View Poll Results: Would you swap Ross for Davis in the Gay trade if possible?

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Thread: Everything Rudy Gay

  1. #361
    Raptors Republic Starter themasao's Avatar
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    Default Rudy is an 'overshooter' -- but is that really a problem?

    http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=652

    http://www.sloansportsconference.com...on-Making1.pdf

    Really interesting read and equally fun presentation, lots of non-raptors things to take out of it, but the thing I found most interesting (especially given our perceived current plight with guys like Demar, Rudy and Anderson on the roster) is that overshooting isn't nearly as big of a problem as it's made out to be.

    As he mentions, while you ideally want a player to refrain from shooting when the value of that shot is lower than the value of continuing the possession, you also see a steep decrease in the expected points per possession as the shot clock approaches zero.

    In other words, even if Rudy is taking his fair share of 'forced' shots (as conventionally understood), this is probably better than dumping the ball with less than 10 seconds on the shot-clock in an attempt to avoid such shots . The reason being that the likelyhood of a turnover, shot-clock violation, even worse shot skyrockets and the opportunity for a FG, offensive rebound etc. plummets.

    So while I obviously wish Rudy's efficiency ratings were higher, I'm not sure that this statistic is as problematic as we're making it out to be. As Mr. Goldman says: undershooting is much more of a problem than overshooting.

    One last observation, not really groundbreaking by any means:
    NBA experience is correlated with closer adherence to optimality for both dynamic and allocative efficiency. Salary is positively correlated with departures from allocative efficiency, consistent with the idea that lower talent line-ups have less margin for error.
    More importantly though, INCONSISTENT with the notion that allowing a player (*cough* Bargnani *cough*) to play through mistakes will ultimately increase his effeciency and productiveness. Can we put that myth to bed already?

  2. #362
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Quote themasao wrote: View Post
    http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=652

    http://www.sloansportsconference.com...on-Making1.pdf

    Really interesting read and equally fun presentation, lots of non-raptors things to take out of it, but the thing I found most interesting (especially given our perceived current plight with guys like Demar, Rudy and Anderson on the roster) is that overshooting isn't nearly as big of a problem as it's made out to be.

    As he mentions, while you ideally want a player to refrain from shooting when the value of that shot is lower than the value of continuing the possession, you also see a steep decrease in the expected points per possession as the shot clock approaches zero.

    In other words, even if Rudy is taking his fair share of 'forced' shots (as conventionally understood), this is probably better than dumping the ball with less than 10 seconds on the shot-clock in an attempt to avoid such shots . The reason being that the likelyhood of a turnover, shot-clock violation, even worse shot skyrockets and the opportunity for a FG, offensive rebound etc. plummets.

    So while I obviously wish Rudy's efficiency ratings were higher, I'm not sure that this statistic is as problematic as we're making it out to be. As Mr. Goldman says: undershooting is much more of a problem than overshooting.

    One last observation, not really groundbreaking by any means:


    More importantly though, INCONSISTENT with the notion that allowing a player (*cough* Bargnani *cough*) to play through mistakes will ultimately increase his effeciency and productiveness. Can we put that myth to bed already?
    Lets leave the Bargnani portion out of this thread, but perhaps it's a discussion to be had in the "Everything Bargnani" thread...

  3. #363
    Raptors Republic Starter themasao's Avatar
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Lets leave the Bargnani portion out of this thread, but perhaps it's a discussion to be had in the "Everything Bargnani" thread...
    Sure. That's the only reason I didn't post in the Rudy Gay thread in the first place -- more than one over-shooter on this team! Makes sense to merge though I suppose.

  4. #364
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Quote themasao wrote: View Post
    Sure. That's the only reason I didn't post in the Rudy Gay thread in the first place -- more than one over-shooter on this team! Makes sense to merge though I suppose.
    Yes, especially since this "Everything Gay" thread was started from several merged threads about his shooting %... seemed appropriate, with recognition that the study could be applied to multiple Raptors players... that in itself could be indicative of the Raptors's problems, rather than any single player being a/the problem!

