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GT Nuggets vs Raptors: 1st difficult game of a difficult back to back

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  • white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    But I didn't think Gay went early. I mean, he got a move he liked right away. If he had been forced deeper or cut off at the perimeter, he would've had time to make adjustments as well.
    Maybe but the move he liked he created with the rip across the chest.

    Keep in mind I am thinking in the most perfect of terms or situations. Ideally the ball is going through the net with as little time as possible.

    I'd play for the win in that situation every time..... but that is just my opinion.

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    • Matt52 wrote: View Post
      Maybe but the move he liked he created with the rip across the chest.

      Keep in mind I am thinking in the most perfect of terms or situations. Ideally the ball is going through the net with as little time as possible.

      I'd play for the win in that situation every time..... but that is just my opinion.
      Basically, I would hope and plan for the time management that gives me the most chances at hitting a game winning shot in "one" possession(obv I do think in a 1 pt game you give enough time to foul +shoot again as well). Maybe Gay doesn't even get a shot he likes, but someone is open for a pass...with less time that wouldn't matter because the pass would be late so Gay would have to force a worse shot...so play for the iso, and a chance to get a lesser option off a pass, while always having time to rebound and have hopefully enough time for more than just a tip in or wild attempt (so like 3ish seconds), which should also be enough time to foul and get another chance to win/tie at the end.

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      • white men can't jump wrote: View Post

        If you would want Lowry to go earlier, and maybe he or Gay force a worse shot with it being a 1 point game, so that we still have time to foul and possibly make it a 3 point game, how is that a good thing???
        It's a good thing because if the first shot misses, you get another chance to either tie or win the game. The way they played it last night, if the first shot misses, you probably do not get another chance to get off another quality shot. I think that a good coach is always maximizing his team's odds to win the game by taking statistics into consideration, and I'm not sure that he did this.

        And again, I realize that it seems ridiculous to be bringing all this up after a win, but I'm just becoming more curious about Casey's clock management strategies. Specifically, there was a play a few games ago (Clips I think) where he did not go for a 2 for 1 at the end of a quarter where he clearly (in my amateur opinion [imao?]) should have.
        "Stop eating your sushi."
        "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
        "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
        - Jack Armstrong

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        • JimiCliff wrote: View Post
          It's a good thing because if the first shot misses, you get another chance to either tie or win the game. The way they played it last night, if the first shot misses, you probably do not get another chance to get off another quality shot. I think that a good coach is always maximizing his team's odds to win the game by taking statistics into consideration, and I'm not sure that he did this.
          Ok, I'm just going to totally take all the steam out of your argument...First I'm going to ignore the fact that you didn't seem to notice that I thought if he went early, there would've been waaaay more time than TO would've needed to get off a 3 to win/tie the game.....but lets get to the meat, the real clincher, the thing you can't possibly argue against.....

          If they end up having to foul because they miss, and even if they have time to get up another attempt...why would Denver let them? It would be hard enough to get up a quality 3 pt attempt in a 3 pt game on the last possession, with the other team knowing they don't have to guard inside the 3 pt line at all....but ignoring that, if you believe statistics should be taken into consideration...what are the odds a similar coach WOULDN'T JUST FOUL TORONTO when they're up 3, forcing us to make 2 fts instead of letting us take a shot that could tie the game......
          Last edited by white men can't jump; Wed Feb 13, 2013, 05:02 PM.

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          • JimiCliff wrote: View Post
            It's a good thing because if the first shot misses, you get another chance to either tie or win the game. The way they played it last night, if the first shot misses, you probably do not get another chance to get off another quality shot. I think that a good coach is always maximizing his team's odds to win the game by taking statistics into consideration, and I'm not sure that he did this.

            And again, I realize that it seems ridiculous to be bringing all this up after a win, but I'm just becoming more curious about Casey's clock management strategies. Specifically, there was a play a few games ago (Clips I think) where he did not go for a 2 for 1 at the end of a quarter where he clearly (in my amateur opinion [imao?]) should have.
            No you don't. There's better odds that the defense rebounds the ball off a missed shot.

            The ideal play in that situation is to get a shot off with about 3 seconds left at most, allowing enough time for a tap-in/put-back shot off a miss, with minimal/no time for the other team to have a legitimate chance to win the game after a made bucket. You play for the win. Always.

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            • JimiCliff wrote: View Post
              It's a good thing because if the first shot misses, you get another chance to either tie or win the game. The way they played it last night, if the first shot misses, you probably do not get another chance to get off another quality shot. I think that a good coach is always maximizing his team's odds to win the game by taking statistics into consideration, and I'm not sure that he did this.

