Chisholm sums up reality of any Rudy Gay deal

[Mediumcore]

It's off topic, but if Toronto could somehow get Bledsoe from the Clippers I'd be beyond happy. He looks like he could be next years version of what James Harden was to this year and I've been a fan of his game since he returned from injury last season. I realize we have Lowry for another season, and they have similar games, but Bledsoe is on another level and is going to break out in a starting role next season.

[Matt52]

It's off topic, but if Toronto could somehow get Bledsoe from the Clippers I'd be beyond happy. He looks like he could be next years version of what James Harden was to this year and I've been a fan of his game since he returned from injury last season. I realize we have Lowry for another season, and they have similar games, but Bledsoe is on another level and is going to break out in a starting role next season.

If we are talking PG's, I like Trey Burke at Michigan..... now we are really off topic.

[white men can't jump]

(Facepalm)

So Gay who has an individual defensive rating of 99 (which is like awesome) is a horrible defender because the team is 98.8 (which is like 2nd best in the league) when he is off the floor.

Gotcha.

That mediocre bitch.

I think his point was more that team performance affects individual. While Gay's DRTG might seem high, his team's is actually higher overall and several players on his team are higher. So in his case, it does not necessarily indicate he's a good defender. And I don't think anyone would suggest he is a bad defender. I think the stat suggests what is pretty much agreed on: he takes nights off on D.

[Raptor_11]

I think his point was more that team performance affects individual. While Gay's DRTG might seem high, his team's is actually higher overall and several players on his team are higher. So in his case, it does not necessarily indicate he's a good defender. And I don't think anyone would suggest he is a bad defender. I think the stat suggests what is pretty much agreed on: he takes nights off on D.

How do you come to that conclusion if the stats show he's not a bad defender?

[Matt52]

I think his point was more that team performance affects individual. While Gay's DRTG might seem high, his team's is actually higher overall and several players on his team are higher. So in his case, it does not necessarily indicate he's a good defender. And I don't think anyone would suggest he is a bad defender. I think the stat suggests what is pretty much agreed on: he takes nights off on D.

It has been suggested and emphatically stated by many in this thread.

golden's reply was very clear in showing cherry picking of stats while also shooting his argument regarding Gay in both feet.

Your reply is interesting. Gay has a tremendous defensive - better than LBJ in fact. Yet because his team's is better (by 0.2) and several players on the team have a better rating this is an attempt to discredit his defensive abilities. He plays 37mpg on the 2nd best defensive team in the NBA.

Your last sentence is a reach and a generalization of your opinion. That is cool though because it is your opinion after all. It is a shame the stats do not agree.

There have been lots of comparisons of DD's and Gay's offensive stats. Why has no one posted the other side of the ball comparison?

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

I think his point was more that team performance affects individual. While Gay's DRTG might seem high, his team's is actually higher overall and several players on his team are higher. So in his case, it does not necessarily indicate he's a good defender. And I don't think anyone would suggest he is a bad defender. I think the stat suggests what is pretty much agreed on: he takes nights off on D.

So youre saying that Gay is perceived as a good defender because their team defense is good? youre saying that because his teammates are above average defenders, they pull his defense and makes him "good"?

The spurs are 4th in the NBA in defensive rating. The 5 players who play the most minutes per game have a defensive rating of 95, 98, 100, 103 and 105. Guess who owns the 105? Parker. Labeled as one of the worst defenders in the league. No matter how good the Spurs defense is, they cant pull up Parker's rating. He's only broken the 100 barrier once in his whole career, yet the Spurs defense is always in the top 10.

Every player has a night off, even the best of em. Gay does too. Just not too often as youre suggesting.

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

I would rather over pay for Josh Smith than to Overpay for Rudy Gay and give up half our talent (which we would likely need to do)!!

My concerns with Josh Smith: cant create own shot, not very good perimeter player, below average 3 pt shooter, 50% FT shooter and usually disappears during the 4th quarter. His pts, rebs and asts are not far off from Gay. If i'm paying a guy max money, id want that guy to be able to carry the team on his shoulders during crunch time. And im sure you know how many crucial plays Gay has been a part of throughout his career.

