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Lowe: NBA Offseason Moves: Who Won?

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  • #31
    white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    But the thing about Gay compared to Iguodala and Smith, is that he's better at getting you buckets in lower percentage situations for your team. He's slightly less efficient overall, but he can get you that tough fade away over two defenders. That deep three with the clock winding down....whatever crazy ass shot your team needs in a tough spot, Gay is much better at that than most wing players in the league.

    The biggest problem with Gay is his current salary level. But again, if he were making 12-13 million a year, that's low for a guy among a select group of wings who can be that type of "tough situation" scorer, pretty much all of whom are max players.
    Spot on here. What gets lost if you only look at stats is what kind of shots these guys are taking and making. Of the three you mentioned, only Gay is effective at creating his own shot, which people arguing against Gay always seem to forget. His ability to create his own shot is a rare skill in the NBA. Maybe if Smith was more committed to his post game he could be creating his own shots too, but he is way too fond of long jump shots and 3's, which he is atrocious at (he's been shooting them for years so it's not something likely to be fixed). Just look at their shot charts from last year. Gay is average to above average from basically everywhere on the floor. Smith is below average almost everywhere and only above average under the basket.

    To those arguing Iggy is better on offense due to his TS% need to realize he only scored 13pts a game, and Rudy scored over 5 more points per game than him. They have basically the same 3pt numbers (attempts and makes) and get to the line the same amount of times, but Gay is an excellent FT shooter and Iggy is terrible (57.4%), so Iggy can't be counted on to hit FT's in late game situations. If Iggy was taking the same amount of FGA as Gay I'm sure his TS% would start to plummet as he is another player that is only above average under the basket and has trouble creating for himself.

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    • #32
      Xixak wrote: View Post
      We could legitimately extend Gay then max Love and/or Rondo in 2015.

      Rondo
      DeRozan
      Gay
      Love
      Valanciunas

      Is a very dangerous team.
      If we had both Love and JV I'm not sure if the other team would get a single rebound. I'm interested to see how Rondo does this year with all the big 3 gone. Not sure if he's really a max-ish level guy or a player who looked better due to his surroundings. It's his team now so no excuses.

      Comment


      • #33
        Primer wrote: View Post
        Spot on here. What gets lost if you only look at stats is what kind of shots these guys are taking and making. Of the three you mentioned, only Gay is effective at creating his own shot, which people arguing against Gay always seem to forget. His ability to create his own shot is a rare skill in the NBA. Maybe if Smith was more committed to his post game he could be creating his own shots too, but he is way too fond of long jump shots and 3's, which he is atrocious at (he's been shooting them for years so it's not something likely to be fixed). Just look at their shot charts from last year. Gay is average to above average from basically everywhere on the floor. Smith is below average almost everywhere and only above average under the basket.

        To those arguing Iggy is better on offense due to his TS% need to realize he only scored 13pts a game, and Rudy scored over 5 more points per game than him. They have basically the same 3pt numbers (attempts and makes) and get to the line the same amount of times, but Gay is an excellent FT shooter and Iggy is terrible (57.4%), so Iggy can't be counted on to hit FT's in late game situations. If Iggy was taking the same amount of FGA as Gay I'm sure his TS% would start to plummet as he is another player that is only above average under the basket and has trouble creating for himself.
        This whole post is bang on.

        I'm so sick of people going on and on about efficiency without looking at context. Shot-creators are going to be less efficient than spot up shooters/guys who take only high % shots and finish plays. This is why I lol hard when people suggest trading DeRozan or Gay for guys like Redick or Jared Dudley. They're efficient cause all they do is take uncontested, high percentage shots. You ask one of those guys or Iguodala to take the ball and go create points in isolations and you'd see their TS%s plummet to the low 40s.

        Basketball isn't baseball. Some of these stat-geeks need to get that through their skulls.

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        • #34
          Xixak wrote: View Post
          This whole post is bang on.

          I'm so sick of people going on and on about efficiency without looking at context. Shot-creators are going to be less efficient than spot up shooters/guys who take only high % shots and finish plays. This is why I lol hard when people suggest trading DeRozan or Gay for guys like Redick or Jared Dudley. They're efficient cause all they do is take uncontested, high percentage shots. You ask one of those guys or Iguodala to take the ball and go create points in isolations and you'd see their TS%s plummet to the low 40s.

          Basketball isn't baseball. Some of these stat-geeks need to get that through their skulls.
          Preach brother!!! Also, the funny thing about stat-geeks is that often when confronted with naked stats that don't support their opinion, they then suddenly rise up with "context".