  5. #365
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    haha love the pic! lol such a stupid/funny movie!


    Seriously though, I know people are concerned about overpaying Gay - rightfully so - but I wonder what the opportunity cost is worth to BC and the Raptors organization, as a preventative step to avoid having Lowry and Gay both walk away from the franchise as free agents? Not only would the Raps lose both players, Lowry after next season and Gay after the following season, but it would have cost them Calderon, Davis, Forbes, 1st round pick and 2nd round pick. That's a huge price to pay just to have the franchise devestated by yet another big name player(s).

    So the question becomes: What is avoiding that franchise humiliation and keeping a good young core together worth, and is it more/less than the [potential] overpayment of Rudy Gay?
    I think the idea that the team chooses between losing both and being 'humiliated' or keeping both and overpaying (atleast) one, and having a 'good young' core is more than a little framed.

    When I look at those 2 choices I see a choice between long term mediocracy and the real potential to rebuild and a long term shot at something more. I'll take option 2 every day of the week.

  6. #366
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    I don't think he turns down the option. In fact the Raptors can't sign him to an extension should he opt out of the player option to anything starting less than the option year:



    The most Gay could be extended this summer is 2 seasons. The $17 and $19M from current deal would be guaranteed. Would he take 2 years and $26M guaranteed? Would he he risk missing that money 2 years out with an injury? Would he want to wait until his current contract ends to get 4 years at 28 versus taking a 2 year extension this summer and looking for his likely final big money contract at 30?

    I think Gay will play out his contract and pick up his player option.

    The Raps with BC as GM will always be there to overpay him. That's what he does. He's already the "face of the franchise" (whatever that means. wins don't matter anymore as long as you can say I'm the best player on a team, you get paid around these parts)

    If he waits until he is a FA he also has the option of signing a longterm deal elsewhere for probably less money than with the Raps, but with a possible team that is a contender or he can help turn into a contender.

    Either way I think picking up the player option gives him more options going forward.

    What about Lowry's upcoming extenstion? When will the talks start for this? Colangelo is about to send this team into oblivion. Flying by the seat of his pants with no plan. No justification needed for the moves because he has his 2 hollow EOY awards sitting nearby to remind him of how great he is, or better yet, once was.

  7. #367
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    I think the idea that the team chooses between losing both and being 'humiliated' or keeping both and overpaying (atleast) one, and having a 'good young' core is more than a little framed.

    When I look at those 2 choices I see a choice between long term mediocracy and the real potential to rebuild and a long term shot at something more. I'll take option 2 every day of the week.
    Framed for sure, but I can't help but think that it could be the same way BC's framing it. It's not a black & white decision (or shouldn't be), since there's 2 years of 'gray area' before Gay's contract expires. However, I could certainly understand it if that's the way BC and/or the franchise are viewing their options.

  8. #368
    Raptors Republic Rookie badbob's Avatar
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    If Rudy really want sto stay with this club and make it a better one for the future of making the playoffs we do need more talent. If he gets a max deal then we don't have the money to secure more talent and we will never make the playoffs this way of giving him a max deal. I say he takes less money with the idea of Colangelo going out after more talent to help the club with making the playoffs next year. Something in the value of Milsap or Jefferson; we do need a scoring power forward that can post up and get a lot of rebounds and give the Raptor's a tough presence underneath!! So I say give him an extention but not for max money!!

  9. #369
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Framed for sure, but I can't help but think that it could be the same way BC's framing it. It's not a black & white decision (or shouldn't be), since there's 2 years of 'gray area' before Gay's contract expires. However, I could certainly understand it if that's the way BC and/or the franchise are viewing their options.
    Sure, but this discussion stemming from the quote isn't 'should Colangelo consider his options'. Its a very precise, should BC extend Gay discussion. I think you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who didn't think a team should constantly view their options.

