Bargnani for... Boozer?!?!

[white men can't jump]

I'm assuming they are including the Lucas/Robinson portion of the deal to help minimize the Boozer/Bargnani salary discrepancy (from Toronto's perspective), while still enabling Chicago to get below the luxury tax threshhold. I don't think the Bulls really care about either Lucas/Robinson, since both will be gone after this season - they have Rose coming back, Hinrich under contract for next season and Teague developing as Hinrich's eventual successor.

I still don't like it, even if a 1st round pick is included from Chicago.

Neither do I...the 1st rd pick would just make it more worthy of consideration. I see no reason to rush into this deal, and again, think that it will still be there in the summer if it ends up being the only possibility.

[tenforthewin]

No Booze but Millsap and J.Smith, please! Maybe Ilyasova and Maybe Emeka Okafor

[Chr1s1anL]

Just do it today so we get use to the idea. This last stretch is very important. The sooner the better.

[Matt52]

*I* never said amnesty him. I just said don't trade him for Boozer. In your frustration over your inability to convince me that Boozer is worth 'just getting rid of Bargs', you're not reading very carefully, or are willfully ignoring my point. And yes, you've presented a lot of info to suggest why Boozer vs. Bargs is a Boozer win. That's not the point here.

Are you looking to replace Bargnani's production (which you continue to argue is non-existent) or are you looking to improve the team? Boozer in brings short-term gain only, contract notwithstanding, which I argue will be a negative longer term regardless of cap impact.

I think you're just in a hurry to get rid of Bargs. That's a bad objective, IMO, because my argument is that, while he's eating $10M in salary for the rest of the year, he's NOT having any other significant negative impact on the team, the development of younger players, etc. You can continue to argue that Boozer won't have any other negative impact, either, and that's where, yes, we will agree to disagree.

Again, to be clear on MY perpsective on this for the last time: Move Bargnani. But move him for something that doesn't have massive potential to make this team worse over the long haul, not better.

Look back. I addressed first bold.

I've addressed the second bold as well.

[octothorp]

Yeah, for me Boozer is pretty-much the worst of all rumoured options. However, he's also the most realistic of all rumoured options. At a minimum, I'd want a draft pick back, and even then it would be tough to swallow.

The PG side of it makes it even more difficult to evaluate for me... Robinson is one of my least favorite players in the league. I'd be spending the rest of the season hoping that the Raptors don't offer him a new contract in the summer.

[jimmie]

Look back. I addressed first bold.

I've addressed the second bold as well.

I know you've addressed it. I just don't agree.

Toronto needs Boozer less than it needs no-Bargnani, IMO. That's my point. We don't agree. This isn't about convincing one another that the other is correct. We have different opinions. It's OK.

[Chr1s1anL]

Obviously a lot of you have forgotten....Free cheese

[Matt52]

Well, I think Boozer (the player, v.s the dollars) is not very good, and a poor fit for this team as (it seems to be being) built.

How? Team appears to be playing slower with more ISO.

- He will take floor time away for Valanciunas. This one is an obvious drawback.

Really? Boozer plays PF and 29/30 mins a game. JV starts at C and lets say Casey gives him 35 mins (which would be among league leaders) that still leaves 31 mins at PF/C which Amir can play both.... not to mention injuries, foul trouble, matchups, etc.

- He will take floor time away from Amir. This one depends on your appraisal of Amir, but I've said before I think he's mjore than adequate as a starting 4, and a better fit for this team.

You need more than adequate starters in the league. Amir coming off the bench is something just about every team in the league would love to have.

- He will require (and likely desire) significant touches to be productive at the offensive end. That means effort making his need for the ball fit with Gay, Lowry, and Derozan, who are clearly seen as more long-term pieces. It would mean a shift in their current schemes to a more interior-centric offense. Not that that's a bad thing, but I think it's a bad thing when the player you're moving things around for will not be here in 3 years when the rest of them are expecting to be competing for a championship.

Is this Boozer or Bargnani? He will need less touches than Bargnani on offense. He also gets 2.5 more offensive opportunities on his own per game than Bargnani by hitting offensive glass. He currently plays on a team where, when Rose is healthy, is a 3rd option. No reason he can't do the same in Toronto.

- He is an albatross on defense. He's never been a good defender, and now he's 31, and likely to be difficult to motivate if he gets traded to Toronto.

Bargnani is a mega-albatross on defense. He's never been an average defender, and now he's 27, and likely to get motivated unless he is traded from Toronto because he clearly has no motivation in Toronto now. See what I did there? I stated the truth in the beginning and made shit up at the end but still managed to finish with a truth. This boo-hoo attitude of a guy not willing to try in Toronto is bullshit and wreaks of years of Raptor insecurity.

- Now for the contract. When he's in his final year, at 34 years of age, do you think he's going to be any easier to move than Bargnani? You'd basically be trading one useless, difficult-to-move contract for another. Any discussion of this trade hinges on the ability to maximize that asset. If you can't move him for something -- same as is being discussed with AB now -- and he doesn't significantly improve the team now without hamstringing it after he leaves, then that's bad asset management. And I'm very skeptical of him having any more value in 3 years than Bargs has now.

