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Basically it boils down to this: Lowry is either going to get a max offer (16m+) from a team looking to jump up in a hurry or he won't get that.
If he gets one, he's getting one from the likes of Detroit (move Jennings to SG - or try to dump him to another team somehow), the Knicks (sign and trade for Amare + picks), the Lakers (sign and trade Nash + picks), Houston (sign and trade Lin/Asik + picks) or maybeeeee Orlando (move Oladipo back to SG where he belongs, use their good pick this year on a quality wing or PF instead of a point guard) or Milwaukee (your classic "new owners overpay for a star" move). Because signing Lowry is a win-now move for anybody else, and most other teams are either not in win-now mode or already have answers at PG.
If Lowry gets a max deal and wants to match - we can't afford that, not realistically, so we wish him the best and move on, probably pull some trades to make sure Tyler Ennis shows up in Toronto and the fans will forgive all concerned.
If Lowry DOESN'T get the max deal offer from someone else (and he may well not - he's still an attitude case to a lot of people in the league and a lot of smart people have said, over and over, that he's found his fit here), then we offer him a generous but not crazy deal - I think we top out at $12.5m per year for four years, which gives Lowry a $50m deal overall (which is the sort of silly thing that can matter to a player's pride - "X SIGNS $50M DEAL" is a headline to be proud of, after all, moreso than 48m or 46m).
If he gets one, he's getting one from the likes of Detroit (move Jennings to SG - or try to dump him to another team somehow), the Knicks (sign and trade for Amare + picks), the Lakers (sign and trade Nash + picks), Houston (sign and trade Lin/Asik + picks) or maybeeeee Orlando (move Oladipo back to SG where he belongs, use their good pick this year on a quality wing or PF instead of a point guard) or Milwaukee (your classic "new owners overpay for a star" move). Because signing Lowry is a win-now move for anybody else, and most other teams are either not in win-now mode or already have answers at PG.
If Lowry gets a max deal and wants to match - we can't afford that, not realistically, so we wish him the best and move on, probably pull some trades to make sure Tyler Ennis shows up in Toronto and the fans will forgive all concerned.
If Lowry DOESN'T get the max deal offer from someone else (and he may well not - he's still an attitude case to a lot of people in the league and a lot of smart people have said, over and over, that he's found his fit here), then we offer him a generous but not crazy deal - I think we top out at $12.5m per year for four years, which gives Lowry a $50m deal overall (which is the sort of silly thing that can matter to a player's pride - "X SIGNS $50M DEAL" is a headline to be proud of, after all, moreso than 48m or 46m).
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