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          • #35
            Xixak wrote: View Post
            I don't see Gay turning down a 4yr/14M extension. Then you're only paying 23M for him and DeMar which is more than ok for one of the league's best wing tandems. If Gay isn't playing at a high level then you just let him walk or orchestrate a S&T.

            We'd have around 30M to play with in 2015 FA with DeMar, Gay, Val, Ross, Acy, Novak on the roster. With guys like Love, Rondo and Aldridge available that's a great position to be in.

            I also expect tons of teams to blow their loads in 2014 after striking out on LBJ/Melo and the other stars. We might be positioned to secure 2 max level players.
            Only paying him and Derozan $23 million?

            That's the problem with this team. Players who are making the most money don't really affect winning all that much.

            One of the best wing tandems in the league? Based on what?

            Spending money on big name FA's to come to Toronto?

            When has that ever happened? How do you get players like Aldridge or Love to come here when this team is a lottery team or an 8th seed in a weak conference?

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            • #36
              What is the point of keeping a roster together that is no where near close to a contender but is capped out?

              I think it's actually better to get a top 4 pick who might turn out to be a fringe all-star, but under a controlled salary than actually paying a player who is not even a fringe all-star at this point of his career (Hiya Rudy) like a superstar.

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              • #37
                sleepz wrote: View Post
                Only paying him and Derozan $23 million?

                Yes only, as in a bit more than 1/3 of the projected cap.

                That's the problem with this team. Players who are making the most money don't really affect winning all that much.

                Yup DeMar and Gay are losers *rolls eyes*.

                One of the best wing tandems in the league? Based on what?

                The only teams with better ones are Indiana (if Granger is healthy), Miami, New York and Houston. So yes it's one of the better wing tandems in the league. And of those 5 it's the 2nd youngest.

                Spending money on big name FA's to come to Toronto?

                When has that ever happened? How do you get players like Aldridge or Love to come here when this team is a lottery team or an 8th seed in a weak conference?

                This is precisely what Leiweke said he's looking to change. That's why we shouldn't be tanking and should be looking to place as highly in the playoffs as possible. There's no reason why we can't be the 6 seed next year. And maybe even 4th the next year after the Nets get older and NY possibly loses Melo. An all-star might see that as a low pressure situation but also with the possibility to progress deep into the playoffs and make max dollars while being the star of the team.

                This could be greatly helped by Gay, DD (least likely too many good guards) or Val making the ASG, which will only happen if we're WINNING.
                Bold.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Primer wrote: View Post
                  Spot on here. What gets lost if you only look at stats is what kind of shots these guys are taking and making. Of the three you mentioned, only Gay is effective at creating his own shot, which people arguing against Gay always seem to forget. His ability to create his own shot is a rare skill in the NBA.
                  Great context and comments on how to better use the stats. Let me ask, how do you know that Gay is creating his shots (and the others don't)? I don't watch enough of Iggy or Smith to comment but are you using a stat or from how they play in game.
                  Last edited by rap; Thu Jul 25, 2013, 06:22 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    A bit of an aside: ESPN Insider has their current projections of the Eastern Conference placing Toronto at 11th:

                    1. Miami
                    2. Brooklyn
                    3. Chicago
                    4. Indiana
                    5. New York
                    6. Atlanta
                    7. Washington
                    8. Cleveland
                    9. Milwaukee
                    10. Detroit
                    11. Toronto
                    12. Orlando
                    13. Boston
                    14. Charlotte
                    15. Philly

                    Their writeup basically sums up as: "If Jonas turns into a monster, the Raptors can make a playoff push. If he doesn't, a tank is in order."

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      rap wrote: View Post
                      Great context and comments on how to better use the stats. Let me ask, how do you know that Gay is creating his shots (and the others don't)? I don't watch enough of Iggy or Smith to comment but are you using a stat or from how they play in game.
                      It's from watching them play. I love using stats, but I think a lot of guys only look at stats and actually watch very little basketball.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        magoon wrote: View Post
                        A bit of an aside: ESPN Insider has their current projections of the Eastern Conference placing Toronto at 11th:

                        1. Miami
                        2. Brooklyn
                        3. Chicago
                        4. Indiana
                        5. New York
                        6. Atlanta
                        7. Washington
                        8. Cleveland
                        9. Milwaukee
                        10. Detroit
                        11. Toronto
                        12. Orlando
                        13. Boston
                        14. Charlotte
                        15. Philly

                        Their writeup basically sums up as: "If Jonas turns into a monster, the Raptors can make a playoff push. If he doesn't, a tank is in order."
                        Not really a surprise. 7-11 are all the teams being speculated on in the forums as battling for the final 2 playoff spots. 12-15 are the teams widely considered to be tanking (or in the Bobcats case, still terrible). I think you could rearrange 7-11 any way you want and it would look plausible. Maybe even throw Atlanta in there too, but I'm a firm believer that they got better this offseason, or at least will be as good as they were last year.

