Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Everything Bargnani

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • As Bargnani falls flat, so do the Raptors

    Source.
    Whether they intended to or not (and they probably didn’t, at least to this degree), the Raptors have hitched a lot of their franchise to Andrea Bargnani. And in the first season that he’s actually had to prove he’s worth top dog status, Bargnani has basically fallen on his face.

    So have the Raptors.

    They’re competitive, they try hard and they’ve been hit by injuries big and small, but the Raptors have lost 12 straight games, they’ve only won five of their last 30 and they are playing dispiriting hoops on both ends of the floor.

    If it weren’t for Cleveland’s misery, we’d be talking more about this dismal team and its uncertain future. The Raptors sit 29th in points allowed per possession, which isn’t a surprise. Their defense has long been miserable, and there was no reason to expect much improvement this season. What’s more disturbing is the degree to which their offense has regressed. After another stinker Monday in Indiana, the Raptors are tied (with the Timberwolves) at No. 21 in offensive efficiency. This was the fifth-best offensive team in the league last season.

    This isn’t all on Bargnani, obviously, though his shooting has dipped as his burden has increased. He and Jose Calderon, a better offensive point guard than most realize, have both been dealing with leg injuries. Jerryd Bayless, too. Reggie Evans has been out for months, Linas Kleiza has missed time with a sore knee and Sonny Weems’ back kept him out of the lineup for weeks. Most of these guys aren’t much better than league average even at their best, but the trickle-down effect of losing a bunch of so-so guys can be devastating.

    And it’s not all Bargnani’s fault that Toronto’s defense is broken. And, man, is it broken. Check out the Raptors’ lineup data: You have to scroll all the way down to their 10th most commonly used lineup to find a five-man group that has been anything better than awful defensively. That’s right — the nine lineups Toronto has used most have all played like sieves on defense. That is basically unheard of in the NBA; even bad defensive teams have a couple of scrappy lineups they can use to get some stops. Seriously, check out the numbers for Cleveland; even the league’s worst defensive team has two lineups that have performed well defensively in more than 100 minutes together.

    When basically all of a team’s core lineups struggle defensively, something is systematically wrong. There is one player all nine of those units have in common: Bargnani.


    Again, it’s not all on him. Calderon tries hard, but he can’t stay in front of anyone and he falls further behind than most point guards on pick-and-rolls. DeMar DeRozan is hit or miss and sometimes fails to close out on guys adequately. Evans, when he’s healthy, is always out of position. And Bargnani is better at some aspects of defense — one-on-one work in the post, for instance — than he gets credit for being.

    But you can’t excuse Bargnani, no matter how badly Evans might want everyone to lay off. Not when Josh McRoberts grabs an offensive rebound on the left side of the rim, sees a 7-foot center in his way and decides, “Hey, I’ll just ram my shoulder into his chest, move him and dunk the ball in his face” (see the 7:41 mark of the third quarter Monday). Not when Jeff Foster, upon seeing a Mike Dunleavy jumper go up, simply slides in front of Bargnani, boxes him out and snags an offensive rebound (see the 3:51 mark of the third quarter). And not when the Raptors’ announce team, proud homers and defenders of Bargnani, are now openly pining for Ed Davis to get more minutes.


    If you watch the Raptors, you know these are not isolated things. And it’s the rebounding, of course, that still grates on you. More than halfway through the season, Bargnani is grabbing 5.6 boards per 36 minutes — tied for the worst mark of his career and on pace to be one of the very worst marks a guy at least 6-10 has put up in the entire history of the NBA. Bargnani has rebounded 9.1 percent of all misses while on the floor this season. If you’re not familiar with rebounding percentage, you need to understand how awful that is. Just now — one minute before I wrote this sentence — I closed my eyes and thought of the first random wing player that entered my mind. It was Paul Pierce. But Pierce is a good rebounder for his position, so I started over, thinking the comparison would be unfair.

    Next guy to pop into my head: Travis Outlaw. His rebounding rate so far this season: 8.7 percent, a tad below his career rate of 9.3 percent.

    Over the first few weeks of the season, we could excuse this (at least a bit), because Reggie Evans was on the court grabbing every rebound that came near him. It seemed a perfect if untenable fit — Evans could concentrate on rebounding and Bargnani could concentrate on scoring and containing pick-and-rolls.

