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Addressing myths approaching Lowry's return

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  • #16
    The Coach wrote: View Post
    - It's not about whether or not Lowry helps develop our young guys, time and playing (as you point out) go a long way to do that (not to mention coaching and their own practice regiment)... however, you can't dismiss the fact that a great ball distributor (like a Nash) makes everybody on the floor better. ED, TR and DD will develop with whoever they play with based on other factors, but the point guard can surely speed that rate up. (side note - so does the confidence that comes with winning)
    - As well, Casey has been impressed with Calderon's mentorship of TRoss... which may have nothing to do with how many minutes they play together. Could it be that Calderon's attitude (said he has recently decided to make this his team) has improved since he has been starter? Could it be that Lowry's abrasive attitude and the "keys to the franchise" put Calderon in a place where he wasn't feeling comfortable leading?
    I've never understood the argument that aa great point guard speeds up development. What it does is get your guys easy looks that a lessser point won't get you, which artificially inflates your player's value. It is certainly good to have a guy like that for winning games but I think it actually slows down development because everything get's spoonfed to your guys. I think a scoring point guard gives just as much oppurtunity.

    Calderon can be just as much of a mentor on the bench. Lowry's so called "attitude" has not made itself evident since he arrived here, he seems very competitive and hungry, but that is the sort of player you want your youth around.

    Lowry will be the starter by the end of the season, he is both a better player and a better fit for the team.
    "Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."

    -Churchill

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    • #17
      I think what we've seen go on the last 7 or 8 games has little to do with Lowry, and alot to do with Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon.

      A while ago I posted the numbers showing an extremely high correlation between this teams defense over the years and Andrea Bargnani. What it showed was the more minutes Andrea played, the worse this teams defense was and it wasn't a minor difference. I personally think the last series of games has been evidence of that once again. This team is going to consistently be a bad defensive team as long as Andrea is on the floor, and it doesn't matter if its regular Bargnani, 13 game Bargnani, or 21 game Bargnani from this year. The drastic improvement in D we've seen has nothing to do with Lowry being out, but rather Andrea being out.

      Jose on the other hand has gone highly underrated by fans and this organization, and his elite ability to pass (and control) the ball has a great positive effect on the team. He's not flashy, but shows confidence in his teammates by giving them the ball, and helps them out by doing so at the right time and in the right place. While his defense is not winning awards, it has never been the reason for this teams bad D (see the paragraph above). So here again I don't think the 'team ball' this team has played on offense has anything to do with Lowry being out, but rather because Jose was in. Jose is just better at getting his teammates the ball, and this isn't because Lowry is bad at it or doesn't do it. Jose is just quietly spectacular at it.

      When Lowry comes back there is little reason for me to believe what we've seen over the last series of games can't continue (depending ofcourse on what Casey does in terms of minutes and play time). What I want to see though is Lowry having to earn his starting role back by out playing Jose. I don't want to see Lowry just thrown backing into the starting line up after 2 or 3 games, even if he is playing well, as long as Jose and the team are both playing well. Jose deserves what he earned, yet at the same time Lowry should have all rights to earn it aswell. But both the reward and the accountability need to be handed out equally to both players. If this somehow creates a problem for one of the PGs or the other, it will be pretty obvious who to ship out. If Casey runs a 2 PG line up, have Jose play the 'point' and Lowry as the off guard.

      Almost forgot the most important part. Scour the league for a way to trade Bargnani. At this point it doesn't even matter what the return is aslong as its better than waiting until this offseason to amnesty him. Andrea being out has been the real boon for this team, it just happened to coincide with Lowry going down (which made people question Lowry rather than emphasizing the real problem).
      Last edited by Craiger; Fri Dec 28, 2012, 12:08 PM.

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      • #18
        The Coach wrote: View Post
        you can't dismiss the fact that a great ball distributor (like a Nash) makes everybody on the floor better.
        Yes, Nash makes players better. But Jose is not Nash. When can we stop the comparisons? If Jose was even close to Nash at any point in his career, we wouldn't be where we are today.

        The record since Jose took over is a mixed bag of things. Largely, Bargnani being out has forced the team to play the style that won us over last year. That's not a 100% knock on Barg's, but his presence seemed to counter our ideal culture/style of play. The schedule was a lot easier. Imagine for a second, that Lowry wasn't hurt and was playing at or close to the rate he started the season at (before he got hurt). Is there any reason to believe that a healthy Lowry wouldn't have been able to perform at a level at or higher than Jose during this hot streak?

        My biggest issue with people pegging Lowry as the problem and Jose as the savior is that this is the same Jose we have had for 7+ years. He hasn't been enough to pull us out of less than mediocre in the past, so how is he the answer at this point in his career? It's the same as Bargnani last year. A hot-streak that causes people to lose their grip on reality.

