Bargnani... For Ilyasova?

[akashsingh]

Ilyasova will make us better but not make us good enough. We should hold out for more value for the bargster, or at least amnesty the larger contract, if waiting for pasta (and he shows everyone his true colors) backfires.

While taking the stats into consideration, watch some recent highlights if ilyasova and millsap, and you tell me who's better.

[ReubenJRD]

It would be hard to make an argument as to why the Bucks would do this trade. In terms of a straight up swap, the Bucks will only save $1M in the long run. In terms of short term flexibility, Bargnani will cost $3M more next season and $4M the season after.

I was pushing for someone who can solidify the low post scoring and interior presence for the Raptors. Ilyasova, who is a good role player (stretches the floor, rebounds and plays solid defense), is not the ideal power forward I was hoping for. However, his advanced statistics are similar to Paul Millsap's and his contract which is stated at $7.9 M per year for the next 3 seasons seems a more logical option than overpaying for a Millsap (whose contract is expiring by season's end). I am assuming Millsap will command a contract upwards of $11 M per year for 3-4 years.

Having Rudy Gay essentially as the go to option for the Raptors, we can argue that having a role player such as Ilyasova, who can impact the game even at a low usage %, is as valuable to the team as having Bargnani, a higher usage player with more skill set but produces at lower efficiency rate.

For comparison purposes, here is a brief list of power forwards who the Raptors can potentially target. (Bargnani's numbers are also featured to make comparisons easier)

Player	Age	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	Usg%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/48
Ersan Ilyasova	25	17.1	53.8	50.3	7.2	19.6	13.3	10.3	1.7	1.3	7.8	19.4	113	103	2.2	1.6	3.8	0.155
Paul Millsap	27	20.3	54.9	49.4	8.5	19.7	14	14.4	2.3	2.7	11.1	22.7	113	104	3.4	1.8	5.2	0.159
Carlos Boozer	31	17.4	50.6	47.4	8.7	25.8	17.3	12.3	1.2	1.1	11.4	26.1	102	100	1.1	2.5	3.6	0.121
Josh Smith	27	17.2	48.5	47.4	6.5	21	13.8	19.8	1.9	4.8	15	26.7	94	100	-0.7	2.8	2.1	0.068
Pau Gasol	32	15.9	50.7	46.2	7	19.1	13.2	17.2	0.7	2.9	13.2	20.1	106	106	1.3	1.2	2.5	0.101
Andrea Bargnani	27	12.7	49.4	45.4	2.8	13	7.7	7.7	1.2	1.6	10.2	25.8	96	109	-0.1	0.4	0.3	0.018

We can see that out of all the options available, Ilyasova is the youngest option at age 25. This is always a good idea when trying to build a core of players moving forward.

In terms of head to head match-up with Paul Millsap, his numbers are fairly comparable.

Ilyasova has a lower usage % which you want from a role player. He knows his role, does not demand a ton of plays, yet produces fairly well. He also turns the ball over at a lower percentage compared to Millsap. Add in the fact that he is 6'10" compared to Millsap's 6'8" frame, Ilyasova then provides the better answer in terms of size.

Both Millsap and Ilyasova have similar win share per 48 at around 0.15 - 0.16. In terms of that statistic, both players contribute the same amount to their team wins. One major statistic that I think solidifies my argument is that Ilyasova is only averaging 25 minutes per game. Moving forward, he can definitely fit the role of the first big off the bench and has the potential to finish games along with Amir or any front court partner.

In terms of the selection of players given above, Millsap and Ilyasova have the best production levels. Given that Boozer, Smith and Gasol are making in excess of $15 M & Smith projecting to be a max player and assuming Millsap will demand around $12 M per year this summer, Ilyasova, at $7.9M per season, is the most logical fit to the Raptors.

You've turned my head around Torch. Excellent, excellent post. Great explanation, great usage of stats. I've always wanted Milsap because he is the inside scoring presence this team lacks, but that is likely something JV addresses in the future, for he is a solid low post player already.

Ilyasova is now a sure fire guy for me, but like you mentioned in the beginning, why would Milwaukee do such a trade?

[Eric Akshinthala]

I wonder about a 3-way trade with Milwaukee & Utah, for Millsap? Would the Jazz have any interest in Ilyasova, assuming Milwaukee likes Bargnani?

This is a good idea. The problem may be that if this was possible Milwaukee could try to deal directly with Utah 'cause they'd rather have Millsap than Bargnani. I don't thaink Milwaukee or any team like Bargnani. If there's validity to the rumour, I think they(Milwaukee) consider his contract a better one to have than Ilyasova's.

[Miekenstien]

i didn't know how big ersan was, he is listed at 610 and 235. so big enough to play the 4.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/...ersan-ilyasova
gets his numbers in 25 minutes. so if he was coming in to be the backup 4, he would be a nice pickup. it leaves the front court still super light though, which means more grey

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/...ndrea-bargnani
in comparison andreagets less numbers across the board, except points on 5 more shots a game, in 7 more minutes

we save money and get more bang for the buck. i would do this trade.



again i don't get all the millsap love. if he was under contract for 3 more years or even 2 i would do it in a second. but we trade bargs away for him, only have a tiny window to resign him with exclusively(i think) for a player that is gone in 2 months because we can't pay him.

