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Revisited: Blow it up..... Seriously?? (Part 2)

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  • #31
    Matt52 wrote: View Post
    6 assists yesterday in 17 minutes. Not shabby.
    True. I think he could be a long-term piece, but I just wouldn't put him in the same 'untouchable' category that I would put Valanciunas & Ross.

    Comment


    • #32
      ebrian wrote: View Post
      The comparison was made to illustrate that after 7 years in the league it's time to face reality. We all love to look at a guy and say he has potential but when you've gone 7 years and you haven't solidified that play, or had coaches back you up -- then it's time to re-examine.

      Here are my responses to Lowry's 7 years:

      Year 1: Okay.
      Year 2: Why?
      Year 3: Okay.
      Year 4: Exactly.
      Year 5: Great! Full time starter in his 5th season!
      Year 6: Exactly.
      Year 7: Exactly.

      Here's the thing. Conley, Calderon, Dragic -- none of these guys are stars. Yet if I read some comments on these forums, I would think that Lowry has the potential to be one. When exactly is that going to happen? If he's a top 5-10 point guard, then why have all these coaches chosen to start average point guards over him? Simply because the team is doing well? I can think of several point guards who would not lose their starting position when returning from injury, and all of them are in the top 10 rankings of point guards. Situation is one thing and I see your point in this regard, but it's been 7 years and it's the same thing over and over and over again.

      We all love to watch basketball and we think we know a lot, but these coaches, it can't be that they're all wrong. I could understand if it were one coach, but all of them?
      A few points as someone who has watched a decent amount of Houston and Memphis ball...

      1 - I strongly disagree with you about Conley. Conley is a very underrated point; combined with Allen, the defense provided by the Memphis guards is one of the least talked about aspects of that team's success. He's a plus defensively, has three point range, and distributes the ball effectively within what is a very big-man oriented attack. If Gasol and Randolph (neither of whom need to be assisted for a decent number of their points, and the former of whom is an excellent passer himself that they often run the offense through) weren't on that team, you'd see a higher assist total for Conley, so the fact that he willingly plays a team game and defends like an angry wolverine hides his value somewhat (as those are not captured well by the box score). However, that shouldn't cause people to underestimate him. A lot of teams would probably swap PGs with Memphis.

      2 - That last year in Houston, Lowry was playing very well before he went down, and the team was playing well around him. Dragic clearly picked up the slack and continued to deliver, but I wouldn't go so far as to say it was a good decision not to give Lowry his job back (more like 50-50), and there were clearly some very deep issues between him and McHale to begin with that created issues for the team (they lost both Lowry and Dragic and only bailed themselves out with a hail mary for Lin, so you can't say that was handled well, and Lowry has the best contract of those three for a team). For instance, if DeMar went down for the Raptors, and someone stepped in and provide materially similar stats with the team performing identically and DeMar lost his job, does that mean he's suddenly a bad player? Should he even have lost his job? The Lowry situation at the end of the Houston tenure was ugly, and notice Dragic is a starter elsewhere as well. It's possible for teams to have multiple starting quality guys at a single position; in fact, it can create problems (just look at the double-center issue the Lakers are having right now), and in this case, it did.

      3 - With all that said, Lowry is in a terrible situation for the Raptors. The team will probably perform worse with him at the point than they will with Calderon; Lowry plays better when he can execute a drive and kick game, which means he needs shooters surrounding him. Other than Calderon and Bargnani (both of whom are minus defenders, one of whom creates an undersized backcourt when played with Lowry, and one of whom is slightly more lethargic than most sloths), who does Toronto even have with 3pt range to play alongside him? Calderon is the best point for this team right now because nobody can create a shot for themselves, and nobody can shoot the 3 reliably. In the same way, if you put Mike Conley or Brandon Jennings on this team, they'd probably be a worse fit for the Raptors than Calderon, but I doubt you're going to see any GMs trading either of those guys (despite what warts they may have) straight up for Calderon. The problem is the brutal offensive deficiency of the Raptors lineup; when you need nearly Steve Nash level passing just to get to league average, you're in bad shape. The reality is their two best offenses for the Raptors are Calderon creating shots for everyone else with his passing (and then giving up just as much on defense, which should lead you to a .500 or sub-.500 but non-terrible team, which is exactly what the Raps have been during his tenure) or Lowry going mid-2000s Kobe and trying to score 40+ a game because nobody else on the team can play offense.