        Trading Jose is a MUST for this team to improve long-term. You can't let assets walk for nothing and build something. Trade him soon while his value is high and we can end the Jose-Kool-Aid every couple of years.
        Heir, Prince of Cambridge

        If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

        Comment


        • #19
          Axel wrote: View Post
          Yes, Nash makes players better. But Jose is not Nash. When can we stop the comparisons? If Jose was even close to Nash at any point in his career, we wouldn't be where we are today.

          The record since Jose took over is a mixed bag of things. Largely, Bargnani being out has forced the team to play the style that won us over last year. That's not a 100% knock on Barg's, but his presence seemed to counter our ideal culture/style of play. The schedule was a lot easier. Imagine for a second, that Lowry wasn't hurt and was playing at or close to the rate he started the season at (before he got hurt). Is there any reason to believe that a healthy Lowry wouldn't have been able to perform at a level at or higher than Jose during this hot streak?

          My biggest issue with people pegging Lowry as the problem and Jose as the savior is that this is the same Jose we have had for 7+ years. He hasn't been enough to pull us out of less than mediocre in the past, so how is he the answer at this point in his career? It's the same as Bargnani last year. A hot-streak that causes people to lose their grip on reality.

          Trading Jose is a MUST for this team to improve long-term. You can't let assets walk for nothing and build something. Trade him soon while his value is high and we can end the Jose-Kool-Aid every couple of years.
          Just like to point out that The Coach never said Jose was Nash, but rather a great ball distributor like Nash, which he is.

          Jose doesn't need to be as good as Nash at every other aspect of the game to be nearly as good as Nash at distributing the ball

          Nash career assist % - 41.85 4th in the history of the NBA
          Jose career assist % - 39.8 8th in the history of the NBA

          Trading Jose is not at all a MUST to improve this team long term. If he can be traded in a deal that helps the team long term and/or turns down a (reasonable) contract extension then it makes sense. But trading him just because his value is high isn't necessarily the best thing for the team. Even long term.

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          • #20
            Lowry is really animated on the bench has anyone seen Bargnani? what is he doing is he even traveling with the team? you can hear Lowry shouting and in te huddle with the team love that guy hes ready to come back. Make no assumption the team is better with Jose he will be taking back the start soon probably after tonights game or the one after that he just needs to get his groove back.

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            • #21
              I think Lowry should be given a chance. Bargnani has played without Lowry, I don't think Lowry has played without Bargnani.

              As a side note, I think Lowry has been sitting beside Bargnani on the bench? That dude is an energy sapper, get away from Bargs asap.

              I'm trying to imagine a conversation with them on the bench:

              Lowry: The team's winning!

              Bargnani: *breathes through mouth*

              Lowry: So, do you think the team will be better once we're healthy?

              Bargnani: *breathes through mouth*

              Lowry: Forget it, I'm going to sit beside Kleiza.

              Kleiza: *mumbling curses at the ref*
              Last edited by theycallmeZZ; Fri Dec 28, 2012, 01:13 PM.
              TORONTOOOOOO RAPTORSSSSSS

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              • #22
                Matt52 wrote: View Post
                So it would appear both myself and, much more importantly, Lowry are aware of that fact.
                He can say whatever he wants, but on the court, basketball players are wired how they're wired. Some guys look to share the ball, other guys not so much. Lowry is definitely the latter. I have my doubts about whether these things can ever really be changed, but I'm looking forward to seeing what effect the recent success has on him.
                "Stop eating your sushi."
                "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
                "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
                - Jack Armstrong

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                • #23
                  The one thing I will point out is that Jose Calderon is a better leader from a teaching perspective. Here is why... Jose helps nurture the young players, he knows not to get to low or to high, and he always stays positive and that rub off on other players. For example, last game vs. the Spurs Ross made a terrible pass to E.Davis and it was easily stolen by Bonner, leading to an easy layup in transition by SA. Shortly after that play, the Raptors called a time out and the camera pans to the Raps bench. Next, we see Ross walk over with his head down and Jose walks up to him , gives him a high-5 and consoles Ross. If this were Lowry you can bet you would see far more frustration and dirty looks. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of Lowry, but this is just something I notice when comparing the 2 PG's. Lowry has a lot of fire in his game but HE DOES need to relax a little bit. It's good to be passionate but he needs to try and use that passion in a positive way, especially towards his own teammates. If he wants to be mad, be mad at the opponents.
                  Team chemistry is very important, more-so when your a young team.

