Jason Goff. "Raptors will take a step back". Aug 12,2014

[Papa Burgundy]

Demar has had a career year every single year ... coming back better with new tools, and this year it's handle.

All Lowry needs to do is play how he did after the Gay trade. Expecting anything but near last year's performance is off, but expecting him to now drop off after getting paid doesn't seem right.

Jonas and Ross - hard to see them not improving significantly from start of last year ... that's not being a homer ... young players who work hard and have skills, they improve!

[mcHAPPY]

The career years is a valid point.

However Raps have two starters who were 2nd year last season. You don't think they continue to improve?

I think it is a wash and raps are just as good as last year to slightly better.

I'm going with 51/52 wins.

[mcHAPPY]

NBA sked out tomorrow at 6 ET. Raptors schedule will be interesting, with world junior tourney forcing Raptors and Leafs to road for weeks

— Ryan Wolstat (@WolstatSun) August 12, 2014

Week long road trips? Definitely gonna take a step back

No different than lakers/clippers with Grammys (or some other award show, not sure)
Bulls with circus
Spurs with rodeo


There are a few teams each year who have extended road trip due to venue being unavailable for another annual event.

[S.R.]

I don't like the career year thing at all. I leave that analysis to three situations:

1. The Mike James Career Year. A borderline talent is given the green light on a crappy team and ends up with great personal stats in write-off year.
2. The Nash Effect. A player ends up with inflated stats because of a perfect fit with either a superstar teammate or in a perfectly suited system. Said player isn't well rounded enough or talented enough to repeat this type of performance in a different environment.
3. The Contract Year. 'Nuff said.

The Raps, as mentioned above, who had "career years" had them because they're young guys who are still developing and growing into their roles. This was Lowry's first year with this level of leadership and responsibility, and he stepped up. Ditto for DeRozan. GV has shown he's talented enough to be a borderline starter - he's more than capable of handling back-up duties.

My only concerns moving forward are Amir's health and Lowry's weight. Lowry's clearly a guy who will put on weight very easily, but he's also hyper-competitive. I expect him to do what he needs to do to continue performing at last year's level. Amir's minutes should be managed carefully so he's 100% for the playoffs.

Even if you predict 50 wins, that's already a step back from their post-Gay-trade winning percentage. A team that went 17-5 (or whatever) against the Western Conference is no joke.

[DanH]

I don't like the career year thing at all. I leave that analysis to three situations:

1. The Mike James Career Year. A borderline talent is given the green light on a crappy team and ends up with great personal stats in write-off year.
2. The Nash Effect. A player ends up with inflated stats because of a perfect fit with either a superstar teammate or in a perfectly suited system. Said player isn't well rounded enough or talented enough to repeat this type of performance in a different environment.
3. The Contract Year. 'Nuff said.

The Raps, as mentioned above, who had "career years" had them because they're young guys who are still developing and growing into their roles. This was Lowry's first year with this level of leadership and responsibility, and he stepped up. Ditto for DeRozan. GV has shown he's talented enough to be a borderline starter - he's more than capable of handling back-up duties.

My only concerns moving forward are Amir's health and Lowry's weight. Lowry's clearly a guy who will put on weight very easily, but he's also hyper-competitive. I expect him to do what he needs to do to continue performing at last year's level. Amir's minutes should be managed carefully so he's 100% for the playoffs.

Even if you predict 50 wins, that's already a step back from their post-Gay-trade winning percentage. A team that went 17-5 (or whatever) against the Western Conference is no joke.

To that point, though, Lowry, Patterson and GV, three guys who had big years, were all in contract years. So that logic certainly applies.

Personally I'm still seeing 50+ wins from this group though. Would actually be a step back from their post-Gay team (looking at the schedule pre-Gay I pegged the post-Gay team at 11-7 in that stretch, meaning 53 wins on the year). And I think Jonas is going to be great this year, and between him and adding bench depth (no more Salmons), the effects of Lowry et al coming down off their career years a bit should be balanced out.

[psrs1]

While I guess it is valid to recognize that yes, a few of our main guys played some of the best ball they ever will last year, its also important to recognize two guys who haven't yet: Jonas and Terrence, two guys primed to take big steps forward.