[Matt52]

i didn't know how big ersan was, he is listed at 610 and 235. so big enough to play the 4.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/...ersan-ilyasova
gets his numbers in 25 minutes. so if he was coming in to be the backup 4, he would be a nice pickup. it leaves the front court still super light though, which means more grey

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/...ndrea-bargnani
in comparison andreagets less numbers across the board, except points on 5 more shots a game, in 7 more minutes

we save money and get more bang for the buck. i would do this trade.



again i don't get all the millsap love. if he was under contract for 3 more years or even 2 i would do it in a second. but we trade bargs away for him, only have a tiny window to resign him with exclusively(i think) for a player that is gone in 2 months because we can't pay him.

Raps would own his Bird Rights and could pay him if they traded for him.

[Matt52]

You've turned my head around Torch. Excellent, excellent post. Great explanation, great usage of stats. I've always wanted Milsap because he is the inside scoring presence this team lacks, but that is likely something JV addresses in the future, for he is a solid low post player already.

Ilyasova is now a sure fire guy for me, but like you mentioned in the beginning, why would Milwaukee do such a trade?

For just Bargs? Who knows? Drug habit?

In seriousness, it comes back to taking bad contracts. What if Toronto took on Gooden? Or Udoh?

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ctxkp6v
Bargs, AA for Iylasova, Gooden

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ae6e9gm
Bargnani for Udoh,Ilyasova

[finnagin15]

realistic?

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=clasxos

[omgsomuchpotential]

realistic?

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=clasxos

Why would Washington trade Nene? Also, it seems like Minny is getting raped in this trade. I think it's really unbalanced, Raptors clearly would be the winners of the trade. Wishful thinking.

[Balls of Steel]

For just Bargs? Who knows? Drug habit?

In seriousness, it comes back to taking bad contracts. What if Toronto took on Gooden? Or Udoh?

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ctxkp6v
Bargs, AA for Iylasova, Gooden

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ae6e9gm
Bargnani for Udoh,Ilyasova

I'd take a Dalembert back rather than Gooden.

[planetmars]

I'd take a Dalembert back rather than Gooden.

Dalembert actually has a good contract. He's an expiring contract that I'm sure any team would want to take to get some cap space back in the off season. The point I think Matt was trying to say was that if Ilyasova was better than Bargnani what would entice Milwaukee in doing that trade? If we took back a bad contract like Gooden or Udrih then that might convince them.

[Matt52]

Dalembert actually has a good contract. He's an expiring contract that I'm sure any team would want to take to get some cap space back in the off season. The point I think Matt was trying to say was that if Ilyasova was better than Bargnani what would entice Milwaukee in doing that trade? If we took back a bad contract like Gooden or Udrih then that might convince them.

Yes. That was the point.

Udrih is also expiring. I think you mean Udoh.... which is a very easy mistake!

[planetmars]

Yes. That was the point.

Udrih is also expiring. I think you mean Udoh.... which is a very easy mistake!

Yes, sorry I meant Udoh!

[Matt52]

This would be another possibility:

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ce9q7nw

Bargs, Linas for Gooden,Ilyasova.

Bucks essentially saving the final year of Gooden's contract and the final guaranteed year of Ilyasova's.

[Matt52]

Bryan Colangelo has been rumoured to be fond of Ilyasova for a while – who could blame him? – and the Raptors were linked to the Turkish forward in free agency rumours in the summer, but I find it very hard to believe the Bucks would give up on Ersan to take on Bargnani’s bloated contract.

Sure, Ilyasova is actually on the books for another four years after this one for a total of just over $32 million while Bargnani is only on the books for another two years and roughly $22 million, but when you consider that Ilyasova will make $2.6 million less than Andrea in 2013-14 and $3.6 million less in 2014-15, you quickly realize that he’s in the early stages of a bargain contract in the NBA.

Despite his early season struggles in his first season post-extension, Ilyasova has recently bounced back to being the player many fans and stats nerds alike became enamored with over the last few years, averaging over 18 points and eight rebounds per game over his last 11 games. In addition, his per-36-minute averages remain impressive this season (15.9 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.2 steals) while the 6-9 forward continues to shoot the lights out from three-point range. After shooting the three-ball at a below average rate of 33.5 per cent over his first three NBA seasons, Ilyasova is shooting an insane 44.8 per cent from deep over the last two seasons, including 44.2 per cent this season.

Basically, when you look at the fact that Ilyasova is a floor-stretching forward who rebounds well and has the versatility to play the three and the four, you come to the realization that he’s everything Raptors fans wish Bargnani was, just at a much cheaper per-year cost (the advanced numbers also clearly favour the cheaper and younger Ilyasova).

