Revisited: Blow it up..... Seriously?? (Part 2)

[Matt52]

I think we can all agree that the Milwaukee game didn't (or shouldn't) change the belief that Raptors still need more talent. As for what it solidified more (for me), that would be the Raptors not making the play-offs this season.



We have a somewhat different philosophy on the Jose vs Kyle debate.

What exactly is a pure PG? That term gets bandied about, the implication being it's a pass first PG. To me, a pure PG is not just a good passer, but a player who QB's the team. Someone who leads - someone who develops the flow and speed to a game.

And what does "better player" mean? Should MVP be the best player, or the most valuable player to his team. Lowry might be the best player, but he's not the most valuable player.

Kyle is a SG in a PG body - albeit, a shorter body (I have doubts he's 6.0 feet tall). Even then, he's still not that great relative to a Shooting Guard. The simple fact is, Kyle's undersized at any position. When he gets into the paint area, his size affects his court vision and passing abilities. To me, Jose has him there.

Then there's his defensive capabilities. Personally, I think people's opinions are over-inflated when it comes to Lowry's defensive capabilities. To me, Kyle gambles too much. And his size really affects him when a mismatch occurs.

Some Kyle Lowry Stats (relative to top PG's)

The GOOD stats:
1) eff. - 3rd for Point Guards
2) F/Ta - 3rd
3) Rebounds - 3rd overall, but down to 37th in January - albeit with reduced playing time.

The NOT-SO-GOOD stats:
1) fg% - 22nd amongst PG (with 25+ minutes)
3) 3pt % - 16th (w/25+ min)
4) Assists - 20th @ 6.0 apg.

Fact is, Lowry's better off the Bench (or maybe it's the "Calderon is winning" effect). His Assists off the Bench - 6.4 apg (23.5 min) ... As a Starter - 5.7 apg (31.1 min).

Jose Stats as a Starter (vs Lowry as a Starter)
1) Minutes - Jose 32.9 mpg (Kyle 31.1 mpg)
2) fg% - .489 (.410)
3) 3pt % - .440 (.362)
4) Assists - 10.2 apg (5.7 apg)
5) Turnovers - 1.8 (2.6)
6) Rebounds - 3.3 (5.7)
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Stats aside, Kyle Lowry in no way compares to Jose when it comes to Quarter Backing the team. Kyle may get it some day, but for this Raptor team - now - he's not helping. Except when he comes off the Bench - more Assists (and in less minutes), better fg%, and better 3pt%. If I didn't know better, I'd say KL is more effective in a back-up role. Question is ... can his EGO accept this?

Fact, eh? Lowry's assist off the bench have nothing to do with him changing his style of play as his teammates and coach have asked him to do? Please. People want the guy to conform which he has done and are then tear a strip off him for not being who he was and is. The stats you presented are without context (or excuses, for lack of a better term): Casey has changed his entire approach to the game since December 10th and Lowry's injury; Lowry originally came back from injury too soon and was not healthy; the entire focus of the team shifted from Bargnani/Lowry to a team centered approach.

Your stats are ridiculous and are slightly biased to your argument... which is cool but they hardly make anything fact. Despite Lowry's low shooting percentage his true shooting percentage is just 1.6% less than Calderon's. The stats you have presented of Lowry averaging 6.5 ast in 23.5 mins are all as a backup and since his return he has not had a chance to start - per 36 mins that is 10 assists per game. The whole team concept and focus changes and Lowry shows he can adapt to the change yet you insist on making your case with apples to oranges comparisons? No one - myself included - has defended Lowry's style of play upon return from injury the first go round.

Here is a crazy thought as Lowry is ripped, lets look at Jose's stats coming off the bench:
22.0 mins, 8.1 pts, .398 fg%, 1.3rebs, 4.2 assists, 0.5 stl, 1.5to
All this talk of Jose's professionalism and how great he is hardly backed up by his play off the bench.

Here is a crazier thought, lets look at Jose's record leading the Raptors the last 5 years.... nevermind.

The fact here truly is Lowry has hardly been given a shot to lead this team with the turnaround and re-shifted focus of the coaching staff despite his conformity to the direction of the team. Any comparisons pre- and post- December 10th is, for lack of a better term, horseshit because this is not the same team.

As I've stated in previous posts, getting that elusive wing requires trading for it. The draft is out - for now. Free Agency is out as well (Canada eh!). That leaves a trade.

Bargnani is out ... thanks to angry fans (and media needing a good story), as well as your #tradeBargnani extravanganza. I have a question, and this is a analogy-type question, relative to buying a home. When you're touring the home, and the Owner is there, do you shout out .... I LOVE THIS F##KING HOUSE - IT'S EXACTLY WHAT I'VE BEEN LOOKING FOR.... TOO BAD IT HAS THE PROJECTS ON ONE SIDE, A NUCLEAR WASTE DUMP ON THE OTHER, AND PLANES LANDING AND DEPARTING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FROM THE AIRPORT 2KM DOWN THE ROAD.... And then wonder why you have a poor bargaining position.

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I fixed your quote.

I am truly flattered you think #tradeBargnani has any pull with not only the Raptors brass but any (or all) of the other 29 NBA teams. Read some message boards of other teams: Bargnani's flaws are the worst kept secret in the NBA among fans. I think the GM's have and can figure it out too. But again, thanks.

Continuing on with tradeable assets, I think we can agree that Jonas is out. Probably Ross as well - too soon to guage - he could be a Star (or close equivalent). Demar is an obligation that pushes the limits. Amir is too banged up.

That leaves Kyle Lowry - who I believe is still a good player, just not right for the Raptors. That's assuming he has no interest in being a Back-up PG. Of course you could always promote him with #KyleLowryistheBest. I'd help.

Then there is Ed Davis. Would you be willing to move Ed for an equivalent talent in the SF mold? Personally, I think Ed returns us the most - albeit, even with Andrea gone, Raps will still need a Starting PF. Ed is just not big enough, or strong enough.

Add Lowry into that (Ed) trade mix, and we should be able to get some serious talent back. Possibly a good SF (or upcoming one), to go along with a PG that Jose can mentor. Someone who JC can take a Bench role to ... DOWN THE ROAD ... for when our talent improves - new and existing.