              And again, I realize that it seems ridiculous to be bringing all this up after a win, but I'm just becoming more curious about Casey's clock management strategies. Specifically, there was a play a few games ago (Clips I think) where he did not go for a 2 for 1 at the end of a quarter where he clearly (in my amateur opinion [imao?]) should have.
              Statistically i think he did the right thing. They were outrebounded the whole night, so a putback or offensive rebound wouldve probably been out of the question. Also, Casey probably didnt want the game extended since Amir and Gay already had 5 fouls so the Nuggets wouldve just ran over those two in the extra period and theyre facing a back to back against the 2nd best team in their conference. So he probably thought win or lose, lets make this quick and get out of here.

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              • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                No you don't. There's better odds that the defense rebounds the ball off a missed shot.

                The ideal play in that situation is to get a shot off with about 3 seconds left at most, allowing enough time for a tap-in/put-back shot off a miss, with minimal/no time for the other team to have a legitimate chance to win the game after a made bucket. You play for the win. Always.
                Actually, if its a tied game, on your homecourt and not the first game of a back to back, i think coaches tend to take the tie and try to grind out a win in overtime, oh and considering their starters are not in foul trouble, but thats a whole different situation and discussion.

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                • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                  No you don't. There's better odds that the defense rebounds the ball off a missed shot.
                  I was talking about the extra possession you get by shooting quickly. As in: you shoot, miss, other team rebounds, they get fouled, take free throws, then you have the ball again with ten seconds left.
                  "Stop eating your sushi."
                  "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
                  "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
                  - Jack Armstrong

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                  • TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
                    Actually, if its a tied game, on your homecourt and not the first game of a back to back, i think coaches tend to take the tie and try to grind out a win in overtime, oh and considering their starters are not in foul trouble, but thats a whole different situation and discussion.
                    How would you take a tie when you're down 1 point with 15 seconds left (like in last night's game)?

                    In last night's game, the Raptors had 5 options available:

                    1) go for game-winning shot at/near the buzzer - which is what they did

                    2) go for quick game-winning shot (shot missed), then hope to get a rebound for a 2nd chance

                    3) go for quick game-winning shot (shot missed), rebound lost, then foul (you'd likely need a 3pt shot to tie, as opposed the 2pt shot to win that you initially needed, before rushing to take a shot)

                    4) go for quick game-winning shot (shot made), then hope to prevent other team from making a game-winning shot

                    5) go for quick game-winning shot (shot made), hoping to have created a 2-for-1 situation, so that you can answer a go-ahead shot made by the opposition (assuming they don't make it a buzzer-beater)


                    I don't see how any option other than #1 is viable, given that there were less than 24 seconds remaining (too little time for option #4 to be realistic). Why would you ever give the other team the ball to decide the outcome of the game? Play for the win and let your team determine the outcome, every time!
                    Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Wed Feb 13, 2013, 05:24 PM.

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                    • JimiCliff wrote: View Post
                      I was talking about the extra possession you get by shooting quickly. As in: you shoot, miss, other team rebounds, they get fouled, take free throws, then you have the ball again with ten seconds left.
                      I still don't think it makes any sense to do that, because then you're still faced with needing to make a shot, but you've got less time on the clock to execute a play. You'd very likely need a 3pt shot to tie, as opposed to a 2pt shot to win. It makes absolutely no sense to me.

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                      • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                        I still don't think it makes any sense to do that, because then you're still faced with needing to make a shot, but you've got less time on the clock to execute a play. You'd very likely need a 3pt shot to tie, as opposed to a 2pt shot to win. It makes absolutely no sense to me.
                        You're still taking the two point shot for the win, only earlier. An extra possession gives you another chance to tie or win if you miss. That's the whole point here, strategizing for what happens if you miss.
                        "Stop eating your sushi."
                        "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
                        "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
                        - Jack Armstrong

                        Comment


                        • JimiCliff wrote: View Post
                          You're still taking the two point shot for the win, only earlier. An extra possession gives you another chance to tie or win if you miss. That's the whole point here, strategizing for what happens if you miss.
                          First, I think you should strategize a play with the intention/belief that you're going to make a shot, not miss a shot. You don't plan to fail, you plan to succeed. If you make your shot, you don't want the other team to have a chance to tie/win with the ball in their hands, if you can avoid it.

                          Second, even considering a missed shot, I still think your logic is flawed. If you take a rushed shot and miss (per your scenario), there are too many unknowns involved:

                          - What if they pass the ball and it takes too long to foul, then the game clock runs out? Game over, you lose.

                          - What if they make a basket and get fouled, making it a 2 possession game? Game over, you lose.