                  When Lowry does come back I hope he keeps some of his complaints to himself. At the start of the season he was complaining to the Refs quite often and I don't think that will help us out very much.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    I think the biggest reason why Calderon has been so effective is that he is much more aggressive offensively than he normally is. He has always been a great passer, but he is actually being more aggressive taking shots, which I think has really opened the game up for him. He seems much healthier and fit than in other seasons as well. As Matt has pointed out before, I dont think it's a coincidence this is coming in his contract year. I personally dont believe Jose can sustain this level of play the entire year. We've seen him break down before with heavy usage, and at 32, he is one or two more injuries away from playing out his remaining years in Spain. Lowry is our future, and he should be given the keys soon enough once he is healthy. Hopefully he has seen enough from him team in the last few games to have gained some more trust in them to perform and not to burden himself so much.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      I really do agree with you Matt.

                      I think that Biggest change with this team is that the have finally gone back to what gave them positive results last year. We have slowed the pace and have made defense the priority.

                      After that meeting between Colangelo and MLSE, you can see the team is playing different. Brian was probably told to keep his nose out of the coaching and let Casey be the Coach. Since then we are finally seeing a Dwayne Casey team.

                      Something I notice that I dont think is talked about very often is how our team is most successful when the guys just play and stop worrying personal stats (what certain fans want to see). After watching all the games last season, it seems we are at our strongest when every guy gets some of every stat. We dont need players always scoring in the 20's, just as long as every guy on the team collectively fills up the boxscore on the offense and defensive side of the ball. I could care less what the players stats are, a Win is a Win. Just get us the ! and move on to the next game. Stat stuffing is overrated and only matters to the easily excitable fans.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        The Coach wrote: View Post
                        - I beleive the Raps are 7-7 with Calderon starting and 2-13 with Lowry starting. Are you saying that none of the 13 games that Lowry started were winnable games?
                        - Other factors have played major roles in their 7 wins with Calderon at the helm (better coaching for one) but you can't dismiss the fact that the team HAS come together under Calderon (for whatever reason)
                        Okay, let's see how much of that can be explained by both strength-of-schedule and home-away schedule.

                        At home, we are 2-2 with Lowry as the starter, with wins over Minnesota and Phoenix, the opening night loss to Indiana, and the overtime loss to the Spurs. With Calderon, we are 5-3 at home, with the four recent home wins (Houston, Orlando, Detroit, Dallas), plus an additional win against Dallas. And losses against Philadelphia, Utah in OT, and Brooklyn. Lowry's got the tougher schedule here, with his only losses to Indiana and San Antonio, the two best road teams that we've played. On the other hand, our worst home loss was clearly the Philadelphia game that Calderon started. Despite the better record, there's not much of an argument for Calderon delivering better results at home.

                        On the road, Calderon has a slight edge. Obviously, he won two of his games, (2-3 record overall), and one of those was an impressive win over Indiana, arguably Calderon's best game as a Raptor. His other win came against bottom-feeder Cleveland. All of the bottom-feeders or even average teams that we've played on the road with Lowry at the helm have been close games: losses to Charlotte, Detroit, Philly, and Sacramento. But most of Lowry's road games have been losses to excellent home teams: Utah, Denver, Memphis, Houston, Portland, Clippers. So while Calderon deserves credit for leading the Raptors to their only truly unlikely win of the season thus far, there isn't a whole lot in his resume thus far that surpasses what Lowry has done.

                        The team has come together because we've actually had time at home for Casey to run regular practices, and for the team to get into a routine. It's no coincidence that every stretch where the team has played well (the very beginning of the season, the Utah OT loss and Indiana win, the recent winning streak) have involved stretches of several days at home. Infact, every time the team gets a significant amount of time at home, the result has been a drastically improved style of play.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          A fun stat that makes me like Lowry even more.

                          Lowry is currently averaging 5.5 Free Throw Attempts per game. Good for 14th in the league. When you take out the games he left early due to injury, that jumps to 6.2 FTA per game while hitting 81.8% this season (career 78.6%). On a team that doesn't have a lot of shot creators, free throw attempts are a great indicator of who is getting efficient scoring attempts. Lowry and Demar are both up there, but Lowry's 6.2 would put him 8th in the league.

                          So Jose can give ED, and Amir all the looks they want. The most efficient offence is going to be Lowry and Demar driving hard.
                          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            I'm in agreement with Matt too. Some other things I would like to tack onto the "pro KL" argument:

                            Raptors are 2-13 with KL: Anyone remember how close some of those losses were? We all seem to speak as if they were blowouts and he was a non-factor. I'm not trying to sound like a whiner, but a couple calls from the refs, a couple of shots going in, or some random opponent not making flukes (Jefferson for 3 anybody?!), this record looks MUCH better. And yes, that is against tougher opponents too.