      So with all that said, the problem isn't Lowry (he's pretty good if a bit selfish on offense, yet people often forget he's a ridiculously good individual defender and should be a big plus for most well constructed teams). It's terrible team management by the GM, a talent deficit on offense, and poorly fitting parts. Either you can top out as a borderline 8-seed with Calderon leading an attack, or you have to tear it down to build around Lowry with a very different cast, but that's your two options if you look at the point for the Raptors right now. Personally I'd go with Lowry and trade Calderon, because I'd rather have the upside and Calderon is probably out after this season anyways.

      Comment


      • #33
        Reinholt wrote: View Post
        A few points as someone who has watched a decent amount of Houston and Memphis ball...

        1 - I strongly disagree with you about Conley. Conley is a very underrated point; combined with Allen, the defense provided by the Memphis guards is one of the least talked about aspects of that team's success. He's a plus defensively, has three point range, and distributes the ball effectively within what is a very big-man oriented attack. If Gasol and Randolph (neither of whom need to be assisted for a decent number of their points, and the former of whom is an excellent passer himself that they often run the offense through) weren't on that team, you'd see a higher assist total for Conley, so the fact that he willingly plays a team game and defends like an angry wolverine hides his value somewhat (as those are not captured well by the box score). However, that shouldn't cause people to underestimate him. A lot of teams would probably swap PGs with Memphis.

        2 - That last year in Houston, Lowry was playing very well before he went down, and the team was playing well around him. Dragic clearly picked up the slack and continued to deliver, but I wouldn't go so far as to say it was a good decision not to give Lowry his job back (more like 50-50), and there were clearly some very deep issues between him and McHale to begin with that created issues for the team (they lost both Lowry and Dragic and only bailed themselves out with a hail mary for Lin, so you can't say that was handled well, and Lowry has the best contract of those three for a team). For instance, if DeMar went down for the Raptors, and someone stepped in and provide materially similar stats with the team performing identically and DeMar lost his job, does that mean he's suddenly a bad player? Should he even have lost his job? The Lowry situation at the end of the Houston tenure was ugly, and notice Dragic is a starter elsewhere as well. It's possible for teams to have multiple starting quality guys at a single position; in fact, it can create problems (just look at the double-center issue the Lakers are having right now), and in this case, it did.

        3 - With all that said, Lowry is in a terrible situation for the Raptors. The team will probably perform worse with him at the point than they will with Calderon; Lowry plays better when he can execute a drive and kick game, which means he needs shooters surrounding him. Other than Calderon and Bargnani (both of whom are minus defenders, one of whom creates an undersized backcourt when played with Lowry, and one of whom is slightly more lethargic than most sloths), who does Toronto even have with 3pt range to play alongside him? Calderon is the best point for this team right now because nobody can create a shot for themselves, and nobody can shoot the 3 reliably. In the same way, if you put Mike Conley or Brandon Jennings on this team, they'd probably be a worse fit for the Raptors than Calderon, but I doubt you're going to see any GMs trading either of those guys (despite what warts they may have) straight up for Calderon. The problem is the brutal offensive deficiency of the Raptors lineup; when you need nearly Steve Nash level passing just to get to league average, you're in bad shape. The reality is their two best offenses for the Raptors are Calderon creating shots for everyone else with his passing (and then giving up just as much on defense, which should lead you to a .500 or sub-.500 but non-terrible team, which is exactly what the Raps have been during his tenure) or Lowry going mid-2000s Kobe and trying to score 40+ a game because nobody else on the team can play offense.

        So with all that said, the problem isn't Lowry (he's pretty good if a bit selfish on offense, yet people often forget he's a ridiculously good individual defender and should be a big plus for most well constructed teams). It's terrible team management by the GM, a talent deficit on offense, and poorly fitting parts. Either you can top out as a borderline 8-seed with Calderon leading an attack, or you have to tear it down to build around Lowry with a very different cast, but that's your two options if you look at the point for the Raptors right now. Personally I'd go with Lowry and trade Calderon, because I'd rather have the upside and Calderon is probably out after this season anyways.
        Fantastic post!

