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Thread: Bargnani and Gay, 1st and 3rd most overpaid?

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TheGloveinRapsUniform's Avatar
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    Default Bargnani and Gay, 1st and 3rd most overpaid?

    not sure if somebody posted this already

    http://www.thestar.com/sports/raptor...e_feschuk.html

    Bargnani i dont dispute but Gay? I think you cant just focus on statistics but the circumstances surrounding it as well.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    I found this point to be particularly interesting:

    A researcher offered an explanation for why bad NBA teams tend to hang around so many games, only to lose in the end. It’s because teams with leads become risk averse, tighten up and shoot less three-pointers than they should while teams that trail play loose and take risks. Still, as author Justin Rao said in his lecture, “at clutch moments, a good team and a bad team are worlds apart — in some cases it’s like a pro team against a college team.”
    We've seen a lot of Raptor fans, as well as Casey and Colangelo speak about how "close" we are, while using all those close losses early in the season as evidence. The quote above suggests that it's all a mirage.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Raptors Republic Superstar isaacthompson's Avatar
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    Gay's was heavily based on potential that was never seen.
    Writer for RaptorsWatch.com

    Twitter - @thekid_it

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    Raptors Republic Starter phez's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    I found this point to be particularly interesting:



    We've seen a lot of Raptor fans, as well as Casey and Colangelo speak about how "close" we are, while using all those close losses early in the season as evidence. The quote above suggests that it's all a mirage.
    but raps will always chuck threes even if we are up by 10

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    Raptors Republic Starter Fully's Avatar
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    Quote TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
    not sure if somebody posted this already

    http://www.thestar.com/sports/raptor...e_feschuk.html

    Bargnani i dont dispute but Gay? I think you cant just focus on statistics but the circumstances surrounding it as well.
    Rudy Gay is the 4th highest paid small forward in the NBA this season and the 23rd ranked small forward in terms of PER.
    His usage rate is through the roof (12th in the entire league, 4th among small forwards) and yet he ranks outside the top 50 in advanced stats like true shooting percentage and assist ratio. In a nutshell, he gets paid a ton of money and does a lot of things that analytics guys don't like.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran NoPropsneeded's Avatar
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    Quote phez wrote: View Post
    but raps will always chuck threes even if we are up by 10
    This is true. Instead of taking it inside we chill on the perimeter jacking bricks
    "You never heard of DeMar just google him, the defense don't know what to do wit him"

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    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    Rudy Gay is the 4th highest paid small forward in the NBA this season and the 23rd ranked small forward in terms of PER.
    His usage rate is through the roof (12th in the entire league, 4th among small forwards) and yet he ranks outside the top 50 in advanced stats like true shooting percentage and assist ratio. In a nutshell, he gets paid a ton of money and does a lot of things that analytics guys don't like.
    Key statement.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Well I think you can certainly make the argument that Gay is overpaid, no matter how you slice it....

    The problem with the overpaid argument is that so many people are. And I don't just mean the obvious ones. I mean in the sense that often the going rate for an upgrade (perceived or real) is paying more than fair value. Rudy Gay might be making a couple million more than he should, but also, you're not going to be able to sign/retain a player of his talent most of the time without overpaying, which management usually sells as investing in something like potential, or team chemistry/unity, or whatever hell else crap they come up with that's basically a way to avoid saying (using a different player for an example from the infamous Decision summer) "if we bid 12-13 million per season for Boozer instead of 15, we would end up losing the bidding war, regardless of value"...I use Boozer because unlike Gay, it was a contract given on merit rather than potential, but the length/amount were clearly too much. Boozer was among the best PFs though and in his prime when he signed it. Overpaying is very common practice in the NBA.

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    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    Well I think you can certainly make the argument that Gay is overpaid, no matter how you slice it....

    The problem with the overpaid argument is that so many people are. And I don't just mean the obvious ones. I mean in the sense that often the going rate for an upgrade (perceived or real) is paying more than fair value. Rudy Gay might be making a couple million more than he should, but also, you're not going to be able to sign/retain a player of his talent most of the time without overpaying, which management usually sells as investing in something like potential, or team chemistry/unity, or whatever hell else crap they come up with that's basically a way to avoid saying (using a different player for an example from the infamous Decision summer) "if we bid 12-13 million per season for Boozer instead of 15, we would end up losing the bidding war, regardless of value"...I use Boozer because unlike Gay, it was a contract given on merit rather than potential, but the length/amount were clearly too much. Boozer was among the best PFs though and in his prime when he signed it. Overpaying is very common practice in the NBA.
    Another key point. However you look at it, Rudy Gay is overpaid, but it's the common thing if you want talent in this league to stay.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote phez wrote: View Post
    but raps will always chuck threes even if we are up by 10
    at least Alan Anderson will....

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    at least Alan Anderson will....
    And Lucas, and Gay, and Lowry, and Bargnani.

    DeRozan will do the same with 1 foot on the line.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TheGloveinRapsUniform's Avatar
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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    Well I think you can certainly make the argument that Gay is overpaid, no matter how you slice it....

