Addressing myths approaching Lowry's return

[theycallmeZZ]

I think Lowry should be given a chance. Bargnani has played without Lowry, I don't think Lowry has played without Bargnani.

As a side note, I think Lowry has been sitting beside Bargnani on the bench? That dude is an energy sapper, get away from Bargs asap.

I'm trying to imagine a conversation with them on the bench:

Lowry: The team's winning!

Bargnani: *breathes through mouth*

Lowry: So, do you think the team will be better once we're healthy?

Bargnani: *breathes through mouth*

Lowry: Forget it, I'm going to sit beside Kleiza.

Kleiza: *mumbling curses at the ref*

[JimiCliff]

So it would appear both myself and, much more importantly, Lowry are aware of that fact.

He can say whatever he wants, but on the court, basketball players are wired how they're wired. Some guys look to share the ball, other guys not so much. Lowry is definitely the latter. I have my doubts about whether these things can ever really be changed, but I'm looking forward to seeing what effect the recent success has on him.

[pesterm1]

The one thing I will point out is that Jose Calderon is a better leader from a teaching perspective. Here is why... Jose helps nurture the young players, he knows not to get to low or to high, and he always stays positive and that rub off on other players. For example, last game vs. the Spurs Ross made a terrible pass to E.Davis and it was easily stolen by Bonner, leading to an easy layup in transition by SA. Shortly after that play, the Raptors called a time out and the camera pans to the Raps bench. Next, we see Ross walk over with his head down and Jose walks up to him , gives him a high-5 and consoles Ross. If this were Lowry you can bet you would see far more frustration and dirty looks. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of Lowry, but this is just something I notice when comparing the 2 PG's. Lowry has a lot of fire in his game but HE DOES need to relax a little bit. It's good to be passionate but he needs to try and use that passion in a positive way, especially towards his own teammates. If he wants to be mad, be mad at the opponents.
Team chemistry is very important, more-so when your a young team.

When Lowry does come back I hope he keeps some of his complaints to himself. At the start of the season he was complaining to the Refs quite often and I don't think that will help us out very much.

[Phat Farmer]

I think the biggest reason why Calderon has been so effective is that he is much more aggressive offensively than he normally is. He has always been a great passer, but he is actually being more aggressive taking shots, which I think has really opened the game up for him. He seems much healthier and fit than in other seasons as well. As Matt has pointed out before, I dont think it's a coincidence this is coming in his contract year. I personally dont believe Jose can sustain this level of play the entire year. We've seen him break down before with heavy usage, and at 32, he is one or two more injuries away from playing out his remaining years in Spain. Lowry is our future, and he should be given the keys soon enough once he is healthy. Hopefully he has seen enough from him team in the last few games to have gained some more trust in them to perform and not to burden himself so much.

[pesterm1]

I really do agree with you Matt.

I think that Biggest change with this team is that the have finally gone back to what gave them positive results last year. We have slowed the pace and have made defense the priority.

After that meeting between Colangelo and MLSE, you can see the team is playing different. Brian was probably told to keep his nose out of the coaching and let Casey be the Coach. Since then we are finally seeing a Dwayne Casey team.

Something I notice that I dont think is talked about very often is how our team is most successful when the guys just play and stop worrying personal stats (what certain fans want to see). After watching all the games last season, it seems we are at our strongest when every guy gets some of every stat. We dont need players always scoring in the 20's, just as long as every guy on the team collectively fills up the boxscore on the offense and defensive side of the ball. I could care less what the players stats are, a Win is a Win. Just get us the ! and move on to the next game. Stat stuffing is overrated and only matters to the easily excitable fans.

[octothorp]

- I beleive the Raps are 7-7 with Calderon starting and 2-13 with Lowry starting. Are you saying that none of the 13 games that Lowry started were winnable games?
- Other factors have played major roles in their 7 wins with Calderon at the helm (better coaching for one) but you can't dismiss the fact that the team HAS come together under Calderon (for whatever reason)

Okay, let's see how much of that can be explained by both strength-of-schedule and home-away schedule.

