Jonas Valanciunas: Expectations VS Results

[connected]

I know he's only played 28 games but I'm curious to hears peoples thoughts.

Stats:

PPG RPG AST FG% FT% STLS BLKS
7.8 5.2 1.1 52.4 70.3 0.3 1.1

How is he playing compared to how you thought he would play? (honestly haha - we should check Everything Valanciunas for predictions)

In his 28 games whose style did you see most in him? (Noah, Asik, Chandler, Gasol)?

How do you see his campaign vs other young Cs (Drummond, Leonard, Zeller, Bismack, Kanter, Vucevic) and where do you see him ranking against them going forward?


Personally I've been impressed by his play so far. He's shown a strong bball IQ (probably due playing professional ball in Europe for a few years already). Having said that he seems more raw than I expected it's more energy and effort then natural talent (ie Anthony Davis) that has established his play. He is not as strong or athletic as Drummond but if he can get his FT% higher he could be one of the few Cs in the league where you could keep him in during crunch time and feed him the ball without worrying about 'hack-a-shaq' tactics.

[Matt52]

8/6 was my projection. I am disappointed in FG% and in FT%.

I think Noah would be the fairest comparison but Noah as a rookie was just 3 months shy of his 23rd birthday.

Only C with greater upside listed, in my opinion, is Drummond.

[omgsomuchpotential]

I think he's been okay-ish so far. He's much more inconsistent than I expected before the season has started though. He had some good games (like a double-double debut or the 22/8 game against the Spurs) and he had some really shitty ones too. I think this is mostly due to lack of strength and a major culture change though, and not due to effort or talent.

I agree with Matt that the only one with a higher ceiling in that list is Drummond. Jonas has a chance of becoming one of the few elite NBA centers of the future.

[hateslosing]

Stats wise, he's met expectations for me. I am surprised by how much offense he has, he's made some jumpers and has had a couple nice hooks. He was advertised as just a roller but has shown potential as a post player. Defensively he's been as good as you can expect a Euro big to be in his first year in the NBA. I think it's a little early to say what his style is, Noah is good I guess, but I think he'll be better offensively. He needs to put on a lot of weight, but I think that he has more potential as a two way player than any of the other young centers listed.

[Soft Euro]

If we're going to check predictions, here were mine:

That's getting close to what I would guess he'll average per 36 in his rookie year. A little less points of course. I'd say about 12-14 pts, close to 10 rebounds, 1,5 blocks, 0,5 steals, 1,5 turnovers. If they are going to let him play in the post I'll up the turnovers to 3,5 turnovers a game... All per 36 of course

Per 36 he's averaging 12,6 points, 8,4 rebounds, 1,8 blocks, 0,5 steals and 2,1 turnovers.

I am not sure Drummond has more upside; his ft% is around 40%; he needs to get that up to be an effective player or hack-a-Drummond is going to be his downfall and he'll have games where he'll shoot over 40 freethrows. I expect Valanciunas to get his percentage up in the 80's and to develop a post game. If he does he will be incredibly difficult to play against.

[BasketballCrush]

He has been great for a Rookie. Defense is going to take time, but it always does for big guys.



Lebron James was a quarter of himself in his first year, some even questioned the hype half way through that season and he was as full proof a talent as they ever get.


Very happy with what I have seen from Val thus far. I just hope he keeps improving.

[Craiger]

If we're going to check predictions, here were mine:



Per 36 he's averaging 12,6 points, 8,4 rebounds, 1,8 blocks, 0,5 steals and 2,1 turnovers.

I am not sure Drummond has more upside; his ft% is around 40%; he needs to get that up to be an effective player or hack-a-Drummond is going to be his downfall and he'll have games where he'll shoot over 40 freethrows. I expect Valanciunas to get his percentage up in the 80's and to develop a post game. If he does he will be incredibly difficult to play against.

Drummond is averaging 13 pts - 13 reb - 1.6 stls - 2.7 blks - 1.6 tov on just shy of 60% from the floor. On a per 36 statistical basis that blows Val out of the water. He is effective despite his poor FT shooting, and as we've seen all over the league for decades, hack a player comes with its own set of consequences and hasn't kept others from being superstars.