    The problem with the overpaid argument is that so many people are. And I don't just mean the obvious ones. I mean in the sense that often the going rate for an upgrade (perceived or real) is paying more than fair value. Rudy Gay might be making a couple million more than he should, but also, you're not going to be able to sign/retain a player of his talent most of the time without overpaying, which management usually sells as investing in something like potential, or team chemistry/unity, or whatever hell else crap they come up with that's basically a way to avoid saying (using a different player for an example from the infamous Decision summer) "if we bid 12-13 million per season for Boozer instead of 15, we would end up losing the bidding war, regardless of value"...I use Boozer because unlike Gay, it was a contract given on merit rather than potential, but the length/amount were clearly too much. Boozer was among the best PFs though and in his prime when he signed it. Overpaying is very common practice in the NBA.
    damn, i spent an hour thinking about my reply and you come up and beat me to it! hahahaha

    well said sir.

    if i may add, if BC can find a player with less salary, who only has Gay's "positive" aspects, and is available for acquisition, wouldnt he have done that by now? or drafted one? problem is, you either overpay or wait. at least if you overpay, you know what you are getting and can adjust your other pieces to fit with or around that major piece. waiting, well good luck with that.

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    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    Rudy Gay is the 4th highest paid small forward in the NBA this season and the 23rd ranked small forward in terms of PER.
    His usage rate is through the roof (12th in the entire league, 4th among small forwards) and yet he ranks outside the top 50 in advanced stats like true shooting percentage and assist ratio. In a nutshell, he gets paid a ton of money and does a lot of things that analytics guys don't like.
    A silly statement in my opinion as the public does not have access to the data to do proper analytics.

    I have never seen something as simple as shooting percentage from guarded/open shots for example. Or stuff like, what is the proportion of Amir Johnson's 15 footers which are wide open shots when Amir is the fourth option on the floor.

    And that's very simple questions with very simple answers if we had the data.

    I am sure teams have that data and far, far more interesting data points.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote Hugmenot wrote: View Post
    A silly statement in my opinion as the public does not have access to the data to do proper analytics.

    I have never seen something as simple as shooting percentage from guarded/open shots for example. Or stuff like, what is the proportion of Amir Johnson's 15 footers which are wide open shots when Amir is the fourth option on the floor.

    And that's very simple questions with very simple answers if we had the data.

    I am sure teams have that data and far, far more interesting data points.
    Are you sure about that?

    Alex Rucker claimed the same thing. Yet the 'public box score stats' sure turned out alot more accurate than whatever he was claiming preseason.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Chr1s1anL's Avatar
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    Overpaid or not Gay make this team better!

    @nbastats: Since Feb.1st, top 3-man lineup in terms of DefRtg is @Raptors' Lowry, Gay, Valanciunas (82.5). Indy's George, Hibbert, West 2nd (83.1)

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    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
    Overpaid or not Gay make this team better!

    @nbastats: Since Feb.1st, top 3-man lineup in terms of DefRtg is @Raptors' Lowry, Gay, Valanciunas (82.5). Indy's George, Hibbert, West 2nd (83.1)
    Yes, but being overpaid will always be a problem. Paying someone more money than they're deserving. I'm a big fan of what Gay has brought, and his talent, but clearly he should not be paid $16 million dollars. Well, not right now.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star JimiCliff's Avatar
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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    Well I think you can certainly make the argument that Gay is overpaid, no matter how you slice it....

    The problem with the overpaid argument is that so many people are. And I don't just mean the obvious ones. I mean in the sense that often the going rate for an upgrade (perceived or real) is paying more than fair value. Rudy Gay might be making a couple million more than he should, but also, you're not going to be able to sign/retain a player of his talent most of the time without overpaying, which management usually sells as investing in something like potential, or team chemistry/unity, or whatever hell else crap they come up with that's basically a way to avoid saying (using a different player for an example from the infamous Decision summer) "if we bid 12-13 million per season for Boozer instead of 15, we would end up losing the bidding war, regardless of value"...I use Boozer because unlike Gay, it was a contract given on merit rather than potential, but the length/amount were clearly too much. Boozer was among the best PFs though and in his prime when he signed it. Overpaying is very common practice in the NBA.
    It's a common practice among bad teams. The smart teams, who end up being the good teams, almost never overpay.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote JimiCliff wrote: View Post
    It's a common practice among bad teams. The smart teams, who end up being the good teams, almost never overpay.
    Such as? Other than San Antonio...It helps when your franchise player is willing to take paycuts.

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    Quote JimiCliff wrote: View Post
    It's a common practice among bad teams. The smart teams, who end up being the good teams, almost never overpay.
    So, what would the Raptors record be without overpaying Gay? Does anyone believe that they would have won those games with Calderon and Ed? (And I am a huge Calderon fan...just popped for two tickets for April 1 so I can cheer when he enters the game).

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    Quote Puffer wrote: View Post
    So, what would the Raptors record be without overpaying Gay? Does anyone believe that they would have won those games with Calderon and Ed? (And I am a huge Calderon fan...just popped for two tickets for April 1 so I can cheer when he enters the game).
    I don't. Who closes games? Who's going to have 17 points in the 4th quarter/overtime? Who attracts defense? Who adds confidence the team? Ed and Jose were great for this team, but of them combined doesn't add up to the talent Gay possesses.

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