I'm all for making the Raptors better. But before you go and trade Lowry and anoint Jose the short term starter and long term mentor, did you consider Jose is an unrestricted free agent who has made it well known he'd like to play in a warmer climate, compete for a championship, and has done jack shit for the Raptors winning percentage over the last 5 years? Jose's true professionalism is a double-edged sword: once his contract is up, so are his obligations.

On another note, I still agree with your previous position about Bargnani, that someone will (or may) get that Star quality out of him, or at least close to this level. I know you and others keep harping about 7 years, but to me, it was 5 years, as Andrea was still our best player last year.

http://www.82games.com/1112/1112TOR.HTM

This year ... Andrea ... along with everyone else - played like shit. I'm curious to know how he'd do when he gets back - for whatever role that should be. Lowry has adapted - for the most part. If KL can - and he never did before - why can't AB. The big Italian is playing for the Coach who pulled it out of him last season. Raptors just have to stop calling him a Franchise type, and take away the bizarre focus we've had on him.

The reason why I like him as a player - albeit I get frustrated too - is because he has the most talent on this team. Key word is "talent". For me, talent isn't jumping at the opportunity to come to Toronto Canada, no matter how much we talk about "sucking" being the reason. It never was with the earlier Vince, nor with Bosh (in the good years).


The bottom line is ... we're not going anywhere right now. This season should be about developing Jonas & Ross, taking certain players to another level, and integrating everyone into a system that can be built onto. I know this is probably point-less, but if AB can find his groove (under Casey) and become a PART (and not the focus) to this team, why jettison him for what will probably be a similar contract that has no upside ... because with all this vitrol being shared out there, what team would do such a thing - Give us more then what you and others think he's worth.

The irony to all this, is that those who hate Andrea, and want to see him go - SO BADLY ... ... they are the same ones contributing to his staying here - for reasons explained above.

Previous position? Not sure when I changed. Still think Bargnani will thrive in an environment where he is not the main guy and has a cast of players that play to his weaknesses.

Best player based on those stats? How about these stats:
http://www.thenbageek.com/players/compare?player_ids[]=314&season=2011&utf8=%E2%9C%93 (negative win share)

Why can't AB adapt if Lowry did? Hmmmm, 7 f*cking seasons versus 15 games - and Lowry is still being ripped a new one? Seriously, stop the nut hugging and excuses. 7 SEASONS!


The true irony I find is the exact same arguments and excuses are being made for Bargnani after all this time.

[RapthoseLeafs]

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I voted to accelerate the plan, although not necessarily towards Gay. I'm still not sure Rudy is a wise move. He certainly is enticing. A guy like Gay would instantly change our weakest spot. However, if Lowry doesn't prove his mettle, the weak spot would just be changing places.

The time to make moves (for next season), should be starting now. Or somewhere before the trade deadline. With the tax money issue motivating teams, and large salaries attached to certain talented players, wealthy teams can take advantage. Or more appropriately, Owners with cash can afford a little more tax. Which for the Raptors, these new Bosses seem more inclined to partake.

The Jays are in, and the hockey team - after wiping the slate - will attract a greater financial attention. Not so much because of CBA restrictions, but certainly anywhere else they can be better. These new Bosses need material for their business, so whatever it takes - even if they're loss leaders. Putting asses in the seats is important, but media content brings a new dimension to the picture.

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A Gay trade for Jose & Ed might bring some surprises to both sides. That could mean Bayless coming back - although the trade machine says I need another player (with enough Toronto salary). Fields brings that, and he is a SF. As well, Grizzlies are short in quality (now) Bench Bigs with offensive skills, so Ed should work perfect.

For the Grizzlies, Jose might even find himself on the Starting sguad - as his PG numbers are much better then Conley, and his deficiencies would more then be compensated by Gasol, Randolph, and Allen. I'd even go so far as to say the Offensive numbers for these 3 players would improve under JC.

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Raps will still need another PF, but that's a task for the summer. A Starting line-up with a new Lowry, a 2nd option Demar (better for him), a real (and more experienced) Centre, plus 1st Option Rudy - who has something to prove - has the chance to be a 2nd Round Play-off team next season. And if Mr. Enigma was ever to find his way, who knows how far this team could go. But ... if he "the Smitch Talent" should not come to fruition, the Raptors should have enough "potential" such that an up and coming PF would be enticed to jump over the Canadian barrier. And prove me wrong.

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[RapthoseLeafs]

Fact, eh? .....

Your stats are ridiculous and are slightly biased to your argument... .....

The stats you have presented of Lowry averaging 6.5 ast in 23.5 mins are all as a backup and since his return he has not had a chance to start - per 36 mins that is 10 assists per game. The whole team concept and focus changes and Lowry shows he can adapt to the change yet you insist on making your case with apples to oranges comparisons? No one - myself included - has defended Lowry's style of play upon return from injury the first go round.

Lowry's stats are - for the most part - against Bench opponents. He has also been working with a Bench - that since mid-December - is one of the top Benches in the League (Milwaukee game excluded).

Your stats are ridiculous and are slightly biased to your argument... which is cool but they hardly make anything fact.

Stat analysis will always be subjective. If I inferred them as a solitary fact, then I take that back. For the record, most analysts adjust for facts, to fit the argument.

Here is a crazy thought as Lowry is ripped .....

Don't get me wrong. Even though I think Kyle needs to adapt (it is his 3rd Groundhog Day), I still believe he is talented. And well worth a 12 - 14th pick in the upcoming draft. But I don't think he's the guy for this next phase of the Raptors.

That being said ... he could be. Actually, I think he has potential to be even better (then his current persona), if he learned to use his strength, to create open space, and then PASS the ball. He could easily get that 10 apg that you suggested was possible.

Should Jose move on, and a guy like Gay arrives (prior to the deadline), the worst that could happen is we ride out the season, and move KL next summer. Reboot with a core of talented players.

The fact here truly is Lowry has hardly been given a shot to lead this team with the turnaround and re-shifted focus of the coaching staff despite his conformity to the direction of the team. Any comparisons pre- and post- December 10th is, for lack of a better term, horseshit because this is not the same team.

