Calderon or Lowry? - Zach Lowe of Grantland

[Craiger]

Agree. Although i dont think theyre trying to turn Lowry into Calderon, but rather taking positives from Calderon's game and trying to integrate it into Lowry's game. I dont mean to brag but this is what ive been saying about Calderon since T.J. Ford upto Lowry, you can coach how to pass and when to take shots, but the drive, willingness to attack and close games is innate. Things that Calderon does not have, and cannot be taught.

This is all on management. First, they shouldnt have rushed Lowry back. IMO, they did. Clearly Lowry wasnt 100% and wasnt in full attack mode when he came back against the hornets. Second, Lowry was the clear cut starter when the season started, why would you force him to come off the bench after an injury? It wasnt his fault he got injured. Given Jose was playing great (actually, not really since they were against sub par teams), roles have to be clearly defined. You wont see CP3 coming of the bench if he got injured and EB was playing great. You wont see Curry coming off the bench even if Jack was averaging 15/5/10. I know Casey is trying to preach the "earn your minutes" mantra but you cant define roles then blur them just because of a gliche.

Slaw is right. Clearly there is no plan. Casey is picking players he feels earned to play minutes. And you cant do that. Roles have to be clearly defined otherwise, things happen that he is vocal about avoiding - controversies.

And that worked out so well with Bargnani right? Defined role was a good thing for the team and resulted in less controversies?

Not holding players accountable, not rewarding players or allowing them to earn new or bigger roles, defining what a player is on that team and maintaining it as the status quo is a TERRIBLE idea. If it causes an internal controversy because a player has an issue with it, you know exactly which players to dump.


We've witnessed the consequences of defining roles wihout reward/accountablity for years. No more please.

[BasketballCrush]

^2nd the above.

[Reinholt]

So you are holding Lowry accountable for what? Casey running a terrible offense and leaving Bargnani in the starting lineup when he wasn't trying? Getting injured and trying to come back because the team needed him and playing when not 100% healthy?

I'm not sure what you hold him "accountable" for in this case.

He's the better player by virtually every metric other than assist percentage. The team had a better record with him out because they played weaker opposition and swapped Bargnani out of the lineup. Lowry has looked fantastic in the past few games and Jose has looked slow (and both are battling injuries now, so this is closer to a fair comparison).

For instance, if the Clippers insisted on playing a super-stiff in their starting lineup, and opened the season by losing several in a row to the Spurs, Grizzlies, Warriors, and Thunder, then CP3 got injured, Bledsoe came in, they simultaneously benched the stiffs, and then ran over the Bobcats, Raptors, Kings, and no-center Lakers, would you bench Chris Paul? That would be insanity.

Again, this is not to say Lowry is the long term answer, especially with the current supporting cast. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't; Jose is not. That's obvious. No advanced statistics support Calderon, no team winning percentage over a full season against non-cupcake opponents, and no playoff success over multiple years for Jose. It's pretty obvious that Jose is either a low end starter or a high end bench player in the NBA (and the latter is what he could be on a contender or strong playoff team). Everything points that way.

On the other hand, as previously stated, most advanced statistics love Lowry, his teams have been consistently strong despite sub-par talent (seriously, could Calderon have taken the Houston team Lowry was on to 4 games over .500 in a much tougher western conference?). None of this means Lowry is a savior. But he's cheaper than Jose for the next two years, will be far more valuable as an expiring contract next year, and might be good.

I literally don't understand the arguments for keeping Calderon. Why should the Raptors pay more for mediocrity with no upside and bury their best player (again, that's not a great feat on the Raptors right now, but it's still something) to do it? I mean, what is the argument for keeping Calderon if your goal is to contend for a championship, or at a bare minimum, a top-4 seed in the long run? Keeping JC is exactly the same mentality that lead them to overpay DeRozan and kept Bargnani in the starting lineup.

[Matt52]

Add to this the fact that Lowry has played fantastic. Looking at point guards playing 25+ mins and he is top ten in PER, APER, WS, EFF, TS% and he doesn't turn the ball over much at all. His AST% is a little low but other than that, he's been one of the better PGs in the entire NBA when he's played.

I'm not slagging Calderon, he has put up excellent numbers as well and, even with strength of schedule, you can't entirely discount the wins they had with him playing big minutes. Still, as much as I like Jose, this team has gone nowhere with him at the helm. It isn't going anywhere with Lowry in the short-term either but maybe they should try and find out if long term Lowry is the answer.

