Terrence Ross is over-rated.

[Season]

Simple answer is yes.

[Dunk]

I'd like to delve (a little) into his shooting percentages from different areas.

First of all, I think people overrate the percentage of shots a player should make. If you don't take into account shots at the rim, the average league percentage in every area is below 40%! Source Of course you'd like all players to only take shots at the rim, but I'm pretty sure we all agree that's not happening.

A very high percentage of his shots, almost 47%, are from threepointrange. Clearly this has a huge impact on his overall shooting percentage. And clearly this is by design; the team wants him to spread the floor and take threes. His 3pt% from above the break is around the league average of 36%. It's his corner three which drags his 3pt% so far, but he has shot less of them (13,6% against 33% above the break). Source The gap between being a league average 3pt shooter and Ross isn't very high. It's not like teams can gameplan around it and give him the three because it gives them a better shot at winning. With Ross' volume, it's 1 make or miss more about every 12 games ...

Inside upside!
One thing to love about Ross is his shooting percentage at the rim and the way he gets them (of course it's early days in his career, so there is a small sample size alert). Looking at the stats of nba.com, he finishes an amazing 72% of his shots around the rim. That's territory few players get to.

Looking further into these numbers at hoopdata is also interesting. I looked at shooting guards playing at least 30 games. Hoopdata has him at 80%, maybe because it is only updated through february 3th (the dropoff reïnforces the small sample size idea, but either percentage would be very high). On hoopdata he ranks second among shooting guards (this would not be very different looking at all players by the way). But in the top 10 he has the smallest percentage off shots assisted which means he's very good on break-outs and/or he creates them himself. Both are promising. Source

Right now he's only taking about 17% of his shots at the rim and getting that up would probably mean some regression in percentage. But even with some regression he just might be a high percentage finisher around the rim. Couple that with an even slightly improved outside shot and he will be a very dangerous offensive player!

+1

Great post from someone who obviously knows what they're talking about.

[Blacklash2k4]

I don't get why people say this kid is untouchable. I know he's athletic and could develop into a nice piece, but has anyone looked at his stats? His shooting is terrible and that's supposed to be his best trait (41% fg, 33% 3 pt). His handles are average at best, he doesn't have any size advantage at his postion, his defense, while better than expected, has not been great, and he's already showing an alarming desire to take long shots instead of trying to drive. He's average at best for a first rounder.

I'm not saying that Ross can't become a nice player, I think he could even be a starter eventually if he works hard, but the only reason you make a young player untouchable is if he looks like he is going to become a star for you, and that is not Ross.

His trade value is very high, and I think that if you get an oppurtunity to improve your team by using him in a package with a high priced player, you do it.

Really? I expect more insight from a RR All-Star such as yourself! I'm sorely disappointed. You're looking purely on stats? F-ing really? Stats don't mean shit especially since he's a freaking rookie. If he was like a 3rd year NBA player, then that's a different story. Rookies are never truly ready for the pace of an NBA game unless you're a true star talent (ie. AD and Lillard). You even said his defense is better than expected. You expect a rookie to play amazing defense on veteran SGs? Are you being serious with this stupid post? I'm sorry, but you have seriously lost major respect from me! This post is just sad!

[Blacklash2k4]

This is really what I was getting at, I've repeatedly seen people post about how we can't trade this guy and read that Colangelo had deemed him untouchable, and he's done nothing to warrant that. He's got some potential surely, but I think there are some poeple who are massively overvaluing him.

Joey Graham looked pretty athletic and shot threes in his rookie year too. Now that's trolling!

He's untouchable because as a GM, you look fucking stupid if you trade away untapped potential and talent for anything outside an all-star player. Seriously disappointed in your ridiculous pointless post!

[Blacklash2k4]

Hilariously ignorant thread

+100000

[Dunk]

If TRoss can improve his ball handling skills, look out. As it stands right now, I believe that's the biggest thing holding him back. Hopefully he puts a lot of work into this in the offseason.

His stroke is one of the nicest looking shots I've seen. His athleticism is very strong. His biggest need is the ability to beat a defender off the dribble IMO.

[knowledgep]

retarded thread, bye.

[Hugmenot]

Ross has a unique skillset for a SG. I mean, he's a great 3pt shooter, great defender and is insanely athletic.

I dare you, give me an SG in the NBA that can do all those things.

If Ross develops all the skills that he has, he's going to be a beast.

Ross shoots 32.9% from 3 point land, a percentage well below greatness.

I really like the potential of Ross and Valanciunas but, from my perspective, they are overrated because too many see glimpses of what could be and say that's what they are.

I hope these glimpses will become their future norm but accept that for now, several older players with much lower ceilings are more productive than they are this season.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Ross shoots 32.9% from 3 point land, a percentage well below greatness.

I really like the potential of Ross and Valanciunas but, from my perspective, they are overrated because too many see glimpses of what could be and say that's what they are.

I hope these glimpses will become their future norm but accept that for now, several older players with much lower ceilings are more productive than they are this season.

I get what you're saying. Gray and Anderson will be less spectatcular, but likely more solid/consistent in their contributions than Valanciunas and Ross, given their veteran status and workmanship approach. However, given the fact that this team is missing the playoffs and is building for the future, I don't see any reason why the vets would get any playing time ahead of the rookies in this case.

[hateslosing]

Really? I expect more insight from a RR All-Star such as yourself! I'm sorely disappointed. You're looking purely on stats? F-ing really? Stats don't mean shit especially since he's a freaking rookie. If he was like a 3rd year NBA player, then that's a different story. Rookies are never truly ready for the pace of an NBA game unless you're a true star talent (ie. AD and Lillard). You even said his defense is better than expected. You expect a rookie to play amazing defense on veteran SGs? Are you being serious with this stupid post? I'm sorry, but you have seriously lost major respect from me! This post is just sad!