[BasketballCrush]

Drummond is not a good comparison, he has an NBA ready body. I would use Bosh as he had to face the same sort of challenges.


In his rookie year bosh looked like this:

11.5 ppg, 7.4 rb, 1 ast, 1.4 blk, 2.9 fouls, 1.4 TO

Once you adjust Val's stats for the same minutes as Bosh, you get the following numbers for Val.

(adjusted to 33.3 minutes)
11.6 ppg, 7.9 rb, 1.6 ast, 1.7 blk, 4.3 fouls, 1.9 TO


If he becomes close to the talent Bosh was, this draft was a slam dunk.

EDIT: forgot to mention that Val's FG% is 7% higher than Bosh's, and the best part of Bosh was his efficiency.

[Soft Euro]

Drummond is averaging 13 pts - 13 reb - 1.6 stls - 2.7 blks - 1.6 tov on just shy of 60% from the floor. On a per 36 statistical basis that blows Val out of the water. He is effective despite his poor FT shooting, and as we've seen all over the league for decades, hack a player comes with its own set of consequences and hasn't kept others from being superstars.

I think Drummond is a rich man's DeAndre Jordan. He's going to be very good. But I don't agree that a ft% of 40 won't be a major problem. He's now shooting a lower ft% on the season than O'Neal and Howard have ever done over a season during their career. There are many differences between Drummond and Valanciunas. Valanciunas has much more potential to develop an allround offensive game going inside and outside. Drummond can become dominant inside, but he can't hit anything if it isn't at the rim. If both stay in the east there is a good chance they'll become the two top centers in the east.

[Craiger]

I think Drummond is a rich man's DeAndre Jordan. He's going to be very good. But I don't agree that a ft% of 40 won't be a major problem. He's now shooting a lower ft% on the season than O'Neal and Howard have ever done over a season during their career. There are many differences between Drummond and Valanciunas. Valanciunas has much more potential to develop an allround offensive game going inside and outside. Drummond can become dominant inside, but he can't hit anything if it isn't at the rim. If both stay in the east there is a good chance they'll become the two top centers in the east.

I'm not saying Drummond will or won't be better than Val. But there is nothing to indicate his poor FT% will drag him down as a player. Less than he could be with a good FT%? Sure.... but Shaq and Dwight could have been more than there were with a better FT% to which would have been just plain scary.

I don't think there is a single player in this draft with a higher ceiling than Drummond. I don't even think Davis has the ceiling Drummond has. Now will he ever reach it? Thats another question.

[kuzzybear]

JV has exceded my expectations. If the Raps continue to share the ball when he gets back , his ppg should jump. For all the work he does on defense , his mates haven't rewarded him with enough touches on offense. Gotta reward the big guys when they run 94 feet after doing something good on the D end.

[white men can't jump]

He hit the wall a bit sooner than I thought he would, but I think he's shown what I expected. There is no part of his game that actually makes me worried. I think his scoring will get better when he gets the strength, reps and confidence to finish what looks like a solid base of different moves. His FT % is slightly low, but I think that has a lot to do with the grind of the NBA and not always having his legs, including playing through injuries, like a sprained ankle. JV has been really tough and not backed down. His effort is always there, and other than some mistakes with the ball, he almost always is trying to do the right thing.

Also Davis is not a good comparison. Davis is clearly a natural PF, at least on offense. Drummond has been impressive, but I still have no clue what to expect in his development. He seems like he's not nearly the knucklehead people feared, but he's still really raw. he may never be more than an at the rim player, but he could be a terror on D and boards, much more htan JV. That said, you look at how even Howard is struggling a bit playing without his usual physical ability, and I'd much rather take a player like JV than Drummond. Once JV hits his prime, I feel like he could sustain it for a long time.

[NoPropsneeded]

If he's as good as or better than bosh I'd be insanely excited for our future.