I don't agree with the comparison synopsis, but for the part "Lowry has hardly been given a shot to lead this team" ... you may be right. And he may adapt.

I fixed your quote.
I am truly flattered you think #tradeBargnani has any pull with not only the Raptors brass but any (or all) of the other 29 NBA teams.

I think you don't give yourself enough credit. Not to suggest Bryan is listening - someone is - but for some, these Blogs are a way to better learn the game. Consider that for why I read your comments. These Blogs also provide a little fun .... maybe throw in a little Bull$hit, just because we can.

I'm all for making the Raptors better. But before you go and trade Lowry and anoint Jose the short term starter and long term mentor, did you consider Jose is an unrestricted free agent who has made it well known he'd like to play in a warmer climate, compete for a championship, and has done jack shit for the Raptors winning percentage over the last 5 years?

Yes.
We can lose Jose, and get nothing back. Except 10.6 million.
We do get something for Lowry.

Why would Calderon sign?
Should he return, it will be as a Starter. Nothing less. A Starter for the only team he has come to know. In 8 NBA seasons. Does Jose want to go to a Winner?

He should talk to Nash, and ask him what warm and fuzzy feels like.

Never-the-less, if Jose walks for free .... Raps get something for Lowry, and 10.6 million available to sign someone better. Difficult to see the negatives.

Previous position? Not sure when I changed. Still think Bargnani will thrive in an environment where he is not the main guy and has a cast of players that play to his weaknesses.

Why can't AB adapt if Lowry did? Hmmmm, 7 f*cking seasons versus 15 games - and Lowry is still being ripped a new one?

One minute you extoll his virtues ... then dismiss the formula that had success, because it fell within an unforgiveable time period. If he goes, then so be it.

From my perspective, you have to look at last season, where - despite the proverbial 10 game recovery phase - Bargs was still the best player (or close enough to debate it). That said, I have to admit I started to change my thoughts on AB's future with this club - as this season progressed. Sometimes divorce is the better option.

Then I heard Smitch on a radio interview. It was not pretty. You could tell there was some anger there. But despite all the negative words, Smitch continued to repeat that he genuinely believed - based on talent - that Andrea was the best choice. That of course factored in Brandon Roy, and the knees that today have become his undoing. If not for that, Raps were picking Roy.

As for Andrea, it goes beyond all the emotion. More a logical business plan, that gives reason for him. One that is strictly all about the numbers. Not wins and losses, although essentially it does come down to them. More so about odds. Like what are the odds Andrea makes it to the All-Star game (or is in the running), versus an All-Star actually coming here. That of course doesn't preclude Demar, or Jonas making the big game. I expect an All-Star moment at some point in their careers. Ross has potential. Kyle has too much competition.

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Despite my opposition to Andrea being amnestied this summer, the fall-back position of his presense on this team, is the 12 million dollar amensty value in 2014. If I'm not mistaken, that's expected to be a good Free Agency year - with some serious names possible. That 12 mil wipe-out could also provide flexibility in taking back salary (for a price, of course). Especially with teams like LA, NY, or BK .... looking to clear space to acquire one of those possible Stars.



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[Matt52]

Lowry's stats are - for the most part - against Bench opponents. He has also been working with a Bench - that since mid-December - is one of the top Benches in the League (Milwaukee game excluded).

Interesting that Jose was unable to get the same production from the bench and Jose's own stats were abysmal.

Stat analysis will always be subjective. If I inferred them as a solitary fact, then I take that back. For the record, most analysts adjust for facts, to fit the argument.

Agreed.

Don't get me wrong. Even though I think Kyle needs to adapt (it is his 3rd Groundhog Day), I still believe he is talented. And well worth a 12 - 14th pick in the upcoming draft. But I don't think he's the guy for this next phase of the Raptors.

That being said ... he could be. Actually, I think he has potential to be even better (then his current persona), if he learned to use his strength, to create open space, and then PASS the ball. He could easily get that 10 apg that you suggested was possible.

Should Jose move on, and a guy like Gay arrives (prior to the deadline), the worst that could happen is we ride out the season, and move KL next summer. Reboot with a core of talented players.

Lowry is averaging 10 ast per 36 mins. I didn't suggest he could average 10 assists per game. Just clarifying.

The only way Gay is coming to Toronto before the deadline is if the Raptors throw in 2 of JV, Ross, and ED. I think that is too steep of a price to pay.

I don't agree with the comparison synopsis, but for the part "Lowry has hardly been given a shot to lead this team" ... you may be right. And he may adapt.

I look forward to what happens after February 21.

I think you don't give yourself enough credit. Not to suggest Bryan is listening - someone is - but for some, these Blogs are a way to better learn the game. Consider that for why I read your comments. These Blogs also provide a little fun .... maybe throw in a little Bull$hit, just because we can.

I'm all about the bullsh!t.

Yes.
We can lose Jose, and get nothing back. Except 10.6 million.
We do get something for Lowry.

Why would Calderon sign?
Should he return, it will be as a Starter. Nothing less. A Starter for the only team he has come to know. In 8 NBA seasons. Does Jose want to go to a Winner?

He should talk to Nash, and ask him what warm and fuzzy feels like.

Never-the-less, if Jose walks for free .... Raps get something for Lowry, and 10.6 million available to sign someone better. Difficult to see the negatives.

Not sure how any Raptor fan can take solace in $10.6M of cap space based on past history.

But the reality is the Raps don't have $10.6M in cap space. Their roster for next year currently has a payroll of $58M. The team will have to make significant trades or use amnesty on Bargnani to get over $10M in cap space. Then to use that space any Bird Rights or exceptions need to be renounced.

When talking PG, the crop is thin for next season. CP3? No. Best option for the Raptors to get a talented PG in FA is going to be Jennings and he will not come cheap. He will also relieve the numerous 'pass first' PG talk combined with poor defense. And Jennings, like most of the more desired free agent PG's, is going to be a RFA.

No one is going to be more value or talented than Lowry at $6.21M next season.

One minute you extoll his virtues ... then dismiss the formula that had success, because it fell within an unforgiveable time period. If he goes, then so be it.

