Calderon or Lowry? - Zach Lowe of Grantland

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

Lowry's PER is higher than Jose's but the difference is not particularly wide and both are well above average. Calderon's win shares are actually higher than KL's, albeit lower on a per 48 minute basis. Once you get into the metrics that account for Jose's defense... they actually show that Calderon has been a better defender this season than Lowry (Lowry's opponent PER = 19.3 Calderon opponent PER = 15.2). Most of the +/- numbers that I have come across also show that Calderon is doing better in that regard than Lowry this season.

Are the stats from this season only? Would that be accurate considering Lowry's played only half the season and limited minutes in some nights? And the fact that he was mostly injured the past year and hasnt even played a full month? Could it also be that Calderon has been accustomed to the same system for almost three years while Lowry had only training camp and a handful of games this season to get his game accustomed to the Raptors offensive and defensive schemes?

Im not being sarcastic but i actually want to know if these factors could possibly influence the PER

[Craiger]

So the bottom line is, you dont think both PGs are good enough as the future PG of the Raps, but if one stays and the other one is traded, youre ok with it as long as they dont keep both?

Am i right?

On the contrary, I think both PGs are good enough as the future PGs of the Raps but keeping both is a waste of resources given where the Raps are.

[Fully]

This paragraph should be framed next to colangelos bed

Another great example of a popular narrative amongst the fans that eventually overtakes what is happening in real life. Colangelo has already traded Calderon once and has brought in 4 (and counting...) point guards to take his job. Do not lump Calderon into the same category as Bargnani. It's just not true.

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

On the contrary, I think both PGs are good enough as the future PGs of the Raps but keeping both is a waste of resources given where the Raps are.

hahaha you're confusing me man!

But yes, can't keep both.

[Fully]

Are the stats from this season only? Would that be accurate considering Lowry's played only half the season and limited minutes in some nights? And the fact that he was mostly injured the past year and hasnt even played a full month? Could it also be that Calderon has been accustomed to the same system for almost three years while Lowry had only training camp and a handful of games this season to get his game accustomed to the Raptors offensive and defensive schemes?

Im not being sarcastic but i actually want to know if these factors could possibly influence the PER

The stats I posted are from this season - although Calderon's career PER is higher than Lowry's - and all of the factors you listed would have an impact on the numbers. I was only responding to a poster who I felt was spinning the #'s in order to advance his argument. Check out the bolded part of my original post. My point wasn't to show that Calderon is a better player than Lowry anyway(in a vacuum I think it's hard to argue than Lowry isn't a superior player), I just thought it was important to clear up.

[ReubenJRD]

If we can, keep both. But, not at the price for Jose Calderon at 6$-9$ million a year, & him starting when Lowry is available.

From day 1, regardless of situation - unless he's injured - Kyle Lowry should the be the starting point guard. He's shown his willingness to change to the needs of the team, but not too much at the point to take him out of being assertive. Balanced Lowry is going to be key, but needs to be on the floor to get the best out of him. Easily our most talented player.

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

I am not one of the people who thinks Jose is the long term answer at point guard for the Raptors. If he is brought back on a reduced salary for 2-3 years after this one, with the plan for him to be backup, I would be okay with it. I would also be fine with him moving on, and using the cap space to fill other holes on the roster.

My main issue with this is that Jose is 32, and we all know that with age, players become less agile, alert, longer reaction time towards situations. If you look around the league, who do you see as emerging backup PGs? Bledsoe, Norris Cole, Moore, Beal. Backups who are younger, quicker. Given Jose's defensive inadequacies, how can we expect him to keep up with these new breed of guards?

However I have to agree with a lot of what Craiger is saying. Prior to getting himself hurt in the Portland game, Lowry was not playing very well and the team was rapidly spiralling out of control. Define it however you like; hero ball, selfish, or whatever, Lowry was still able to post decent numbers for himself but was not playing in a way that was conducive to winning basketball. Their terrible record and the fact that he was called out by his teammates and lumped into the same category as Bargnani following the Denver game speaks volumes.

I'm all for rewarding hardwork, but i think in Jose and Lowry's stage in their careers, they're way past that. Guys like Ed Davis, Acy, Ross, you do have to show them that minutes need to be earned and hardwork pays off. But with Jose and Lowry, theyve been there. They're at the stage where roles have to be defined. Who's the starter and who's the backup. And i also remember Jack Armstrong mentioning during one of the games, sometimes players find it hard when they, or other players, are flip-flopped from being in the second unit, to the starting lineup, then back to being a backup again. It takes time to adjust, because the pace of the game is different when youre a starter vs in the second unit. Plus, Calderon has been with these guys for almost three years. He knows how everybody plays while Lowry, doesnt yet. So if keeps getting shifted from starter to bench to starter, its not only difficulty for him to adapt to other players, but also other players adapting to his style of play hence the "poor performance" if you will. Perfect example was the nets game. Towards the end, Lowry decides to take over the game. Ross and Amir had no clue how to deal with Lowry.