+1

actually, scratch that, +2

[Matt52]

So you are holding Lowry accountable for what? Casey running a terrible offense and leaving Bargnani in the starting lineup when he wasn't trying? Getting injured and trying to come back because the team needed him and playing when not 100% healthy?

I'm not sure what you hold him "accountable" for in this case.

He's the better player by virtually every metric other than assist percentage. The team had a better record with him out because they played weaker opposition and swapped Bargnani out of the lineup. Lowry has looked fantastic in the past few games and Jose has looked slow (and both are battling injuries now, so this is closer to a fair comparison).

For instance, if the Clippers insisted on playing a super-stiff in their starting lineup, and opened the season by losing several in a row to the Spurs, Grizzlies, Warriors, and Thunder, then CP3 got injured, Bledsoe came in, they simultaneously benched the stiffs, and then ran over the Bobcats, Raptors, Kings, and no-center Lakers, would you bench Chris Paul? That would be insanity.

Again, this is not to say Lowry is the long term answer, especially with the current supporting cast. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't; Jose is not. That's obvious. No advanced statistics support Calderon, no team winning percentage over a full season against non-cupcake opponents, and no playoff success over multiple years for Jose. It's pretty obvious that Jose is either a low end starter or a high end bench player in the NBA (and the latter is what he could be on a contender or strong playoff team). Everything points that way.

On the other hand, as previously stated, most advanced statistics love Lowry, his teams have been consistently strong despite sub-par talent (seriously, could Calderon have taken the Houston team Lowry was on to 4 games over .500 in a much tougher western conference?). None of this means Lowry is a savior. But he's cheaper than Jose for the next two years, will be far more valuable as an expiring contract next year, and might be good.

I literally don't understand the arguments for keeping Calderon. Why should the Raptors pay more for mediocrity with no upside and bury their best player (again, that's not a great feat on the Raptors right now, but it's still something) to do it? I mean, what is the argument for keeping Calderon if your goal is to contend for a championship, or at a bare minimum, a top-4 seed in the long run? Keeping JC is exactly the same mentality that lead them to overpay DeRozan and kept Bargnani in the starting lineup.

Well said.

[Craiger]

So you are holding Lowry accountable for what? Casey running a terrible offense and leaving Bargnani in the starting lineup when he wasn't trying? Getting injured and trying to come back because the team needed him and playing when not 100% healthy?

I'm not sure what you hold him "accountable" for in this case.

He's the better player by virtually every metric other than assist percentage. The team had a better record with him out because they played weaker opposition and swapped Bargnani out of the lineup. Lowry has looked fantastic in the past few games and Jose has looked slow (and both are battling injuries now, so this is closer to a fair comparison).

For instance, if the Clippers insisted on playing a super-stiff in their starting lineup, and opened the season by losing several in a row to the Spurs, Grizzlies, Warriors, and Thunder, then CP3 got injured, Bledsoe came in, they simultaneously benched the stiffs, and then ran over the Bobcats, Raptors, Kings, and no-center Lakers, would you bench Chris Paul? That would be insanity.

Again, this is not to say Lowry is the long term answer, especially with the current supporting cast. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't; Jose is not. That's obvious. No advanced statistics support Calderon, no team winning percentage over a full season against non-cupcake opponents, and no playoff success over multiple years for Jose. It's pretty obvious that Jose is either a low end starter or a high end bench player in the NBA (and the latter is what he could be on a contender or strong playoff team). Everything points that way.

On the other hand, as previously stated, most advanced statistics love Lowry, his teams have been consistently strong despite sub-par talent (seriously, could Calderon have taken the Houston team Lowry was on to 4 games over .500 in a much tougher western conference?). None of this means Lowry is a savior. But he's cheaper than Jose for the next two years, will be far more valuable as an expiring contract next year, and might be good.

I literally don't understand the arguments for keeping Calderon. Why should the Raptors pay more for mediocrity with no upside and bury their best player (again, that's not a great feat on the Raptors right now, but it's still something) to do it? I mean, what is the argument for keeping Calderon if your goal is to contend for a championship, or at a bare minimum, a top-4 seed in the long run? Keeping JC is exactly the same mentality that lead them to overpay DeRozan and kept Bargnani in the starting lineup.