[Matt52]

My concerns with Josh Smith: cant create own shot, not very good perimeter player, below average 3 pt shooter, 50% FT shooter and usually disappears during the 4th quarter. His pts, rebs and asts are not far off from Gay. If i'm paying a guy max money, id want that guy to be able to carry the team on his shoulders during crunch time. And im sure you know how many crucial plays Gay has been a part of throughout his career.

Not to mention Smith is a PF who can play SF in limited minutes. So what happens to ED/Amir?

[Craiger]

Defense is perhaps the hardest part of basketball to rate at an individual level and I'm not sure there is, as of yet anyways, a completely accurate way of rating or comparing players. But that doesn't mean we can't get a good idea of roughly how good or bad a player is.

So considering an 'average' defense rating (pts given up per 100 possessions with said player on the floor) is approx 105.

Rudy Gay drtg = 100

Thats significantly higher than average, and if we eliminate the players on Memphis with almost no statistical value (due to minutes - Haddadi, Wroten, Selby) would place him 5th on the team (tied with Mike Conley).

Now a players defense rating is absolutely impacted by their teammates (both positively and negatively), so lets take a simple look at the difference between Gay on and off the court (pts given up on/off court per 100 possessions)

Rudy Gay pts given up on/off per 100 possessions = -2.3

Which means that Memphis has so far been a better defensive team with Gay on the floor than off and at the very least its saying that he is not making his team worse.

So if we simply consider that Gay's defensive stats indicate that he is:

1) significantly better than average defender
2)while being a net positive defender on the floor compared to off
3)while playing on the 2nd best defensive team in the league

I couldn't possible picture anyway to consider him anything less than, conservatively, an average defender. Using a non-conservative perspective one could easily argue the stats say he is very good or near elite.

[bobbybutler]

Production by Position

Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production

DeMar DeRozan- http://www.82games.com/1213/12TOR5.HTM
SG- 14.6 PER, 19.5pts, 53.7 eFG%, 5.4 REB, 3.3 TO, 5.0 FTA
SF- 13.1 PER. 16.8pts, 40.1 eFG%, 9.5 REB, 1.3 TO, 5.0 FTA

M.Pietrus- http://www.82games.com/1213/12TOR6.HTM
SF- 12.1 PER, 14.2pts, 51.9 eFG%, 7.3 REB, 2.6 TO, 2.9 FTA

R.Gay- http://www.82games.com/1213/12MEM8.HTM
SF- 12.9 PER, 18.5pts, 50.9 eFG%, 6.6 REB, 3.0 TO, 2.9 FTA

T.Allen- http://www.82games.com/1213/12MEM6.HTM
SG- 12.6 PER, 15.6pts, 48.1 eFG%, 4.7 REB, 3.2 TO, 3.6 FTA

P.George- http://www.82games.com/1213/12IND7.HTM
SG- 11.7 PER, 18.5pts, 45.3 eFG%, 4.3 REB, 2.4 TO, 3.7 FTA
SF_ 10.6 PER, 15.1pts, 38.2 eFG%, 6.5 REB, 2.5 TO, 4.3 FTA

L.Stephenson- http://www.82games.com/1213/12IND5.HTM
SG- 13.7 PER, 20pts, 50.2 eFG%, 5.2 REB, 2.9 TO, 2.9 FTA

D.Gallinari- http://www.82games.com/1213/12DEN9.HTM
SF- 11.4 PER, 18.1pts, 49.3 eFG%, 5.8 REB, 2.0 TO, 2.6 FTA

A.Iguodala- http://www.82games.com/1213/12DEN5.HTM
SG- 11.6 PER, 19.2pts, 46.4 eFG%, 4.7 REB, 2.6 TO, 3.2 FTA
SF- 14.0 PER, 18.8pts, 50.9 eFG%, 8.5 REB, 1.6 TO, 4.0 FTA

