I don't think Lowry is traded this season. I'm not a GM so this is all 100% opinion based. Look through the league. Who has assets to throw away on a player that may or may not return next season?
When looking at teams with injured PGs:
Boston has Rondo back.
Brooklyn has Williams back.
Chicago has lost Rose but the Bulls are just $500k below luxury tax and don't have the required contracts to take on Lowry without going in to tax.
Houston did fine without Beverly and now he is back.
Clippers - doing fine without Paul, limited assets to make numbers work, no picks to trade.
Miami - Chalmers is back, no pick to trade, no assets to make numbers work.
New Orleans are likely to tank like no other team has done since Golden State (injuries have given them no choice).
OKC - doing fine without Westbrook
Phoenix are going to have Bledsoe back, tough to make numbers work without 3rd team or more coming from Raptors.
Then look at playoff bubble teams:
Charlotte has Walker who will be back soon.
Detroit has Jennings - would Raps want him? I hope not.
Cleveland - Irving/Jack
Washington - Wall
Memphis - Conley
Denver - Lawson
Atlanta - Teague with Mack doing well as backup and Schroder as long term prospect
Then there are bad/tank teams with no hope outside of ping pong balls:
Philly
Boston
Milwaukee
Orlando
Then there are the teams who are at bottom of standings with PG set:
Utah - Burke
Sacramento - Thomas
Then there are teams at the top or firmly in playoffs who are set:
San Antonio
Indiana
Portland
Dallas
Golden State
So who does that leave?
Minnesota: connection with Adelman, starter who does not play in the 4th quarter.... but no picks and limited assets in trade. What does that do for Toronto?
New York: Dolan put the kibosh on that. Maybe things change as they sit 10 games under .500 at half way point of season?
LA Lakers. LA Lakers. LA Lakers. LA Lakers. But not in season.
They are going to be a prime sign and trade destination for Lowry. Why?
1) they are looking to get back to winning next year. You think Kobe wants to play out last 2 years without a chance to win?
2) Perfect trade mate in Toronto with Nash (not because of passport but because of $9.7M contract i.e. about what Lowry would likely make). Lakers with Lowry around $9M and Kobe at $23M have about $30M for free agency. Deng, big offer to Monroe.... just throwing out possibilities.
3) What player wouldn't want to play for Lakers? What PG wouldn't want to play for D'Antoni?
4) Lakers pick. They are likely to get high draft pick this season. High draft picks take up cap space and don't always contribute to winning immediately. Lakers will be in win now mode. So S&T Lowry for Nash with Lakers pick going to Raptors and some 2nd round picks going to LA (low cap hold, lots of flexibility in signing).
5) Lakers rumoured to have lots of interest a couple of years ago when Gasol to Houston was speculated. At that time supposedly Houston refused to include Lowry in deal which was hold up. All rumours and hearsay of course.
I'm still all for building through higher end of draft. I just think it is going to be done in '13-14 on the road less traveled. '14-15 will likely be more of a traditional route and I think the '15-16 season is when the Raptors are looking to be real threats with an eye on '16 free agency.
When looking at teams with injured PGs:
Boston has Rondo back.
Brooklyn has Williams back.
Chicago has lost Rose but the Bulls are just $500k below luxury tax and don't have the required contracts to take on Lowry without going in to tax.
Houston did fine without Beverly and now he is back.
Clippers - doing fine without Paul, limited assets to make numbers work, no picks to trade.
Miami - Chalmers is back, no pick to trade, no assets to make numbers work.
New Orleans are likely to tank like no other team has done since Golden State (injuries have given them no choice).
OKC - doing fine without Westbrook
Phoenix are going to have Bledsoe back, tough to make numbers work without 3rd team or more coming from Raptors.
Then look at playoff bubble teams:
Charlotte has Walker who will be back soon.
Detroit has Jennings - would Raps want him? I hope not.
Cleveland - Irving/Jack
Washington - Wall
Memphis - Conley
Denver - Lawson
Atlanta - Teague with Mack doing well as backup and Schroder as long term prospect
Then there are bad/tank teams with no hope outside of ping pong balls:
Philly
Boston
Milwaukee
Orlando
Then there are the teams who are at bottom of standings with PG set:
Utah - Burke
Sacramento - Thomas
Then there are teams at the top or firmly in playoffs who are set:
San Antonio
Indiana
Portland
Dallas
Golden State
So who does that leave?
Minnesota: connection with Adelman, starter who does not play in the 4th quarter.... but no picks and limited assets in trade. What does that do for Toronto?
New York: Dolan put the kibosh on that. Maybe things change as they sit 10 games under .500 at half way point of season?
LA Lakers. LA Lakers. LA Lakers. LA Lakers. But not in season.
They are going to be a prime sign and trade destination for Lowry. Why?
1) they are looking to get back to winning next year. You think Kobe wants to play out last 2 years without a chance to win?
2) Perfect trade mate in Toronto with Nash (not because of passport but because of $9.7M contract i.e. about what Lowry would likely make). Lakers with Lowry around $9M and Kobe at $23M have about $30M for free agency. Deng, big offer to Monroe.... just throwing out possibilities.
3) What player wouldn't want to play for Lakers? What PG wouldn't want to play for D'Antoni?
4) Lakers pick. They are likely to get high draft pick this season. High draft picks take up cap space and don't always contribute to winning immediately. Lakers will be in win now mode. So S&T Lowry for Nash with Lakers pick going to Raptors and some 2nd round picks going to LA (low cap hold, lots of flexibility in signing).
5) Lakers rumoured to have lots of interest a couple of years ago when Gasol to Houston was speculated. At that time supposedly Houston refused to include Lowry in deal which was hold up. All rumours and hearsay of course.
I'm still all for building through higher end of draft. I just think it is going to be done in '13-14 on the road less traveled. '14-15 will likely be more of a traditional route and I think the '15-16 season is when the Raptors are looking to be real threats with an eye on '16 free agency.
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