Bargnani and Gay, 1st and 3rd most overpaid?

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

not sure if somebody posted this already

http://www.thestar.com/sports/raptor...e_feschuk.html

Bargnani i dont dispute but Gay? I think you cant just focus on statistics but the circumstances surrounding it as well.

[Nilanka]

I found this point to be particularly interesting:

A researcher offered an explanation for why bad NBA teams tend to hang around so many games, only to lose in the end. It’s because teams with leads become risk averse, tighten up and shoot less three-pointers than they should while teams that trail play loose and take risks. Still, as author Justin Rao said in his lecture, “at clutch moments, a good team and a bad team are worlds apart — in some cases it’s like a pro team against a college team.”

We've seen a lot of Raptor fans, as well as Casey and Colangelo speak about how "close" we are, while using all those close losses early in the season as evidence. The quote above suggests that it's all a mirage.

[isaacthompson]

Gay's was heavily based on potential that was never seen.

[phez]

I found this point to be particularly interesting:



We've seen a lot of Raptor fans, as well as Casey and Colangelo speak about how "close" we are, while using all those close losses early in the season as evidence. The quote above suggests that it's all a mirage.

but raps will always chuck threes even if we are up by 10

[Fully]

not sure if somebody posted this already

http://www.thestar.com/sports/raptor...e_feschuk.html

Bargnani i dont dispute but Gay? I think you cant just focus on statistics but the circumstances surrounding it as well.

Rudy Gay is the 4th highest paid small forward in the NBA this season and the 23rd ranked small forward in terms of PER.
His usage rate is through the roof (12th in the entire league, 4th among small forwards) and yet he ranks outside the top 50 in advanced stats like true shooting percentage and assist ratio. In a nutshell, he gets paid a ton of money and does a lot of things that analytics guys don't like.

[NoPropsneeded]

but raps will always chuck threes even if we are up by 10

This is true. Instead of taking it inside we chill on the perimeter jacking bricks

[ReubenJRD]

Rudy Gay is the 4th highest paid small forward in the NBA this season and the 23rd ranked small forward in terms of PER.
His usage rate is through the roof (12th in the entire league, 4th among small forwards) and yet he ranks outside the top 50 in advanced stats like true shooting percentage and assist ratio. In a nutshell, he gets paid a ton of money and does a lot of things that analytics guys don't like.

Key statement.

[white men can't jump]

Well I think you can certainly make the argument that Gay is overpaid, no matter how you slice it....

The problem with the overpaid argument is that so many people are. And I don't just mean the obvious ones. I mean in the sense that often the going rate for an upgrade (perceived or real) is paying more than fair value. Rudy Gay might be making a couple million more than he should, but also, you're not going to be able to sign/retain a player of his talent most of the time without overpaying, which management usually sells as investing in something like potential, or team chemistry/unity, or whatever hell else crap they come up with that's basically a way to avoid saying (using a different player for an example from the infamous Decision summer) "if we bid 12-13 million per season for Boozer instead of 15, we would end up losing the bidding war, regardless of value"...I use Boozer because unlike Gay, it was a contract given on merit rather than potential, but the length/amount were clearly too much. Boozer was among the best PFs though and in his prime when he signed it. Overpaying is very common practice in the NBA.

[ReubenJRD]

Well I think you can certainly make the argument that Gay is overpaid, no matter how you slice it....

The problem with the overpaid argument is that so many people are. And I don't just mean the obvious ones. I mean in the sense that often the going rate for an upgrade (perceived or real) is paying more than fair value. Rudy Gay might be making a couple million more than he should, but also, you're not going to be able to sign/retain a player of his talent most of the time without overpaying, which management usually sells as investing in something like potential, or team chemistry/unity, or whatever hell else crap they come up with that's basically a way to avoid saying (using a different player for an example from the infamous Decision summer) "if we bid 12-13 million per season for Boozer instead of 15, we would end up losing the bidding war, regardless of value"...I use Boozer because unlike Gay, it was a contract given on merit rather than potential, but the length/amount were clearly too much. Boozer was among the best PFs though and in his prime when he signed it. Overpaying is very common practice in the NBA.

Another key point. However you look at it, Rudy Gay is overpaid, but it's the common thing if you want talent in this league to stay.

[white men can't jump]

but raps will always chuck threes even if we are up by 10

at least Alan Anderson will....

[Nilanka]

at least Alan Anderson will....

And Lucas, and Gay, and Lowry, and Bargnani.

DeRozan will do the same with 1 foot on the line.

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

Well I think you can certainly make the argument that Gay is overpaid, no matter how you slice it....