At home, we are 2-2 with Lowry as the starter, with wins over Minnesota and Phoenix, the opening night loss to Indiana, and the overtime loss to the Spurs. With Calderon, we are 5-3 at home, with the four recent home wins (Houston, Orlando, Detroit, Dallas), plus an additional win against Dallas. And losses against Philadelphia, Utah in OT, and Brooklyn. Lowry's got the tougher schedule here, with his only losses to Indiana and San Antonio, the two best road teams that we've played. On the other hand, our worst home loss was clearly the Philadelphia game that Calderon started. Despite the better record, there's not much of an argument for Calderon delivering better results at home.

On the road, Calderon has a slight edge. Obviously, he won two of his games, (2-3 record overall), and one of those was an impressive win over Indiana, arguably Calderon's best game as a Raptor. His other win came against bottom-feeder Cleveland. All of the bottom-feeders or even average teams that we've played on the road with Lowry at the helm have been close games: losses to Charlotte, Detroit, Philly, and Sacramento. But most of Lowry's road games have been losses to excellent home teams: Utah, Denver, Memphis, Houston, Portland, Clippers. So while Calderon deserves credit for leading the Raptors to their only truly unlikely win of the season thus far, there isn't a whole lot in his resume thus far that surpasses what Lowry has done.

The team has come together because we've actually had time at home for Casey to run regular practices, and for the team to get into a routine. It's no coincidence that every stretch where the team has played well (the very beginning of the season, the Utah OT loss and Indiana win, the recent winning streak) have involved stretches of several days at home. Infact, every time the team gets a significant amount of time at home, the result has been a drastically improved style of play.

[Axel]

A fun stat that makes me like Lowry even more.

Lowry is currently averaging 5.5 Free Throw Attempts per game. Good for 14th in the league. When you take out the games he left early due to injury, that jumps to 6.2 FTA per game while hitting 81.8% this season (career 78.6%). On a team that doesn't have a lot of shot creators, free throw attempts are a great indicator of who is getting efficient scoring attempts. Lowry and Demar are both up there, but Lowry's 6.2 would put him 8th in the league.

So Jose can give ED, and Amir all the looks they want. The most efficient offence is going to be Lowry and Demar driving hard.

[BrydenB]

I'm in agreement with Matt too. Some other things I would like to tack onto the "pro KL" argument:

Raptors are 2-13 with KL: Anyone remember how close some of those losses were? We all seem to speak as if they were blowouts and he was a non-factor. I'm not trying to sound like a whiner, but a couple calls from the refs, a couple of shots going in, or some random opponent not making flukes (Jefferson for 3 anybody?!), this record looks MUCH better. And yes, that is against tougher opponents too.

KL will just Hero Ball again: Anyone remember how terrible the offense was when Lowry was chucking shots? I do. No movement, jumpers clanging everywhere, no layups or dunks. Of course he was trying to do it himself! No one seemed interested in helping! Also, don't underestimate the importance of getting to see the team play and win from the sideline. NBA players aren't stupid. I'm sure Lowry sees how well and how much fun the team has playing together and knows thats how he has to play. He has hopefully also seen the defence is better without him helping so much and gambling too.

The last thing: Lowry's attitude. I don't think anyone has spoken about this yet. I want someone on this team that has his attitude and (I hate this word) swagger. The team can't flourish with 5 nice guys on the court loving each other and playing as a team without a face all the time. It needs that guy that brings the mean and toughness. Chris Paul brought this attitude to the Clippers and look at them. Granted they are a waaaay more talented team, and CP3 is obviously better than KL, but I think its the same idea.

All this being said, we all should take a wait and see approach with Lowry. If he brings what he can and buys in to what the team has done without him, great. If not, I would consider flipping him for something good (what that would be is for another thread). Another thought for a different thread, I'm not sure I WANT to pay KL to stick around. If he demands something like 4 years $40 million, I'd rather have an asset instead, thats a lot of money to a DD/KL backcourt that isn't close to elite.

[BasketballCrush]

I've never understood the argument that aa great point guard speeds up development. What it does is get your guys easy looks that a lesser point won't get you, which artificially inflates your player's value. It is certainly good to have a guy like that for winning games but I think it actually slows down development because everything get's spoonfed to your guys. I think a scoring point guard gives just as much oppurtunity.

Calderon can be just as much of a mentor on the bench. Lowry's so called "attitude" has not made itself evident since he arrived here, he seems very competitive and hungry, but that is the sort of player you want your youth around.

