you are a bigger man than most of the people in this town. The collective psyche of the basketball loving crowd in this city will explode if we go through another terrible losing season only to wind up giving up pick #4 (or even 5 or 6). That stench will last a long time (somewhere between the vince trade and Araujo)Nilanka wrote:
My reasoning is that, at some point over the next 5 years, we owe OKC a lottery pick. That's an inevitability. So it makes the most sense to lose that pick in what's expected to be a weak draft.
We can then set our sights on the Andrew Wiggins Sweepstakes of 2014
"I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder
I want to believe your theory but I agree that no one is lining up to give us high draft picks for any or all of AB, JC, Kleiza and Amir. Sure, we gave up an ok pick for Lowry (no pun intended). But, one, none of those players are perceived to be as good as lowry and, two, that was Colangelo making the deal.
You give to examples. One is based on a pick coming through on a 2.8% chance to win the lottery. I'll even grant you there is a 10% chance to get into the top three. Are those solid odds for building a team? The next example was not a salary dump..the Nets resigned Wallace (they wanted him). It was also the exceptional circumstance of a basement dwelling team being moved and bought by a gazillionaire. That won't happen too often.
There may be better examples out there, so find them if they are. Otherwise, I can't advocate the plan of trying to succeed by buying your lottery ticket at the corner store that just sold the last winning one.
At this point, wouldn't you be willing to trade our Italian Millionaire to the Russion Billionaire for the PF they seem to be marginalizing (Kris Humphries) who's deal expires after next year? I know that deal can't happen until Jan when recent contract movement restrictions are lifted, but wouldn't K-Hump be a better fit stylistically for this team and would give us a nice expiring deal next year to trade. Plus, there were people interested in K-Hump last off-season, but the Nets simply out-bid them. Perhaps those teams are still interested and are willing to give us a first rounder along with their own salary dump.
Go Raps Go
In Casey We Trust
And what is the alternative? Stay on the same path and be horrible?
The Raptors are already going to be a horrible team for the forseeable future. They might as well take on bad contracts and get more picks to increase their odds. 4-18. 2nd worst team in the league. bottom 10 on O. Bottom 5 on D.
One path has no chance. The other path has a small chance. I take small chance over no chance any day. Also, there is generally more than 1 great talent in a draft and that talent is not always selected #1. More draft picks that are likely to be lottery increases opportunities to land a top talent via the draft.
I know the circumstances how Wallace was obtained. The point was the Blazers got a pick and it turned in to Lillard.
The Raptors are already ahead in the game with 4 decent young players on the roster.
"Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."Tim Leiweke
The bottom line is that I'd rather have Cleveland's roster than Toronto's. Both have similar records, but Cleveland has stock piled draft picks and cap space. They already have a franchise player in Irving as well.
They haven't done a good job in drafting, in my opinion, but have gone about rebuilding the right way. That's the type of model that I would have liked to seen in Toronto once Bosh left. It's not too late to try again though. It just has to be done with a better GM.
But these are both 100% speculation and completely your opinion; neither has any real proof to back it up besides our slow/shitty start to the season. Which has, don't get me wrong, been excrutiatingly slow & shitty.
The signs have not been promising, no, but I don't believe 21 games make an entire season; a season that I wasn't even expecting to make the playoffs in anyway.
I am so clever that sometimes I don't understand a single word of what I am saying.
― Oscar Wilde
+1
It's being afraid of drastic change that kept us from trading Bosh and hoping that AB would someday turning into an All Star. Cut your loses and move on, but just don't stand still. You have to respect a GM like Morey whom doesn't rely on hope to get his team ahead. He looks at the situation, evaluates and then does what is necessary to give his team the best chance. The slow death BC is putting us through isn't part of any grand plan that he has to turn this team around. It's based on him not wanting to take chances.
I'm sorry.
In my opinion the Raptors are already going to be a horrible team for the forseeable future because they have the same management making decisions that has lead to a 5 year playoff drought and are currently in 2nd last place in the entire league with a bottom 10 offense and a bottom 5 defense.
