Raptor Media: Finally a bold statement from......

[sleepz]

whether anyone wants to admit it or not, there is a degree of luck involved in any sporting event...and DD's point, as rooted in excuse-making as it is, is simply a reflection that the teams feels that they've been unlucky to some degree. he's wildly exagerating the # of L's that would have been W's if not for bad luck - i'd put the number in the 4-5 range, optimistically.

basically, win probability (the % likelihood that a team will win at any given point in a game) fluctuates during a game depending on how that game is going; a team up 20 with 2 minutes left has a very high win probability. but a close game that goes down to the wire is essentially a 50-50 proposition to very end, and often is decided by 1 or 2 plays. good/great teams simply turn those plays to their favour in close games more often than not. the difference between what separates a 'horrible' team from an average one (and an average one from an elite one) are often much smaller than we generally assume.

i know we like to whip hollinger something fierce around here, but his rankings are more objective in nature than most (being stat-based), and he slots the raps in with other teams with much better records...which in & of itself doesn't say a whole lot, other than the stats bear out the notion that the team is playing better (and is playing their opponents tighter/tougher) than their record would indicate.

so yes, at the end of the day, their record is what it is...but i feel better about this team when i factor everything in (new players, injuries, bargs shitting the bed on a continual basis, luck/karma/pissing off the basketball gods by continuing to play bargnani signficant minutes when he's a lazy motherchucker, etc) than i probably should. yes, the losses are dispiriting, but i'd rather they struggle now, fight through the rough patches, learn how to play together, incorporate JV into the gameplan, #freeED, etc) and realize they need to move on from certain players (and start freeing the reigns on other players th fool themselves into thinking they're better than they are by eking out wins & having a record that artificially inflates how 'good' they really are.

Those are all fair points and they might indeed be "better" than their record indicates.

For some reason i just don't get that feeling though. Last year I looked at the roster and I coudln't believe how they were competing and winning games here and there. I never thought they were one of the worst teams last year, even though at the start of that season I thought they were top 3 lottery for sure. They ended up battling on the defensive end and won some games they probably shouldn't have.

This year however, they are losing to Pistons, Bobcats, etc who are teams I had already assumed they had passed in this stage of the game in team development. One game is one game so I shouldn't overanalyze it but it feels like these other teams wised up and started to defend and Raps have taken a step back with new emphasis on offence and fading in 4th quarters.

I will be patient and observe until the end of the year but I am not pleased with what I'm seeing on the court. It seems more like a mess, than a work in progress.

[Matt52]

Making the playoffs is not 'success'.

If that is your ceiling, no.

If it is a step in the process of going from bottom dweller to contender, then I think it is considered a success.

[ibzilla]

I remember writing a post a couple of years ago about how the Raptors don't stand a chance for the next half decade with BC, it's nice to see Raptors fans finally realize it now, albeit 2 years too late.

To me, I realized something was off about the guy when he traded for Jermaine O'neal with the plan of running an up-tempo offense. No plan, no vision, just trying to recreate what he did in Phoenix despite not having the type of talent to run such an offense.

It's too bad he salted the earth with his bad contracts and passing on a "project" in Andre Drummond for an "NBA ready" player in Terrence Ross. Meanwhile, Drummond looks like a more athletic version of Bynum and Ross looks like a project role player.

Time to clear house and start from scratch (keep JV).

[Hugmenot]

Andy Phillips is just venting except he has a much wider audience than we do.

I just skimmed the article:

1. The wing rotation. I find it amusing he lists a young rookie to be unprepared for the NBA as an issue. Were we to expect anything else?

2. Jose Calderon is not immune of being moved. In fact he would have been moved if it was not for Michael Jordan saying no to an agreed-upon trade.

3. Reggie Evans was with the team 2 seasons ago, Magloire last year. I guess they do not qualify as veteran presences in AP's books.

4. No discernible vision. That one was arguable until this past Summer when, my opinion, The Spin Doctor rolled the dice to try to save his job.

My recollection is almost everyone was happy that we got a steal when Ed Davis dropped to us. Although I mentioned the lack of due diligence before - ED was not worked out by Toronto - I think Ed Davis was not a bad pick at all. I still believe ED has a good chance at becoming a good rotation player and that's an above-average return on a late lottery pick in my opinion.

Terrence Ross is a low ceiling player? I have no clue actually and I doubt AP has any additional information to warrant such a harsh judgment. Some teams were very high on him and my assumption is they have a much more informed opinion than we do.

