Making the case for continue building than re-building
http://dinonationblog.blogspot.ca/20...ggins-and.html
Nice article i came across on Dino nation blog. Writer is saying that instead of gutting the Raptors and going into tank mode to put themselves in a position to draft Wiggins, why not continue to build and convince Wiggins to sign with the Raptors on his next contract.
Agree or Disagree?
Problem is he would be a restricted free agent. Assuming he is as good as advertised, unless he turned down $80+M to take the qualifying offer, it would be 5 years to sign him. Then, assuming he did not turn down the contract extension, it would be another 4-5 years. Then it would require him leaving money on the table (upwards of $20M).TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote:
I don't feel good about those odds.
"Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."Tim Leiweke
Team ball is always the right thing to do. :-D
Winning the lottery is a huge risk as it requires tanking and luck. And some elite players moved in free agency/trades before they won their first title (Shaq, KG, Allen, Gasol, Lebron, Bosh, Kidd, Drexler for example).
So there is some merit in waiting for the elite talent to come to you, and with Wiggins there is a good chance that he would want to come back home.
However just because he's Canadian means jack sh!t these days. Nash burned us to play for the Lakers and was offered $12M a year at the age of 38.
So either way it's a gamble. The problem is that the Raptors need talent badly. So even if they don't get Wiggins there are a lot of potential studs in the 2014 draft that could end up being elite. So from that perspective taking for '14 still makes a lot more sense.
I don't buy the underlying premise that Toronto would have some sort of home-court advantage in attracting these guys all else being equal.
Two, free agency is a mug's game. You might be able to attract the odd guy here and there but landing free agents is tough. Even if you have a good team. Look at Dallas and its pursuit of Deron Williams last summer. Chicago tried for years to attract a top tier free agent and failed. New York could only land Stoudemire despite being NEW YORK.
The most immediate issue is the reality that this team sucks and doesn't have single player that is an all-star, let alone an elite player. Alas, no one on the current roster has given us any reason to believe this will change anytime soon (other than maybe Val). They need a couple of young guys at this level before they move out rebuilding mode.
What he is proposing is the 2nd option, the 2nd option can always be tried. It does not need to get in the way of the 1st option.
...in fact, my money is the 2nd option will be tried/(used for leverage), regardless, when we get to that juncture.
Tanking/rebuilding now vs signing Wiggins (or some other star FA) later aren't mutually exclusive. You don't have to do one and not the other. In fact its more likely that Toronto will have to be good enough at a later date in order to sign a star FA, which in and of itself may mean tanking now so they are good enough to sign that FA later.
As Matt52 points out, its years before Wiggins would be an unrestricted FA, and if he's good enough to want to take away from another team he'll almost definetely be good enough for that team to want and keep him. The most likely scenario is he wouldn't be available for a minimum for 7 years (and more than likely 8 or 9) after he is drafted, which means in order to sign him thats a 8-10 year wait! There is bound to be multiple other players, whether through the draft or perhaps FA signings (thinking positive even if unlikely) available well before that.
I just want to comment on this because its something I firmly believe. Drafting a stud player is just as 'lucky' (if not less so, specifically for a team like Toronto - from both a market and quality of team view point) as 'buying' one in FA or a trade. They are not readily available on the market, and when they are its almost always on their terms and at a high cost (less so as a FA signing as superstars are always value contracts... but a team will have to sacrifice some other players, ie create cap space, to obtain them that way still). Aside from that all those routes are much more likely than building that elite well built Pistons style team. (atleast if the goal is being a contending team)Winning the lottery is a huge risk as it requires tanking and luck. And some elite players moved in free agency/trades before they won their first title (Shaq, KG, Allen, Gasol, Lebron, Bosh, Kidd, Drexler for example).
So there is some merit in waiting for the elite talent to come to you, and with Wiggins there is a good chance that he would want to come back home.
However just because he's Canadian means jack sh!t these days. Nash burned us to play for the Lakers and was offered $12M a year at the age of 38.
So either way it's a gamble. The problem is that the Raptors need talent badly. So even if they don't get Wiggins there are a lot of potential studs in the 2014 draft that could end up being elite. So from that perspective taking for '14 still makes a lot more sense.