        Comment


        • #34
          Nilanka wrote: View Post
          Fantastic post!
          Agreed. Reinholt did a great job here.
          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

          Comment


          • #35
            Reinholt wrote: View Post
            So with all that said, the problem isn't Lowry (he's pretty good if a bit selfish on offense, yet people often forget he's a ridiculously good individual defender and should be a big plus for most well constructed teams). It's terrible team management by the GM, a talent deficit on offense, and poorly fitting parts. Either you can top out as a borderline 8-seed with Calderon leading an attack, or you have to tear it down to build around Lowry with a very different cast, but that's your two options if you look at the point for the Raptors right now. Personally I'd go with Lowry and trade Calderon, because I'd rather have the upside and Calderon is probably out after this season anyways.
            That's pretty much the answer I was looking for, with apologies to Matt who wasn't able to convince me at all. How is not starting until your 5th year NOT relevant?

            So would you say that bringing in Lowry to begin with was a mistake? As you said, the make up of this team was not an environment in which Lowry could thrive in. But we traded a first round pick for him -- weak draft or not, the decision here was to trade future for a guy that was never going to be a good fit without other drastic changes to the roster which were obviously not made.

            I know your choice, but what's more likely to happen here -- building around Lowry who is currently being used as the backup point guard and bringing in guys who can create their own shot and shoot with range (we have several guys locked in already that don't do these things) and a few trading pieces that no one wants -- or is it more realistic to build around Calderon and improving other areas to carry us above that borderline 8th seed potential? Might not be a better option, but I see the latter as a more probable course of action.
            your pal,
            ebrian

            Comment


            • #36
              I'm not sure what it is with Lowry. He looks really off the last few games. Maybe it's what Matt alluded too, and that he is just too worried about spoon-feeding the rest of the guys and not concerned enough with his own game. But he has actually looked very slow-footed. He was blowing by guys at the start of the season and was getting anything he wanted at will. I see him constantly being cut off on his drives and forced into stupid passes/shots. Is the guy still injured? What gives? Has anyone else noticed this?

              Comment


              • #37
                ebrian wrote: View Post
                That's pretty much the answer I was looking for, with apologies to Matt who wasn't able to convince me at all. How is not starting until your 5th year NOT relevant?

                So would you say that bringing in Lowry to begin with was a mistake? As you said, the make up of this team was not an environment in which Lowry could thrive in. But we traded a first round pick for him -- weak draft or not, the decision here was to trade future for a guy that was never going to be a good fit without other drastic changes to the roster which were obviously not made.

                I know your choice, but what's more likely to happen here -- building around Lowry who is currently being used as the backup point guard and bringing in guys who can create their own shot and shoot with range (we have several guys locked in already that don't do these things) and a few trading pieces that no one wants -- or is it more realistic to build around Calderon and improving other areas to carry us above that borderline 8th seed potential? Might not be a better option, but I see the latter as a more probable course of action.
                I was thinking the same thing while reading Reinholt's message. He wasn't wrong, but the bigger question is whether or not Lowry should be built around, as opposed to with (similar approach doomed Bosh & Bargnani).

                So basically Lowry could be a good PG, but only if...
                1. Valanciunas develops into a solid C, capable of cleaning the offensive glass and hitting short jumpers consistently
                2. Davis/Amir play consistently as starting PF, like they did yesterday (and no long 2's please... looking at you Amir)
                3. SF & SG both need to be upgraded to players who can consistently hit 3pt shot (ie: NOT DeRozan, NOT Fields, but possibly Ross eventually)

                I'm not entirely convinced that's a good plan, but it's probably the best option this team currently has.

                I don't think building around/with Calderon as a starting PG is any better, considering he's 31 and far too old to be part of the team's long-term building plans.

