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Raptors - a playoff team in 2013-14?

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  • #76
    I agree with the general sentiment that there are either five or six locks, and then an additional group of about six more fringe playoff teams. And overall, there are a lot of teams that improved more than we did. But trying to figure out how exactly that translates in the standings is not easy. I'd say that there's more parity in the eastern conference than we've seen in recent years. Even the dregs like Charlotte have made significant improvements, and Washington may improve simply through having healthy players. Philly and Orlando will both be bad, but not historically bad like Charlotte has been the last couple years. All of which means that there are simply fewer easy wins to go around. Last year there was a 20-win spread between the sixth and twelfth place teams. This year we may see standings at the end of the season where there are only 10 wins or less separating sixth and twelfth. (Although some teams in the thick of it may elect to blow themselves up mid-season and angle for the draft, which would increase the spread.) If that is the case and the division is much tighter, then predicting who makes and who doesn't is really just a toss-up. That increased parity is the closest I'm going to come to any sort of prediction for next year.

    I think I'm more of an optimist than most in that I actually like our core, but I can't bring myself to give the Raptors more than a 33% chance of making the playoffs this year, based on where guys are at now and what other teams have done. I can envision scenarios where everything goes right and the Raptors not only exceed the other fringe teams but actually climb into the 5 spot, but these are no more likely than scenarios where everything goes wrong (or right, depending on your enthusiasm for the draft) and the Raptors drop to the bottom of the conference.

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    • #77
      Primer wrote: View Post
      Atlanta was a playoff lock last year with arguably a worse team. If Lou Williams and Zaza hadn't gotten hurt near the end of the season they probably would have been a 4 seed. They subtracted Josh Smith and Zaza, but added Millsap, Brand, and Carroll. They also retained Korver, the best shooter in the league. If you watched Atlanta you know Smith was a big help on defense and generally a nightmare of inefficiency on offense. Swapping him out with Millsap gives you a huge boost in efficiency without losing too much on D. Millsap also has less turnovers and is a better offensive rebounder than Smith, two stats that count a lot more towards wins than blocked shots. If you think Atlanta is taking a step back this year you are going to be sadly mistaken.

      Also, if you're a fan of advanced stats, Atlanta's win shares have gone up significantly from last year with the new players swapped out for the old. For instance, Millsap has a WS of 7.6 versus Smith's WS of 4.2. That's 3 more wins right there.
      Who the fuck is Carroll? Dude... just look at their roster for a few minutes... Their starting five is:

      Jeff Teague
      Lou Williams
      Kyle Korver
      Paul Millsap
      Al Horford

      Their top 3 guys off the bench are Elton Brand, Ivan Johnson and a rookie.

      I don't even know what else to say. Just look!
      You come at the King, you best not miss.

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      • #78
        Fully wrote: View Post
        What? Andrew Bynum has more playoff experience than our entire roster put together.
        Probably missed more games in the last 6 years than our entire roster put together, lol

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        • #79
          p00ka wrote: View Post
          Probably missed more games in the last 6 years than our entire roster put together, lol
          Yet he has more rings than our entire roster combined.

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          • #80
            JordanMariam14 wrote: View Post
            Yet he has more rings than our entire roster combined.
            Hurts!

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            • #81
              JordanMariam14 wrote: View Post
              Yet he has more rings than our entire roster combined.
              So does Adam Morrison. Lots of guys with rings.

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              • #82
                p00ka wrote: View Post
                Probably missed more games in the last 6 years than our entire roster put together, lol
                You could be right about that. I'd be nervous as a Cavs supporter this year having to rely on his health. But that doesn't make the claim that the Raptors have more playoff experience than Cleveland any more credible, which is what we were originally talking about. Varajeao and Bynum have 17 playoff series wins between them, the Raptors roster has less than half that as a whole.
                Last edited by Fully; Mon Jul 22, 2013, 03:08 PM.

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                • #83
                  Fully wrote: View Post
                  You could be right about that. I'd be nervous as a Cavs supporter this year having to rely on his health. But that doesn't make the claim that the Raptors have more playoff experience than Cleveland any more credible, which is what we were originally talking about. Varajeao and Bynum have 17 playoff series wins between them, the Raptors roster has less than half that as a whole.
                  True, and I guess my point is that until he's even healthy enough to even play in a playoff game, it doesn't mean much. And I don't think he's a motivator that's going impart playoff wisdom on anybody. He seems to have had motivation issues of his own.

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                  • #84
                    Nilanka wrote: View Post
                    By "critical thinking", I meant analyzing all 15 Eastern Conference teams with equal scrutiny, rather than assuming everything will go right for Toronto, while everything will go wrong for others.
                    Scrutiny is fine. I get scrutiny. It has less to do with everything going wrong for others than it does for thing to not go wrong for the Raps. You have to admit that this team has had major problems with injuries to key players the last few seasons. For me, the only leap of faith (as far as whether they will make the playoffs this year or not) is that this team can stay healthy.
                    Welp, that sucked.

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                    • #85
                      Milwaukee Detroit and Cleveland all play in Chicago and Indys division might be harder for them to make it
                      No Dissrespect...
                      With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility.. You hear me BC?

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                      • #86
                        Afro_Daddy wrote: View Post
                        Milwaukee Detroit and Cleveland all play in Chicago and Indys division might be harder for them to make it
                        Good point. Didn't think of that

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                        • #87
                          Ya I was thinking we should be 3rd in our division this year which is what Boston was last year. The central is tough and they can't all make it. My bet is cleavland is 3rd baring injuries Detroit comes close while the bucks free fall now that the report is out on there young big men. Atlanta and Washington could switch. Still all these teams could be better than us still no matter there standings in there own division. Just a different perspective
                          No Dissrespect...
                          With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility.. You hear me BC?

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                          • #88
                            Yes I know atlanta and Washington are in the southeast with Miami
                            No Dissrespect...
                            With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility.. You hear me BC?

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                            • #89
                              c_bcm wrote: View Post
                              Scrutiny is fine. I get scrutiny. It has less to do with everything going wrong for others than it does for thing to not go wrong for the Raps. You have to admit that this team has had major problems with injuries to key players the last few seasons. For me, the only leap of faith (as far as whether they will make the playoffs this year or not) is that this team can stay healthy.
                              The exception is Demar. Started every game for the last 3 seasons. He missed 5 in his rookie season, but I don't know if those were injury related or CD-DNPs.

                              This is one thing I think people over look when analyzing production versus salary. I've actually been meaning to do a thread on it, but don't have the time atm.

                              But I digress
                              "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

                              "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

                              "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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                              • #90
                                Season is a write-off. Even if the team makes the playoffs, it's not building towards anything. If there ceiling is 7th/ 8th it's gonna be blown up
                                If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

                                Sometimes, I like to buy a book on CD and listen to it, while reading music.

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