The one concern with adding Ilyasova to an offence that already features Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan is that the team would still lack a true post presence, as nearly 57 per cent of Ersan’s 9.5 field goal attempts per game this season come from 16 feet out or more, but that also has to do with Milwaukee using him at small forward rather than power forward more than they have in the past. In addition, his legitimate long range threat compared to Bargnani’s perceived threat (Bargnani’s only shot above 35 per cent from deep three times in seven NBA seasons and hasn’t done so in three years) would really open up some slashing lanes for perimeter players like Gay, DeRozan and even Kyle Lowry, and the hope would be that Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas continue to evolve as effective post options.

Add it all up and a Bargnani for Ilyasova swap really does seem like the type of move that would be too good to be true for Raptors fans and ridiculous to accept for the Bucks. I don’t doubt Kyler’s report, because I imagine more than a couple of teams would be interested in Ilyasova’s services for the next handful of years, but I do doubt that Milwaukee would seriously entertain an offer built around Toronto’s “enigma of all enigmas.”

http://blogs.thescore.com/raptorblog...rget-ilyasova/

The bold says it all. Unless Toronto is relieving them of Gooden or less likely Udoh, I don't see this trade going down (or unless a 3rd team is added). It makes NO sense for Milwaukee.

[10 000 Hours]

Can't see the Bucks doing this trade. In the middle of a playoff race, they would not trade a player that a GM from a team trying to catch them in the standings.

[thead]

Can't see the Bucks doing this trade. In the middle of a playoff race, they would not trade a player that a GM from a team trying to catch them in the standings.

if you realize that your team is going to permanently stuck in the mushy middle, you blow it up sooner rather than later

[Nilanka]

if you realize that your team is going to permanently stuck in the mushy middle, you blow it up sooner rather than later

At the expense of playoff revenue? Milwaukee doesn't gain anything from blowing it up now as opposed to this summer. But they lose a lot of revenue generated by a playoff race.

[planetmars]

Milwaukee doesn't really need to blow it up either. They have a lot of expiring contracts and so next year is a 'blow it up' year anyway. They still need to figure out what they want to do with Jennings and Ellis would be a very big asset as well.

Ilyasova is signed to a good deal and has a long term contract which is enticing for an unfriendly free agent destination. I don't see Milwaukee trading him for Bargnani either. Bryan could be jonesing for him but it will probably be a few years before he gets him.

Before yesterday I would have said no to Ilyasova but looking at his stats, I could see why he'd be a good pickup. I would still prefer Gasol over him though and that's a far likely scenario.

[Eric Akshinthala]

At the expense of playoff revenue? Milwaukee doesn't gain anything from blowing it up now as opposed to this summer. But they lose a lot of revenue generated by a playoff race.

I agree. Reminds me of the recent Gay trade. I know that Memphis saved money in the deal but I thought they could've waited 'til the end of the season and still got about as much for Gay. The trade might cause them to slip out of the play-offs.

[white men can't jump]

if you realize that your team is going to permanently stuck in the mushy middle, you blow it up sooner rather than later

I have been on forums for Bucks fans over the last day or so....I see no talk of getting Bargs, but see lots of talk of them wanting to risk making a big move, even if they miss the playoffs. BUCKS FANS HATE ILYASOVA. They think he's not a good enough scorer, or close enough to a star. They DESPERATELY want a big man who can score, and they despise having Ellis on their roster. Some fans are crazy, and think they can trade for Cousins, or Gasol..a legit high scoring big, without gutting the team. Others understand that even if they are willing to gut a team, it's hard to convince a Cousins or Gasol to stay in Milwaukee.

A team like the Bucks almost only gets their top talent through the draft, and have a hard time attracting more than substandard talent....Anyway, the overwhelming sense I got is that all of their fans want a shakeup because they hate being in that middle part, and they know that other than Jennings they don't have any high level talent players. *keeping in mind they don't see Ellis as apiece of the future.

Bargnani, though I saw no mention of him, is clearly a talent upgrade...talent was never hs problem. And he would certainly be a better go-to guy up front than anyone they have, including Ilyasova, who's an efficient player, but also not capable of really reaching a higher level in terms of filling that big role of a 2nd or 3rd option. I still don't know if Milwaukee would actually want Bargs, given his contract and rebounding allergies, but in terms of what they may be looking for, he's clearly a more realistic option for them than Gasol or Cousins. I also don't see the Bucks giving up assets for a rental like Smith or Millsap, even though those 2, just like on our own forums here, are popular choices. Frankly, I don't see that they have a lot of options, so who knows, maybe htey'll fall into the Bargnani trap...Maybe if we sweeten the deal by taking back Udoh

(WHAT?! you say...You''re crazy!!...well, not really. With Ersan, JV and Amir, that's most of the minutes...keep Gray as a matchup big and Acy as a 5th big, Udoh becomes the emergency big, who you pay too much but we can just renounce his right and let him walk...it doesn't affect our flexibility since we only have our exceptions to spend, and since Ilyasova makes less, we can absorb most of his and Udoh's salaries under the amount Bargs would be owed.)