In my opinion, 22 games does in fact make a season when the record is 4-18, the playoffs are out of the question, and there is no sign of change on the horizon.
The season can be salvaged, in my opinion, but it is going to take drastic changes starting with #tradeBargnani and Colangelo's departure.
"Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."Tim Leiweke
So much truth to this. People tend to fear change.
Colangelo has been fighting the inevitable for years, and has simply wasted time in the process.
Time to tear down and rebuild.
Perfect situation right now would be to get a first round pick for Bargnani (anywhere in the first round), keep Jose and let him expire (can then resign cheap next year or not, doesn't matter.). Don't worry about whether we win or lose games this year, play the young guys (start Jonas and Ross) hope the team is atleast good enough so that the pick is sent to OKC and is out of our hair. See what else can be moved to free up cap space (Demar!) so the team can add bad contracts and high picks.
It isn't speculation. This team was awful two years ago and awful last year. They have been awful this year. Like it or not, most of the same players are around. It isn't just about these past 22 games, it's about the games over the last three years. The team is awful, not getting any better, and they still do not have one young player who projects as a superstar.
This is about an awful roster, a team in disarray, a failed plan, and a coaching system that seems to have run its course in 80 games. There are no positive signs.
+ infinity and beyond.
"Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."Tim Leiweke
Fair. Emotionally it is painful, but the reality is the pick is gone, time to move on.
Your bolded statement is what scares me about taking the approach of blowing it all up and starting a completely new 3-5 year rebuild from scratch, by taking on bad contracts to accumulate assets (ie: picks and youngsters). Regardless who the GM is, even if a solid pick is made (based on consensus at time of pick), there is absolutely no guarantee that the team will be any better in 3-5 years than it is now (or projected to be in 1-3 years from now with the current core).
I argued this all of last year and have reiterated it in a few posts recently, that the only problem with BC's post-Bosh rebuild is that he rushed it. DeRozan, Davis and Valanciunas were all pretty decent picks for where they were picked. The problem is that after drafting Valanciunas, BC rushed from rebuilding into building. Valanciunas was going to stay in Europe for at least one season, a new head coach was hired and it was a lockout-shortened season with no training camp... it was a perfect storm to go into full-tank mode: trade away high priced, veteran, expiring and non-core players for assets (picks and youngsters), while aiming for a top-5 (at least) pick in a loaded draft.
After adding a top-5 pick from the past draft (instead of Ross) and stockpiling other picks and young assets, who knows what subsequent moves BC could have made (ie: Harden??) this past offseason (as opposed to going all-in on a geriatric Nash and the overpaying for Fields in an at least semi-related move). This season should have been the first 'building' season, with playoffs not becoming a realistic goal until next season at the very earliest, which would have gone a long way towards tempering fan expectations.
I do 100% agree that this team's biggest problem is a lack of talent. IMO, this team only has 1 legitimate starter on the roster, and he's an increasingly selfish shoot-first PG who's overrated defensively (Lowry). Valanciunas will no doubt become a legit starter, but he's at least 2 seasons away from becoming that. Bargnani & DeRozan are this team's 2 'go to' players (offensively), but both of them have such inefficient one-dimensional games that they are best suited for backup roles on a legit contending team. Davis/Amir, Fields (if he returns to form after returning to injury) and Ross (2 seasons away) are all solid bench players as well. The rest of this roster (Gray, Acy, Kleiza, Pietrus, Anderson, Calderon, Lucas) are not in the future plans for this team, for various/multiple reasons.
I don't think a blow-it-up full blown rebuild is necessarily required, nor would I be opposed to it (in which case Valanciunas is the only player on the roster I'd worry about keeping). Whether it's a re-tooling type of rebuild or a complete rebuild, I just want it to be properly done without being rushed, with the long-term future in mind and with a goal/model for success to be sustainable.