He will be 33 when his contract is up and has just 2 seasons left on his contract. He is still better than Bargnani.

- None of this is touching on possible chemistry issues. He'd be leaving, against his will, from a team with championship aspirations (once Rose returns) to go to a developing team that he knows he's a gap-filler on. He's been noted throughout his career for being kinda lazy and apathetic. He's never been a "closer" or big-game player, but he might get delusions of grandeur in Toronto. I'm not saying any of these things are guaranteed to happen, but they are a distinct possibility which, when coupled with my other concerns noted above, make me very wary.

Chemistry is bullshit. Talent matters. The Lakers won championships with guys hating each other. Guys liking each other is great but it is not necessary. I don't like all the people I work with but we are still successful in our industry. I am also glad to see you are not saying any of these things are guaranteed because it sounds like you are full of shit - seriously. Statistical evidence please. Boozer has been a part of plus .500 teams since 2005/06 and has been in the playoffs since 2006/07.

Again, I'm evaluating this *solely* on what would be coming to Toronto, not what would be going out. I would never make a desperation deal to move a player unless his presence has a significant negative impact on the rest of the team.

The last 4-5 seasons is not enough to get you to see the significant negative impact Bargnani has had on the Raptors? Commentators, who are paid by team ownership, calling him out doesn't spell it out? The GM calling him out doesn't spell it out? Teammates pissed off with his one dimensional, ineffective play is not spelling it out?

[Matt52]

I know you've addressed it. I just don't agree.

Toronto needs Boozer less than it needs no-Bargnani, IMO. That's my point. We don't agree. This isn't about convincing one another that the other is correct. We have different opinions. It's OK.

You can continue to tell me the sky is violet but it doesn't make it true. Statistical evidence mixed in with CBA reality says you are wrong.

Bargnani/full MLE (4yr/$20)

vs.

Boozer/mini-MLE (3yr/$9M)



Who are the Raptors going to sign in free agency at the difference of $2M per season and one extra year that will result in a swing of 4.6WS with a slight increase per48mins in scoring (+1.3), rebounding (+8.5 = +6.0 defensive, +2.5 offensive), assists (+1.0), and TS% (+1.2) PLUS the added production of the player on the mini-MLE.



More than willing to agree to disagree especially when you've brought nothing to the discussion other than unfounded opinions of, as you admit, what might be or could happen.

[thead]

How? Team appears to be playing slower with more ISO....

I admire your dedication to education. I would just summarize everything like so

Boozer = Better Than Bargnani (short term 1yr - 2yr advantage more money that you don't pay)

Illyasova = Better Than Bargnani (long term 1yr - 10yr advantage less money that you don't pay)

Gasol = Better Than Bargnani (short term 1yr advantage even MORE money that you don't pay) (up to 5 yrs if he resigns)

Best Option Illysova
Better Option Gasol
Still Kinda Good Option Boozer
Not An Option Bargnani


I don't know how ANYONE using either stats, the eye test, advanced stats or METRO horoscope can't see this.

[bobbybutler]

lol - it is like watching Bargnani minus the ability to rebound and score on the block.

Can't get rebounds on made shots. 30 minutes of lazy defense(Boozer) is worse than 15 of lazy defense(Bargnani). 5 minutes of lazy defense(Amir) is better.

http://www.hoopdata.com/teamadvancedstats.aspx

As of February 10 the Raptors are 23rd in Defensive Rating, 25 before the trade, 30th before Andrea's injury. 24th in Blocks. 29th in Charges. 19th in Steals. 14th in Defensive rebounding rate. 10th in Offensive rating, 12th before the trade, 19th before the injury. How does Boozer make the defense better?

Defense wins championships. Offense gets you free pizza.

[Axel]

Chemistry is bullshit. Talent matters. The Lakers won championships with guys hating each other. Guys liking each other is great but it is not necessary. I don't like all the people I work with but we are still successful in our industry. I am also glad to see you are not saying any of these things are guaranteed because it sounds like you are full of shit - seriously. Statistical evidence please. Boozer has been a part of plus .500 teams since 2005/06 and has been in the playoffs since 2006/07.

Agree. We don't need to worry about chemistry because we aren't very good. You only need to worry about chemistry when you are a legit title contender and are moving around minor pieces. Chemistry (and familiarity) is important for separating the elite teams in a 7 game series. The Raps are nowhere near needing to worry about chemistry yet.

[Chr1s1anL]

Here he is against RR #1 option

[thead]

I did not include Millsap because any trade requires three teams to snag him

[Matt52]

Can't get rebounds on made shots. 30 minutes of lazy defense(Boozer) is worse than 15 of lazy defense(Bargnani). 5 minutes of lazy defense(Amir) is better.

http://www.hoopdata.com/teamadvancedstats.aspx

As of February 10 the Raptors are 23rd in Defensive Rating, 25 before the trade, 30th before Andrea's injury. 24th in Blocks. 29th in Charges. 19th in Steals. 14th in Defensive rebounding rate. 10th in Offensive rating, 12th before the trade, 19th before the injury. How does Boozer make the defense better?