Lowry will be the starter by the end of the season, he is both a better player and a better fit for the team.

It's quite simple really. You don't become a better player by learning to play 1 on 5. This is a team game. Not the globetrotters. Lots of 1on1 players out there that want to do it all themselves, and when you put them on NCAA teams or the NBA, things fall apart.



A good point guard finds the open man, a rookie will quickly learn that in order to get shots, he needs to get into those feeding positions. Conversely, you could be finding open looks as a rookie, and your poor point guard is not recognizing your effort and you learn to play on your own, instead of like a team player. (this will hinder your development when you play for a quality team that moves the ball)


You can never learn this game shooting the ball at the playground. You really need a good play maker, and to be in a 5 on 5 environment, where roles are established.



So the idea that you can learn good basketball skills, with a poor quarterback, is not something I will ever agree to.

EDIT: BTW, just to add. This game is about ease. The simple play is the correct play. An easy look that gets you a basket uncontested, is the PERFECT play. This is what each team aspires too. Don't let easy baskets fool you into thinking that nothing got learned on that play. What got learnt is how to DESTROY A DEFENSE, so that they could not even contest it.

[Matt52]

Great post Matt. Always impressed with your ability to use reason when so many rely on emotions to argue their point. I do have a couple counters, more for arguments sake than anything else:



- It's not about whether or not Lowry helps develop our young guys, time and playing (as you point out) go a long way to do that (not to mention coaching and their own practice regiment)... however, you can't dismiss the fact that a great ball distributor (like a Nash) makes everybody on the floor better. ED, TR and DD will develop with whoever they play with based on other factors, but the point guard can surely speed that rate up. (side note - so does the confidence that comes with winning)
- As well, Casey has been impressed with Calderon's mentorship of TRoss... which may have nothing to do with how many minutes they play together. Could it be that Calderon's attitude (said he has recently decided to make this his team) has improved since he has been starter? Could it be that Lowry's abrasive attitude and the "keys to the franchise" put Calderon in a place where he wasn't feeling comfortable leading?



- I beleive the Raps are 7-7 with Calderon starting and 2-13 with Lowry starting. Are you saying that none of the 13 games that Lowry started were winnable games?
- Other factors have played major roles in their 7 wins with Calderon at the helm (better coaching for one) but you can't dismiss the fact that the team HAS come together under Calderon (for whatever reason)



- But it is just coincidence that Lowry has been out?
- Again I totally disagree with the myth that "Lowry's absence is why the team is winning"... it is most definitely multi-factoral (as you mention later); however, 'Barg's absence is why the team is winning' is also not the whole story. Have the Raps never won with Bargs? (sidenote - #tradebargnani)



We will see soon enough how much these other factors play into the team's success, or if Lowry's approach is not a match with this group of guys.

Lets hope Lowry adds to the teams improvement and we can start winning against some of the top teams as well... Go Raps!

Booom! There it is. I might be totally wrong and we will see soon enough.

[BasketballCrush]

There is no such thing as "easy looks" in the NBA, just great point guards.



(and if we think easy looks are meh... we really are loosing our collective sanity)

[BasketballCrush]

btw, i really enjoyed the exchange between matt and the coach. Saw this thread on my g3 while having to do all sorts of chores, and could not rush back fast enough to contribute to it.

[special1]

While you can say Davis and Ross are better because of consistent minutes, you can't underestimate the value of receiving the ball in the right place at the right time....something the current starter does extremely well.

Just saying.

Well, lets hope Jose Continues to give them the ball in the right place at the right time (even with the second unit). There's no reason to stop now!

[BasketballCrush]

We have been talking about the rookies, but from my understanding the player that benefits the most from Jose on the floor is Amir Johnson. So its not just rookies.

[Matt52]

Okay, let's see how much of that can be explained by both strength-of-schedule and home-away schedule.

At home, we are 2-2 with Lowry as the starter, with wins over Minnesota and Phoenix, the opening night loss to Indiana, and the overtime loss to the Spurs. With Calderon, we are 5-3 at home, with the four recent home wins (Houston, Orlando, Detroit, Dallas), plus an additional win against Dallas. And losses against Philadelphia, Utah in OT, and Brooklyn. Lowry's got the tougher schedule here, with his only losses to Indiana and San Antonio, the two best road teams that we've played. On the other hand, our worst home loss was clearly the Philadelphia game that Calderon started. Despite the better record, there's not much of an argument for Calderon delivering better results at home.