                Comment


                • #38
                  My notes:

                  1 - Not starting until 5th year is a red herring when he was basically not playing his first two due to injuries, then got traded (and really only started after McGrady and Ming flamed out, because McGrady was the de-facto PG for them for the first half). Lowry is good enough to build around right now; Houston had a sub-par set of players around him and they played over .500 ball for two seasons.

                  2 -
                  So basically Lowry could be a good PG, but only if...
                  1. Valanciunas develops into a solid C, capable of cleaning the offensive glass and hitting short jumpers consistently
                  2. Davis/Amir play consistently as starting PF, like they did yesterday (and no long 2's please... looking at you Amir)
                  3. SF & SG both need to be upgraded to players who can consistently hit 3pt shot (ie: NOT DeRozan, NOT Fields, but possibly Ross eventually)
                  Disagree with most of that being relevant to Lowry. What team is going to succeed with a center who can't rebound or hit close in shots, inconsistent PF play, and SF/SG that can't consistently shoot the 3? I mean, you could put LeBron on this team for Lowry and they aren't winning a championship (and, quite frankly, the Raptors are worse than what LeBron had around him in Cleveland).

                  3 - You're locked into some bad contracts as the Raptors right now. At least Calderon is expiring (I have no issues with him as a player and he's probably a useful PG off the bench for a contender, but he's overpaid for what he brings), but Fields, Bargnani, and DeMar are not good contracts compared to other values around the league (this is not a commentary on them as players, but rather to say the value per dollar spent is not there from a cap perspective).

                  4 - So with all that, what do you do? It's a matter of preference. Being a borderline 8-seed with Calderon for 3-4 years before all this crap rolls off is one option (in which case, they should trade Lowry, as he instantly becomes their best trade asset in that case... also, Dallas seems to need a starting quality PG and has some shooters, just saying). The other is to tear down whatever you can, try to get out from under those guys if possible, and build a team around Lowry that can win. You have lower upside but lower downside in case one. You have higher upside but higher downside in case two. It's a matter of personal preference, but the punch line is either you trade Lowry to become a poor man's Milwaukee, or you trade Calderon and become anything from OKC to the Wizards.

                  Either way, take away BC's ball and send him home. He's done a terrible job; in stats speak, he's a worse than replacement level GM.
                  Last edited by Reinholt; Mon Jan 14, 2013, 03:09 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Reinholt wrote: View Post
                    My notes:

                    1 - Not starting until 5th year is a red herring when he was basically not playing his first two due to injuries, then got traded (and really only started after McGrady and Ming flamed out, because McGrady was the de-facto PG for them for the first half). Lowry is good enough to build around right now; Houston had a sub-par set of players around him and they played over .500 ball for two seasons.

                    2 -

                    Disagree with most of that being relevant to Lowry. What team is going to succeed with a center who can't rebound or hit close in shots, inconsistent PF play, and SF/SG that can't consistently shoot the 3? I mean, you could put LeBron on this team for Lowry and they aren't winning a championship (and, quite frankly, the Raptors are worse than what LeBron had around him in Cleveland).

                    3 - You're locked into some bad contracts as the Raptors right now. At least Calderon is expiring (I have no issues with him as a player, but he's overpaid for what he brings), but Fields, Bargnani, and DeMar are not good contracts compared to other values around the league (this is not a commentary on them as players, but rather to say the value per dollar spent is not there from a cap perspective).

                    4 - So with all that, what do you do? It's a matter of preference. Being a borderline 8-seed with Calderon for 3-4 years before all this crap rolls off is one option (in which case, they should trade Lowry, as he instantly becomes their best trade asset in that case). The other is to tear down whatever you can, try to get out from under those guys if possible, and build a team around Lowry that can win. You have lower upside but lower downside in case one. You have higher upside but higher downside in case two. It's a matter of personal preference, but the punch line is either you trade Lowry to become a poor man's Milwaukee, or you trade Calderon and become anything from OKC to the Wizards.

                    Either way, take away BC's ball and send him home. He's done a terrible job; in stats speak, he's a worse than replacement level GM.
                    For the record I don't disagree, I was just throwing out the notion of building around Lowry, as yet another false franchise cornerstone. It was more a worry about the expectations being heaped on him in that case, as opposed to a complaint about the potential structure of the roster in that scenario.