N.Batum- http://www.82games.com/1213/12POR8.HTM
SF- 12.5 PER, 16.7pts, 50.3 eFG%, 7.4 REB, 3.0 TO, 3.0 FTA

W.Matthews- http://www.82games.com/1213/12POR6.HTM
SG- 15.6 PER, 21.1pts, 50.3 eFG%, 6.5 REB, 2.8 TO, 4.8 FTA

[white men can't jump]

Defense is perhaps the hardest part of basketball to rate at an individual level and I'm not sure there is, as of yet anyways, a completely accurate way of rating or comparing players. But that doesn't mean we can't get a good idea of roughly how good or bad a player is.

So considering an 'average' defense rating (pts given up per 100 possessions with said player on the floor) is approx 105.

Rudy Gay drtg = 100

Thats significantly higher than average, and if we eliminate the players on Memphis with almost no statistical value (due to minutes - Haddadi, Wroten, Selby) would place him 5th on the team (tied with Mike Conley).

Now a players defense rating is absolutely impacted by their teammates (both positively and negatively), so lets take a simple look at the difference between Gay on and off the court (pts given up on/off court per 100 possessions)

Rudy Gay pts given up on/off per 100 possessions = -2.3

Which means that Memphis has so far been a better defensive team with Gay on the floor than off and at the very least its saying that he is not making his team worse.

So if we simply consider that Gay's defensive stats indicate that he is:

1) significantly better than average defender
2)while being a net positive defender on the floor compared to off
3)while playing on the 2nd best defensive team in the league

I couldn't possible picture anyway to consider him anything less than, conservatively, an average defender. Using a non-conservative perspective one could easily argue the stats say he is very good or near elite.

Ugh, again, this is just because you're looking at stats the way you want to see them (which I am too).
1) Significanlty better than average defender??? Judging on his DRTG. I CHALLENGE ANYONE ON THIS SITE TO PROVE TO ME THAT RUDY GAY IS A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER DEFENDER THAN LEBRON JAMES BECAUSE OF THEIR RESPECTIVE INDIVIDUAL DRTG'S. You can't, and if you tried, you'd be wrong, but using stats you could make the argument....
2) He plays really high minutes on a good team. If Rudy Gay were on Washington with exactly the same individual effort, his team would clearly give up more points when he's on the floor through little fault of his own.
3) He is on the 2nd best defensive team in the league....ok, well that is true and clearly does relate to his own D, but again, it's hard to measure his role in there, especially when you consider great players at every other position on the floor. And if we're going back to the LEBRON ridiculous comparison. LeBron's defensive rating is 'worse', but he has the best on his team's. In my mind this matches the eye-test where you can tell LeBron is the catalyst for his team's D. In my mind the same thing is true of Memphis. Gay is not their catalyst, and with them it may seem less clear, but Gasol and Allen have the best DRTG's, and if I had to pick one or two players who lead their effort every night, it would be them.

I don't know. I suppose the most likely statement I can make about Rudy's D is it's likely to fit into whatever system he's put, and that he's solid (maybe taking nights or plays off), but hardly a leader or catalyst, and hard to tell if he's a stopper at all because of Tony Allen's presence. All this just to say I don't see Rudy Gay necessarily improving (or worsening) our D if he comes over in a trade, even if he offers some tools we have been lacking.

Stats lie plenty people, and especially when you don't have a straightforward measurement. I think you could say the same about the counterpart production as well. Look at Demar. SG's seem to do better against him. You gotta figure part of that is that when he is getting beat, Fields or Alan switch to guard the SG and Demar will take the lesser threat at SF. Yes there are obvious aspects of Demar's D that make that true, such as he's still not great at chasing guys through screens and gets caught ball-staring sometimes. But the stat might suggest that Demar is better at guarding SFs than SGs, when it probably just suggests some time he spends at SF is usually against a worse player, which after years of watching the team play, I'd say holds pretty true.