    But Evans has been gone for months, and the numbers haven’t changed. And the Raptors rank 23rd in defensive rebounding, so there are plenty of boards to be had.

    Bargnani is scheduled to earn $41.5 million over the four seasons after this one. And right now, at 25 and in his prime, he does not look worth it. He’s a fine third option, but he’s not carrying your team anywhere — not right now.

    Which raises another question: Where can this team go from here? It won’t have much cap room after this season if it exercises team options on Weems, Julian Wright and Joey Dorsey (far from certain) — and if Leandro Barbosa exercises his $7.6 million player option (would seem likely). The Raptors’ core right now would seem to consist entirely of Bargnani, Davis, DeRozan and Amir Johnson.

    And that’s not a bad start, really. Davis is clearly a keeper. Johnson is putting up the best numbers of his career even if he still fouls too much, and he has improved his ability to finish non-dunks on pick-and-rolls. DeRozan has come on in fits. He’s not ready to be a second option on a good team, but he gets to the line a lot and has shown flashes lately of being a serviceable passer on side pick-and-rolls. (And if I’m a Raptors fan, I want the team running a lot of those down the stretch, in hopes that DeRozan could emerge soon as an Eric Gordon-style pick-and-roll option).

    Depending on how the new collective bargaining agreement looks, the Raps should have some nice cap room after next season. Barbosa will be an expiring contract a year from now, and Calderon’s deal, which expires after 2012-13, becomes more tradeable every day.

    There will be opportunities, and the front office is going to have to nail them, because the current core looks more “so-so” than “foundation of a future contender.”
    Whether we like it or not, Bargnani must be scoring at a decent clip for the team to have a chance of winning. (Because he's going to being playing 30 minutes regardless...)

    Comment


    • Already being discussed.
      http://raptorsrepublic.com/forums/sh...nd-the-Raptors
      But I agree, we NEED him for anything we plan on doing.

      Comment


      • joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
        I didn't change ANYTHING in my posts dude. I stated that fact earlier.
        Then I simply spelt it all out agaain, a bit easier and clearer this time, because I really want to figure out this Chris Paul v. Jason Terry reference you made. Its fascinating.
        So you were ONLY making the comparison based ONE catergory.
        Fine. I concede.
        Based on a 6 (or 4 depends which pair you're looking at) point contribution, from catergory in this RIDICULOUS article, Amir Johnson vs. Andrea Bargnani is NEARLY EQUIVALENT to comparing Chris Paul vs. Jason Terry. Commendable Analytical skills. Whether its Millsap vs. KD or the other, all you are doing is taking ONE catergory and finding two guys that are seperated by numbers. Big F'in deal.
        1. You've changed something in both your last post and the first one I referenced. The little noted that starts with 'last edited by...' at the bottom tells me so.

        2. All I'm trying to point out is that:
        a) if you're going to use that list to call Bargs an all-star, then you'd better be ready to concede that by the very same freaking list, Amir is a better player by a fairly wide margin (and by the same margin as the other pairs I listed) and that,
        b) the list itself is deeply, deeply flawed and shouldn't be taken as an effective way to measure players.

        Comment


        • Nine New Faces wrote: View Post
          1. You've changed something in both your last post and the first one I referenced. The little noted that starts with 'last edited by...' at the bottom tells me so.
          I'm allowed to edit my posts.. usually just fix minor grammer mistakes or spelling errors. But thanks for noticing.

          Nine New Faces wrote: View Post
          2. All I'm trying to point out is that:
          a) if you're going to use that list to call Bargs an all-star, then you'd better be ready to concede that by the very same freaking list, Amir is a better player by a fairly wide margin (and by the same margin as the other pairs I listed) and that,
          I've never ONCE stated this list is even remotely close to accurate, or close to my what my opinon of an All-Star is. Bargnani is NOT an All-Star. All I've stated is that you're making this SWEEPING comparison, based on ONE CATERGORY, and using terms like "HUGE MARGIN" when I've clearly proven there IS NO huge margin at all!

          Nine New Faces wrote: View Post
          b) the list itself is deeply, deeply flawed and shouldn't be taken as an effective way to measure players.
          We agree.
          Last edited by Joey; Tue Feb 1, 2011, 07:07 PM.

          Comment


          • I often get upset at basketball judgments based purely on statistics (see Hollinger, John), but they can provide useful information. Most progressive NBA teams use them a lot.