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                        • #42
                          Primer wrote: View Post
                          Spot on here. What gets lost if you only look at stats is what kind of shots these guys are taking and making. Of the three you mentioned, only Gay is effective at creating his own shot, which people arguing against Gay always seem to forget. His ability to create his own shot is a rare skill in the NBA. Maybe if Smith was more committed to his post game he could be creating his own shots too, but he is way too fond of long jump shots and 3's, which he is atrocious at (he's been shooting them for years so it's not something likely to be fixed). Just look at their shot charts from last year. Gay is average to above average from basically everywhere on the floor. Smith is below average almost everywhere and only above average under the basket.

                          To those arguing Iggy is better on offense due to his TS% need to realize he only scored 13pts a game, and Rudy scored over 5 more points per game than him. They have basically the same 3pt numbers (attempts and makes) and get to the line the same amount of times, but Gay is an excellent FT shooter and Iggy is terrible (57.4%), so Iggy can't be counted on to hit FT's in late game situations. If Iggy was taking the same amount of FGA as Gay I'm sure his TS% would start to plummet as he is another player that is only above average under the basket and has trouble creating for himself.
                          Yet you don't look at the FG attempts per game! Iggy averaged 11 shots per game while Gay averaged 18 per game. He take 7 extra shots just to score 5 more points. You make it sound like just because Gay has a higher PPG than Iggy, he's more efficient at shooting which isn't true given that he take 7 more shots than Iggy just to score 5 points.

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                          • #43
                            Blacklash2k4 wrote: View Post
                            Yet you don't look at the FG attempts per game! Iggy averaged 11 shots per game while Gay averaged 18 per game. He take 7 extra shots just to score 5 more points. You make it sound like just because Gay has a higher PPG than Iggy, he's more efficient at shooting which isn't true given that he take 7 more shots than Iggy just to score 5 points.
                            Ok stop this argument. Rudy Gay is a better offensive player than Iggy. His just more offensively polished.
                            @Chr1st1anL

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Xixak wrote: View Post
                              This whole post is bang on.

                              I'm so sick of people going on and on about efficiency without looking at context. Shot-creators are going to be less efficient than spot up shooters/guys who take only high % shots and finish plays. This is why I lol hard when people suggest trading DeRozan or Gay for guys like Redick or Jared Dudley. They're efficient cause all they do is take uncontested, high percentage shots. You ask one of those guys or Iguodala to take the ball and go create points in isolations and you'd see their TS%s plummet to the low 40s.

                              Basketball isn't baseball. Some of these stat-geeks need to get that through their skulls.
                              Firstly, you're making up bullshit on Redick trades involving Demar and Gay! No one in this forum has suggested trading DeRozan for Redick in a trade proposal outside of Tenforthewin which doesn't count because he's just here to troll. I've only seen two trades that involve Dudley which I agree isn't ideal, but both of them include Demar. The whole premise behind those trades are because it is true that there is a redundancy in having both Demar and Gay who are both unable to hit outside shots efficiently. So having a spot up shooter that takes high percentage open shots is ideal since it frees up more Gay to do what he does. Just to put it out there, I'm not an advocate of trading either.

                              Secondly, you're comparing people of massively different contract levels and massively different talent levels! Spot up shooters like Dudley and Redick will never ever see a check for $10+ million per year. The only spot up shooter that comes to mind that made a shit ton of money is Ray Allen when he was with the Celtics which is easily understandable since he was playing on a whole other level to Dudley and Redick. He was one of the best 3 points shooter in NBA history, and clutch. You basically using Dudley and Redick as an example to make your point seem valid which is flawed for the varies reason. Obviously if they tried to create points in isolation their TS% would plummet because that's not their game! On the other hand, Gay's game is pure straight up isolation shooter.

                              Fianlly, stats and analytic are the only way for us fans to judge especially since we don't have access to clips and the majority of fans don't have access/subscriptions to advanced stats provided from sites such as SynergySports.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Blacklash2k4 wrote: View Post
                                \ No one in this forum has suggested trading DeRozan for Redick in a trade proposal outside of Tenforthewin which doesn't count because he's just here to troll.
                                does troll mean enlighten or dominate in your world.

                                haha, sorry.

                                i would like to point out that when iggy came into the league he was a very gifted offensive player to the extent that the 6ers chose him over iverson. i would prefer iggy to gay 10 out of 10 times. i think gay has a larger offensive repertoire though.

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