         41     1,158   0.093   2.2           4.5
    Amir Johnson         41     694     0.135   2.0           3.9
    Andrea Bargnani      40     1,372   0.037   1.0           2.1
    DeMar DeRozan        41     844     0.027   0.5           1.0
    Marco Belinelli      38     726     0.031   0.5           0.9
    Rasho Nesterovic     21     194     0.085   0.3           0.7
    Sonny Weems          30     454     0.026   0.2           0.5
    Marcus Banks         15     186     0.039   0.2           0.3
    Patrick O'Bryant     5      22      0.020   0.0           0.0
    Pops Mensah-Bonsu    16     107    -0.081  -0.2          -0.4
    Antoine Wright       31     502    -0.101  -1.1          -2.1
    
                                Summation      18.8          37.7
                                Actual         21            42
    This is for the first half of the season.

    I set the WP48 column in bold as the formatting didn't work out as well as I'd hoped. The metric is calibrated so that 0.100 is considered average. To put things in perspective, the top 3 players in the league so far according to this metric are 1. Marcus Camby, 2. Kevin Love, 3. LBJ.

    The metric says Bosh is by far the best player on the team and they'd be literally nowhere without him. WP48 is weighted very heavily towards players who: grab lots of boards, score lots of points, create lots of turnovers, take lots of foul shots. That's why Bargs doesn't do well on this metric or PER.

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    Last edited by Brandon; Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 12:57 PM. Reason: Cleared up formatting issues.

  2. #2
    Raptors Republic Rookie webcrawler89's Avatar
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    yeah...you might want to space that out a bit....no offence but, its really hard to stay focused and read it like that

  3. #3
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    As far as I am concerned, WP is basically useless because of how it values rebounds. I'm a big fan of advanced stats in general, but this particular one is garbage, IMHO. Marcus Camby as the best player in the league illustrates the problem.

    The problem is that the metric is based off of what correlates with wins. Rebounds correlate very highly with wins, but that's only partly because rebounds win games. The other part is that rebounds correlate with missed shots by the other team, which also wins games. WP gives all the credit for that to the rebounder, when the actual credit should probably be a third as much -- certainly not more than half.
    Last edited by malefax; Sun Jan 31st, 2010 at 11:30 PM.

  4. #4
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    wtvr way you look at it, the Raps are doing well simply because Bosh is going nuts this year. He is the team, pure and simple. He finally has a quality supporting cast, with some good pieces, but how Bosh goes, the team goes.

  5. #5
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    I'm known to be critical of Bargs. But rebounds aren't fake...they really positively impact the game. If your teammates KNOW the rebound will be secured, they can take off. I just wish he realized rebounding is as important as scoring :/

    If Bosh becomes a 4 assist/game type of guy, that would be fairly awesome.

  6. #6
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    I was able to clear up the formatting issues by adding code tags. Should be easy to read now.

    I think Bargs has had a gunslinger mentality, ie. if we get into trouble, I can shoot us out of it. With his injuries and so forth this year, he's had to re-evaluate that idea.

  7. #7
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    I was able to clear up the formatting issues by adding code tags. Should be easy to read now.

    I think Bargs has had a gunslinger mentality, ie. if we get into trouble, I can shoot us out of it. With his injuries and so forth this year, he's had to re-evaluate that idea.

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