I've stated them many times in this thread. If you don't understand them I imagine its because you highly undervalue Jose and overvalue Lowry compared to myself.

To the second bold, its the exact opposite mentality than overpaying Demar and keeping Bargnani. Jose is a good quality player that has proved it through consistency over the years. The advanced metrics you speak of regarding Lowry say that about Jose. He HAS produced. Demar and Bargnani not only have not produced, but have been rewarded for being net negative players whose entire role was based on 'potential' . The world of difference between those two ideas (ie. net productivity vs net liability and consistency/reliability vs potential) is enourmous.

And I never said anything about 'holding Lowry accountability'. I was speaking of accountability and REWARD and EARNING a role. Something Jose has done, something Lowry has yet to do.

The irony here is simply handing Lowry a role on this team going forward is EXACTLY what this team has done with Bargnani and Demar. Yet people want this repeated. Maybe I'll just never understand fans.

[Craiger]

I've stated them many times in this thread. If you don't understand them I imagine its because you highly undervalue Jose and overvalue Lowry compared to myself.

To the second bold, its the exact opposite mentality than overpaying Demar and keeping Bargnani. Jose is a good quality player that has proved it through consistency over the years. The advanced metrics you speak of regarding Lowry say that about Jose. He HAS produced. Demar and Bargnani not only have not produced, but have been rewarded for being net negative players whose entire role was based on 'potential' . The world of difference between those two ideas (ie. net productivity vs net liability and consistency/reliability vs potential) is enourmous.

And I never said anything about 'holding Lowry accountability'. I was speaking of accountability and REWARD and EARNING a role. Something Jose has done, something Lowry has yet to do.

The irony here is simply handing Lowry a role on this team going forward is EXACTLY what this team has done with Bargnani and Demar. Yet people want this repeated. Maybe I'll just never understand fans.

just to edit this - they haven't been in this thread but in another thread where we discussed this

[Chr1s1anL]

I've stated them many times in this thread. If you don't understand them I imagine its because you highly undervalue Jose and overvalue Lowry compared to myself.

To the second bold, its the exact opposite mentality than overpaying Demar and keeping Bargnani. Jose is a good quality player that has proved it through consistency over the years. The advanced metrics you speak of regarding Lowry say that about Jose. He HAS produced. Demar and Bargnani not only have not produced, but have been rewarded for being net negative players whose entire role was based on 'potential' . The world of difference between those two ideas (ie. net productivity vs net liability and consistency/reliability vs potential) is enourmous.

And I never said anything about 'holding Lowry accountability'. I was speaking of accountability and REWARD and EARNING a role. Something Jose has done, something Lowry has yet to do.

The irony here is simply handing Lowry a role on this team going forward is EXACTLY what this team has done with Bargnani and Demar. Yet people want this repeated. Maybe I'll just never understand fans.

Would say that Kyle hasn't earned the starting nod after the pat couple games? Nobody seems to notice that against good teams Calderon seem to disappear and be a non-factor.

[Craiger]

Would say that Kyle hasn't earned the starting nod after the pat couple games? Nobody seems to notice that against good teams Calderon seem to disappear and be a non-factor.

Lowry has played well, not only recently but in general. But so has Jose. And a couple games is just that, a couple games.

For the month of January he's avearging 12-8 on 50% shooting, with 8 assist 0.5 turnovers , 40% from 3 in 27 minutes. Boring numbers - amazing productivity

As for Jose 'disappearing':

20 -17 vs utah. 13-10 vs Boston, 10-15 vs Brooklyn, 10-11 vs OKC, 21-8 vs milwaukee or his triple doubles agaisnt Indiana and Houston

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

And that worked out so well with Bargnani right? Defined role was a good thing for the team and resulted in less controversies?

Not holding players accountable, not rewarding players or allowing them to earn new or bigger roles, defining what a player is on that team and maintaining it as the status quo is a TERRIBLE idea. If it causes an internal controversy because a player has an issue with it, you know exactly which players to dump.


We've witnessed the consequences of defining roles wihout reward/accountablity for years. No more please.

I think i know where you're coming from, youre thinking of the negative aspect of role definition while im thinking of the positive aspect. my pov is lowry being taken out of the starting lineup while he is playing great while youre thinking of Bargnani who stays in the starting lineup even tho he's not being accountable. I guess it is a double edged sword so to speak, but my post was leaning towards the lowry context rather than the bargnani one.