            Wayne Winston is a prof at Indiana University and has worked for the Mavs for almost a decade. He's definitely no slouch in this business. Henry Abbott at True Hoop often turns to Winston for analysis. One example, and a great introduction to Winston's theories: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...-isn-t-bashful

            So disagree with him, and with his analysis of Bargnani and Amir if you like - but realize that Winston is pretty respected in many NBA circles.

            Comment


            • joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
              I've never ONCE stated this list is even remotely close to accurate, or close to my what my opinon of an All-Star is. Bargnani is NOT an All-Star. All I've stated is that you're making this SWEEPING comparison, based on ONE CATERGORY, and using terms like "HUGE MARGIN" when I've clearly proven there IS NO huge margin at all!
              So let me get this straight.

              I respond to Multipaul stating that he doesn't understand the very list he's quoting by explaining how the list works, and you jump all over me for showing how the list compares players in a ridiculous way? Am I understanding this right, that the only reason you jumped in was to bash me for my 'huge margin' comment, which was only being used to illustrate how fucked up the list is in the first place?

              Ok then...

              Comment


              • Raptomist wrote: View Post
                I often get upset at basketball judgments based purely on statistics (see Hollinger, John), but they can provide useful information. Most progressive NBA teams use them a lot.

                Wayne Winston is a prof at Indiana University and has worked for the Mavs for almost a decade. He's definitely no slouch in this business. Henry Abbott at True Hoop often turns to Winston for analysis. One example, and a great introduction to Winston's theories: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...-isn-t-bashful

                So disagree with him, and with his analysis of Bargnani and Amir if you like - but realize that Winston is pretty respected in many NBA circles.
                It's not that we 'disagree' with his findings; it's more the wording, or intent of the article. In my opinion.

                If he is saying 'These guys should play in LA, and not the team that is selected by fans and coaches', then I do disagree with him wholeheartedly.

                If he is simply saying 'These guys are the "All-Stars" of their teams and contribute the majority of that teams Stats in such and such catergories. And by "percentage" contribute 'more' then Kobe or Dwight.' Then you can't disagree.

                But this essentially rewards Good Players on Bad Teams, and the All-Star game is really about the Best Players on the Best Teams. (and a few popular mediocre players.)
                Last edited by Joey; Tue Feb 1, 2011, 07:27 PM.

                Comment


                • IL MAGO!!!!

                  Don't mess with the italian stallion...

                  Can barly move, yet don't complain one bit thats the sign of a fighter!

                  Where were those articles when healthy Bargnani he was dropping 25+ per game .. That's what I thought.. Anyone can hate when player is injured and underperforming.. True fans would realize this... Nobody is calling him the franchise.. but unfortuantly we don't have a lebron or wade to lead our team and that curtainly is not Andrea's fault.

                  Comment


                  • Nine New Faces wrote: View Post
                    So let me get this straight.

                    I respond to Multipaul stating that he doesn't understand the very list he's quoting by explaining how the list works, and you jump all over me for showing how the list compares players in a ridiculous way? Am I understanding this right, that the only reason you jumped in was to bash me for my 'huge margin' comment, which was only being used to illustrate how fucked up the list is in the first place?

                    Ok then...
                    I just didn't understand the comparison and I made that clear in my first post to you. Thats ALL it was about.
                    I didn't jump all over anyone. If you felt that way, then I apologize. I just wanted to talk about the comparison you made.

                    Comment


                    • DunkinDerozan wrote: View Post
                      IL MAGO!!!!

                      Don't mess with the italian stallion...

                      Can barly move, yet don't complain one bit thats the sign of a fighter!

                      Where were those articles when healthy Bargnani he was dropping 25+ per game .. That's what I thought.. Anyone can hate when player is injured and underperforming.. True fans would realize this... Nobody is calling him the franchise.. but unfortuantly we don't have a lebron or wade to lead our team and that curtainly is not Andrea's fault.
                      I do agree with this (minus the whole 'Italian Stallion' thing). He could be sitting and saving his stats. ala Chris Bosh. or making it an excuse but he has not. Which I do respect. He hasn't used it once. And I think he really is hurting.
                      However, that said.. he's 7' tall. He can grab a rebound in a wheel chair if he REALLY wanted too.
                      Last edited by Joey; Tue Feb 1, 2011, 07:42 PM.