When Calderon took over after that, the team enjoyed a dramatic shift for the better. They scored more and with an efficiency that put them in the top tier of the entire league. They allowed less points to be scored on them. For the first time all season, they enjoyed ANY type of sustained success and appeared to be gaining traction. Yes, I understand the schedule was soft, but the team lost plenty of winnable contests early on in the season with Lowry leading the way. Besides, I think when a young team like the Raptors begin to take care of business in the games that they should, it's a good start.

True. But if you looked at the "winnable" games that Lowry played in that you were referring to like lets say the Bobcats game where they lost by a point, McGuire was in the starting lineup, Calderon was 2 of 8, Kleiza was 0-3, and Amir and Ed played 10mins each. Or the Detroit game, Demar was 2 of 9, Kleiza was 2-8, Ross 0-5. What im saying is its just not Lowry, other player were not contributing.

I think Calderon has earned the right to start for the time being, and I'm not sure why the fans are so against that idea. The concept that players should be given minutes and starting roles based on what they should be doing, their NBA live rating, etc. instead of how they are contributing to a winning basketball situation is what got the Raptors so deeply into the Bargnani fiasco. If the team goes back into the tank and Lowry is outplaying Calderon again then I am all for switching it up and giving the most deserving of the two the starters role. However sometimes I feel like the narrative surrounding each player - Lowry is the pitbull from Philly while Calderon is the soft, European loser - becomes more important to the fans than what is actually happening on the court.

I dont think the Calderon-Lowry situation is comparable to that of Bargnani's situation. Bargnani lacks effort and is in the starting lineup because management still thinks he is the franchise player of this team. Lowry has shown no indication of being a lazy player, instead, he's known to overdo things, as you said, hero ball, and some might not agree but im more happy with that rather than a player who just floats around. And you know he's not in it for individual stats because he's always jawing at the refs and talking to his bigs. He wants to win and seems like getting frustrated of losing.

Yes, it sucks that Colangelo gave up a lottery pick for a player that is currently a backup. That is just another case of terrible asset management from one of the worst GMs in the league. But it is not Calderon's fault, nor is it Lowry's, so trying to allocate playing time based on that is only going to compact the original error.

Thats management's fault. Lowry is not a backup calibre player. Casey turned him into a backup. Im not sure why youre saying they wasted a pick on a "backup" when clearly when Lowry was acquired, he was slated to be the starting PG of this team. Its Casey and BC who's "wasting the pick" if you want to put it that way. Lowry's numbers are definitely not backup numbers, even when he's playing limited minutes.

[Reinholt]

I will say for my argument I didn't bother to look at Lowry's Toronto numbers, because he's been healthy for all of 2 games (and roles for he and Calderon have been jerked around, strength of schedule hasn't evened out yet, and sample sizes are small enough to doubt their validity), but was looking at numbers from the past two full seasons instead, which gives a decent sample size and should be more representative for both players.

Here is what I have for both 10-11 and 11-12 seasons for PER and WS/48:

KL - 16.5, 18.9 PER, .13 and .157 for WS/48
JC - 16.3, 16.7 PER, .085 and .136 WS/48

In each case KL is better. With that said, I think the numbers also substantiate the view that neither is terrible (which is also why I believe JC is a useful player and does have value), and if anyone thinks I have been saying JC is not a usable player, let me dispel that notion. I just think KL is better, younger, and cheaper, but that JC definitely has value.

I agree the ultimate fault is with BC and Casey here. KL and JC don't decide how much they play or what their roles are. I also agree neither of these guys are Bargnani, who is quite possible the least valuable starter in the entire NBA. I do still think KL has not been handled well by Casey, and the roster has not been handled well by Colangelo. The one thing BC could do to force Casey to sort this situation out is trade one of the two. I think JC should be traded, but I think we'd all agree it's just about criminal stupidity not to trade at least one of them at the deadline.

Edit: This is also the classic sign of a bad organization, which is blaming your best players for your problems while enabling your worst. Neither KL nor JC are the issue with the Raptors (and regardless of nuance of opinion between the two, I think everyone can agree they are two of the best three or four players on the Raptors), both should be getting 30+ minutes until one gets traded, and the team should stop making excuses for guys like AB who actively suck.

[BallaBalla]

Lowry's PER is higher than Jose's but the difference is not particularly wide and both are well above average. Calderon's win shares are actually higher than KL's, albeit lower on a per 48 minute basis. Once you get into the metrics that account for Jose's defense... they actually show that Calderon has been a better defender this season than Lowry (Lowry's opponent PER = 19.3 Calderon opponent PER = 15.2). Most of the +/- numbers that I have come across also show that Calderon is doing better in that regard than Lowry this season.

I am not one of the people who thinks Jose is the long term answer at point guard for the Raptors. If he is brought back on a reduced salary for 2-3 years after this one, with the plan for him to be backup, I would be okay with it. I would also be fine with him moving on, and using the cap space to fill other holes on the roster.

