http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=652

http://www.sloansportsconference.com...on-Making1.pdf

Really interesting read and equally fun presentation, lots of non-raptors things to take out of it, but the thing I found most interesting (especially given our perceived current plight with guys like Demar, Rudy and Anderson on the roster) is that overshooting isn't nearly as big of a problem as it's made out to be.

As he mentions, while you ideally want a player to refrain from shooting when the value of that shot is lower than the value of continuing the possession, you also see a steep decrease in the expected points per possession as the shot clock approaches zero.

In other words, even if Rudy is taking his fair share of 'forced' shots (as conventionally understood), this is probably better than dumping the ball with less than 10 seconds on the shot-clock in an attempt to avoid such shots . The reason being that the likelyhood of a turnover, shot-clock violation, even worse shot skyrockets and the opportunity for a FG, offensive rebound etc. plummets.

So while I obviously wish Rudy's efficiency ratings were higher, I'm not sure that this statistic is as problematic as we're making it out to be. As Mr. Goldman says: undershooting is much more of a problem than overshooting.

One last observation, not really groundbreaking by any means:
NBA experience is correlated with closer adherence to optimality for both dynamic and allocative efficiency. Salary is positively correlated with departures from allocative efficiency, consistent with the idea that lower talent line-ups have less margin for error.
More importantly though, INCONSISTENT with the notion that allowing a player (*cough* Bargnani *cough*) to play through mistakes will ultimately increase his effeciency and productiveness. Can we put that myth to bed already?