The reason why Bargnani is what he is today is because management never fully defined his role on the team. They drafted him knowing he was a pure scoring PF with sub par rebounding and defense and yet they pushed him to be a 5. Then they pushed him to defend and rebound because everybody outside the organization was ridiculing him and them. Then, they surrendered and allowed him to be a PF, and acknowledge that he will never be a good defender or rebounder. I dont think thats means "defining" his role, but thats a whole other discussion so im not going into that again.

How do you correlate Lowry's coming back from injury to accountability? Was it his fault he got injured? It wasnt like Lowry was having a sub-par season before he got injured. I can understand if he was playing bad and Calderon stepped up and took the starting spot from him. Thats earning the spot. But up until Lowry plays 36 mins, shoots 20% commits 10 TOs a game then theres no reason for him to be yanked off the starting spot. He was acquired to be a starter and he is playing as a starter.

I get your point, but IMO, every team has their own Lebron, Durant, Duncan, etc. Lowry may not be as good as James, but clearly he is the Lebron James of this team. If Lebron goes down and Battier picks up the slack, do you really see Battier starting over James when James is healthy? Same with the Raptors.

[Craiger]

I think i know where you're coming from, youre thinking of the negative aspect of role definition while im thinking of the positive aspect. my pov is lowry being taken out of the starting lineup while he is playing great while youre thinking of Bargnani who stays in the starting lineup even tho he's not being accountable. I guess it is a double edged sword so to speak, but my post was leaning towards the lowry context rather than the bargnani one.

The reason why Bargnani is what he is today is because management never fully defined his role on the team. They drafted him knowing he was a pure scoring PF with sub par rebounding and defense and yet they pushed him to be a 5. Then they pushed him to defend and rebound because everybody outside the organization was ridiculing him and them. Then, they surrendered and allowed him to be a PF, and acknowledge that he will never be a good defender or rebounder. I dont think thats means "defining" his role, but thats a whole other discussion so im not going into that again.

How do you correlate Lowry's coming back from injury to accountability? Was it his fault he got injured? It wasnt like Lowry was having a sub-par season before he got injured. I can understand if he was playing bad and Calderon stepped up and took the starting spot from him. Thats earning the spot. But up until Lowry plays 36 mins, shoots 20% commits 10 TOs a game then theres no reason for him to be yanked off the starting spot. He was acquired to be a starter and he is playing as a starter.

I get your point, but IMO, every team has their own Lebron, Durant, Duncan, etc. Lowry may not be as good as James, but clearly he is the Lebron James of this team. If Lebron goes down and Battier picks up the slack, do you really see Battier starting over James when James is healthy? Same with the Raptors.

He's got little to be held accountable for. And I never said he did.

And Chris Bosh was the Lebron James of this team to at one point. So was Bargnani. That led where? What am I missing here? People keep comparing him to superstars or superstar like situations and then say 'but he's not as good', and they are right. He's not as good as them.... so why treat him like he is?

[BasketballCrush]

I feel Jose has earned an all-star appearance this year.

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

He's got little to be held accountable for. And I never said he did.

And Chris Bosh was the Lebron James of this team to at one point. So was Bargnani. That led where? What am I missing here? People keep comparing him to superstars or superstar like situations and then say 'but he's not as good', and they are right. He's not as good as them.... so why treat him like he is?

That is a fair assessment, but youre looking at this with tunnel vision.

They tried numerous times building around Bosh, it almost worked once, then due to injuries, it faltered. They tried building around Bargnani, then re-build with Bargnani and it just didnt work out. So now you have another top-calibre player, youre saying dismiss his capabilities just because they tried building around one before and it didnt work? This may sound cliche and like a broken record to raptor fans but facts are there, they have a legit center, a young athletic, shooter/defender and a highly capable PG. when was the last time the raptors had this much blocks to build on?

[Reinholt]

A few points...

1 - Advanced metrics don't love Jose. His PER, Win Shares, most plus/minus metrics etc. are all inferior to Lowry. Basically, once you start getting into metrics that can account for Jose's defense and his offensive limitations against teams with speed/length, he's not even in the top half of starting PGs in the league.