From my perspective, you have to look at last season, where - despite the proverbial 10 game recovery phase - Bargs was still the best player (or close enough to debate it). That said, I have to admit I started to change my thoughts on AB's future with this club - as this season progressed. Sometimes divorce is the better option.

Then I heard Smitch on a radio interview. It was not pretty. You could tell there was some anger there. But despite all the negative words, Smitch continued to repeat that he genuinely believed - based on talent - that Andrea was the best choice. That of course factored in Brandon Roy, and the knees that today have become his undoing. If not for that, Raps were picking Roy.

As for Andrea, it goes beyond all the emotion. More a logical business plan, that gives reason for him. One that is strictly all about the numbers. Not wins and losses, although essentially it does come down to them. More so about odds. Like what are the odds Andrea makes it to the All-Star game (or is in the running), versus an All-Star actually coming here. That of course doesn't preclude Demar, or Jonas making the big game. I expect an All-Star moment at some point in their careers. Ross has potential. Kyle has too much competition.

I still can't believe 7 years of experience combined with the difference of Bargnani last year versus what he returned as this year is not enough to quit the 'potential' talk regarding Bargnani. Potential and talent are useless without HEART, HUSTLE, or DESIRE.

I don't have any issue with Bargnani's pick in 2006.

Bargnani an all star? *sigh*

Despite my opposition to Andrea being amnestied this summer, the fall-back position of his presense on this team, is the 12 million dollar amensty value in 2014. If I'm not mistaken, that's expected to be a good Free Agency year - with some serious names possible. That 12 mil wipe-out could also provide flexibility in taking back salary (for a price, of course). Especially with teams like LA, NY, or BK .... looking to clear space to acquire one of those possible Stars.


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What good is 2014 free agency if the Raptors continue to lose? Bargnani has shown he is a loser in Toronto. Your plan does not guarantee a PG. The Raptors could not sign Steve Nash - it is debatable if he would have chosen Toronto over NY as well. In the end we've fast forwarded a season and a half and are in the same place the Raptors currently reside: seeking more talent.

[Axel]

I think that Raptors fans need to move past Jose. He's been here for years and we've won nothing. Time to peddle his contract for future assets and let Lowry start again. All the "Jose should start" banter is not going to help anyone since Jose isn't the long-term answer, and Lowry wont if the fan base keeps crapping on him for not being Jose.

If we traded Lowry for Russell Westbrook, fans would still complain that he doesn't pass and set up his teammates as well as Jose does.

[Reinholt]

A few more thoughts...

1 - Why are you guys focusing on such small sample sizes for stats on Lowry? He's been healthy and starting for the Raptors for what, 2 games? Injured after that? Now off the bench?

If you want to compare him, pull his stats from a full two years in Houston where he was able to play and not injured. That will tell you a lot more about what kind of player Lowry is than the nonsense that has gone on this year in Toronto.

2 - I genuinely don't understand the Jose appreciation. Yes, he's a great passer. Yes, he's a pretty good shooter. No, he doesn't have a first step. No, he can't guard anyone, and in games where other PGs get shut down, it's because the Toronto bigs are helping (and Davis/Johnson can actually do that pretty well), but you wind up with other people hurting you. If you love Jose, you should also be willing to shell out $10mm per year to Reggie Evans as well, to pick a former raptor, as he's the exact same kind of player - great at one thing but very limited in many other ways. You can't build a team around that at $10mm per.

3 - You have several years of data showing that Calderon is not going to lead this team to be a winner, and he's a free agent after the season. Why continue to start him, and why keep him instead of trading him? What positive things would this accomplish for the Raptors?

4 - As to what you get back for Jose, yeah, $10mm in cap space alone (e.g. nothing) is actually pretty good. Granted, BC has a long history of wasting cap space (Fields, anyone?), but fire him and actually use that money to facilitate some sign and trades. To go back to Houston again, no way they would have picked up James Harden without cap space and some draft picks. Given the lack of a true franchise player in Toronto, the next best thing is to try to accumulate everything else of value in order to have the opportunity to get one.

[Nilanka]

A few more thoughts...

1 - Why are you guys focusing on such small sample sizes for stats on Lowry? He's been healthy and starting for the Raptors for what, 2 games? Injured after that? Now off the bench?

If you want to compare him, pull his stats from a full two years in Houston where he was able to play and not injured. That will tell you a lot more about what kind of player Lowry is than the nonsense that has gone on this year in Toronto.

2 - I genuinely don't understand the Jose appreciation. Yes, he's a great passer. Yes, he's a pretty good shooter. No, he doesn't have a first step. No, he can't guard anyone, and in games where other PGs get shut down, it's because the Toronto bigs are helping (and Davis/Johnson can actually do that pretty well), but you wind up with other people hurting you. If you love Jose, you should also be willing to shell out $10mm per year to Reggie Evans as well, to pick a former raptor, as he's the exact same kind of player - great at one thing but very limited in many other ways. You can't build a team around that at $10mm per.

3 - You have several years of data showing that Calderon is not going to lead this team to be a winner, and he's a free agent after the season. Why continue to start him, and why keep him instead of trading him? What positive things would this accomplish for the Raptors?

4 - As to what you get back for Jose, yeah, $10mm in cap space alone (e.g. nothing) is actually pretty good. Granted, BC has a long history of wasting cap space (Fields, anyone?), but fire him and actually use that money to facilitate some sign and trades. To go back to Houston again, no way they would have picked up James Harden without cap space and some draft picks. Given the lack of a true franchise player in Toronto, the next best thing is to try to accumulate everything else of value in order to have the opportunity to get one.

Fanboys don't believe in reason/logic/sample sizes....

[Copywryter]

I blow it up.

No player on this team is a superstar and this is a league where superstar-laden teams win playoff rounds. All we have are a collection of decent players that we amplify into good players because we watch and cheer for them.

In a Gay-less scenario our ceiling is 8th-seed mediocrity. With him it's 6th-seed mediocrity. What's the point of that? Why should that excite anyone?

This team is in no-man's land. We're short of talent. Good enough to just miss the playoffs but not bad enough to garner high lottery picks. We have some heavy contracts. Our GM is too far down his purple rabbit hole to evaluate his players objectively.