---
On a related note, one thing that irks me is that I was in a very small minority last year when I was openly promoting tanking, for the reasons outlined above. This minority of RR posters was chastised for not believing in our great young players and for underestimating the intangible benefit that useless wins provides to team chemistry and building a winning culture. Yet here we are this season, having won all those useless games last season and having stuck with the same primary core, and suddenly an overwhelming majority of RR posters is voting to "Blow it up"... what happened to developing a winning culture and sticking with our young core through the learning experience in the name of team chemistry??? Sometimes there's a method to the madness of the tank commanders...
Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Tue Dec 11th, 2012 at 12:54 PM.
First bold section: more draft picks equals higher opportunity in the lottery and more chances to find the elusive 'talent'.
The middle section is coulda, shoulda, woulda. Past doesn't matter. We didn't get a top pick.
Second bold section: You were right. So were the others. I, like many, were wrong. The problem with last year is that none of those lessons learned have stuck. This is the 2nd worst team in the league who has lost in a variety of ways to a variety of different talent. The only constants are a horrible offense/defense and losing.
"Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."Tim Leiweke
Fair enough about the first bold part. I guess it all depends on the 'bad' contract the team is considering bringing in, both in terms of amount and length, as well as the quality of pick(s) being acquired.
As for the second bold part, that's exactly why I talked about the past, so that we don't repeat the same mistakes (ie: rushing a true rebuilding process).
As frustrated as I am getting with BC (and most posters have been far more frustrated for way longer than I), I wonder whether it was him or ownership that pushed for an accelerated transition from 'rebuilding' to 'building' and then from 'building' to 'targeting playoffs'? I'm certainly not defending BC, I'm honestly just wondering aloud. I worry that the better than expected record last year got fans, management and ownership all too excited, which caused the rebuild to be even further rushed.
Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Tue Dec 11th, 2012 at 01:11 PM.
I am 100% serious when I ask this: does it matter what 'bad' contract comes back? The Raps are awful. That is not opinion. That is 5 years of fact combined with a regression this season leading to the 2nd worst record in the league past the 1/4 mark of the season and a bad offensive team and an atrocious defensive team.
"Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."Tim Leiweke
The fact that he got a 2 yr. deal with a 3rd yr. team option clearly tells us that the owners gave him a certain amount of time to get the job done i.e. make the play-offs. Owners(MLSE) do not look at it from a basketball point of view and understandably so. They simply look at it from a business point of view. Not that BC is a bad basketball man but the fact is that he simply hasn't delivered. Unless something drastic happens his days are numbered and he knows it. In the limited time that he has, convincing ownership to take on long term contracts thereby accumulating draft picks, is a luxury he does not have. Among a few things that ownership may allow him to do could be firing the coach and maybe promote an assistant to be interim head coach.
Attitude Is A Choice.
I would say that it does. Getting a bad contract with 1-2 years remaining wouldn't be bad and I could even live with 3 years remaining, if the pick(s) were high enough in their respective draft class(es). However, I wouldn't want to completely cripple the franchise's financial flexibility for the next 3-5 years, just to land a couple picks that may or may not pan out. Even if the Raps aren't likely to be major players in free agency, having no cap space for multiple seasons also severely limits their ability to make trades or even get in as minor players to help facilitate larger trades.
I was all for the trade that Cleveland made with the Clippers 2 years ago, which saw them land a top-5 pick for taking on Baron Davis' contract. Even if they didn't amnesty him, I think he only had another year left on it anyway. Had he had 3+ seaons remaining (without amnesty option), suddenly that trade looks much less appealing.
I've been talking about deals with 3 years remaining - 2 after this season.
As the current Raps are constructed, there is no flexibility anyways.
The Raps are not going to land any All-Star or near All-STar talent with their current assets even combined with flexibility. They had financial flexibility for the last 2-3 seasons and it brought jack shit. I know this because I was talking about it non-stop and it became nothing.
The Raptors are bad and show no signs of changing that trend. To maximize on that they should, in my opinion, acquire as many assets as possible that reward being bad. In 2-3 years time is the time to be flaunting financial flexibility to sign a star, veteran free agent or make a James Harden-style trade. Taking on a bunch of bad contracts that expire in the next 2-3 seasons would be a good way to start that off - while accumulating draft picks in the process.
"Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."Tim Leiweke
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