Also, it should definitely be mentioned that the biggest knock on our team last year was a lack of experience (think of Demar in game one), which, while most of our players are far from seasoned veterans, will definitely not be as big an issue.

Though, you never know. Even still, if we find ourselves with 45 wins fighting for the sixth or seventh seed, not totally meeting expectations, the NBA is still a league where when you peak is as important as how great your potential is. I think it would be hard to argue that this team, after another year of meshing and development, couldn't give any Eastern team trouble in the playoffs.

Can't wait for the season.

Seeding and match ups will be critical.

[Mediumcore]

i could see it

he's not completely wrong about the career year thing. didn't read the article or whatever but i'm guessing he figures everyone doesn't step it up again like they did last year. it's not out of the realm of possibility. especially specific, important players. now that lowry's paid does he play balls out? does DD play at an all star level again? we'll see. what about injuries? raps were insanely lucky last year with injuries. a guy like Lowry, DD or JV missing significant time would be a huge blow.

on paper we're better, but paper can't tell you about injuries or effort.

That's a good point about injuries last season. The Raptors were really lucky not to lose any of the core guys for long periods, especially with the way Lowry plays. Smart on Masaii's part to make the roster deeper going into this season.

[S.R.]

That's a good point about injuries last season. The Raptors were really lucky not to lose any of the core guys for long periods, especially with the way Lowry plays. Smart on Masaii's part to make the roster deeper going into this season.

Just noticed a Pelicans fan tweet that their top 6 lost 200 games to injury last season. Between Lowry, DeRozan, Amir, JV, Ross, Gay, Vasquez, and Patterson last year, the Raps only lost 28 games to injury, and 14 of those belonged to PatPat. Crazy!

Still, the 0.66 winning percentage post-Gay would project to 54 wins over a full season. In a sense even maintaining 48 wins would be a step back.

[white men can't jump]

Just noticed a Pelicans fan tweet that their top 6 lost 200 games to injury last season. Between Lowry, DeRozan, Amir, JV, Ross, Gay, Vasquez, and Patterson last year, the Raps only lost 28 games to injury, and 14 of those belonged to PatPat. Crazy!

Still, the 0.66 winning percentage post-Gay would project to 54 wins over a full season. In a sense even maintaining 48 wins would be a step back.

Can't predict injuries though. It's pretty much impossible to predict their effect because it's impossible to predict which teams will have it better than others.

For the Raps, or really any team, the thing to avoid is a major injury. Then you just hope depth is good enough to deal with any other minor injuries.

[thead]

my gut says we are fine. 50 wins 3rd seed 2nd round playoff exit

[thead]

Can't predict injuries though.

I bet you a million dollars and a half hearted BJ that Amir rolls his ankle

I accept your apology for questioning my prognosticating

[white men can't jump]

I bet you a million dollars and a half hearted BJ that Amir rolls his ankle

I accept your apology for questioning my prognosticating

Ah but will he miss games from it?

[S.R.]

I bet you a million dollars and a half hearted BJ that Amir rolls his ankle

I accept your apology for questioning my prognosticating

Pretty sure Amir wakes up every morning, puts his feet on the floor, and rolls both ankles before standing up.

[Mediumcore]

Just noticed a Pelicans fan tweet that their top 6 lost 200 games to injury last season. Between Lowry, DeRozan, Amir, JV, Ross, Gay, Vasquez, and Patterson last year, the Raps only lost 28 games to injury, and 14 of those belonged to PatPat. Crazy!

Still, the 0.66 winning percentage post-Gay would project to 54 wins over a full season. In a sense even maintaining 48 wins would be a step back.

Yeah, I'd be curious to know what this Geoff guy meant by step back. Was he referring to win totals or did he mean out of the playoffs. Wins and losses aside, due to the East evening out, I would think for a team that was bounced in the first round, a step back means not making the playoffs at all.

[gametime]

I bet you a million dollars and a half hearted BJ that Amir rolls his ankle
I accept your apology for questioning my prognosticating

If he keeps wearing those jordan's, you're gonna be buying a lot of lipbalm... *sighs, lol