For me, no Raptor is absolutely untouchable.

Lowry is not a build-around guy. There are 7 years of evidence to the contrary. You can ignore the injuries, dispute with McHale, and hero-ball tendencies, but they exist. He can absolutely play basketball, but at his best is he a top-10 pg? No. Top 15? Sure. Thing is, that makes him only slightly better than average.

JV is a rook and a young one at that. With a huge motor. I'm not sure about the footspeed or athleticism. He's a maybe and the guy I'd least likely trade. BUT, we're not in big man league anymore, so I can't get too up on his upside.

Demar has blossomed into a very good player. Not great. Will he be an all-star? Might get one nod in his career. That's not a building block. Heavy contract.

ED has come on this year and is the player I'd trade second last. But I'd still trade him.

Jose, TRoss, Bargs, Amir, AA, all tradeable.

Yeah, it's a heartless, Eeyore assessment that makes it sound like I'm not a fan. But for me it's about building an elite team and nothing else. I'm aware that there are many other factors that affect the decisions that BC makes (mostly selling tickets) but I think you have to be cognizant of the pathways that today's elite teams have been built on.

Are we on any of those paths? No.

[Rapstor4Life]

It isn't a big man league anymore but having a legit center that can move and knows his game can be dominant its not a big man league but look how well Lakers did with 2 legit healthy bigs down low running the triangle its a nice couple of championships.

having a big like Aaron Gray is useless slow no motor no offensive skillset
having a big like a healthy Dwight Howard is

[Craiger]

A few more thoughts...

1 - Why are you guys focusing on such small sample sizes for stats on Lowry? He's been healthy and starting for the Raptors for what, 2 games? Injured after that? Now off the bench?

If you want to compare him, pull his stats from a full two years in Houston where he was able to play and not injured. That will tell you a lot more about what kind of player Lowry is than the nonsense that has gone on this year in Toronto.

2 - I genuinely don't understand the Jose appreciation. Yes, he's a great passer. Yes, he's a pretty good shooter. No, he doesn't have a first step. No, he can't guard anyone, and in games where other PGs get shut down, it's because the Toronto bigs are helping (and Davis/Johnson can actually do that pretty well), but you wind up with other people hurting you. If you love Jose, you should also be willing to shell out $10mm per year to Reggie Evans as well, to pick a former raptor, as he's the exact same kind of player - great at one thing but very limited in many other ways. You can't build a team around that at $10mm per.

3 - You have several years of data showing that Calderon is not going to lead this team to be a winner, and he's a free agent after the season. Why continue to start him, and why keep him instead of trading him? What positive things would this accomplish for the Raptors?

4 - As to what you get back for Jose, yeah, $10mm in cap space alone (e.g. nothing) is actually pretty good. Granted, BC has a long history of wasting cap space (Fields, anyone?), but fire him and actually use that money to facilitate some sign and trades. To go back to Houston again, no way they would have picked up James Harden without cap space and some draft picks. Given the lack of a true franchise player in Toronto, the next best thing is to try to accumulate everything else of value in order to have the opportunity to get one.

I don't get this marginalization of Jose that goes on here. He proves his worth time and time again yet fans always want to pass off his abilities as if they have little meaning.

1. I'm not going to touch this much because I think Lowry is alot better than some let on. I also think Jose is much better than some say aswell though. But lets not act like Lowry is an unknown who just needs more minutes. He, much like Jose, has his strengths and weaknesses. He isn't a superstar and may never end up being an all-star. That doesn't mean he isn't a good player, but he isn't a franchise player or a guy to build around.

2. Jose is not just a good passer, he is one of the best in the history of the league. Saying Jose is 'good' at passing is like saying Iverson or Reggie Miller were 'good' at scoring. I don't understand why the Reggie Evans comparison is being made... and I'm going to avoid their overrall contribution to a team and point out that Jose is expiring which means this team won't be paying him 10 mil a year going forward. If the team does resign him it won't be at that price. And who is asking to "build around him"?

Besides that I want to repeat something I've said many times. Teams defenses start with big men. This team has shown time and again it can have a good defense with Jose starting, and a bad defense when he doesn't. Its the bigs that make the difference, and this isn't going to change if its Lowry, Lucas or Jose starting.

3. This team hasn't won for the last 4 years with Jose. But over that time they've also been stuck with Bargnani starting, Colangelo making foolish short term moves and Jose often taken out of the starting line up or challenged for the role of starter. Jose has never been 'the man' on this team, or the key player or whatever. He happened to be a good player on a bad team. He's not a difference maker but was also never expected to be. Jose is a free agent this offseason, but why does that mean immediately trade him? Offer him a reasonable contract and see where things go from there. His game lends itself to a long shelf life, he makes players around him better, he is highly efficient and he offers leadership, experience and a model for future players.

I'm not against trading Jose, or starting Lowry or neither. But this idea that Lowry 'has to be the starter' while Jose has to go is lost to me.

Lets not forget, what ensures Lowry will remain here after his contract? And at what price? What about his numerous injuries over the years? At the very least his head down bull in a China shop style leads to a greater likelyhood of missing time. This team does lack a franchise player, and if Lowry is the best player, or one of the best players, does that not mean he is also the most likely to help net the peices necessary to obtain a franchise player? You bring up Houston and what they did, but lets remember, they are the ones that let Lowry go......

[Reinholt]

I don't get this marginalization of Jose that goes on here. He proves his worth time and time again yet fans always want to pass off his abilities as if they have little meaning.

1. I'm not going to touch this much because I think Lowry is alot better than some let on. I also think Jose is much better than some say aswell though. But lets not act like Lowry is an unknown who just needs more minutes. He, much like Jose, has his strengths and weaknesses. He isn't a superstar and may never end up being an all-star. That doesn't mean he isn't a good player, but he isn't a franchise player or a guy to build around.

2. Jose is not just a good passer, he is one of the best in the history of the league. Saying Jose is 'good' at passing is like saying Iverson or Reggie Miller were 'good' at scoring. I don't understand why the Reggie Evans comparison is being made... and I'm going to avoid their overrall contribution to a team and point out that Jose is expiring which means this team won't be paying him 10 mil a year going forward. If the team does resign him it won't be at that price. And who is asking to "build around him"?