                            KL will just Hero Ball again: Anyone remember how terrible the offense was when Lowry was chucking shots? I do. No movement, jumpers clanging everywhere, no layups or dunks. Of course he was trying to do it himself! No one seemed interested in helping! Also, don't underestimate the importance of getting to see the team play and win from the sideline. NBA players aren't stupid. I'm sure Lowry sees how well and how much fun the team has playing together and knows thats how he has to play. He has hopefully also seen the defence is better without him helping so much and gambling too.

                            The last thing: Lowry's attitude. I don't think anyone has spoken about this yet. I want someone on this team that has his attitude and (I hate this word) swagger. The team can't flourish with 5 nice guys on the court loving each other and playing as a team without a face all the time. It needs that guy that brings the mean and toughness. Chris Paul brought this attitude to the Clippers and look at them. Granted they are a waaaay more talented team, and CP3 is obviously better than KL, but I think its the same idea.

                            All this being said, we all should take a wait and see approach with Lowry. If he brings what he can and buys in to what the team has done without him, great. If not, I would consider flipping him for something good (what that would be is for another thread). Another thought for a different thread, I'm not sure I WANT to pay KL to stick around. If he demands something like 4 years $40 million, I'd rather have an asset instead, thats a lot of money to a DD/KL backcourt that isn't close to elite.

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                            • #29
                              hateslosing wrote: View Post
                              I've never understood the argument that aa great point guard speeds up development. What it does is get your guys easy looks that a lesser point won't get you, which artificially inflates your player's value. It is certainly good to have a guy like that for winning games but I think it actually slows down development because everything get's spoonfed to your guys. I think a scoring point guard gives just as much oppurtunity.

                              Calderon can be just as much of a mentor on the bench. Lowry's so called "attitude" has not made itself evident since he arrived here, he seems very competitive and hungry, but that is the sort of player you want your youth around.

                              Lowry will be the starter by the end of the season, he is both a better player and a better fit for the team.
                              It's quite simple really. You don't become a better player by learning to play 1 on 5. This is a team game. Not the globetrotters. Lots of 1on1 players out there that want to do it all themselves, and when you put them on NCAA teams or the NBA, things fall apart.



                              A good point guard finds the open man, a rookie will quickly learn that in order to get shots, he needs to get into those feeding positions. Conversely, you could be finding open looks as a rookie, and your poor point guard is not recognizing your effort and you learn to play on your own, instead of like a team player. (this will hinder your development when you play for a quality team that moves the ball)


                              You can never learn this game shooting the ball at the playground. You really need a good play maker, and to be in a 5 on 5 environment, where roles are established.



                              So the idea that you can learn good basketball skills, with a poor quarterback, is not something I will ever agree to.

                              EDIT: BTW, just to add. This game is about ease. The simple play is the correct play. An easy look that gets you a basket uncontested, is the PERFECT play. This is what each team aspires too. Don't let easy baskets fool you into thinking that nothing got learned on that play. What got learnt is how to DESTROY A DEFENSE, so that they could not even contest it.
                              Last edited by BasketballCrush; Fri Dec 28, 2012, 02:57 PM.

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                              • #30
                                The Coach wrote: View Post
                                Great post Matt. Always impressed with your ability to use reason when so many rely on emotions to argue their point. I do have a couple counters, more for arguments sake than anything else:



                                - It's not about whether or not Lowry helps develop our young guys, time and playing (as you point out) go a long way to do that (not to mention coaching and their own practice regiment)... however, you can't dismiss the fact that a great ball distributor (like a Nash) makes everybody on the floor better. ED, TR and DD will develop with whoever they play with based on other factors, but the point guard can surely speed that rate up. (side note - so does the confidence that comes with winning)
                                - As well, Casey has been impressed with Calderon's mentorship of TRoss... which may have nothing to do with how many minutes they play together. Could it be that Calderon's attitude (said he has recently decided to make this his team) has improved since he has been starter? Could it be that Lowry's abrasive attitude and the "keys to the franchise" put Calderon in a place where he wasn't feeling comfortable leading?



                                - I beleive the Raps are 7-7 with Calderon starting and 2-13 with Lowry starting. Are you saying that none of the 13 games that Lowry started were winnable games?
                                - Other factors have played major roles in their 7 wins with Calderon at the helm (better coaching for one) but you can't dismiss the fact that the team HAS come together under Calderon (for whatever reason)



                                - But it is just coincidence that Lowry has been out?
                                - Again I totally disagree with the myth that "Lowry's absence is why the team is winning"... it is most definitely multi-factoral (as you mention later); however, 'Barg's absence is why the team is winning' is also not the whole story. Have the Raps never won with Bargs? (sidenote - #tradebargnani)



                                We will see soon enough how much these other factors play into the team's success, or if Lowry's approach is not a match with this group of guys.

                                Lets hope Lowry adds to the teams improvement and we can start winning against some of the top teams as well... Go Raps!
                                Booom! There it is. I might be totally wrong and we will see soon enough.

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