  10. #370
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    Sure, but this discussion stemming from the quote isn't 'should Colangelo consider his options'. Its a very precise, should BC extend Gay discussion. I think you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who didn't think a team should constantly view their options.
    True and I was just suggesting that there very well could be options that are dependent (either real or assumed or both) on the team committing to this core (ie: Gay being the biggest domino) long-term. Lowry (expiring) and Gay (player option for 2014-15) could both be free agents after next season. Who knows what conversation their people have already had with BC, regarding the future and the impact such decisions could have on their player's decision-making, with BC then considering the impact various moves would have on the fan-base, media, rest of the league, his bosses, etc... There are lots of options, but none of them ever get decided on in a vacuum and my assumption is that we fans only know the tip of the iceberg, when it comes to franchise strategy.

  11. #371
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    Quote sleepz wrote: View Post
    I think Gay will play out his contract and pick up his player option.

    The Raps with BC as GM will always be there to overpay him. That's what he does. He's already the "face of the franchise" (whatever that means. wins don't matter anymore as long as you can say I'm the best player on a team, you get paid around these parts)

    If he waits until he is a FA he also has the option of signing a longterm deal elsewhere for probably less money than with the Raps, but with a possible team that is a contender or he can help turn into a contender.

    Either way I think picking up the player option gives him more options going forward.

    What about Lowry's upcoming extenstion? When will the talks start for this? Colangelo is about to send this team into oblivion. Flying by the seat of his pants with no plan. No justification needed for the moves because he has his 2 hollow EOY awards sitting nearby to remind him of how great he is, or better yet, once was.
    I'm not sure BC really regressed, as much as he always did things like this, it just worked out a couple of times for him.

    All I know is we are being put in a situation by him where our only options are:

    1. overpay rudy gay and be a good team but not a great one
    2. wait on rudy gay and hope that he plays badly enough not to warrant max money (which for Toronto would have to be pretty bad)
    3. lose rudy gay and give up ED and jose for nothing

    What's great about your Lowry comment is that we have no idea how valuable he considers him.

    All I know is that the Bargnani, Calderon, and Derozan contracts in the past make me VERY afraid of what he plans on signing Lowry for.

    At the end of the day, the only way that this turns into a really special team is for players to play far beyond their potential or develop some sort of tight chemistry with each other like Boston or SA where guys play better as a team.

    That's just the way BC drew it up

  12. #372
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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    That would be a fair deal, but I just don't see it happening when NBA contracts are already fully guaranteed. Why would a player give up guaranteed money for possible money? Plus things like All-star appearances are partially out of their hands. Fan voting, injuries, coaching are just some of the factors out of the players control that could cost them $$$.
    FWIW I know Al Horford has incentives up to $7 mil on his contract if he makes various all NBA teams.
    Eh follow my TWITTER!

  13. #373
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    I really cannot see MLSE agreeing to extensions for Gay or Lowry. These guys are both experiments. They were picked up because they did not get along with their former teams, and have a rep for being inconsistent and temperamental. Do they have the potential to get over this an play great team basketball? Sure, but we won't know until sometime next season. To date, Gay has shown exactly what is reputation is -- he can be great, he can hit clutch shots at the end of the game, but there are also games where he sucks. We should not believe his is the superstar that he being made out to be. That is the same that happened with Bosh and Bargs. Gay is the 2nd or 3rd best guy on a championship team. Actually, Derozen has impressed me more, he keeps learning the game, and is dedicated to getting better. I think he has a much better chance of being an all star than Gay does.

    For MLSE, I would think they want to see how Bryan's experiment is going to work. See how they play in the remaining games of the season. See how they play at the beginning of next season. Maybe Gay does have it in him to be a team leader, but maybe not. If Gay and Lowry start being the players they can be, and the team is looking like a playoff team, even a potential championship team then talk about keeping them here. If Gay is the undisputed leader of the team, give him a max contract. If not pay him to what he deserves. If he is the 3rd best, make it clear that bringing in a #1 is a priority, and that the team needs the money to do that.