Besides that I want to repeat something I've said many times. Teams defenses start with big men. This team has shown time and again it can have a good defense with Jose starting, and a bad defense when he doesn't. Its the bigs that make the difference, and this isn't going to change if its Lowry, Lucas or Jose starting.

My thoughts:

1 - Jose is not that good. He's in the bottom half of starting PGs in the league. I can definitely name 16 PGs that I would take over Jose if I was starting a team today. Plus, he's definitely overpaid.

2 - I would qualify Jose as a very good passer, not a great passer. You see significantly more offensive efficiency out of him, but you don't see him create opportunities out of thin air with his passing, or the exploitation of chinks in the armor of the defense that others did not even know existed that you can with some of the greats. I don't use great lightly, but if you want great passers, I would look at Stockton, Magic, and Nash as a few examples. Jose is very good, but not in that class (partially because he lacks either the size or athleticism to create the opportunities to pass that some of those guys had).

3 - Either way, the reason for the Reggie Evans comparison is this: Reggie is a very good rebounder, and a solid if unspectacular defender. He's also useless on offense (I live in Brooklyn and I see plenty of him this season, it's almost comical at times). Jose is that same player in reverse: he's a very good passer, a solid if unspectacular shooter. He's also useless on defense. So it's the inverse of Reggie - a player with some very high end skills, but also glaring limitations. The usual place for these guys in the NBA on solid playoff teams is either the bench, or as your 5th most important starter where you really need that one skill.

4 - Defenses don't start anywhere; it is a team effort. If team defense started with the bigs, there would be no way to explain the success that the GSW are having this season, because David Lee and Carl Landry aren't locking down anyone. Having a solid scheme, having all five players be able to execute within that scheme, and having a balance of perimeter defense and interior defense is what makes a defensive scheme tick when you reach the top levels of defense. Yes, exceptional backline players can cover for the weakness of front line players (Tim Duncan and Tyson Chandler, to name a pair), but however good that defense is, it would be even better with stronger perimeter defenders. If some NBA team were somehow able to roll out a Rajon Rondo-Tony Allen-Shane Battier-Kevin Garnett-Tyson Chandler defensive lineup this season, we could legitimately see a team score less than 50 points in an NBA game if the ball bounced their way. Throw in Calderon for one of those guys, and you're still going to have a very good defensive team, but it will take a step back. My point is that, on defense, the contributions of any one player have a knock on effect (for better or worse) to the rest of the team. Exceptional perimeter defenders make the bigs look better, and exceptional bigs make the perimeter defense look better. Take any one player and make them a weak link, and it reverberates throughout the system.

3. This team hasn't won for the last 4 years with Jose. But over that time they've also been stuck with Bargnani starting, Colangelo making foolish short term moves and Jose often taken out of the starting line up or challenged for the role of starter. Jose has never been 'the man' on this team, or the key player or whatever. He happened to be a good player on a bad team. He's not a difference maker but was also never expected to be. Jose is a free agent this offseason, but why does that mean immediately trade him? Offer him a reasonable contract and see where things go from there. His game lends itself to a long shelf life, he makes players around him better, he is highly efficient and he offers leadership, experience and a model for future players.

I'm not against trading Jose, or starting Lowry or neither. But this idea that Lowry 'has to be the starter' while Jose has to go is lost to me.

Lets not forget, what ensures Lowry will remain here after his contract? And at what price? What about his numerous injuries over the years? At the very least his head down bull in a China shop style leads to a greater likelyhood of missing time. This team does lack a franchise player, and if Lowry is the best player, or one of the best players, does that not mean he is also the most likely to help net the peices necessary to obtain a franchise player? You bring up Houston and what they did, but lets remember, they are the ones that let Lowry go......

1 - I don't think Jose is a good player, I just think he's a not bad player, because his limitations force you into things that you might not have to do with a less limited player. In the case of the Raptors, his greatest strength (passing) is the weakness of the rest of the team, so you have more value there than you would in some other contexts. I mean, as a thought experiment, how many teams would swap starting PGs with the Raptors for Jose? So trade him. Why? Because I'd rather have something than nothing. If he's leaving after the season (because signing a PG on the wrong side of 30 who plays poor defense makes no sense for a young team trying to build towards the playoffs), why not get something for him, as long as the something you can get has value? If nobody will trade you anything other than garbage, let him walk and take the cap space.

2 - Start Lowry for a year, see what he can do with this team, and if it doesn't work, trade him next year. The reason for the "must keep Lowry" thought is that you have Jose for 1 year and Lowry for 2. It's just order of operations based on contracts. If you go with Jose and he walks, now you have Lowry anyways. If you really want to go all in for Jose, it would be criminal not to deal Lowry instead at the deadline. Otherwise, the Raptors can just rinse and repeat and trade Lowry as an expiring deal next year if they don't want him.

Essentially this is what the Raptors should do:

- Trade Jose and/or take the cap space
- See if Lowry can make it work for a full season
- If not, trade Lowry and/or take the cap space
- If so, keep him or sign and trade him.

Maximize your options and your upside. By going Jose over Lowry, you reduce options and limit upside. This could be partially mitigated with a Lowry trade (especially the right one), which could be a reasonable fallback option, but do nothing and start Jose is a losing plan.

[ebrian]

A few more thoughts...

1 - Why are you guys focusing on such small sample sizes for stats on Lowry? He's been healthy and starting for the Raptors for what, 2 games? Injured after that? Now off the bench?

If you want to compare him, pull his stats from a full two years in Houston where he was able to play and not injured. That will tell you a lot more about what kind of player Lowry is than the nonsense that has gone on this year in Toronto.

Unfortunately stats don't always tell the story. As a close follower of the Rockets, can you explain what happened the following year when Lowry got hurt and lost his starting job, and why he couldn't get it back? From a statistical perspective, I do not see standout numbers for Dragic when compared to Lowry's for that season. When good players return from injury, the coach usually trusts them well enough to return to the starting lineup as soon as they are ready.