[enlightenment]

You forgot to add the stats of minutes, which is very important when measuring effectiveness.

at 22.4 minutes a game, JV is doing extraordinarily well for a rookie center. He has shown a polished offensive game, (also very rare for a rook), an intuitive feel for the game, a jumpshot that will only get better, and a blocking presence.

what needs to improve is: bulk, defensive positioning, defensive smarts, post footwork, and the team HAS to start finding him when he rolls to the basket and clears the lane with his quickness

He has all but met my expectations and shown me even more ability than I thought he possessed. I am really excited for is future, and when the team begins looking for him, watch out!!!

[connected]

little bit drunk but we shouldn't sleep on Vucevic([url/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BLhm7auk-k_[/url]) he could be a legitimate contender for top 5 Cs in the next few years

Soft Euro seemed to have a pretty good read on JV pre-season. I don't think we should expect Bosh-esq numbers - from what I remember Bosh had some legitimate spin moves [which he doesn't use now] and a jump shot in his rookie year

but damn hope for better defensive acumen

[Sig]

Greatest part about this guy is his likability

[Miekenstien]

Lebron James was a quarter of himself in his first year, some even questioned the hype half way through that season and he was as full proof a talent as they ever get.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/...6/lebron-james
21pg, 5.5 rbs,5.9 dimes and he was 19 years old. i would say the hype was right and no one questioned or wondered what was coming.

jv has been great this year. i remember last year while we dreamed about him we kept getting his euroleague game stats here and some games were great and others he also had issues. i was one who said 10 and 10. a couple games this year i thought he was kept out of games longer than needed or not put back in when i thought he should have. i actually think his numbers could be marginally better than they are but i am not the coach.

i wasn't expecting a shaq like entrance but i would have loved one. he has been great and with him and ross i would say we have 2 of the best first year players this year.

[BasketballCrush]

RE: Lebron's first year

I don't know, I remember it differently. This was a quarter into the season, I remember having a conversation at work with another basketball aficionado saying he was not all that impressed with LBJ considering the hype he got that year.

Remember him being hot one game, and having a lot of games where he would score 10 points or less on 40 minutes of work, which for a player of his talent is puzzling.

3 here in October to start the season, I am not going to list all the bad games.

http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=231101022
http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=231114002
http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=231105005

but for the most part remember him having a lot of 5/17 nights, with really awful FG% and horrible shot selection, not very efficient at all. He was getting tons of minutes and had control of the ball so the ppg that year never impressed me that much, he really wasn't that good in his first year. Lots of poor decisions, forced shots he really did not come on as a player till much later in the season.

I remember Lebron struggling with how the game was played at the NBA level, maybe it was for a short time, but never the less, I remember that he did. So to me its a good example illustrating that even talent of the caliber of a LeBron James will have a learning curve when entering the league.

[Miekenstien]

RE: Lebron's first year

I don't know, I remember it differently. This was a quarter into the season, I remember having a conversation at work with another basketball aficionado saying he was not all that impressed with LBJ considering the hype he got that year.

Remember him being hot one game, and having a lot of games where he would score 10 points or less on 40 minutes of work, which for a player of his talent is puzzling.

3 here in October to start the season, I am not going to list all the bad games.

http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=231101022
http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=231114002
http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=231105005

but for the most part remember him having a lot of 5/17 nights, with really awful FG% and horrible shot selection, not very efficient at all. He was getting tons of minutes and had control of the ball so the ppg that year never impressed me that much, he really wasn't that good in his first year. Lots of poor decisions, forced shots he really did not come on as a player till much later in the season.

I remember Lebron struggling with how the game was played at the NBA level, maybe it was for a short time, but never the less, I remember that he did. So to me its a good example illustrating that even talent of the caliber of a LeBron James will have a learning curve when entering the league.

haha. i remember ricky davis. funny seeing his stat lines. not saying you don't remember what you remember but even in these games his assists rebounding steals and blocks make up for his shooting woes.

sorry to do this but do you guys remember when ricky davis tried to get his triple double by shooting at his own net. haha what a bonehead.

man is jv ever coming along nicely(ties in with thread)haha

[Miekenstien]

jv ross or davis rivers now?

still davis for me but how far ahead of rivers ross is, is making this a tougher and tougher call. come on jv lets get a couple rookie of the month awards to end the year.