Just cause I've posted here for a long time doesn't give me a lot of insight, lol.

Stats are the best way to measure a players productivity, so whenever I give an opinion I try to back it up with stats. It's something easy to understand and gives you an idea of how a guys performing.

Star players are untouchable, guys with potential are not. Lillard, Davis, Beal, Drummand, maybe even Barnes are guys who are looking like they could be all-stars. Ross is not at that level and for people to look at him and pin their hopes is foolish. He could get there, but he is going to have to work his tail off to catch up with the real stars in his class.

I'm sad you lost respect for my basketball analysis skills. Ima do a sad dance at you.

[hateslosing]

He's untouchable because as a GM, you look fucking stupid if you trade away untapped potential and talent for anything outside an all-star player. Seriously disappointed in your ridiculous pointless post!

It's a basketball discussion site. What exactly constitutes a non-pointless post?

[mountio]

I'd like to delve (a little) into his shooting percentages from different areas.

First of all, I think people overrate the percentage of shots a player should make. If you don't take into account shots at the rim, the average league percentage in every area is below 40%! Source Of course you'd like all players to only take shots at the rim, but I'm pretty sure we all agree that's not happening.

A very high percentage of his shots, almost 47%, are from threepointrange. Clearly this has a huge impact on his overall shooting percentage. And clearly this is by design; the team wants him to spread the floor and take threes. His 3pt% from above the break is around the league average of 36%. It's his corner three which drags his 3pt% so far, but he has shot less of them (13,6% against 33% above the break). Source The gap between being a league average 3pt shooter and Ross isn't very high. It's not like teams can gameplan around it and give him the three because it gives them a better shot at winning. With Ross' volume, it's 1 make or miss more about every 12 games ...

Inside upside!
One thing to love about Ross is his shooting percentage at the rim and the way he gets them (of course it's early days in his career, so there is a small sample size alert). Looking at the stats of nba.com, he finishes an amazing 72% of his shots around the rim. That's territory few players get to.

Looking further into these numbers at hoopdata is also interesting. I looked at shooting guards playing at least 30 games. Hoopdata has him at 80%, maybe because it is only updated through february 3th (the dropoff reïnforces the small sample size idea, but either percentage would be very high). On hoopdata he ranks second among shooting guards (this would not be very different looking at all players by the way). But in the top 10 he has the smallest percentage off shots assisted which means he's very good on break-outs and/or he creates them himself. Both are promising. Source

Right now he's only taking about 17% of his shots at the rim and getting that up would probably mean some regression in percentage. But even with some regression he just might be a high percentage finisher around the rim. Couple that with an even slightly improved outside shot and he will be a very dangerous offensive player!

Good post. Ill add a few things to hammer things home:
- He has a nice stroke and can hit open shots. If he got more minutes a lot more of his shots would be open as opposed to forced with the 2nd unit
- Finishing at the rim is huge. Havent we seen enough of DD flailing and losing the ball after not taking it strong?? T Ross takes it STRONG and it shows with the stats

Ya, he has to learn to take his man of the dribble and take better shots .. but this guys skills (not his overall game yet, obviously) are better than DD today, let alone as a ceiling ..

[ReubenJRD]

Terrence Ross is UNDERRATED.

Athletic, already a 3-point threat. Great defender for a rookie, and solid basic skills. Ceiling is extremely high.

[theycallmeZZ]

He's been declared so underrated that now he's overrated.

[ReubenJRD]

He's been declared so underrated that now he's overrated.

+1.

[RobertArchibald]

He's been declared so underrated that now he's overrated.

+1. I think the issue is it's very difficult to project a player's potential at his age. If he was playing his Junior year at Washington right now he would look like a Top 5 pick. The problem is, guys chase the money and leave school early, thus sacrificing playing time and the ability to gain more in-game experience. Is he untouchable? No. Is he valuable? Yes.

[Matt52]

Ross shoots 32.9% from 3 point land, a percentage well below greatness.

I really like the potential of Ross and Valanciunas but, from my perspective, they are overrated because too many see glimpses of what could be and say that's what they are.

I hope these glimpses will become their future norm but accept that for now, several older players with much lower ceilings are more productive than they are this season.

Agreed but but but....

31% November
33% December
36.5% January

Great mechanics, fearless, confident.

I like his chances for greatness (and by that I mean 39-40%).

[Raptorboy]

I don't get why people say this kid is untouchable. I know he's athletic and could develop into a nice piece, but has anyone looked at his stats? His shooting is terrible and that's supposed to be his best trait (41% fg, 33% 3 pt). His handles are average at best, he doesn't have any size advantage at his postion, his defense, while better than expected, has not been great, and he's already showing an alarming desire to take long shots instead of trying to drive. He's average at best for a first rounder.

I'm not saying that Ross can't become a nice player, I think he could even be a starter eventually if he works hard, but the only reason you make a young player untouchable is if he looks like he is going to become a star for you, and that is not Ross.

His trade value is very high, and I think that if you get an opportunity to improve your team by using him in a package with a high priced player, you do it.

minutes.....minutes.....gonna be a dandy in a couple years but he needs to play. Trading him at this point would be a bad move. Unless another young "star potential" player comes back it wouldn't make sense.

[ReubenJRD]

minutes.....minutes.....gonna be a dandy in a couple years but he needs to play. Trading him at this point would be a bad move. Unless another young "star potential" player comes back it wouldn't make sense.

If it means Paul Milsap, would you do it?

[IROR]

T Ross has a higher ceiling than Derozan. Maybe give him 82 games before we start hating? He has all the tools, physically and mentally to be a star--it's on him to put in the work. We will see, but take a step back before we start calling him overrated. He hasn't even scratched the surface yet.