2 - Start Lowry for a year, see what he can do with this team, and if it doesn't work, trade him next year.

We tried this already, so should we trade him this year? Houston tried this too.

The reason for the "must keep Lowry" thought is that you have Jose for 1 year and Lowry for 2. It's just order of operations based on contracts. If you go with Jose and he walks, now you have Lowry anyways. If you really want to go all in for Jose, it would be criminal not to deal Lowry instead at the deadline. Otherwise, the Raptors can just rinse and repeat and trade Lowry as an expiring deal next year if they don't want him.

This is where, I think, we all agree. It makes no sense for the Raptors to think having two relatively decent point guards is a great advantage to have given how many holes we have to fill at every other position. It is time to evaluate which one has higher trade value, and then trade him.

Is it going to be Kyle Lowry, an oft-injured guard but better player overall with a small contract? Or is it going to be Jose Calderon, a pass-first classy guy with almost non-existent defensive capabilities and an expiring contract?

Edit: I do not mean to say Kyle Lowry is not classy.. lol

[Reinholt]

On Lowry not getting his starting job back:

1 - He was coming back from a serious bacterial infection (details are not fully publicized), and had visibly both lost weight (reports are that he lost over 15 pounds and could not eat for six days) and wasn't fully in shape because he literally was unable to work out or get out of bed. Keep in mind he was hospitalized with a fever of 104+ when this first happened. Thus, part of not getting his job back was the initial belief that he couldn't handle the workload immediately (probably correct). The other part is that McHale and Lowry hated each other, and already had issues previously in the year; I'm sure Lowry viewed the decision not to give him the job back as a personal insult from McHale. To that point, also, if there is one critique of Lowry I am strongly behind, it's that he is hard to coach. With all that said, Houston fans were irate when Lowry was traded, and there is still a feeling that the team screwed up and should have kept Lowry instead of signing Lin. A Lowry/Harden backcourt could be terrifying.

2 - I don't think Toronto can claim they've tried Lowry as a starter. They had him healthy and starting for two games, and he's 1-1. I don't think that qualifies as a fair shot (especially if you are comparing Toronto with injured Lowry+Bargnani to Toronto with Calderon+Davis, as healthy Lowry+Davis might be the best of those three configurations but hasn't been tried). Penalizing him for gutting it out and playing injured when the team wanted him back on the court is precisely the kind of thing that, while he's already got a reputation for having issues with coaches, would be a legitimate issue with how Toronto treated him or how he was coached. "Hey, come back, we need you, but also, we're going to screw you for coming back quickly by using your performance when injured as a justification to give your job to someone else" is a recipe for next season having Lowry develop a mysterious soft tissue injury that keeps him off the court on the advice of his agent until the final four to six weeks of the season to showcase himself, and then dropping f-bombs before hanging up on Toronto when they call in the offseason about a new contract.

So I think Toronto is in this situation:

- They know Calderon is not going to propel them to contender status.
- They honestly don't know what they have in Lowry (maybe he is better than Calderon, maybe he is worse).
- They should have figured out that Bargnani is part of the problem and not part of the solution.

So what do they have to lose by giving Lowry a shot? Maybe you have nothing and maybe you have an asset, but I would argue it's better to trade Calderon for what you can get and find out what you have with Lowry than the reverse.

[Matt52]

Unfortunately stats don't always tell the story. As a close follower of the Rockets, can you explain what happened the following year when Lowry got hurt and lost his starting job, and why he couldn't get it back? From a statistical perspective, I do not see standout numbers for Dragic when compared to Lowry's for that season. When good players return from injury, the coach usually trusts them well enough to return to the starting lineup as soon as they are ready.



We tried this already, so should we trade him this year? Houston tried this too.



This is where, I think, we all agree. It makes no sense for the Raptors to think having two relatively decent point guards is a great advantage to have given how many holes we have to fill at every other position. It is time to evaluate which one has higher trade value, and then trade him.

Is it going to be Kyle Lowry, an oft-injured guard but better player overall with a small contract? Or is it going to be Jose Calderon, a pass-first classy guy with almost non-existent defensive capabilities and an expiring contract?

Edit: I do not mean to say Kyle Lowry is not classy.. lol

15 games - 13 of which he was not 100% (ie. he came back too early) - and prior to a total philosophical shift from the coaching staff is the only opportunity he gets - even after he comes back and shifts his game to meet the request of his teammates and coaches? Wow. Tough crowd. lol

[special1]

I don't get this marginalization of Jose that goes on here. He proves his worth time and time again yet fans always want to pass off his abilities as if they have little meaning.

1. I'm not going to touch this much because I think Lowry is alot better than some let on. I also think Jose is much better than some say aswell though. But lets not act like Lowry is an unknown who just needs more minutes. He, much like Jose, has his strengths and weaknesses. He isn't a superstar and may never end up being an all-star. That doesn't mean he isn't a good player, but he isn't a franchise player or a guy to build around.

2. Jose is not just a good passer, he is one of the best in the history of the league. Saying Jose is 'good' at passing is like saying Iverson or Reggie Miller were 'good' at scoring. I don't understand why the Reggie Evans comparison is being made... and I'm going to avoid their overrall contribution to a team and point out that Jose is expiring which means this team won't be paying him 10 mil a year going forward. If the team does resign him it won't be at that price. And who is asking to "build around him"?

Besides that I want to repeat something I've said many times. Teams defenses start with big men. This team has shown time and again it can have a good defense with Jose starting, and a bad defense when he doesn't. Its the bigs that make the difference, and this isn't going to change if its Lowry, Lucas or Jose starting.

3. This team hasn't won for the last 4 years with Jose. But over that time they've also been stuck with Bargnani starting, Colangelo making foolish short term moves and Jose often taken out of the starting line up or challenged for the role of starter. Jose has never been 'the man' on this team, or the key player or whatever. He happened to be a good player on a bad team. He's not a difference maker but was also never expected to be. Jose is a free agent this offseason, but why does that mean immediately trade him? Offer him a reasonable contract and see where things go from there. His game lends itself to a long shelf life, he makes players around him better, he is highly efficient and he offers leadership, experience and a model for future players.