Media darlings, like Austin Rivers and Jimmer Fredette the year before, do not always look as good as the media make them to be. To Jimmer's defense, he does look like he can really shoot the 3 and I expect him to have a long career as a specialty player.

5. Culture of excuses. It's a valid point but you could say the same thing about half the teams in the league, if not more.

Having said that, I don't want The Spin Doctor's contract to be extended, at least in a GM capacity.

[slaw]

whether anyone wants to admit it or not, there is a degree of luck involved in any sporting event...and DD's point, as rooted in excuse-making as it is, is simply a reflection that the teams feels that they've been unlucky to some degree. he's wildly exagerating the # of L's that would have been W's if not for bad luck - i'd put the number in the 4-5 range, optimistically.

I don't disagree that there is an element of randomness and chance. Having said that, the exact same reasons for this current team's failure are not really any different from last year, the year before, the year before that, or really anytime over the last 5seasons.

When you lose one or two close games in the 4th quarter, you can chalk it up to luck. When you consistently lose games in the exact same way night after night, it's not just bad luck.

[Michel G]

Time to clear house and start from scratch (keep JV).

We did. This is the team we have. Bloggers like Andy Phillips like to complain about our below average wing rotation but offer little concrete solutions. His article is narrow minded and pointless. Athletic wings that can create their own shot are a rare breed and are only moved under special circumstances. Like OKC having to move Harden because of Tax related issues. Raptors management have been trying to fill that void since VC left. Don't you think if it was that easy they would have done it. Unless we get lucky and Kevin Durant's clone drops in from the sky, we're left cheering for the flawed team that we have.

One last point. There is no indication that Colangelo will be fired even if the Raptors miss the playoffs. I wouldn't resign him. He had his run. But I have no idea how large corporations think. Wasting energy on bemoaning the fact that he still runs the team or that he hasn't traded Bargani is pointless.

My wish list for the Raptors is 1) Win tonight's game in Houston 2) Just fight for a goddamn playoff stop, I want to cheer for something concrete 3) Win another playoff series one day, it doesn't have to be this year - One Day

[p00ka]

Finally a couple of people recognizing the value of that "article", and I use the term lightly! I don't want to touch whatever minor differences I have with the odd detail, so kudos to:
Hugmenot & Michael G !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Who the fk is this Andy Phillips anyway? He writes like a disgruntled fan, not an informed professional journalist. Jose immune? Excuse me, but even fans know he was traded once and has been rumoured on the block more. Ross low ceiling? Really, what's his expertise and knowledge to declare this? The fool is going to eat those words. Shit, a month ago he was writing how Lowry and Bargnani are going to be a good 1-2 offensive punch, but after 13 games of the worse schedule in the league (anybody else have 2 x 4 games in 5 nights with majority on the road?), and some heart breaking losses, it's this kind of sensationalist garbage?

He could have taken that piece, pretty much word for word, from here, so I guess he accomplished his goal to get more readers, lol.

[yertu damkule]

Those are all fair points and they might indeed be "better" than their record indicates.

For some reason i just don't get that feeling though. Last year I looked at the roster and I coudln't believe how they were competing and winning games here and there. I never thought they were one of the worst teams last year, even though at the start of that season I thought they were top 3 lottery for sure. They ended up battling on the defensive end and won some games they probably shouldn't have.

This year however, they are losing to Pistons, Bobcats, etc who are teams I had already assumed they had passed in this stage of the game in team development. One game is one game so I shouldn't overanalyze it but it feels like these other teams wised up and started to defend and Raps have taken a step back with new emphasis on offence and fading in 4th quarters.

I will be patient and observe until the end of the year but I am not pleased with what I'm seeing on the court. It seems more like a mess, than a work in progress.

i don't get why losing to teams that are on the same relative level - charl., det, etc. - is cause to hang their heads. yes, those are the games they 'have' to win, but it's not as though they aren't showing up, or competing, they just aren't putting together complete games...which should be entirely expected considering all the things i noted about (incorporating new players, injuries, and general shitiness from the 'best' (offensive) player on the team).

so, we can focus on the record, or we can focus on the fact that despite the above factors, and what most seem to agree has been questionable officiating, they've hung tough against teams that are in a higher class than them. i'm normally a total pessimist, but i can't get too worked up over the first 14 games.

[Michel G]

Hmm... I wonder if Andy Phillips still thinks that Ross is unprepared for the NBA, or whatever nonsense thing he said. I can't be bothered to go back to look at the article. Ross showed all the attributes last night that the Raptors said he possessed when they drafted him.