[white men can't jump]

UPdate: From good ol' Doug Smith, the king of not taking an opinion, but at least has decent insider sources.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/basket...-rapidly-smith

Looks like Jose, Ross and one young big - seems they may be asking for JV (though I'm sure they would consider Ed) - and once again I say that price is too high. Two players who can be contributors on the team for 4-7 years easy for a guy who might not be worth keeping after 3. All the rumors seem to suggest Memphis is looking to upgrade, not just cut cost, which suggests that like the Lakers, they want 2 or 3 immediately useful assets.

[Raptor_11]

You'd think they would want Demar instead of Ross. Looks like a third team will have to be involved for anything to happen

[white men can't jump]

You'd think they would want Demar instead of Ross. Looks like a third team will have to be involved for anything to happen

No, they don't want Demar's contract and the trade kicker that comes with it. While Demar is more of a known factor than Ross, they need to significantly shed salary. Basically almost all of Gay's contract has to come off, so any deal will need an expiring contract like Jose, and primarily young, cheap players.

[white men can't jump]

After hearing Washington rumors, that would seem to make sense to me. Washington is totally messed up, and they probably don't know what to do so they're considering a move like this. Apparently the cost might start at Bradley Beal, which isn't too surprising.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

UPdate: From good ol' Doug Smith, the king of not taking an opinion, but at least has decent insider sources.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/basket...-rapidly-smith

Looks like Jose, Ross and one young big - seems they may be asking for JV (though I'm sure they would consider Ed) - and once again I say that price is too high. Two players who can be contributors on the team for 4-7 years easy for a guy who might not be worth keeping after 3. All the rumors seem to suggest Memphis is looking to upgrade, not just cut cost, which suggests that like the Lakers, they want 2 or 3 immediately useful assets.

I would be fine giving up Calderon & DeRozan & Davis for Gay (and likely a PG, such as Selby).

2012-2013 - Memphis would save about $1M in salary this year, barring other subsequent trades
2013-2014 - Memphis would save about $6.2M
2014-2015 - Memphis would save about $6.5M ($10.9M if Davis' $4.4M Qualifying Offer isn't picked up)

[Rapstor4Life]

Memphis is asking for way too much... Calderon Ross and Ed? WTF?

[white men can't jump]

Memphis is asking for way too much... Calderon Ross and Ed? WTF?

This is clearly part of the reason I'm so opposed to getting Gay. Those who seem to be for it are under the impression he's a franchise-calibre player or something....If he were, Memphis wouldn't be looking at what they can get for him. Again, Memphis holds all the chips here...It's not like Gay demanded a trade and is playing shitty in the meantime. Memphis will absolutely make sure they are winners in any trade.
Sidenote: rumor is in Washington talks, the package might have to include Bradley Beal...Basically Memphis is trying to get a player they think can replace/surpass Gay within a year or two, as well as one or two pieces that can not only help, but provide cap relief.

According to a person with knowledge of those conversations, Gay is likely to remain a Grizzly through the end of this season. The message to Gay at the moment is that if he is dealt by the league's Feb. 21 trade deadline, then the Griz will have been offered a no-brainer scenario.

For example, the Griz have entertained the Washington Wizards' offer for Gay. The crux of that exchange would have the Griz receiving rookie shooting guard Bradley Beal in a larger package. The proposals for Randolph have been even weaker.

None of the potential deals has merit because they aren't believed to be strong enough to keep the Griz on their current pace.

From Memphis Commercial-Appeal
http://www.commercialappeal.com/news...s-mum-as-blow/

[white men can't jump]

Also, people keep bringing up Demar. Has anyone actually read a single rumor that involved Demar? I have not seen any anywhere. It's fine if that's just your preference over giving up Ross, but from what I've read the only players who seem to be in that Memphis scenario with some certainty are Jose + 2 of Ed, Ross and JV.

[connected]

If the rumours about Cavs saving money for Lebron for the 2014 season are true then we can count the cavs out of the Gay sweepstakes