However I have to agree with a lot of what Craiger is saying. Prior to getting himself hurt in the Portland game, Lowry was not playing very well and the team was rapidly spiralling out of control. Define it however you like; hero ball, selfish, or whatever, Lowry was still able to post decent numbers for himself but was not playing in a way that was conducive to winning basketball. Their terrible record and the fact that he was called out by his teammates and lumped into the same category as Bargnani following the Denver game speaks volumes.

When Calderon took over after that, the team enjoyed a dramatic shift for the better. They scored more and with an efficiency that put them in the top tier of the entire league. They allowed less points to be scored on them. For the first time all season, they enjoyed ANY type of sustained success and appeared to be gaining traction. Yes, I understand the schedule was soft, but the team lost plenty of winnable contests early on in the season with Lowry leading the way. Besides, I think when a young team like the Raptors begin to take care of business in the games that they should, it's a good start.

I think Calderon has earned the right to start for the time being, and I'm not sure why the fans are so against that idea. The concept that players should be given minutes and starting roles based on what they should be doing, their NBA live rating, etc. instead of how they are contributing to a winning basketball situation is what got the Raptors so deeply into the Bargnani fiasco. If the team goes back into the tank and Lowry is outplaying Calderon again then I am all for switching it up and giving the most deserving of the two the starters role. However sometimes I feel like the narrative surrounding each player - Lowry is the pitbull from Philly while Calderon is the soft, European loser - becomes more important to the fans than what is actually happening on the court.

Yes, it sucks that Colangelo gave up a lottery pick for a player that is currently a backup. That is just another case of terrible asset management from one of the worst GMs in the league. But it is not Calderon's fault, nor is it Lowry's, so trying to allocate playing time based on that is only going to compact the original error.

This is not a question of who should start or how we play with this team today. This is a question of who is better or worth keeping over the long run. I don't think anyone has a problem with Jose starting from the perspective of short term I.e we will be fine if he starts 12 or 15 games on one season

This is a question if the long term. Take Lowry out of the equation for a minute. We have SUBSTANTIAL PROOF that Jose is a fine player, but will not take this group of players to a playoff level. He's at a good level now and should be traded. We lose nothing by trading him

[Hugmenot]

PPretty sure I agreed $12M was an overpayment. That is what I meant by a tough pill to swallow. In other words, I would not pay Lowry $12M per season. My apologies if I was clear on that. The sequence I laid out (in jest) would also not see the Raptors pay KL$12M. He is under contract at a team option of $6.2M next season.

Yes, you stated you would not pay him more than DeRozan earlier this week.

My fault for asking you a question and then making a comment about salary that was not directed at you.

Long weekend here and I am talking the boys to an ACW re-enactment in honor of Robert E Lee's birthday. Fun stuff and they won't even know they will learn a bit of history at the same time!

[akashsingh]

[QUOTE=Hugmenot;178438]Yes, you stated you would not pay him more than DeRozan earlier this week.

My fault for asking you a question and then making a comment about salary that was not directed at you.

Long weekend here and I am talking the boys to an ACW re-enactment in honor of Robert E Lee's birthday. Fun stuff and they won't even know they will learn a bit of history at the same time![/QUOTE]

white player bias, I knew it!!

[Matt52]

Watching him right now against Minnesota. I would prefer Marcus Smart though.

Chad Ford agrees with you:

Rah-Steam (Hackensack, N.J.)


Which college pg's do you like for the draft? Smart, Burke, and Williams look like the top 3 in my opinion!
Chad Ford
(1:38 PM)


I'd say those are the top 3. B.J. Young is in there. C.J. McCollum too if you consider him a point guard. Right now it's a toss-up between Marcus Smart and Michael Carter-Williams for the first PG off the board. Two very different types of players. Both with great strengths and both still have some pretty big holes in their games. Personally, I'm a Marcus Smart fan. I think he has the most NBA potential of any of the PGs in the draft.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat...ider-chad-ford

[Fully]

You guys are right; let's hand Lowry the keys and never look back!

[Fully]

This is not a question of who should start or how we play with this team today. This is a question of who is better or worth keeping over the long run. I don't think anyone has a problem with Jose starting from the perspective of short term I.e we will be fine if he starts 12 or 15 games on one season

This is a question if the long term. Take Lowry out of the equation for a minute. We have SUBSTANTIAL PROOF that Jose is a fine player, but will not take this group of players to a playoff level. He's at a good level now and should be traded. We lose nothing by trading him

Please read what I wrote, I'm saying that Calderon is not the long term answer either.

[big boi]

On the contrary, I think both PGs are good enough as the future PGs of the Raps but keeping both is a waste of resources given where the Raps are.

Calderon is not. Not if you want to have a winning team. He gets chewed up on d by every decent guard in the league. And you can't have that and expect to be or claim to be a defence first or focused team.

[big boi]

Anyone catch Calderon inbound last night that cost us the game? Sure, Anderson got bumped, another blown call, another apology on the way, great. But he had an open man across the court. When there are 2 men on Anderson, what does (should) that tell you? 1) don't try to pass to him between 2 players and the sideline. 2) someone is open