Reasons for Optimism

[enlightenment]

winning percentage is a bad way to judge a developing team!

[Matt52]

winning percentage is a bad way to judge a developing team!

It is the best way to judge results though.

[enlightenment]

We don't need results now.
We need a good team and a strong foundation. The results will shortly follow!

[Matt52]

We don't need results now.
We need a good team and a strong foundation. The results will shortly follow!

We need a good team but the Raptors are not a good team. WE need a strong foundation but there is not a strong foundation.

There were results last year in an incredible turnaround on defense. This year the results all point to regression.

I disagree results are not needed now. A lack of results now is proof the direction of the franchise is flawed.

[enlightenment]

We need a good team but the Raptors are not a good team. WE need a strong foundation but there is not a strong foundation.

There were results last year in an incredible turnaround on defense. This year the results all point to regression.

I disagree results are not needed now. A lack of results now is proof the direction of the franchise is flawed.

How is that proof of a flawed franchise? OKC was the worst in the league record wise, even with KD and russell westbrook! You mean to expect that 2 new rookies, 1 new star (3 new starters), and a completely different direction to do what exactly? Gel perfectly? Impact immediately? If those are you expectations, then surely you will be disappointed.

For the reasons listed in the OP, I believe that our team has more talent on it now, then ever before.
Granted I do agree that our defense has regressed from last year, I reconcile that by admitting to a rookie center and new teammates who need to all be on the same page for team defense to work.

Im excited for when our team will mesh better, and show more chemistry in their defensive execution. But it only happens by playing games and learning from mistakes.

[Jclaw]

I know.
Expectations were high in the offseason, and now we are hurting.
We have gone back and forth, attempting to pinpoint the issue holding us back from our promised playoff run. Is it Bargnani? Coach Casey? Landry Fields? Dominique McGuire? Bryan Colangelo? Referees? Matt Devlin?

Who knows, but it seems after every game we have a new name on our list.

I think we need to get a few facts straightened out, and I believe that when people take a step back from the emotions of the recent HEART wrenching losses, they will be able to recognize the reasons for optimism on this team.

Lets begin by listing our close games:

Indiana 90 vs Toronto 88

Dallas 109 vs Toronto 104

Utah 140 vs Toronto 133 (3OT)

Philadelphia 106 vs Toronto 98 [tied with less than 2 minutes to go]

Charlotte 98 vs Toronto 97 [NBA retracts no-call, by all practical purposes, this was a win]

Detroit 91 vs Toronto 90

All together,
3 games decided by 2 points or less (one shot/one call)
1 Triple Overtime, meaning it was tied by the games end (one shot/one call)
1 tied game with 2 minutes to go
and
1 5 point game (3 shots)

What needs to be gathered is that our 3-10 record is deceiving.
Charlotte I am going to chalk up as a win, because even the NBA agrees, it was. 4-9

Now besides Charlotte, I am not claiming that any of these games are wins, or should be considered potential wins. My point is that each one of these games couldve gone either way, and if one shot went in, the perception of the entire game all of a sudden becomes positive, where as if that shot does not go in, the perception of the entire game turns to complete crap and frustration.

I do not consider this performance by the raptors to be below expectations whatsoever. Very easily we could be at 6-7 (3 games decided by 1 shot/call), and if we were and all the performances were the same, the perception would be that the raptors are right on track to their development as a team, and frustration levels would be much lower.

Lets look at other factors that justify our crappy record:
-Rookie Starting Center
-Starting PG and arguably best player, hurt for multiple games
-Landry Fields nerve has missed enough shots to rightfully be accountable to some of those losses
-2 stretches of 4 games in 5 days
-5 back-backs (out of 13 total games)

Now that we have soften those losses, lets talk about positives, and why this team is exciting:

-JV is the real deal. Rookie mistakes and lack of experience still a factor, and will be for a while, but he has met my hype in the off-season and is right on track!
-Lowry came in with MVP numbers to start the season, before the injury. Before the game where he got hurt, he was tied with Harden at the top of the league in Eff. (Yet only Harden got any media attention for that stretch)
-Derozan has shown massive strides towards becoming a more complete player. He is right on track to developing into the player we all are hoping he can be!
-Calderon was the 2nd best PG in the LEAGUE during kyle lowrys injuries, including 1 triple double, an 18ast night, and 5 consecutive 10+ ast games. His numbers as a starter are incredible.
-Ed is showing an awareness and activity on the court Ive never seen before. Despite his minutes being shot in the arm, when he is on the floor, I feel it (whereas before, he did his work quietly) I love his development, and wish for him to get more minutes!
-Ross has the tools. A silky jumper + great defensive ability on the perimeter. From what I have seen, I consider him the best close-out defender + shot contester on this team. Wait for his nerves to cool, and for the game to slow down for him. He fits a much needed role and will succeed at it, but is currently failing to produce as a rookie.

Overall, not only do I see a stronger core than ever in a raptors uniform (JV - Derozan - Lowry), but I see the potential for others on the roster to join (Ross). Calderon, if he gets traded, will bring back sweeter fruits, and if he stays all the better!

Ages of our players going forward:
Lowry - 26/27
Derozan - 23
JV - 20
Ross - 21
Ed - 23
Amir - 25
Fields - 24

Seeing as how 3/5 of our starters are 24 and under, and our 'vets' are 27, I LOVE the room for improvement in this current squad.