                    I'm not a huge DeRozan fan, especially in light of his new contract, so I'd have no issues trading him for a more well-rounded wing (*cough* Gay *cough*). I think Ross could be a really nice fit with a starting unit of Lowry/Gay/Valanciunas long-term. I'd love to see a more proven PF added to that starting unit, pushing Davis/Johnson to the 2nd unit (ie: Millsap), but it wouldn't be the end of the world having Davis & Amir as your 2 PFs.

                    The bottom line is that the ideal approach to build a team with Lowry as the long-term PG, would be for BC to turn Calderon & Bargnani & DeRozan & Kleiza & Johnson/Davis & spare parts (ie: Anderson, Pietrus, Gray, Lucas, Acy) into at least 1 stud wing and 1 stud PF, through some combination of trades/signings. Also, Valanciunas & Ross both need to develop well and develop quickly. It's not an impossible task, but it's not an easy one either.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      I do agree you can't win a championship with Lowry as your best player.

                      You probably can win a championship with Lowry as your second best player, however. That's probably something that can't be said about any other Raptor. That's why I think you keep him. You have to start somewhere.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                        True. I think he could be a long-term piece, but I just wouldn't put him in the same 'untouchable' category that I would put Valanciunas & Ross.
                        Oh yeah. Definitely agree.

                        The only untouchable for me is JV.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Reinholt: regardless of whether I agree with you or not, welcome to RR! I thoroughly enjoy reading posts such as these.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            ebrian wrote: View Post
                            That's pretty much the answer I was looking for, with apologies to Matt who wasn't able to convince me at all. How is not starting until your 5th year NOT relevant?

                            So would you say that bringing in Lowry to begin with was a mistake? As you said, the make up of this team was not an environment in which Lowry could thrive in. But we traded a first round pick for him -- weak draft or not, the decision here was to trade future for a guy that was never going to be a good fit without other drastic changes to the roster which were obviously not made.

                            I know your choice, but what's more likely to happen here -- building around Lowry who is currently being used as the backup point guard and bringing in guys who can create their own shot and shoot with range (we have several guys locked in already that don't do these things) and a few trading pieces that no one wants -- or is it more realistic to build around Calderon and improving other areas to carry us above that borderline 8th seed potential? Might not be a better option, but I see the latter as a more probable course of action.
                            I don't know. Ask Steve Nash.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              I think one of the biggest priorities for the remainder of the season should be really trying to understand what sort of asset they have in Davis. I love how he's grown as a player over the last year and especially the last couple months. But a lot of his chances are coming off of assists for easy looks, an improved jumper, second-chance points, and transition. The player that the Raptors need going forward (assuming the plan is to move forward with Lowry and not Calderon) is a post player to can be a primary option in the offense and create his own shot, demand a double-team, and pass out of it when it comes. This is, of course, assuming that Valanciunas is, as he's shown so far, at his best as a pick-and-roll player, setting a lot of high screens and then crashing the paint. Davis has shown a couple post moves that he can use effectively, but he's hardly at the level where he demands a double-team yet. His post game will improve over time simply by him putting on added mass so he can back guys down, but he needs more moves (or perhaps just more practice and confidence with the moves he has).

                              There's some very good bigs hitting free agency this year (Millsap, Smith, Jefferson, West, Hickson) and the Raptors need to make a decision about whether they can go forward with Davis, or whether they need to upgrade that position, because they might not get a better opportunity than this offseason.

                              I'd make him the first option in the offense for a while (after we get a couple of our injured bigs back), not because I think that's the Raptors' best strategy to win games, but because it'll will, at best, make him a better player and improve his confidence in the post, or at worst show that he's not going to be a key part of the Raptors core.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Reinholt wrote: View Post
                                A few points as someone who has watched a decent amount of Houston and Memphis ball...