But its a very rare draft when there isn't one, or even multiple, stud(s) available in a draft, even if there almost never more than a few. That doesn't mean Toronto will just draft a stud whatever year they get their high(est) picks, and it may take a number of years to do it, but it is without a shadow of doubt in my mind the more reliable route to take to get a stud. Even if Toronto doesn't draft one through tanking/rebuild, they are building up the assets to potentially trade (even if its unlikely) for one (see Boston Celtics) meaning its offers a bit of a hedge.
As far as I'm concerned, if the goal is to be highly competitive not only in the future but for the long haul, the choice is between playing poker (tanking - drafting - rebuilding) or playing the slots (hoping to build off of just 'winning'). The odds of winning at poker may not be good, but they'll always beat the slot machines.
Last edited by Craiger; Wed Jan 16th, 2013 at 08:05 PM.
I'm a big believer in building your team through the draft from a talent and financial perspective.
Imho it's the only way for the Raps to build a real contender.
You could wait for AW via free agency but we can't forsee that far into the future. What if he's winning championships with his team at the time? Should he be expected to leave to come play back home under those circumstances? Would he even want to at that point?
I don't know who the GM will be going forward but I am hopeful that this person (If its Colangelo I will be quite dissapointed) will tear down the roster and keep the young kids and make a run for a top pick in the 2014 draft.
My only regret is that the process should have begun this year by trading away players not on rookie deals for picks in this upcoming draft and next years. (I include this year becuz adding another rookie this offseason, who you hope the coach will play to get minutes underneath them, will ensure continued losing next year).
I don't see the Raptors having success unless they can draft one star player. They historically haven't spent the big bucks to acquire multiple stars, and I don't expect them to do so in the future. In today's NBA, stars like to play with other stars, and I don't see Toronto luring them unless they have one in house already.
I like the players we have here, but we are clearly lacking that big-time talent to put them into relevance in the league. I say go all in for 2014.
The post Bosh re-building process began 3 years ago and it seems to be going OK. I think it(re-building) should continue and things will fall in place. To focus on something(Wiggins) that may not happen is pointless. The focus should be on making the team a winning team and thereby an attractive destination for top free agents irrespective of their nationality. If a consistent winner is built, it is possible.
Attitude Is A Choice.
It's too late to rebuild again so get those thoughts out of your head. Even BC can't sell that to fans, media, BELL/ROGERS. The only way the team will go into a complete rebuild is if BC gets fired and a new GM with the conviction to start from scratch is brought in.
Colangelo never rebuilt.
Bargnani (7th season with the team) - Demar (4th) - Jose (8th) - Amir (4th). Those 4 were all significant players during, or at the end of, the Bosh era. They still are today.
Since then Colangelo has added 3 rookies (2 of them just last season), Lowry, Fields, Anderson + random irrelevant bench players.
Keeping the core of a team intact while losing games because they aren't very good, and then randomly adding peices is not a rebuild. Its a foolish retool.
I agree, which is why I'm saying that he can't start a complete rebuild now. He's in way too deep to stop everything and start completely over. If a complete rebuild were to happen it would have to be a new GM doing it.
I am all for the continuation of the rebuild.
Reality is the Raptors don't have enough of what is needed for them to add legit talent that matters: 1) draft picks, and 2) assets for a trade.
Raptors are in a tough spot right now. Best of the worst is not enticing to free agents and best of the worst is not going to land you a high draft pick either.
I know I am a broken record but taking on some short term bad contracts (i.e. no longer than 2 seasons after this) for prospects or picks is the best way to go.... if those deals are out there, of course.
The Good thing about the Raptors current situation is they have awesome role players. I think bigs like Amir and ED (and as a third string, even Acy is showing promise - as a 3rd string!), wings like Fields, DD, and AA, and PG's like Calderon and Lucas (like Acy as a 3rd string) are pretty good. I think those guys could help just about any contending team as a role player - of course contending teams are going to have much more talented players leading the way...... And coming full circle you need to hit the jackpot in the draft or cash out hoarded picks, rookie contracts/prospects, and/or expiring deals.
"Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."Tim Leiweke
Perhaps the plan is to build a deep team so that a free agent biggie will be willing to sign, probably thinking of the chance to make a name for himself as a franchise player. This seems a pretty good strategy to me.
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