    If on the other hand, they go back to their selfish ways, then bring in a new GM before the next trade deadline, trade Lowry's expiring contract and possibly Gay. And start building a real championship team without cutting corners.

    There is no rush. We have time to see whether Gay and Lowry can live up to be the basketball players they think they are.

  14. #374
    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote RapRepRip wrote: View Post
    I really cannot see MLSE agreeing to extensions for Gay or Lowry. These guys are both experiments. They were picked up because they did not get along with their former teams, and have a rep for being inconsistent and temperamental. Do they have the potential to get over this an play great team basketball? Sure, but we won't know until sometime next season. To date, Gay has shown exactly what is reputation is -- he can be great, he can hit clutch shots at the end of the game, but there are also games where he sucks. We should not believe his is the superstar that he being made out to be. That is the same that happened with Bosh and Bargs. Gay is the 2nd or 3rd best guy on a championship team. Actually, Derozen has impressed me more, he keeps learning the game, and is dedicated to getting better. I think he has a much better chance of being an all star than Gay does.

    For MLSE, I would think they want to see how Bryan's experiment is going to work. See how they play in the remaining games of the season. See how they play at the beginning of next season. Maybe Gay does have it in him to be a team leader, but maybe not. If Gay and Lowry start being the players they can be, and the team is looking like a playoff team, even a potential championship team then talk about keeping them here. If Gay is the undisputed leader of the team, give him a max contract. If not pay him to what he deserves. If he is the 3rd best, make it clear that bringing in a #1 is a priority, and that the team needs the money to do that.

    If on the other hand, they go back to their selfish ways, then bring in a new GM before the next trade deadline, trade Lowry's expiring contract and possibly Gay. And start building a real championship team without cutting corners.

    There is no rush. We have time to see whether Gay and Lowry can live up to be the basketball players they think they are.
    Hmmmmmmm. This is the first time I'm hearing of this. I know Lowry has some issues with the coaches sometimes - hasn't had any with Casey as far as I know - and Rudy is said to have a great attitude, and gets along well with his teammates...
    Explain?

  15. #375
    Raptors Republic All-Star Miekenstien's Avatar
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    I don't see How the same rushed shot in two different scenarios makes one better than the other. I think that most plays a team runs are not set up to score in the final seconds of the shot clock which shows teams that run a good efficient system will of course have better scoring chances. these will outweigh the horrid shot selection of some players who shoot early in the clock

    a bad shot is a bad shot to me.

  16. #376
    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote Miekenstien wrote: View Post
    I don't see How the same rushed shot in two different scenarios makes one better than the other. I think that most plays a team runs are not set up to score in the final seconds of the shot clock which shows teams that run a good efficient system will of course have better scoring chances. these will outweigh the horrid shot selection of some players who shoot early in the clock

    a bad shot is a bad shot to me.
    Depends really. It largely depends on where you want the player to get the shots, and how he's being guarded, how late/early in the possession, etc. What do you define a bad shot?

  17. #377
    Raptors Republic All-Star JimiCliff's Avatar
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    Quote BallaBalla wrote: View Post
    I'm not sure BC really regressed, as much as he always did things like this, it just worked out a couple of times for him.

    All I know is we are being put in a situation by him where our only options are:

    1. overpay rudy gay and be a good team but not a great one
    2. wait on rudy gay and hope that he plays badly enough not to warrant max money (which for Toronto would have to be pretty bad)
    3. lose rudy gay and give up ED and jose for nothing

    What's great about your Lowry comment is that we have no idea how valuable he considers him.

    All I know is that the Bargnani, Calderon, and Derozan contracts in the past make me VERY afraid of what he plans on signing Lowry for.

    At the end of the day, the only way that this turns into a really special team is for players to play far beyond their potential or develop some sort of tight chemistry with each other like Boston or SA where guys play better as a team.

    That's just the way BC drew it up
    Don't forget Amir. His contract looks good now, but it could have been for even less. I remember reading an interview with Amir where he talked about how he went into the contract session with a figure in mind, and then Colangelo throws out a figure that's was something like 7 mil more than what he would have accpeted...