Defense wins championships. Offense gets you free pizza.

Funny that Boozer is playing 30 mins per game on a team that is 3rd in opp/PPG and 4th in defRtg.

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

Can't get rebounds on made shots. 30 minutes of lazy defense(Boozer) is worse than 15 of lazy defense(Bargnani). 5 minutes of lazy defense(Amir) is better.

http://www.hoopdata.com/teamadvancedstats.aspx

As of February 10 the Raptors are 23rd in Defensive Rating, 25 before the trade, 30th before Andrea's injury. 24th in Blocks. 29th in Charges. 19th in Steals. 14th in Defensive rebounding rate. 10th in Offensive rating, 12th before the trade, 19th before the injury. How does Boozer make the defense better?

Defense wins championships. Offense gets you free pizza.

Funny that Boozer is playing 30 mins per game on a team that is 3rd in opp/PPG and 4th in defRtg.

And whats funnier, is he outlined the Raptors statistical rankings defensively, then asks How Boozer makes defense better. Shouldnt you have outlined Chicago's statistics instead?

The Raptors are currently 25th in the league in rebounding. Boozer is averaging almost 10 rebs a game despite playing alongside Noah who gets 11rebs a game playing 38mins a game. He's instantly going to be the Raptors best rebounder if he joins the team.

Defense? his DRating is currently at 100, only 3 pts lower then Noah who is the Bulls best defender. Boozer's defense has steadily improved throughout the years.

[Matt52]

I admire your dedication to education. I would just summarize everything like so

Boozer = Better Than Bargnani (short term 1yr - 2yr advantage more money that you don't pay)

Illyasova = Better Than Bargnani (long term 1yr - 10yr advantage less money that you don't pay)

Gasol = Better Than Bargnani (short term 1yr advantage even MORE money that you don't pay) (up to 5 yrs if he resigns)

Best Option Illysova
Better Option Gasol
Still Kinda Good Option Boozer
Not An Option Bargnani


I don't know how ANYONE using either stats, the eye test, advanced stats or METRO horoscope can't see this.

I agree with your flow there. Problem is Bargnani does not appear to be capable of returning a desirable asset on his own (and Ilyasova and Gasol are desirable). So in that case the Raps are left to just get a better asset. If I have the choice between 2 undesirable assets, I'm going to take the better one.

I would also add that amnestying Bargnani is a stupid option.

[Axel]

And whats funnier, is he outlined the Raptors statistical rankings defensively, then asks How Boozer makes defense better. Shouldnt you have outlined Chicago's statistics instead?

With stats like that, anyone should make the defence better.

[bobbybutler]

Funny that Boozer is playing 30 mins per game on a team that is 3rd in opp/PPG and 4th in defRtg.

But yet he is to Chicago what Bargnani is to Toronto. Bulls fans despise him because he is lazy on defense. I guess Bulls fans have higher standards when it comes to defense and some Raptors fans just want free pizza.

Also, he plays with Noah, Gibson, Deng, Hamilton and Hinrich who are all better defenders then Jonas, Amir, Rudy, Demar and Lowry. Thibodeau is also a much better coach than Casey.

Raptors don't have time to wait for Jonas to be good enough on defense to mask Boozer's incompetence. He couldn't do it with Andrea and he will not do it with Boozer. You can hide a bad perimeter defender on defense but you can't hide a bad interior defender on defense.

If the Raptors had an elite defense already then they could live with his incompetence. But they are not an elite defensive team and Boozer will not make them an elite defense. He will make them worse on defense than they are now.

Google "Carlos Boozer defense" and you will quickly realize that 99% of people that watch the Bulls believe that Chicago has an elite defense in spite of Boozer.

[Matt52]

But yet he is to Chicago what Bargnani is to Toronto. Bulls fans despise him because he is lazy on defense. I guess Bulls fans have higher standards when it comes to defense and some Raptors fans just want free pizza.

Also, he plays with Noah, Gibson, Deng, Hamilton and Hinrich who are all better defenders then Jonas, Amir, Rudy, Demar and Lowry. Thibodeau is also a much better coach than Casey.

Raptors don't have time to wait for Jonas to be good enough on defense to mask Boozer's incompetence. He couldn't do it with Andrea and he will not do it with Boozer. You can hide a bad perimeter defender on defense but you can't hide a bad interior defender on defense.

If the Raptors had an elite defense already then they could live with his incompetence. But they are not an elite defensive team and Boozer will not make them an elite defense. He will make them worse on defense than they are now.

Google "Carlos Boozer defense" and you will quickly realize that 99% of people that watch the Bulls believe that Chicago has an elite defense in spite of Boozer.

I can't wait to read the Bulls' fans messages should this deal happen.

Boozer is still a better player - both offensively and defensively - than Bargnani.


This season Boozer OffRtg 101; DefRtg 100
This season Bargnani OffRtg 95; DefRtg 110

Boozer career OffRtg 110; DefRtg 102
Bargnani career OffRtg 103; DefRtg 111


Not to mention Boozer actually hits the glass and gives you 8.5 more possessions per 48 minutes.