On the road, Calderon has a slight edge. Obviously, he won two of his games, (2-3 record overall), and one of those was an impressive win over Indiana, arguably Calderon's best game as a Raptor. His other win came against bottom-feeder Cleveland. All of the bottom-feeders or even average teams that we've played on the road with Lowry at the helm have been close games: losses to Charlotte, Detroit, Philly, and Sacramento. But most of Lowry's road games have been losses to excellent home teams: Utah, Denver, Memphis, Houston, Portland, Clippers. So while Calderon deserves credit for leading the Raptors to their only truly unlikely win of the season thus far, there isn't a whole lot in his resume thus far that surpasses what Lowry has done.

The team has come together because we've actually had time at home for Casey to run regular practices, and for the team to get into a routine. It's no coincidence that every stretch where the team has played well (the very beginning of the season, the Utah OT loss and Indiana win, the recent winning streak) have involved stretches of several days at home. Infact, every time the team gets a significant amount of time at home, the result has been a drastically improved style of play.

Nice break down.

[BasketballCrush]

I have enjoyed Lowry's play, but it does reek of Bahama James in the last few minutes.


It has been pointed out that against weak opponents we have been close with Lowry. However, it is also those games that made me see that our team kept falling apart in the final minutes. We always got away from what kept us in those games and Lowry would start to take an increasing dominant role in that time frame. The result was that we lost all those close games.

Even though, in many of those efforts, we played strongly as a TEAM. The team would fall apart in the final possessions. Guys that we though should see the ball, never did. (alot of times it was blamed on coaching)

(either Casey is changing his coaching for which point guard is on the floor, or these point guards are bringing different things to the team)


EDIT: BTW, I don't belive in either, OR's, I think its combination of all things. I do think Casey has adjusted his coaching, and I do think that both point guards bring different styles. I also think that Lowry's faults are correctable, but unfortunately, they are up to him to address. I am banking he can do that. Everyone has shown adjustment, it would by silly to think Lowry can't do so as well.

[Matt52]

I have enjoyed Lowry's play, but it does reek of Bahama James in the last few minutes.


It has been pointed out that against weak opponents we have been close with Lowry. However, it is also those games that made me see that our team kept falling apart in the final minutes. We always got away from what kept us in those games and Lowry would start to take an increasing dominant role in that time frame. The result was that we lost all those close games.

Even though, in many of those efforts, we played strongly as a TEAM. The team would fall apart in the final possessions. Guys that we though should see the ball, never did. (alot of times it was blamed on coaching)

(either Casey is changing his coaching for which point guard is on the floor, or these point guards are bringing different things to the team)


EDIT: BTW, I don't belive in either, OR's, I think its combination of all things. I do think Casey has adjusted his coaching, and I do think that both point guards bring different styles. I also think that Lowry's faults are correctable, but unfortunately, they are up to him to address. I am banking he can do that. Everyone has shown adjustment, it would by silly to think Lowry can't do so as well.

There is no doubt Lowry was guilty of ridiculous hero-ball that led to a few close loses... no question in my mind. But I find it hard to believe he hasn't noticed the change in team play the last 7 games. I also find it hard to believe he is unable to adapt.

I think Casey's style has undoubtedly changed in the last 7 games. The culmination of the road trip in Portland coincided with the 2 injuries to Lowry and Bargnani which was the absolute breaking point or bottom of the barrel - however you want to look at it.

[BasketballCrush]

I am hoping everyone on the team is adjusting, including Casey.

My intention for that point was to deflect the full blame from Casey, which was what we heard earlier on in the season. (I really like him as a coach for this young team)


I also am finding hard to gloss over the fact that Jose did not start winning, until Andrea was off the floor which in turn brought some much needed banging from the PF position. Anderson at SF is also a factor that should not be ignored.

[red monkey]

Great post!!!

[Puffer]

...I also am finding hard to gloss over the fact that Jose did not start winning, until Andrea was off the floor which in turn brought some much needed banging from the PF position...

As craiger has repeatedly, and most eloquently argued. The teams winning streak had more to do with no AB than no KL.