I would love to hear of other reasons to maintain optimism that Ive missed. I hope it does not just sound like excuse making, I am not trying to excuse anyone! I am merely pointing out that our team is young, raw, and above-all, competitive (which is new). What's worse? A blow-out or a close loss? For a fans perspective, a close loss is MUCH more frustrating. From a practical perspective, close losses are the development we need. Im not sure if anyone remembers the days, of 40 point-losses (with bosh), or streaks of blow out losses, but I do.
Close losses are more frustrating and take their toll on fans
But let me just say this:
Growing is a frustrating process, but you cannot give up on it.

Amen! Lowry looks like the pg of the now and future. DD is beginning to look like a legitimate 2. Warts and all, AB can be a solid 4 on most teams. JV is the 5 of the future and the future is coming soon. All we need is a legitimate SF and some time and we will make some noise. Optimism.

[planetmars]

O'Neal brought Marion.

Marion brought Hedo.

Hedo brought Barbosa.

Barbosa brought Acy and cap space that brought Fields and helped get Lowry.

Barbosa brought Zubcic... Acy was our own pick. Zubcic was the Pacer's pick we got from Barbosa

[Matt52]

Barbosa brought Zubcic... Acy was our own pick. Zubcic was the Pacer's pick we got from Barbosa

riiiiight. my bad.

[theycallmeZZ]

Kyle: We're good. I think we're fine. Guys, we're all on board. It's still early. There's 69 games left. It's not a sprint it's a marathon.

— Holly MacKenzie (@stackmack) November 24, 2012

[KeonClark]

People keep finding all these excuses. Landry Fields was hurting us when playing, and now people go "oh bad luck we have Landry Fields hurt!" If you haven't noticed, Dallas is above .500 with a rag tag group of cast offs and old people and NO Dirk Nowitzki.

Our record is what it is. We are not a good team, we are much closer to the worst team in the league then we are to a playoff team. Lowry can keep it as positive as he wants but I see a team that's been playing for a month and are only better than the 0-10 Washington Wizards.

Oh, and I'm sorry to burst anyones bubble, but this percieved "core" of DeRozan, Lowry and Valanciunas in his prime is like a 7th seed at best, despite improvements, DeRozan will never be a top 3 option on a good-great team, he's a 6th man or "Landry Fields" starter at best.

[enlightenment]

I like Kyles attitude. Not so much Keons.

One wins games, the other is self defeatist

[ebrian]

I'm used to being the most pessimistic guy around. Seeing this thread is just depressing for me. I really didn't think we were as bad (or worse) than Detroit.

[Miekenstien]

i am also with kyle. not worried at all. how much you want to bet in practice they are going over plays to run with no timeouts and 10 seconds left on the clock.

same fans that are screaming bloody murder were the same fans that were screaming bloody praise before the season started. our own expectations of what the team can do have been let down but only with how everything that can go wrong will go wrong. 7 close games 7 times the breaks have gone the other way. i'd think the laws of averages should say at least 2 of those should have gone our way but so far we are at 100% losses against god. he is just bouncing the ball the other way right now.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHA/2012.html
worst team' ever stats
losing by 13 points a game

i don't think we are this bad

[Jclaw]

Is "it could be worse" the same as optimism? Cleveland just lost to Miami on a ray allen three when they had been up 2 with 16 seconds left. Kind of puts the Charlotte and Detroit losses in perspective on the soul crushing scale.

[enlightenment]

Al Jefferson hit a three to send it to overtime... Hows that for soul crushing? AL JEFFERSON. It was his second 3pt FG made.. ever.

[enlightenment]

At least thats Ray allens job.

[NoPropsneeded]

If you look at this team. We are better on paper than the bucks, bobcats, and sixers(without bynum). The reason we aren't winning games has to do with either our coaching, defense, or just poor execution all together. I really have no idea whats going on, i just wish this nightmare would end and we could string together some damn wins. I don't even remember what a win feels like anymore. I remember watching at the beginning of the season all hyped jumping off my bed after every bucket and now, after all these losses, i just feel numb.

[Nilanka]

This team is garbage until proven otherwise.

"Optimism" is just the trendy word for "praying".

[Matt52]

i am also with kyle. not worried at all. how much you want to bet in practice they are going over plays to run with no timeouts and 10 seconds left on the clock.

same fans that are screaming bloody murder were the same fans that were screaming bloody praise before the season started. our own expectations of what the team can do have been let down but only with how everything that can go wrong will go wrong. 7 close games 7 times the breaks have gone the other way. i'd think the laws of averages should say at least 2 of those should have gone our way but so far we are at 100% losses against god. he is just bouncing the ball the other way right now.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHA/2012.html
worst team' ever stats
losing by 13 points a game

i don't think we are this bad

What has happened since the season has started?

1) All financial flexibility (barring a trade before the deadline) is lost with DeRozan contract. Forget whether it is a good contract or not, it is about the leverage the Raptors had to match any offer while also creating an advantage on the trade front once the season ended until the moment DeRozan signs an offer sheet or a contract from Toronto.

2) Bargnani is no longer running on potential. He is who he is. He is reliably unreliable.

3) The team has regressed defensively.

4) The culture change was a crock of shit. Raptors are back to being the rudy-poo, candy-asses the majority of the league already took them for. Grind it out, protect the paint, rebound the shit out of the ball is so 2011-12.

5) The realization the team is not only failing at accelerating the rebuild but the team is also losing pace with other bottom dwellers in making progress.


The only positive I see so far this season is JV is farther along and not the 'project' many thought.

[ebrian]

JV's still going to take time. Remember, he's nothing more than a distraction right now. When Bargs is gone he'll be *THE* big man that opponents study and plan for.