                                1 - I strongly disagree with you about Conley. Conley is a very underrated point; combined with Allen, the defense provided by the Memphis guards is one of the least talked about aspects of that team's success. He's a plus defensively, has three point range, and distributes the ball effectively within what is a very big-man oriented attack. If Gasol and Randolph (neither of whom need to be assisted for a decent number of their points, and the former of whom is an excellent passer himself that they often run the offense through) weren't on that team, you'd see a higher assist total for Conley, so the fact that he willingly plays a team game and defends like an angry wolverine hides his value somewhat (as those are not captured well by the box score). However, that shouldn't cause people to underestimate him. A lot of teams would probably swap PGs with Memphis.

                                2 - That last year in Houston, Lowry was playing very well before he went down, and the team was playing well around him. Dragic clearly picked up the slack and continued to deliver, but I wouldn't go so far as to say it was a good decision not to give Lowry his job back (more like 50-50), and there were clearly some very deep issues between him and McHale to begin with that created issues for the team (they lost both Lowry and Dragic and only bailed themselves out with a hail mary for Lin, so you can't say that was handled well, and Lowry has the best contract of those three for a team). For instance, if DeMar went down for the Raptors, and someone stepped in and provide materially similar stats with the team performing identically and DeMar lost his job, does that mean he's suddenly a bad player? Should he even have lost his job? The Lowry situation at the end of the Houston tenure was ugly, and notice Dragic is a starter elsewhere as well. It's possible for teams to have multiple starting quality guys at a single position; in fact, it can create problems (just look at the double-center issue the Lakers are having right now), and in this case, it did.

                                3 - With all that said, Lowry is in a terrible situation for the Raptors. The team will probably perform worse with him at the point than they will with Calderon; Lowry plays better when he can execute a drive and kick game, which means he needs shooters surrounding him. Other than Calderon and Bargnani (both of whom are minus defenders, one of whom creates an undersized backcourt when played with Lowry, and one of whom is slightly more lethargic than most sloths), who does Toronto even have with 3pt range to play alongside him? Calderon is the best point for this team right now because nobody can create a shot for themselves, and nobody can shoot the 3 reliably. In the same way, if you put Mike Conley or Brandon Jennings on this team, they'd probably be a worse fit for the Raptors than Calderon, but I doubt you're going to see any GMs trading either of those guys (despite what warts they may have) straight up for Calderon. The problem is the brutal offensive deficiency of the Raptors lineup; when you need nearly Steve Nash level passing just to get to league average, you're in bad shape. The reality is their two best offenses for the Raptors are Calderon creating shots for everyone else with his passing (and then giving up just as much on defense, which should lead you to a .500 or sub-.500 but non-terrible team, which is exactly what the Raps have been during his tenure) or Lowry going mid-2000s Kobe and trying to score 40+ a game because nobody else on the team can play offense.

                                So with all that said, the problem isn't Lowry (he's pretty good if a bit selfish on offense, yet people often forget he's a ridiculously good individual defender and should be a big plus for most well constructed teams). It's terrible team management by the GM, a talent deficit on offense, and poorly fitting parts. Either you can top out as a borderline 8-seed with Calderon leading an attack, or you have to tear it down to build around Lowry with a very different cast, but that's your two options if you look at the point for the Raptors right now. Personally I'd go with Lowry and trade Calderon, because I'd rather have the upside and Calderon is probably out after this season anyways.
                                Kaboom. I couldn't have said this any better.

                                Perfect example is last night vs the bucks. Clearly, Lowry's role has not been fully established after coming back from injury. He's not the starter, but seems to play heavy minutes and close games, unless, he was as bad as yesterday. But he wasnt bad because his game stunk, he was bad because he's not playing his game. When he came in after Jose got injured, it was way too obvious that he was trying to feed Ed and Amir, i mean i want him to pass, but not at the expense of him losing his own style of play. And the the problem was he couldnt find Ed and Amir in their spots, because again he does not play like that. He was passing off shots trying to look to pass most of the time. Sure Jose comes in and gets Ed and Amir buckets. But if they play against bigs and Ed and Amir have trouble scoring, whats Jose going to do? What im saying is you need your PG to be able to get defenses guessing, if he's going to pass, penetrate, shoot the three, and Lowry is that type of PG.

                                Lowry, Ross, Gay, Ed, JV. Thats the ticket right there!!

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