                          - Even if they get fouled immediately, chances are they make both foul shots, meaning you have less time to draw up a play that requires a 3pt shot to tie the game --> wouldn't you have been better off just drawing up a play and taking extra time to execute a play where a 2pt shot would win the game? Much greater chances of losing the game with your strategy.



                          Your entire premise is that you expect your team to miss the shot, so you plan for the wost. According to your strategy, your team now has much less time to make a 3pt shot just to tie, than they previously did to make a 2pt shot to win. If you're lacking confidence in your team's ability to plan/execute a play to make a single shot, why would you put them in an even worse situation?

                          - less time
                          - 3pt shot instead of 2pt shot (ie: no drives, so not chance for bail-out foul call, tip-in, rebound/put-back)
                          - making the shot results in a tie, instead of a win
                          Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Wed Feb 13, 2013, 05:48 PM.

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                          • JimiCliff wrote: View Post
                            You're still taking the two point shot for the win, only earlier. An extra possession gives you another chance to tie or win if you miss. That's the whole point here, strategizing for what happens if you miss.
                            JimiCliff wrote: View Post
                            I was talking about the extra possession you get by shooting quickly. As in: you shoot, miss, other team rebounds, they get fouled, take free throws, then you have the ball again with ten seconds left.
                            This still makes no sense.....so you miss the shot, get time like you say, foul them, they hit both, it's a 3 point game.....
                            -If you get a quick shot off, and miss, and foul, it becomes a two possession game if they hit one ft....loss

                            -If you get the quick shot off and make it, you still go to OT, assuming the other team doesn't score...in our particular situation, Gay and Amir had foul trouble, and Denver had all the momentum in the 2nd half...hard to believe we'd squeeze out a win

                            -If you have 10 seconds left and are down 3 and don't take a quick shot....you are forced to dribble out some clock if you try to take the last shot...in this situation, Denver will almost immediately foul, when the clock is at 6 or 7 seconds at the latest...if you miss any fts and then are forced to foul them, they can make it a 2 possession game. If you hit both and foul them, they can still make it a 3 pt game meaning your best hope is likely just OT, which again, would not have been a good scenario last night. Your best hope becomes hitting the first and missing the second to get a rebound, which is clearly not a high% option...I mean really, if you're down 3 with less than 10 seconds and trying to hold for a last shot, why wouldn't they just foul you?

                            I do not see how any of these scenarios lead to a sounder strategy than trying to score the winning bucket when you're down 1 and using as much clock as possible to do it. Again, as long as there are less than a handful of seconds for the bad scenario of missing that shot, for at least one chance to rebound and shoot for the win, or foul and shoot for the tie.

                            *Sorry CalgaryRapsFan, didn't see you did a somewhat similar breakdown...though I do think it's worth noting the "they could foul us" aspect of being down 3.
                            Last edited by white men can't jump; Wed Feb 13, 2013, 06:16 PM.

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                            • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                              Your entire premise is that you expect your team to miss the shot, so you plan for the wost.
                              That isn't my premise!

                              My premise is that you should look at the probabilities of all possible outcomes, and then choose the strategy that gives you best chance of winning.


                              CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post

                              Second, even considering a missed shot, I still think your logic is flawed. If you take a rushed shot and miss (per your scenario)
                              This is all based on the idea that you would not have to rush your shot on either your first shot, or your hypothetical second shot. IMO they wouldn't have had to; given that they're advancing the ball with a timeout, they easily had time for two quality plays.

                              CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post

                              - What if they pass the ball and it takes too long to foul, then the game clock runs out? Game over, you lose.
                              This shouldn't be an issue for an NBA team.

                              CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post

                              - What if they make a basket and get fouled, making it a 2 possession game? Game over, you lose.
                              Neither should this. But granted, you are putting these situations into play if you lengthen the game.
                              "Stop eating your sushi."
                              "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
                              "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
                              - Jack Armstrong

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                              • white men can't jump wrote: View Post

                                I do not see how any of these scenarios lead to a sounder strategy than trying to score the winning bucket when you're down 1 and using as much clock as possible to do it. Again, as long as there are less than a handful of seconds for the bad scenario of missing that shot, for at least one chance to rebound and shoot for the win, or foul and shoot for the tie.
                                It's all about giving yourself one more chance if you happen to miss. That's it. An additional chance to win, all other things being equal. If you DO NOT strategize to give yourself this chance, then you play to make sure the other team doesn't have time to get off a decent shot for a walk-off win, which we didn't really do.

                                And maybe that's being a little nit-picky, asking Rudy to just shave a couple more seconds off of the clock before he shoots the ball. Maybe the degree of difficulty is enough that you kinda have to take the shot that's there. But, he is getting paid 19 mil a year...
                                "Stop eating your sushi."
                                "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
                                "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
                                - Jack Armstrong

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