If certainty > uncertainity, I'm not sure how the certainity of the deal is justified by the uncertainty of other deals that could come from it. None the less, I'll point out the certainity of retaining draft picks (due to the CBA) vs the uncertainty of Lowry's future (due to UFA) should also be heavily considered then as it is the most certain of anything in the deal. But yes, if Lowry is somehow parlayed into an even better player or a higher pick than Toronto would have had, its a great deal. But I'm not sure there is much to indicate, given Colangelo's intentions with this team, there is any chance of even being considered anyways.Back to the earlier comment of trading for a certainty versus an uncertainty.
Lowry, right now, is an asset that will improve the team for the next two years. An improved win/loss record may make it easier to attract free agents for less than atrocious money.
Additionally, Lowry could be packaged with someone else in the trade deal to acquire a better player than packaging a pick in the 6-10 range and anyone on the roster the Raps would choose to trade (the likelihood of the Raps playing badly enough to acquire a pick in the 3-5 range is slight). I still don't see the attraction of an unknown pick (in the 6-10 or lower range) and their lower salary and their likely lower ability that might be available at some unknown time in the future. But I suppose it is a philosophical difference.
As I mentioned above to Matt52, the opportunity cost of the deal is more than just Lowry for a pick. Its Lowry guaranteed for 2 years vs a guaranteed lottery pick and the option of trading a pick until the deal is complete.
There is perhaps some philosophical difference. As I don't think Toronto will ever have an easy time signing FAs without overpaying, and even then it likely won't be the calibre that we may need (eg. Jack, Fields, Kapono, Hedo etc), with the exception of the team perhaps being able to sign vets who want to win now when/if Toronto is a contender. And as such, in order to get to that point, Toronto will likely need to make full use of the draft and trades to have the necessary players. Two things that the Lowry deal limits.
Again this isn't a matter of it being bad. Its just that due to the opportunity cost of the deal, I don't think the deal was the steal alot want to make it out to be. It was add wins now vs add wins later.
It could be a great deal if:
1) Lowry resigns at a fair price
2) there is no one as good as Lowry available at the time of the pick.
3) It has some sort of short term impact on the team (ie. able to sign a FA as you mentioned or turned into a greater trade)
But it could be a bust of a deal if
1) Lowry doesn't resign
2) the Raps miss out on a player as good or better than Lowry
3) the Raps miss out on an even greater deal because they can't include the necessary assets (ie. a pick)
I was hoping BC wasn't going to offer a massive contract to DD and go after JJ Redick and Wright in free agency -- two very attainable FAs (obviously was hoping for JSmith but that's a pipedream)
BC has connections around the league can make trades happen and drafts well but with the contracts he's handed Calderon, Ford, Kapono, Turkgelo, Diaw, LK and now Demar it's obvious he shouldn't be doing the negotiations
It's painful to think DD will be making the same as Kirilenko, Gerald Wallace, Varejao, Marion, Gallinari, SCurry, Holliday, DeAndre Jordan, Nash, Rondo, Batum, Tim Duncan. A combination of past and present allstars or much more talented players
I like DD and his attitude but I think we will looks back at this signing like a Richard Jefferson or Maggette contract -- sure they can score but what else