Why do Raptors fans think we are better than Wizards and Hornets?

[raptors999]

I also like how TOR is 4-0 against Philly but WAS is only 2-1, while also losing 2/3 games to TOR. Seems like your analysis of WAS having a harder schedule is entirely predicated on the assumption that they are simply a worse team.

Toronto is assumed to go 3-1 vs Philly - 12-4 means 3-1 against the Atlantic they went 11-5 last season. Washington is assumed to go 2-1 vs Toronto and 1-2 vs Philly. They could easily go 3-0 vs Toronto and 3-0 vs Philly. The rule is 6 games vs 2 teams ends in a 3-3 record for both.

[S.R.]

DanH = Bud Abbot



Or Sisyphus, but I don't like to call people Sisyphus, so let's stick with Bud.

[DanH]

Toronto is assumed to go 3-1 vs Philly - 12-4 means 3-1 against the Atlantic they went 11-5 last season. Washington is assumed to go 2-1 vs Toronto and 1-2 vs Philly. They could easily go 3-0 vs Toronto and 3-0 vs Philly. The rule is 6 games vs 2 teams ends in a 3-3 record for both.

Hmm. Let's see...

Let's try laying it all out.

WAS plays, in the Atlantic division:
TOR 3 times
BOS 3 times
NYK 4 times
BKN 4 times
PHI 4 times
WAS plays, in the SE division:
ATL 4 times
MIA 4 times
CHA 4 times
ORL 4 times

TOR plays, in the Atlantic division:
BOS 4 times
NYK 4 times
BKN 4 times
PHI 4 times
TOR plays, in the SE division:
ATL 4 times
MIA 3 times
CHA 4 times
ORL 4 times
WAS 3 times

The same can be done for CHA, but we'll stick with the WAS example.

Now, I laid it all out there, and I am sure you can tell there's a lot of overlap between the two data sets. So to simplify and make it more obvious, we can just look at the differences, then we can play with percentages all we like to see what the impact is.

The overlap is: WAS vs TOR 3 games, BOS 3 games, NYK 4 games, BKN 4 games, PHI 4 games, ATL 4 games, MIA 3 games, CHA 4 games, ORL 4 games. One would assume both teams would achieve the same result from these games as a baseline, since we are comparing schedule on the assumption that they are roughly equivalent teams.

The leftover games are:
WAS vs MIA
TOR vs BOS

So, absolute best case in favour of your argument is that MIA is just freaking unbeatable, and that BOS is so terrible they go 0-82, and WAS walks out with 1 loss and TOR walks out with 1 win. That's a 1 win swing. At most. Period.

More realistically, we apply a chance of winning - MIA certainly isn't head and shoulders above WAS or TOR, probably about even. So 0.5 wins for WAS. And we could say BOS has a 25% chance of upsetting TOR, or we could assume they really are terrible. Even then, true difference between their schedules because of their divisions is between 0.25 and 0.5 wins.

[raptors999]

Winning %
Toronto .585
Washington .537


Toronto 3-1 vs Division
12-4 (.750)

Washinton 2-2 vs Division and 3-1 vs Orlando
9-7 (.562)

Toronto vs SE Split Mia+Wiz, 2-2 vs Cha, Atla and 3-1 vs Orlando
10-8 (.556)

Washington vs Atlantic Split Tor+Boston 3-1 vs NYK,BKN,PHILLY
12-6 (.667)

In other words if Toronto has a lower winning % against the SE than their overall percentage and Washington plays better than their winning % against their division and the Atlantic by alot the difference is still +1.

[raptors999]

Toronto has to go 7- 5 (.583) vs Atlanta, Cha and Orlando but Washington has to go 9-3 vs BKN,NYK and Philly (.750) for the difference to be 1 game

[iblastoff]

BR has us winning 44 games while wizards take 45. but once again we're 3rd seed due to shitty division.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...d-playoff-odds

[DanH]

Toronto has to go 7- 5 (.583) vs Atlanta, Cha and Orlando but Washington has to go 9-3 vs BKN,NYK and Philly (.750) for the difference to be 1 game

I completely give up. If my last post didn't clear it up for you and you are still going to stick with making up numbers, we're never going to get anywhere.

[raptors999]

Boston, Orlando and Philly will be under 30%
NYK and BKN will be under 50 but over 30
Toronto loses 2 games to teams over .500
Wash loses a game to a team under .300 and loses a game to a team over .500

Toronto faces
2 teams over .500 4 times
2 teams over .500 3 times
2 teams between .300-.500 4 times
3 teams under .300 4 times

Washington faces
3 teams over .500 4 Times
1 teams over .500 3 times
2 teams between .300-.500 4 times
2 teams under .300 4 time
1 team under .300 1 time

Toronto can have at most 3 games and at worst 1 game advantage. We play the worst teams Boston, Philly and Orlando 12 times. Both Charlotte and Wiz lose 1 sure win. Toronto loses 2 50-50 games

[DanH]

And we're still making up numbers.

[Uncle_Si]

The more you know the more complicated you realize things are. The less you know, the simpler you think they are.