The problem with the overpaid argument is that so many people are. And I don't just mean the obvious ones. I mean in the sense that often the going rate for an upgrade (perceived or real) is paying more than fair value. Rudy Gay might be making a couple million more than he should, but also, you're not going to be able to sign/retain a player of his talent most of the time without overpaying, which management usually sells as investing in something like potential, or team chemistry/unity, or whatever hell else crap they come up with that's basically a way to avoid saying (using a different player for an example from the infamous Decision summer) "if we bid 12-13 million per season for Boozer instead of 15, we would end up losing the bidding war, regardless of value"...I use Boozer because unlike Gay, it was a contract given on merit rather than potential, but the length/amount were clearly too much. Boozer was among the best PFs though and in his prime when he signed it. Overpaying is very common practice in the NBA.

damn, i spent an hour thinking about my reply and you come up and beat me to it! hahahaha

well said sir.

if i may add, if BC can find a player with less salary, who only has Gay's "positive" aspects, and is available for acquisition, wouldnt he have done that by now? or drafted one? problem is, you either overpay or wait. at least if you overpay, you know what you are getting and can adjust your other pieces to fit with or around that major piece. waiting, well good luck with that.

[Hugmenot]

Rudy Gay is the 4th highest paid small forward in the NBA this season and the 23rd ranked small forward in terms of PER.
His usage rate is through the roof (12th in the entire league, 4th among small forwards) and yet he ranks outside the top 50 in advanced stats like true shooting percentage and assist ratio. In a nutshell, he gets paid a ton of money and does a lot of things that analytics guys don't like.

A silly statement in my opinion as the public does not have access to the data to do proper analytics.

I have never seen something as simple as shooting percentage from guarded/open shots for example. Or stuff like, what is the proportion of Amir Johnson's 15 footers which are wide open shots when Amir is the fourth option on the floor.

And that's very simple questions with very simple answers if we had the data.

I am sure teams have that data and far, far more interesting data points.

[Craiger]

A silly statement in my opinion as the public does not have access to the data to do proper analytics.

I have never seen something as simple as shooting percentage from guarded/open shots for example. Or stuff like, what is the proportion of Amir Johnson's 15 footers which are wide open shots when Amir is the fourth option on the floor.

And that's very simple questions with very simple answers if we had the data.

I am sure teams have that data and far, far more interesting data points.

Are you sure about that?

Alex Rucker claimed the same thing. Yet the 'public box score stats' sure turned out alot more accurate than whatever he was claiming preseason.

[Chr1s1anL]

Overpaid or not Gay make this team better!

@nbastats: Since Feb.1st, top 3-man lineup in terms of DefRtg is @Raptors' Lowry, Gay, Valanciunas (82.5). Indy's George, Hibbert, West 2nd (83.1)

[ReubenJRD]

Overpaid or not Gay make this team better!

@nbastats: Since Feb.1st, top 3-man lineup in terms of DefRtg is @Raptors' Lowry, Gay, Valanciunas (82.5). Indy's George, Hibbert, West 2nd (83.1)

Yes, but being overpaid will always be a problem. Paying someone more money than they're deserving. I'm a big fan of what Gay has brought, and his talent, but clearly he should not be paid $16 million dollars. Well, not right now.

[JimiCliff]

Well I think you can certainly make the argument that Gay is overpaid, no matter how you slice it....

The problem with the overpaid argument is that so many people are. And I don't just mean the obvious ones. I mean in the sense that often the going rate for an upgrade (perceived or real) is paying more than fair value. Rudy Gay might be making a couple million more than he should, but also, you're not going to be able to sign/retain a player of his talent most of the time without overpaying, which management usually sells as investing in something like potential, or team chemistry/unity, or whatever hell else crap they come up with that's basically a way to avoid saying (using a different player for an example from the infamous Decision summer) "if we bid 12-13 million per season for Boozer instead of 15, we would end up losing the bidding war, regardless of value"...I use Boozer because unlike Gay, it was a contract given on merit rather than potential, but the length/amount were clearly too much. Boozer was among the best PFs though and in his prime when he signed it. Overpaying is very common practice in the NBA.

It's a common practice among bad teams. The smart teams, who end up being the good teams, almost never overpay.

[white men can't jump]

It's a common practice among bad teams. The smart teams, who end up being the good teams, almost never overpay.

Such as? Other than San Antonio...It helps when your franchise player is willing to take paycuts.

[Puffer]

It's a common practice among bad teams. The smart teams, who end up being the good teams, almost never overpay.

So, what would the Raptors record be without overpaying Gay? Does anyone believe that they would have won those games with Calderon and Ed? (And I am a huge Calderon fan...just popped for two tickets for April 1 so I can cheer when he enters the game).

[ReubenJRD]

So, what would the Raptors record be without overpaying Gay? Does anyone believe that they would have won those games with Calderon and Ed? (And I am a huge Calderon fan...just popped for two tickets for April 1 so I can cheer when he enters the game).

I don't. Who closes games? Who's going to have 17 points in the 4th quarter/overtime? Who attracts defense? Who adds confidence the team? Ed and Jose were great for this team, but of them combined doesn't add up to the talent Gay possesses.