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Thread: Bummed about Rudy's inefficient shooting? Hey, at least we aren't the Bucks...

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    Default Bummed about Rudy's inefficient shooting? Hey, at least we aren't the Bucks...

    I did a little checking on B-R looking at the worst volume shooters in the league this season, and specifically which guys have the most terrible, team-killing games. I did searches at two thresholds: games with 15 or more FG attempts and 40% or worse shooting were defined as "bad games", and games with 15 or more FG attempts with 30% or worse shooting were defined as "awful games".

    Here's the top ten in bad games:

    Code:
    Rk.     Name                    #   Team record
    ---     ------------------      --  -----------
    1       Monta Ellis             22  10-12
    2       Rudy Gay                20  12-8
    3       Brandon Jennings        20  5-15
    4       Russell Westbrook       19  8-11
    5       James Harden            17  5-12
    6       Kobe Bryant             15  8-7
    7       Paul Pierce             15  6-9
    8       Stephen Curry           13  7-6
    9       Jrue Holiday            13  5-8
    10      Kemba Walker            13  3-10
    And the top ten in awful games:

    Code:
    Rk.    Name                #      Team record 
    ---    -----------------   --     -----------
    1      Monta Ellis         8      3-5
    2      Brandon Jennings    8      1-7
    3      James Harden        7      2-5
    4      Russell Westbrook   7      1-6
    5      Damian Lillard      6      0-6
    6      Raymond Felton      5      2-3
    7      Rudy Gay            5      2-3
    8      J.R. Smith          5      4-1
    9      Andrea Bargnani     4      1-3
    10     Kemba Walker        4      2-2
    Some thoughts on the lists:

    - Rudy's right near the top of the "bad games" list, but his team's record in those 20 "bad games" is 12-8. Small sample size and all, but it would appear that Rudy's bad games aren't hurting his team as much as the other guys.

    - Westbrook is the Thunder's achilles heel. Contain him while baiting him into taking bad shots and OKC's pretty mortal. If you don't manage to get a bad game out of Westbrook, OKC's practically unbeatable at 32-4.

    - When Jennings plays bad, the Bucks are turrible.

    - Bargs managed to make a top-ten appearance in awful games despite playing half as many games as most everyone else on the list.

    - Though James Harden appears on these lists, if you take a look at the game logs from his bad games, he's averaging almost 11 FTA/g in those games. So his bad ones aren't quite as inefficient as some of the other guys'. (Rudy averages just 4.4 FTA in his bad games, and Jennings averages 3.5, for comparison.)
    Last edited by tkfu; Sun Feb 24th, 2013 at 01:28 AM. Reason: fixed table formatting

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    Raptors Republic Starter torch19's Avatar
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    Great post boss! The turn out wasn't very surprising but I guess that makes it official. Monta Ellis is the most inefficient chucker in the league. You see, Rudy's shooting %'s some games are cringe worthy, but his impact defensively is really underrated. But I guess that's Memphis training for you.

    I have Jrue Holiday on my fantasy & so I'm pretty much updated with his stats. He's good but he clearly has to do too much for the team. Too many TO's as well for him.

    Amazing sign that you can still contribute to a team win despite having a bad or awful game, as you described it.
    “I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

    -- Charles Barkley

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    Nice work. With both Harden and Gay on the list, it makes you think twice about raw stats. Gay's impact defensively has been pretty large. There is also no doubt that his team mates have tended to shoot better with him on the floor. Whether from increased confidence or less defensive pressure, I couldn't say.

    Really appreciate this post. It's a "thinking" of the kind we see too few of.

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    stop being a nerd. games are not won by shooting percentages. it comes down to player/team impact. Rudy Gay brings the swagger, the confidence and most importantly he impacts the game when it's winning time, and that's the 4th quarter. he doesn't lose confidence if his shot is off in the first two-three quarters. He's had one bad game since coming over. against Memphis, which makes sense. they know his game. plus there interior game is just waaay better then anything we got. inside/out offense will always be better in the long run. Rudy is 10 games in, and the Air Canada Center is buzzing with talk about the playoffs!! he's worth every cent!!! all we need to get is stronger inside for next season, and were a top 4 seed!! Jefferson/Millsap come on down!!!!

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    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Rudy Gay has those NBA2K13 signature skills! Floor general - makes teammates better on offense - and Defensive anchor - makes teammates better on defense. :P

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    Kobe lifetime is 45% - 33% from 3pt. Not the greatest percentages considering the excellence of his career. Rudy lifetime shooting percentages are almost identical 45% - 34% from 3pt. Not the greatest but really not as bad as a lot of fans here think. On the Raptors I've never seen the addition of one player have such a dramatic influence on the overall confidence level of the team. A confidence that is impacting the win column.