                      Comment


                      • I understand if people defend players because facts are not as black and white. It's another when one blatantly ignores numbers, visual proof by watching games, etc. These people could be on fire yet blame the sun for the heat. That's the beauty of following athletes and teams. Fans can relate to the "battles" that athletes go through should they choose to do so. You know, going through adversity, battling through competition, etc. What happens then when the guy that you once idolized due to his perseverance to excel in tough situations through skill and determination, no longer display the desire? The numbers show it, the games show it, the team record shows it.

                        I guess in the end, frustration could go to hate or simply stay as frustration. Just because people are now starting to look at numbers, watch games and read statistical analysis doesn't make one a hater. Being a hater means you do just that - express disdain towards someone or something without any valid reason. In Barg's case, there's plenty of evidence to suggest why people are frustrated more so than mere hating.
                        “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

                        Comment


                        • Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
                          I understand if people defend players because facts are not as black and white. It's another when one blatantly ignores numbers, visual proof by watching games, etc. These people could be on fire yet blame the sun for the heat. That's the beauty of following athletes and teams. Fans can relate to the "battles" that athletes go through should they choose to do so. You know, going through adversity, battling through competition, etc. What happens then when the guy that you once idolized due to his perseverance to excel in tough situations through skill and determination, no longer display the desire? The numbers show it, the games show it, the team record shows it.

                          I guess in the end, frustration could go to hate or simply stay as frustration. Just because people are now starting to look at numbers, watch games and read statistical analysis doesn't make one a hater. Being a hater means you do just that - express disdain towards someone or something without any valid reason. In Barg's case, there's plenty of evidence to suggest why people are frustrated more so than mere hating.
                          Stop hating with your attempts of objectivity.

                          This was a fantastic article though, thoroughly researched.

                          Comment


                          • I'd forgotten where I heard the name Wayne Winston, and then I remember an old Bill Simmons article where he quoted him. Winston once wrote a column/article saying:

                            1. Kevin Durant made the 2008-09 Sonics worse and
                            2. Tim Thomas was underrated.

                            Here's the article:

                            http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2...flpicks/091120

                            (To be fair, Winston did respond, saying that you can make a CASE that these 2 things were true, implied that Durant was just going through 'rookie growing pains' and he fully expected Durant to be an all star: http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=232)

                            Simmons and Henry Abbott did a podcast last week talking about advanced stats and how flawed they are and how in the game of basketball, you really don't have any measurable way to really tell how a player is. Someone reading Jose Calderon's stats that didn't know basketball would assume he's a very good offensive PG (which he is), but couldn't never tell he can't guard 3/4 of the league without a cattle prod. Conversely, while Ed Davis's stats look pedestrian, it doesn't tell the story about how even at an early age, he has lane presence on the defensive end.

                            It's nice to know that we're so passionate that we're debating over the best player on the 3rd worst team in the league. There are stats that say he's great (amongst Centres, he's 2nd in scoring, 1st in FT%). There are stats that say he's Kwame Brown 2.0 (amongst Centres, he's 18th in rebounding, 12th in FG%, 11th in True FG%). But you can't REALLY get a full picture unless you see him play. Personally, I think he's dogs--t, but hey, I could be wrong. But as soon as they come up with a stat that measures "times you passively let someone smaller than you grab an offensive rebound", I can prove that.

                            Comment


                            • Also from cnnsi power rankings
                              http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...ngs/index.html
                              "Few players are less productive than Andrea Bargnani when his shot isn't falling. In the last two games, the 7-footer has gone 8-for-39 from the field; during the last five, he is 1-for-18 from three-point range. But porous defense is the primary cause of Toronto's 12-game losing streak. The Raptors exhibit probably the worst fundamentals of any NBA team, as they are frequently caught out of position not only in their rotations but also in the way they square up or play the angles between the men they are guarding and the basket. They are last in the league at taking charges, defensive efficiency and field-goal defense. They don't have anyone who is well above average at protecting the rim (although rookie Ed Davis shows promise) or anyone who can really lock down his man on the perimeter. So, even when he's hot, Bargnani is usually just reducing the margin of their loss."

                              Comment


                              • joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
                                ...And I think he really is hurting.
                                i think you left 'the team' off the end of that statement. i'll assume it was a simple oversight...
                                TRUE LOVE - Sometimes you know it the instant you see it across the bar.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X