octothorp wrote:
With any of these pending UFAs, it would be a gamble to hope that you can use bird rights to resign them in the summer. That's a risk I might take, depending on the cost to us.
Let's say the Raptors trade for Millsap now, with the intention of signing him for $12 million in the offseason. A lot of that has to do with how few teams will be far enough under the cap to sign these guys. If the cap stays at $58 million, and the luxury tax stays at $70 million, and the apron stays at $74 million, the following teams are far enough under the cap to make a $12 million signing without a sign-and-trade:
Clippers (if they don't resign Paul)
Spurs (if they don't resign Ginobli)
Philadelphia (if they don't resign Bynum)
Cleveland
Detroit
Atlanta
Utah
Milwaukee
New Orleans
Sacramento
Charlotte
Houston
Of these teams, Utah, Detroit, and New Orleans are definitely not looking for a starting PF. Clippers and Spurs probably make internal signing that take themselves out of the running. That means Cleveland, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Sacramento, Charlotte, and Houston are the teams that might be in the market for his services. I'd say that Cleveland, Houston, and maybe Atlanta are the only ones that are arguably more desirable destinations than Toronto. Given that there's a whole host of free agent big men on the market, there's a reasonable chance that any of those teams go with other options.
If Millsap does not want to stay in Toronto, there are several more teams that could acquire Millsap using a sign-and-trade... places that couldn't sign Millsap under the cap, but could fit him within their apron such as Minnesota, Phoenix, Dallas, Indiana if they don't resign West, etc... infact anyone currently under the apron of $74 million, provided they're willing to send back matching salary. In a worst-case scenario where Millsap doesn't resign with us, there's a reasonable chance that we'd be able to get something back for him via a sign-and-trade.
So with all that in mind, I don't hate the idea of trading for one of these big UFAs now and taking our chances at retaining them over the summer.