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    Quote j bean wrote: View Post
    Kobe lifetime is 45% - 33% from 3pt. Not the greatest percentages considering the excellence of his career. Rudy lifetime shooting percentages are almost identical 45% - 34% from 3pt. Not the greatest but really not as bad as a lot of fans here think. On the Raptors I've never seen the addition of one player have such a dramatic influence on the overall confidence level of the team. A confidence that is impacting the win column.
    Rudy has been great but do you remember Vince? jayz wearing his Jersey in videos and the raptors on tnt.

    keep being a nerd because these stats show us that 7 of 10 players, which is 70%(for non nerds) hurt their teams. and further to that rudys is the only team or 10%(again for non nerds) whose team has a winning record.

    really liking the Rudy gay era. hopefully him and lowly re up. need to show these guys we aren't fairweather fans and support the entire team.

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    Quote Miekenstien wrote: View Post
    ...need to show these guys we aren't fairweather fans and support the entire team.
    And don't Booo their team mates when they step on the floor.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    BEST POST i've read here in a LOOOOOOOOOOOONG time. Great work and great analysis. Makes me feel better about Gay's inefficient shooting.

    The good news is that if Gay has a good shooting night were going to be able to run with any team.

    The bad news is that Gay HAS to make an impact in the other areas other than offense every night, otherwise he's not bringing a lot to the table.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    Raptors Republic Starter torch19's Avatar
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    The only guy who can stop the Thunder is Russell Westbrook.
    “I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

    -- Charles Barkley

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    Quote otiswolf wrote: View Post
    stop being a nerd. games are not won by shooting percentages. it comes down to player/team impact. Rudy Gay brings the swagger, the confidence and most importantly he impacts the game when it's winning time, and that's the 4th quarter. he doesn't lose confidence if his shot is off in the first two-three quarters. He's had one bad game since coming over. against Memphis, which makes sense. they know his game. plus there interior game is just waaay better then anything we got. inside/out offense will always be better in the long run. Rudy is 10 games in, and the Air Canada Center is buzzing with talk about the playoffs!! he's worth every cent!!! all we need to get is stronger inside for next season, and were a top 4 seed!! Jefferson/Millsap come on down!!!!
    Team shooting % is often the #1 difference between winning or losing a game. The teams that dominate the league are the ones who shooting much better than their opponents on a consistent basis. Dominant defences focus on opponents FG% as the number 1 indicator of success because it translates into so many aspects of the game; stopping transition baskets, forcing tough shots/making shots difficult by closing out, protecting the paint. Your comment makes you seem disconnected from reality, perhaps too much 2k13?

    Great post by tkfu. Very solid analysis of a pseudo hot-topic.
    Whatever you do, do it the best you can

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    Raptors Republic Rookie footarez's Avatar
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    tkfu - Great Work. I wanted to do something like that since Rudy Gay arrived but I couldn't really. So even if Rudy's bad games are a lot we can still win. I think he will improve in the FTA and his shooting % should improve once he and the team finds some sort of stavility. (could be next season)

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    Gay has seen his % drop this year, having been a mid to upper 40's shooter for all but his rookie year; but as long as he continues to rebound, defend and make passes, it's easy to live with. His shooting % could climb again as he get's re-engaged in bball.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star enlightenment's Avatar
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    As I said to my friend earlier, Rudy gay has a high percentage on low percentage shots!

    That may well be what makes him valuable.
    The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    As I said to my friend earlier, Rudy gay has a high percentage on low percentage shots!

    That may well be what makes him valuable.
    I agree with that, but he really needs to make the open three's and work on his mid range game.
    @RavNation

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    Quote footarez wrote: View Post
    tkfu - Great Work. I wanted to do something like that since Rudy Gay arrived but I couldn't really. So even if Rudy's bad games are a lot we can still win. I think he will improve in the FTA and his shooting % should improve once he and the team finds some sort of stavility. (could be next season)
    I'd like to hope his FTAs will go up, but that would be very anomalous, historically. I think we could hope for a bounceback year as far as 3PT% goes--jump shot shooting percentage is the stat with the highest year-over-year variance. When it comes to free throw trips, though, after about age 25 a player is who he is.

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    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Rudy Gay would be incredibly efficient if he took better shots from the field. Simple as that. He takes far too many contested jumpers, and threes without any significant lift from his legs. Misses a lot of the easy shots/gimmies far too often as well.

    He needs to get stronger, because he clearly doesn't have the strength, or lack thereof to slash as much as we would like.

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    post this guy up already, we need easier buckets from him.

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    Although this is still a great post, I can't help but feeling the title "...at least we aren't the bucks" doesn't have quite the shine it did when we were playing well and there was a legimate although rather looooooooong shot of catching and supplanting the bucks, since it is looking more and more obvious that they will be playing in playoffs and we'll be playing with ourselves. The argument that we're better off in the long run (which I agree with) doesn't completely make up for that, unforunately.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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