  18. #378
    Raptors Republic Starter themasao's Avatar
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    Quote Miekenstien wrote: View Post
    I don't see How the same rushed shot in two different scenarios makes one better than the other. I think that most plays a team runs are not set up to score in the final seconds of the shot clock which shows teams that run a good efficient system will of course have better scoring chances. these will outweigh the horrid shot selection of some players who shoot early in the clock

    a bad shot is a bad shot to me.
    Not really sure what you mean by this. Reuben mentioned that it depends what you mean by 'bad shot', and I think I agree:

    In one sense, there's nothing inherently bad about taking a shot early in the shot clock; in fact, what 'time' you shoot at says nothing, on its own, about the quality of the shot (in terms of how open you are, how close you are to the bucket, how good of a shooter you are etc.).

    It's true that in this same sense, a closely guarded long two is a bad shot no matter when it's taken.

    When you talk about the "horrid shot selection of players who shoot early in the clock" I think you're confusing two senses of 'bad shot'. Goldman says that shots taken earlier in the shot clock tend actually to be better shots than those taken late in the shot clock. He's not saying that the earlier you shoot the better your shot will be, but rather the longer you hold on to the ball, the lower your expected point output is.

    So yes, in a way, a bad shot is a bad shot -- but that's not really the point. The point is that when Rudy fires a contested two with 10 on the shot-clock, we get pissed at him and we really shouldn't be. The value of that shot is actually higher than the value of him kicking it back out and continuing the possession.

    Counter-intuitive, perhaps, but that's the whole point of analytics -- if they didn't tell us things we couldn't see with our own eyes, they'd be pretty redundant.

  19. #379
    Raptors Republic All-Star Soft Euro's Avatar
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    Quote themasao wrote: View Post
    Not really sure what you mean by this. Reuben mentioned that it depends what you mean by 'bad shot', and I think I agree:

    In one sense, there's nothing inherently bad about taking a shot early in the shot clock; in fact, what 'time' you shoot at says nothing, on its own, about the quality of the shot (in terms of how open you are, how close you are to the bucket, how good of a shooter you are etc.).

    It's true that in this same sense, a closely guarded long two is a bad shot no matter when it's taken.

    When you talk about the "horrid shot selection of players who shoot early in the clock" I think you're confusing two senses of 'bad shot'. Goldman says that shots taken earlier in the shot clock tend actually to be better shots than those taken late in the shot clock. He's not saying that the earlier you shoot the better your shot will be, but rather the longer you hold on to the ball, the lower your expected point output is.

    So yes, in a way, a bad shot is a bad shot -- but that's not really the point. The point is that when Rudy fires a contested two with 10 on the shot-clock, we get pissed at him and we really shouldn't be. The value of that shot is actually higher than the value of him kicking it back out and continuing the possession.

    Counter-intuitive, perhaps, but that's the whole point of analytics -- if they didn't tell us things we couldn't see with our own eyes, they'd be pretty redundant.
    So, how does Gay do on those shots and how does it compare with e.g. our efficiency when shooting in the last 10 seconds. So far, I've seen no analysis about that (and that's the whole point of analytics).

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    Quote RaptorReuben wrote: View Post
    Hmmmmmmm. This is the first time I'm hearing of this. I know Lowry has some issues with the coaches sometimes - hasn't had any with Casey as far as I know - and Rudy is said to have a great attitude, and gets along well with his teammates...
    Explain?
    Lowry has issues with coaches, and from what I understand Memphis had issues with Gay. Wasn't it Gay that said there was nothing good about Memphis soon after he got here? So, my point is they have this history. The hope is that they get over that, and learn to listen well, and help the others along so they can be a great team. I really hope that is that is the way it will work out, however I am not convinced that this is the case. Only time will tell. Certainly we will not know before mid-next-season. If it works, the Raps are going to be a competitive team and should talk about extending their contracts. If not, we will have a new GM, is what I think.

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