I'm not against trading Jose, or starting Lowry or neither. But this idea that Lowry 'has to be the starter' while Jose has to go is lost to me.

Lets not forget, what ensures Lowry will remain here after his contract? And at what price? What about his numerous injuries over the years? At the very least his head down bull in a China shop style leads to a greater likelyhood of missing time. This team does lack a franchise player, and if Lowry is the best player, or one of the best players, does that not mean he is also the most likely to help net the peices necessary to obtain a franchise player? You bring up Houston and what they did, but lets remember, they are the ones that let Lowry go......

You bring up some pretty good points.....I feel the same way.

I'm good with either PG, but i dont think Lowry is THAT much of a difference maker (when you factor in his injuries due to the style of play and also THIS TEAM - which clearly plays better with Jose's style). I think Trading Lowry will net you a better piece than Jose right now. I too would offer Jose a reasonable contract and convert him to a backup/mentor role as he gets older.....Do i know if Jose wants to stay?? Of course not, but i would offer him a contract and if he says no, then trade him before the deadline.

Its time for Raptor Fans to start accepting that Jose is better than we give him credit. He gets EVERYONE involved and is the perfect PG for this team and situation. If we can get an elite/really good SF and backup C to compliment Jose, DD, ED, Amir, JV and we should have a team that will be able to compete with the better teams in the league.

[Nilanka]

You bring up some pretty good points.....I feel the same way.

I'm good with either PG, but i dont think Lowry is THAT much of a difference maker (when you factor in his injuries due to the style of play and also THIS TEAM - which clearly plays better with Jose's style). I think Trading Lowry will net you a better piece than Jose right now. I too would offer Jose a reasonable contract and convert him to a backup/mentor role as he gets older.....Do i know if Jose wants to stay?? Of course not, but i would offer him a contract and if he says no, then trade him before the deadline.

Its time for Raptor Fans to start accepting that Jose is better than we give him credit. He gets EVERYONE involved and is the perfect PG for this team and situation. If we can get an elite/really good SF and backup C to compliment Jose, DD, ED, Amir, JV and we should have a team that will be able to compete with the better teams in the league.

DD, ED, Amir and JV all need a player like Jose to get them the ball. They're incapable of creating scoring opportunities alone.

That's more a knock on DD, ED, Amir and JV, than praise for Calderon. All our of "core" players have big holes in their games.

[Axel]

So I think Toronto is in this situation:

- They know Calderon is not going to propel them to contender status.
- They honestly don't know what they have in Lowry (maybe he is better than Calderon, maybe he is worse).
- They should have figured out that Bargnani is part of the problem and not part of the solution.

So what do they have to lose by giving Lowry a shot? Maybe you have nothing and maybe you have an asset, but I would argue it's better to trade Calderon for what you can get and find out what you have with Lowry than the reverse.

That is a nice summary of how I feel too. I'd be fine if the team traded them both if it brought back high level talent, but I just happen to think that Lowry can play at a near triple-double a night level, so it would be better to let him play.

[Craiger]

So I think Toronto is in this situation:

- They know Calderon is not going to propel them to contender status.
- They honestly don't know what they have in Lowry (maybe he is better than Calderon, maybe he is worse).
- They should have figured out that Bargnani is part of the problem and not part of the solution.

So what do they have to lose by giving Lowry a shot? Maybe you have nothing and maybe you have an asset, but I would argue it's better to trade Calderon for what you can get and find out what you have with Lowry than the reverse.

Its fine to like Lowry more or think he's the better player, I personally don't agree with it (I think the are very close in calibre, although near mirror opposites in style) but I can appreciate it. However:

- Jose won't propel Toronto into contender status, and neither will Lowry. However either can be useful and good quality players on a contending team. The question needs to be who can play longer, who will be more useful, who will be a more valuable contract in the long run, and who will add the most to the team. And that to me is not an easy answer.

- Lowry has been in this league long enough to have a very good idea of what you have with him. To know his strengths and his weaknesses. In fact he only has one less year experience than Jose and his career has run quite parrallel to Jose's. Moving in and out of starting roles, being moved from teams (although with Jose it was attempts to move him), finding significant roles on losing and mediocre teams. He is not a rookie or a young player getting his first crack into a line up.
- completely agree

As for the last paragraph I can't help but question it. The team does have something to lose by "giving Lowry a shot". A starting calibre PG in Jose, whatever Lowry's trade value is, perhaps having a starting PG in 2 years time, cap space if the team needs to resign him at a premium. Moving Jose and/or making Lowry the starting PG isn't, and shouldn't be, a black and white issue. There are risks and rewards to both.

But i do agree that a decision does need to be made as to which way the team would like to go, and I think both are fair options. Trying to replace Jose was always a waste of time and resources, and now running two starting calibre PGs on a bad to mediocre team with numerous holes is a continual waste of the same.

[Matt52]

Andrea Bargnani, Toronto
16.0ppg 4.3rpg 0.7bpg 12.43 PER

The Toronto Raptors want to trade Andrea Bargnani, so that’s likely going to happen. The question remains what do they get back for him and who takes on his contract?

A small survey of league executives showed very little upside to Bargnani, but at the same time he is still a player some teams think highly of. His current injury, his work ethic and his lackadaisical approach are huge red flags that will impact value, but there is a sense that a couple of teams would take the chance on Bargnani if the price were right.

So here is the game of it, how long does Toronto hold on to him before they blink and part ways? The other question is what do the Raptors do with Jose Calderon?

Combined, both players represent a huge chunk of salary changing hands and the return even at “discounted prices” could yield a lot.

There is no doubt that Toronto is being aggressive in the marketplace, the question is what will they get back for Bargnani and can he get back on the court before the trade deadline and prove concerns about his health wrong.

Read more at http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-am-nba...ufWK0jskjQh.99

The bold gives me comfort. I struggle to think of a couple of teams that would want him but by now it is pretty clear I am no longer objective.

[Nilanka]

The bold gives me comfort. I struggle to think of a couple of teams that would want him but by now it is pretty clear I am no longer objective.

Denver perhaps in a deal involving Chandler? Then again, Bargnani's laziness will be magnified given the thin Colorado air