2 - I don't think I overvalue Lowry at all when he's getting paid half of what JC is and signed for twice as long. Do you think JC is twice as good as Lowry? If not, keep KL and trade JC. When you consider contracts, age, and defense, there's no reason to go with JC that I can see.

3 - If you aren't going to go with KL, what is the case for JC? What is the team's upside with him, and what makes him a starting caliber PG for a consistent playoff team, which should be the goal (at a minimum)? And, in that case, should you trade KL?

[Craiger]

That is a fair assessment, but youre looking at this with tunnel vision.

They tried numerous times building around Bosh, it almost worked once, then due to injuries, it faltered. They tried building around Bargnani, then re-build with Bargnani and it just didnt work out. So now you have another top-calibre player, youre saying dismiss his capabilities just because they tried building around one before and it didnt work? This may sound cliche and like a broken record to raptor fans but facts are there, they have a legit center, a young athletic, shooter/defender and a highly capable PG. when was the last time the raptors had this much blocks to build on?

I can point out two reasons why I see this situation much different than yourself (and perhaps others)

- nothing 'almost' worked with Bosh. They won 47 games one year and got bounced out of the playoffs.

- I don't see Lowry as 'top calibre'.

And while I agree that Val/Ross/Lowry is perhaps the best young players this team has had in a long while (although I don't quite define Lowry at 26 and 7 years experience as 'young' by NBA standards but thats not here nor there), thats also a function of how poor of a job this organization has done over the years. Its the result of Colangelo building low standards

[Matt52]

I can point out two reasons why I see this situation much different than yourself (and perhaps others)

- nothing 'almost' worked with Bosh. They won 47 games one year and got bounced out of the playoffs.

- I don't see Lowry as 'top calibre'.

And while I agree that Val/Ross/Lowry is perhaps the best young players this team has had in a long while (although I don't quite define Lowry at 26 and 7 years experience as 'young' by NBA standards but thats not here nor there), thats also a function of how poor of a job this organization has done over the years. Its the result of Colangelo building low standards

GAARRRRRRRRR-BOOOOOOOOO!


lol not really

[Craiger]

A few points...

1 - Advanced metrics don't love Jose. His PER, Win Shares, most plus/minus metrics etc. are all inferior to Lowry. Basically, once you start getting into metrics that can account for Jose's defense and his offensive limitations against teams with speed/length, he's not even in the top half of starting PGs in the league.

2 - I don't think I overvalue Lowry at all when he's getting paid half of what JC is and signed for twice as long. Do you think JC is twice as good as Lowry? If not, keep KL and trade JC. When you consider contracts, age, and defense, there's no reason to go with JC that I can see.

3 - If you aren't going to go with KL, what is the case for JC? What is the team's upside with him, and what makes him a starting caliber PG for a consistent playoff team, which should be the goal (at a minimum)? And, in that case, should you trade KL?

1. I never compared Jose's #s to Lowry's.

2. Calderons contract is expiring. What he makes today is irrelevant to his next contract, which is the one I'm concerned with. Lowry's contract ends in a season and a half, at which point he is getting a new one to (with no guarantees he stays).

3. I've made the case for Jose numerous time, and I highly doubt repeating it would have an influence on you. You've already stated that you believe this team can't win with Jose. So what could I possibly say to change that? His numbers and his consistency speak for themselves. And if the team goes with Jose should you trade KL? Yes. Said that already to, also mentioned how since this team needs to rebuild and Lowry could easily be the best trade peice they have it may make the most sense to trade him peroid. And there is a fair case for trading both.

[Rapstor4Life]

anyone favor trading Calderon for Collison?

[octothorp]

Nick or Darren?

[Chr1s1anL]

1. I never compared Jose's #s to Lowry's.

2. Calderons contract is expiring. What he makes today is irrelevant to his next contract, which is the one I'm concerned with. Lowry's contract ends in a season and a half, at which point he is getting a new one to (with no guarantees he stays).

3. I've made the case for Jose numerous time, and I highly doubt repeating it would have an influence on you. You've already stated that you believe this team can't win with Jose. So what could I possibly say to change that? His numbers and his consistency speak for themselves. And if the team goes with Jose should you trade KL? Yes. Said that already to, also mentioned how since this team needs to rebuild and Lowry could easily be the best trade peice they have it may make the most sense to trade him peroid. And there is a fair case for trading both.

There is no guarantee that Jose will stay either. There is no reason for us to trade are best player in his prime.